COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 15, 2020

Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. My goal is to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R program code is
available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. The daily analysis are available at https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7rowrt2AjGpWm_frnEQ?e=KBcNbh.
You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric to help understand the epidemic. I occasionally point
out misrepresentations by government officials. I occasionally point out where government recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning, except Sundays. My analysis my be delayed by my clinical responsibilities as a Stanford anesthesiologist.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
• USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv
• USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
• Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function): log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 =
𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 − 𝑒−𝑘 𝑡 . This is a naïve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50%
rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases (red dots in the figures).
Deaths are predicted from a log linear regression of deaths over the past 21 days. For the US, and individual states, I am also including the 98% prediction
interval from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/).
2. The rate of change in daily cases and deaths is the slope of delta cases / day over the last 14 days, divided by the average number of cases.
Locations
The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, locations of interest to friends and colleagues, or countries in the news (e.g.,
China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or with significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada, Mexico). Locations are easy to add.
Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind.
Steve Shafer
steven.shafer@Stanford.edu

2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual
(points)
/
Predicted
(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases
/
Day
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
Deaths on July 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based
on a log linear regression
of deaths over past 21
days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Cumulative cases
(yesterday’s cases)
and cumulative deaths
(yesterday’s deaths)
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Purple wedge: 98% ensemble
prediction interval from COVID-19
Forecast Hub (USA and US
States only)

Worldwide
33,693,290
1,036,721
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Worldwide projection as of 2020-09-15
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Cases
/
Day
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 29,190,110 (196,017) -- Deaths: 927,233 (3,376) -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
2020-09-15 Summary: 3

USA
7,159,545
209,778
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-09-15
Mother's
Day
Memorial
Day
July
4th
July
15,
2020
Labor
Day
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases
/
Day
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 6,553,652 (34,079) -- Deaths: 194,493 (422) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: -1.0% Cases, -1.4% Deaths
2020-09-15 Summary: 4

Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble
116,436
2,226
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam (Population = 328 MM)
Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble projection as of 2020-09-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
80
Cases
/
Day
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 102,843 (374) -- Deaths: 1,915 (11) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: -3.3% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
2020-09-15 Summary: 5

Western Europe
2,454,931
157,735
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and the UK (Population = 344MM)
Western Europe projection as of 2020-09-15
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases
/
Day
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 2,108,040 (57,664) -- Deaths: 156,050 (194) -- Case Mortality: 7.4% -- Daily Change: +3.4% Cases, +0.6% Deaths
2020-09-15 Summary: 6

Worldwide cases
USA
India
Brazil
Russia
Peru
Colombia
Mexico
South
Africa
Spain
Argentina
Chile
France
Iran
United
Kingdom
Bangladesh
Saudi
Arabia
Pakistan
Iraq
Turkey
Italy
Philippines
Germany
Indonesia
Ukraine
Israel
Canada
Bolivia
Ecuador
Kazakhstan
Romania
Dominican
Republic
Egypt
Belgium
China
Morocco
Netherlands
Sweden
Guatemala
Japan
Poland
Belarus
Honduras
Ethiopia
Portugal
Venezuela
Nigeria
Nepal
Algeria
Uzbekistan
Switzerland
Ghana
Kyrgyzstan
Afghanistan
Azerbaijan
Czech
Republic
Kenya
Austria
Serbia
Paraguay
El
Salvador
Australia
Libya
South
Korea
Denmark
Cameroon
USA
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Total
cases
to
date
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-09-15 Summary: 7

