Every gambler should seek games with a positive expected value. Positive expected value is the force that makes one a net winner. In sports betting this is called value betting. This presentation shows how to easily identify profitable sports bets.

1. Finding value
bets in
sports
betting ©
2022 Jan
F
a
b
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a
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o
w
s
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2. Team A Draw Team B
1.44
5.19
6.38
Let's say a bookmaker
sets the odds of a
football match to this
If the probability of an outcome times
the odds is greater than one, we have
a value bet

3. Team A Draw Team B
1.44
5.19
6.38
If you can't determine the
probabilities, don't bet
60%
20%
20%
If you follow
sports, even an
educated guess
might be enough

4. Team A Draw Team B
1.44
5.19
6.38
60%
20%
20%
Betting €1 on Team A your
expected win is
€1.44 × 60% = €0.86
That's below your €1 investment!
Betting on a draw gives
€5.19 × 20% = €1.04
The €0.04 expected profit doesn't cover the
risk of the 20% assumption being off
Betting on Team B gives
€6.38 × 20% = €1.28
We found a value bet!
We found a value bet!

5. To find value bets you have
to monitor bookmakers'
odds against your
expectations You can always help
yourself with some
free software like
rationalbets.com