Worldwide cases
Chile
Peru
Israel
Brazil
USA
Colombia
Spain
Argentina
South
Africa
Bolivia
Saudi
Arabia
Dominican
Republic
Sweden
Iraq
Honduras
Belgium
Kyrgyzstan
Ecuador
Belarus
Russia
Kazakhstan
France
Switzerland
Guatemala
United
Kingdom
Iran
Mexico
Portugal
Netherlands
Italy
Romania
Azerbaijan
Serbia
Canada
India
Austria
Paraguay
Turkey
El
Salvador
Libya
Denmark
Czech
Republic
Ukraine
Germany
Philippines
Morocco
Bulgaria
Venezuela
Bangladesh
Nepal
Poland
Ghana
Uzbekistan
Pakistan
Finland
Algeria
Afghanistan
Hungary
Australia
Greece
Tajikistan
Egypt
Zambia
Cameroon
Senegal
USA
None
1 in 200
1 in 100
1 in 67
1 in 50
1 in 40
1 in 33
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Total
cases
to
date
Worldwide cases
2020-09-15 Summary: 8

Average new cases over past 7 days
Israel
Spain
Argentina
Peru
France
Colombia
Iraq
Brazil
Libya
Czech
Republic
USA
Paraguay
Chile
Bolivia
Belgium
India
Netherlands
Austria
Dominican
Republic
Honduras
Hungary
Ukraine
Morocco
Denmark
Romania
Portugal
Switzerland
United
Kingdom
Mexico
Guatemala
Nepal
Venezuela
Russia
Philippines
Iran
South
Africa
Tunisia
Saudi
Arabia
Italy
Canada
Slovakia
Greece
Jordan
Turkey
Sweden
Belarus
Uzbekistan
Germany
Bulgaria
Azerbaijan
Indonesia
El
Salvador
Kyrgyzstan
Poland
Bangladesh
Zambia
Serbia
Ethiopia
Finland
Algeria
Ecuador
Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Uganda
Tajikistan
USA
None
1 in 10,000
1 in 5,000
1 in 3,333
1 in 2,500
1 in 2,000
1 in 1,667
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Average
cases
/
day
Average new cases over past 7 days
2020-09-15 Summary: 9

Worldwide deaths
USA
Brazil
India
Mexico
United
Kingdom
Italy
France
Peru
Spain
Iran
Colombia
Russia
South
Africa
Chile
Argentina
Ecuador
Belgium
Germany
Canada
Indonesia
Iraq
Bolivia
Turkey
Pakistan
Netherlands
Sweden
Egypt
Bangladesh
China
Philippines
Saudi
Arabia
Romania
Ukraine
Guatemala
Poland
Honduras
Switzerland
Dominican
Republic
Portugal
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Morocco
Japan
Afghanistan
Israel
Nigeria
Kyrgyzstan
Ethiopia
Sudan
Australia
El
Salvador
Austria
Belarus
Serbia
Bulgaria
Hungary
Denmark
Kenya
Yemen
Azerbaijan
Paraguay
Venezuela
Czech
Republic
Cameroon
Uzbekistan
USA
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Total
deaths
to
date
Worldwide deaths
2020-09-15 Summary: 10

Worldwide deaths
Peru
Belgium
Bolivia
Ecuador
Spain
Chile
United
Kingdom
Brazil
Sweden
Mexico
Italy
USA
Colombia
France
Netherlands
Iran
South
Africa
Argentina
Canada
Honduras
Switzerland
Iraq
Guatemala
Dominican
Republic
Kyrgyzstan
Romania
Portugal
Israel
Saudi
Arabia
Russia
Germany
Denmark
El
Salvador
Kazakhstan
Bulgaria
Serbia
Turkey
Austria
Belarus
Paraguay
Ukraine
Azerbaijan
India
Egypt
Hungary
Finland
Libya
Poland
Afghanistan
Algeria
Philippines
Morocco
Czech
Republic
Australia
Indonesia
Pakistan
Sudan
Bangladesh
Greece
Zambia
Yemen
Nicaragua
Haiti
Cameroon
Senegal
USA
None
1 in 5,000
1 in 2,500
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,250
1 in 1,000
1 in 833
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Total
deaths
to
date
Worldwide deaths
2020-09-15 Summary: 11

Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Ecuador
Bolivia
Argentina
Colombia
Peru
Mexico
Brazil
Chile
Iraq
USA
Israel
Iran
Paraguay
Dominican
Republic
Libya
Romania
South
Africa
Spain
Honduras
Guatemala
Ukraine
Saudi
Arabia
Philippines
Bulgaria
Morocco
India
Turkey
Russia
Belarus
El
Salvador
France
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Portugal
Czech
Republic
Austria
Australia
Nepal
Venezuela
Greece
Tunisia
Poland
Zambia
Azerbaijan
Algeria
Belgium
Hungary
Bangladesh
Uzbekistan
Switzerland
Egypt
Jordan
Angola
Italy
Zimbabwe
United
Kingdom
Togo
Serbia
Ethiopia
Sweden
Syria
Netherlands
Denmark
Canada
Japan
USA
None
1 in 100,000
1 in 50,000
1 in 33,333
1 in 25,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Average
deaths
/
day
Average daily deaths over past 7 days
2020-09-15 Summary: 12

Mortality Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
US
Case
Rate
Mortality
Mortality Type:
13 day rolling median
Cumulative
Daily Raw
Daily vs. Cumulative US Case Rate Mortality
Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated
2020-09-15 Summary: 13

Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-09-15
2020-09-15 Summary: 14

Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
Percent
of
Peak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
2020-09-15 Summary: 15

Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-09-15
2020-09-15 Summary: 16

Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
Percent
of
Peak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
2020-09-15 Summary: 17

Change in cases vs change in deaths
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
-6
-3
0
3
6
-30 -20 -10 0
Change in cases (%/day)
Change
in
deaths
(%/day)
Change in cases vs change in deaths over last 14 days as of 2020-09-15
2020-09-15 Summary: 18

Total US COVID-19 Cases
California
Texas
Florida
New
York
Georgia
Illinois
Arizona
New
Jersey
North
Carolina
Tennessee
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
Alabama
Ohio
Virginia
South
Carolina
Massachusetts
Michigan
Maryland
Indiana
Missouri
Mississippi
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Washington
Iowa
Nevada
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Colorado
Utah
Kentucky
Connecticut
Kansas
Nebraska
Idaho
Oregon
New
Mexico
Rhode
Island
Delaware
South
Dakota
North
Dakota
District
of
Columbia
West
Virginia
Hawaii
Montana
New
Hampshire
Alaska
Maine
Wyoming
Vermont
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Total
cases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.47, p governor: 0.82. NB: association != causation.
2020-09-15 Summary: 19

Louisiana
Florida
Mississippi
Arizona
Alabama
Georgia
South
Carolina
Tennessee
Nevada
Iowa
Texas
Arkansas
New
York
New
Jersey
Rhode
Island
Illinois
North
Dakota
District
of
Columbia
Nebraska
Idaho
Delaware
California
Maryland
South
Dakota
Massachusetts
Utah
Oklahoma
North
Carolina
Missouri
Kansas
Indiana
Virginia
Wisconsin
Connecticut
Minnesota
Kentucky
New
Mexico
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Washington
Alaska
Montana
Hawaii
Wyoming
West
Virginia
Oregon
New
Hampshire
Maine
Vermont
None
1 in 100
1 in 50
1 in 33
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Total
Cases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
2020-09-15 Summary: 20

Average US COVID-19 cases over the past
7 days
North
Dakota
South
Dakota
Missouri
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Iowa
Wisconsin
South
Carolina
Tennessee
Alabama
Nebraska
Kansas
Utah
Georgia
Louisiana
Mississippi
Illinois
Idaho
Kentucky
Indiana
Texas
Delaware
Florida
Virginia
North
Carolina
Rhode
Island
Alaska
Montana
West
Virginia
Minnesota
Maryland
Nevada
Michigan
Ohio
California
Hawaii
Wyoming
District
of
Columbia
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Colorado
Arizona
Washington
New
Mexico
New
Jersey
Oregon
New
York
New
Hampshire
Maine
Vermont
Massachusetts
None
1 in 10,000
1 in 5,000
1 in 3,333
1 in 2,500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
New
Cases
/
Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days
2020-09-15 Summary: 21

Total US COVID-19 Deaths
New
York
New
Jersey
Texas
California
Florida
Massachusetts
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Georgia
Arizona
Louisiana
Connecticut
Ohio
Maryland
Indiana
South
Carolina
North
Carolina
Virginia
Mississippi
Alabama
Tennessee
Washington
Colorado
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
Iowa
Wisconsin
Rhode
Island
Kentucky
Arkansas
Oklahoma
New
Mexico
Delaware
District
of
Columbia
Kansas
Oregon
Nebraska
New
Hampshire
Utah
Idaho
West
Virginia
South
Dakota
North
Dakota
Montana
Maine
Hawaii
Vermont
Alaska
Wyoming
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Total
Deaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
2020-09-15 Summary: 22

New
Jersey
New
York
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Louisiana
Rhode
Island
Mississippi
District
of
Columbia
Arizona
Michigan
Illinois
Maryland
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Georgia
South
Carolina
Florida
Indiana
Texas
Alabama
Nevada
New
Mexico
Iowa
Ohio
California
Minnesota
Colorado
Arkansas
Virginia
New
Hampshire
Tennessee
North
Carolina
Missouri
Washington
Kentucky
Idaho
Oklahoma
Nebraska
North
Dakota
South
Dakota
Wisconsin
Kansas
West
Virginia
Utah
Montana
Oregon
Maine
Vermont
Wyoming
Hawaii
Alaska
None
1 in 2,000
1 in 1,000
1 in 667
1 in 500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Total
Deaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
2020-09-15 Summary: 23

Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past
7 days
Mississippi
Florida
South
Carolina
Louisiana
Tennessee
Arkansas
Georgia
Texas
Nevada
Kansas
Montana
Idaho
Rhode
Island
North
Dakota
Iowa
California
Nebraska
North
Carolina
West
Virginia
Alabama
Kentucky
Arizona
Ohio
Massachusetts
Oklahoma
South
Dakota
Illinois
Minnesota
Michigan
Indiana
Hawaii
New
Mexico
Missouri
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin
District
of
Columbia
Washington
Oregon
Maryland
New
Jersey
Connecticut
Utah
Colorado
Alaska
New
York
New
Hampshire
Maine
Vermont
Wyoming
None
1 in 1,000,000
1 in 500,000
1 in 333,333
1 in 250,000
1 in 200,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Deaths
/
Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days
2020-09-15 Summary: 24

Daily testing trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Daily
testing
from
min
to
max
Daily testing trends from min to max
Line = Friedman's supersmoother
2020-09-15 Summary: 25

Change in daily tests over past 14 days
Missouri
Minnesota
Maine
Hawaii
South
Carolina
Michigan
Connecticut
Wyoming
Illinois
South
Dakota
Kentucky
Ohio
Indiana
Rhode
Island
Washington
Oklahoma
Montana
Arkansas
North
Dakota
North
Carolina
Kansas
New
York
West
Virginia
Nebraska
New
Jersey
Mississippi
Iowa
Utah
Tennessee
Virginia
Delaware
New
Hampshire
Texas
District
of
Columbia
Colorado
California
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Georgia
New
Mexico
Louisiana
Wisconsin
Idaho
Florida
Alabama
Nevada
Arizona
Alaska
Massachusetts
Vermont
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Change
in
daily
tests
(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Change in daily tests over past 14 days
2020-09-15 Summary: 26

Percent Tested
Alaska
New
York
District
of
Columbia
Louisiana
New
Mexico
Connecticut
Illinois
Tennessee
New
Jersey
California
Michigan
Rhode
Island
North
Dakota
Massachusetts
Arkansas
West
Virginia
Delaware
Montana
Oklahoma
North
Carolina
Maine
Georgia
Vermont
Maryland
Wisconsin
Florida
Utah
Ohio
Kentucky
Minnesota
Iowa
Washington
South
Carolina
Mississippi
Alabama
Nevada
Nebraska
Virginia
Texas
South
Dakota
Missouri
Indiana
Hawaii
Arizona
New
Hampshire
Kansas
Idaho
Wyoming
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Colorado
0
20
40
60
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Percent
Tested
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Percent Tested
2020-09-15 Summary: 27

Percent of Positive COVID Tests
Arizona
Mississippi
Alabama
Florida
Idaho
South
Carolina
Texas
Nevada
Georgia
Kansas
Iowa
South
Dakota
Nebraska
Missouri
Indiana
Arkansas
Utah
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Louisiana
Virginia
Rhode
Island
Delaware
North
Dakota
Oklahoma
North
Carolina
Tennessee
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Massachusetts
New
Jersey
California
Kentucky
Illinois
Ohio
Wyoming
Washington
Oregon
New
York
District
of
Columbia
Hawaii
Connecticut
Michigan
New
Hampshire
New
Mexico
Montana
West
Virginia
Alaska
Maine
Vermont
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Percent
of
Positive
Tests
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Percent of Positive COVID Tests
2020-09-15 Summary: 28

Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fraction
positive
from
min
to
max
Positive fraction trends from min to max
2020-09-15 Summary: 29

Change in positive tests over past 14 days
North
Dakota
West
Virginia
Alaska
South
Dakota
Wisconsin
Montana
Oklahoma
Missouri
Kansas
Iowa
Utah
Idaho
Minnesota
Alabama
Kentucky
Arkansas
Nebraska
Oregon
Florida
Virginia
Tennessee
Mississippi
Delaware
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Indiana
Georgia
New
Mexico
South
Carolina
Colorado
Michigan
New
Hampshire
Wyoming
Louisiana
Texas
Ohio
Hawaii
California
Arizona
Washington
North
Carolina
Illinois
Vermont
Rhode
Island
New
Jersey
District
of
Columbia
New
York
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Maine
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Change
in
positive
tests
(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Change in positive tests over past 14 days
2020-09-15 Summary: 30

Change in tests vs change in positive tests
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
-4 -2 0 2
Change in tests (%/day)
Change
in
positive
tests
(%/day)
Change in tests vs change in positive tests last 14 days as of 2020-09-15
Size of the state font reflects the number of deaths over the past 7 days.
2020-09-15 Summary: 31

Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak
since February
Missouri
Montana
South
Dakota
West
Virginia
North
Dakota
Nebraska
Kentucky
Hawaii
Alaska
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Wyoming
Iowa
North
Carolina
Utah
Idaho
Virginia
Georgia
Kansas
Tennessee
Ohio
Indiana
Oregon
Wisconsin
Alabama
South
Carolina
Mississippi
Washington
California
Minnesota
Nevada
Louisiana
New
Mexico
Illinois
Texas
Florida
Rhode
Island
Colorado
District
of
Columbia
Delaware
Maryland
Maine
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Massachusetts
Vermont
New
Hampshire
New
Jersey
Connecticut
New
York
0
30
60
90
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Hospitalizations
(%
of
peak)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since February
2020-09-15 Summary: 32

Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizations
from
min
to
max
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
2020-09-15 Summary: 33

Change in hospitalizations over past 14
days
South
Dakota
District
of
Columbia
Utah
Maine
Delaware
Montana
Wisconsin
Nebraska
New
York
Missouri
Oregon
West
Virginia
Rhode
Island
New
Mexico
North
Dakota
Massachusetts
Illinois
Kentucky
Michigan
New
Jersey
Indiana
Virginia
Iowa
Oklahoma
North
Carolina
Arkansas
Connecticut
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Alaska
Idaho
Georgia
Maryland
Tennessee
Ohio
Hawaii
Minnesota
Wyoming
South
Carolina
New
Hampshire
Texas
Alabama
Washington
Kansas
Louisiana
California
Nevada
Florida
Arizona
Mississippi
Vermont
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Change
in
hospitalizations
(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days
2020-09-15 Summary: 34

Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-09-15
NA = Inadequate data
2020-09-15 Summary: 35

COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 15, 2020

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (16)

More from Steve Shafer

More from Steve Shafer (20)

COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 15, 2020