I am scheduled to speak in London, England at the European Distressed Real Estate Conference on April 6-7, 2009. I have attached a copy of my power point presentation, which will be distributed to each of the institutional investors attending the conference.
The panel on which I sit is on Monday at the following time and shall cover the following subjects with session chair and panel participants, as set forth below.
17:30 EVALUATING INVESTMENTS IN THE HOTEL/CONDO HOTEL & LEISURE/CASINO SECTORS
• Hotel Macroeconomic Situation & Historic Performance During Down Times • Are there Clusters of Distressed Hotels?
• Complexities Involving Mixed-Use Projects with Lodging Elements • What are your Options with Broken Properties?
• Chain Bankruptcies & Related Cross-Border Issues • Casino & Gaming Underperformers
Session Chair:
Chris Evans, Partner HAMILTON HOTEL PARTNERS
Panel Participants:
Ramsey Mankarious, Chief Executive Officer CEDAR CAPITAL PARTNERS LTD.
Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director THE CREST AT WATERFORD LAKES, LLC Charles Human, Managing Director HV HODGES WARD ELLIOTT Jochen D. Schäfer-Surén, Head of Hotels and Leisure-Fund Management INVESCO REAL ESTATE Carola Lueder, Real Estate Broker PROPERTIES USA REMAX PARTNERS
Please feel free to visit our IMN"s website for more a detailed agenda: http://secure.imn.org/web_confe/index.cfm?sc=20090407_RE_0028&pg=Agenda
I look forward to seeing or hearing from you with your comments to the attached, as I hope that we will be able to work together again soon.
1. By: Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director
The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
www.TheCrestLife.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Scott L. Podvin: The European Distressed Real Estate Conference – 6-7 April 2009
2. PODVIN DEVELOPMENT GROUP
RAISING $$100mm FUND
TO PURCHASE REAL ESTATE, DISTRESSED/OPPORTUNISTIC
ASSETS
THIS FUND SHALL FOCUS ON PURCHASING THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF ASSETS:
Strategically located developments, located in the centre of a city,
being large-scale and multi-phase developments typically consisting
City-Core
Development of residential, office, retail, entertainment and cultural properties with
Projects a blend of historic restoration and modern architecture.
Large-scale multi-family residential communities in secondary and
tertiary markets located on main and main where we can implement
Integrated a capital improvement program to push the rents. We will be
Residential
prepared to purchase the asset on an all cash basis, but once the
Development
community has been stabilized, we shall lever it or dispose of the
Projects
asset, triggering a repayment event.
There will be tremendous opportunities in busted condos and conversions
Broken Condos &
while value add plays will also be easy to find. Likewise, there will be many
Conversions or
Partially projects with incomplete construction that we will be able to pick up on the
Constructed cheap, complete construction and reposition the asset to create a vibrant
Communities working, walkable (with bike paths and all), sustainable and living community
for working class people.
WE ARE NOW RAISING A Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real
Estate Conference
$100,000,000 FUND TO 6-7 April, 2009
PURCHASE DISTRESSED spodvin@post.harvard.edu
3. FUND RAISING CENTRAL
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
4. PODVIN DEVELOPMENT GROUP
CORE BUSINESS FOCUS
Our core business focus is the:
1. Identification;
2. Acquisition;
3. Ownership; and
4. Operation of multi-family
residential and hospitality
real estate properties.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
5. Investors
1. Institutional Investors
2. Pension funds
Our Preferred
3. Insurance companies Shares pay
4. Endowments cumulative
preferential cash
5. Investment Banks
distributions at an
6. Commercial Banks
annual rate of 9%.
7. Fund of funds
8. High net worth individuals
9. Family offices
10. Sovereign wealth funds
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
6. Investment Objectives
OBJECTIVES:
(1) acquire superior-located, middle-income, mutli-
family residential properties that have been
neglected or poorly managed; and
(2) increase profitability thru:
(a) providing superior on-site property mngmnt,
(b) improving physical appearance and living
environment of the properties;
(c) implementing renovation strategies in those
instances where rental rate increases justify the
costs; and,
(d) implementing business development
strategies to cross sell ancillary services
Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
7. OPPORTUNITIES IN DISTRESS
European surveys
reflect that
demand for real
estate debt in
general – and for
distressed debt in
particular – is at
an all time high
Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate
Conference, 6-7 April, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
8. BLUE HORESHOE
LOVES DISTRESS
Consider the dramatic tilt in institutional
investors‘ (2007) allocations:
$44.5 billion targeted to domestic real
estate
$36.3 billion to private real estate
$24.7 billion to non-core (i.e., value-
added and opportunistic),
$11.6 billion to core (i.e., stabilized
apartment, industrial, office & retail)
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference; April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
9. VULTURES CIRCLING –
EYEING THEIR PREY
In 2008, $87Bn was $56.25Bn raised in 2006
raised by 87 $73.75Bn raised in 2007
opportunistic or debt
and distressed debt
focused funds.
Of the $87Bn, U.S.
accounted for $47MM
and Europe for
$15.8MM
Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
10. SPATE OF RECORD FUND RAISINGS
FOR DISTRESSED DEBT BY
1. Carlyle
2. MGPA
3. Blackstone
4. Area Property Partners
5. Palmer Capital – recently launched an
opportunity fund with GVA Grimley
6. Schroders lookling to raise up to £1bn in
new equity
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference; April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
11. OTHERS ARE WAITING
ON THE SIDELINES
COMPELLING STORY
Consider the explosive growth of RE-oriented private equity:
Apollo
Blackstone
Colony Capital
Ramius
Bain Capital
SAC Capital
Recent Deals
London Opportunity Fund
Stamford‘s Opportunity Fund
Source: Kingsley Associates and Institutional Real Estate, Inc
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
12. Opportunity Knocks
There will be more ways to earn opportunistic
Goldman Sachs is •
returns going forward.
asking investors in
its $15bn private
Collier capital - get inundated
equity fund for
approval to shift
• Harbourvest - with calls w/
much of its
• Goldman Sachs - cash strapped inv
remaining
• Paul Capital - selling private
uninvested money
into distressed
• Pantheon and - equity assets
debt in a stark
• Lexington partners –
indication of just
how dysfunctional
RBS hires UBS to sell its almost £500mm of
•
the buy-out
investments in private equity funds
business has
become amid the
$134Bn of private equity assets just on the
•
meltdown in credit
balance sheet of 6 big money banks and AIG
markets.
Source: super return conference Berlin, Germany
•
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
12
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
13. SMART MONEY
GOES TO FLORIDA
Terra Firma Capital
Partners, increases
assets under mngmnt fr
€2bn to €11bn, w/ about
80% of its portfolio biz
revenues from U.S.
SMART MONEY GOES
TO THE U.S.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
14. CDS CLEANING SERVICE
Scott L. Podvin: European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
15. HEDGE FUND LIQUIDATIONS--
“THE GREAT LIQUIDATION”
- Industry size
The industry Managed approx. $2.5T
at its peak in the summer of 2008.[1]
Global credit crunch has caused
assets under management (AUM) to
fall sharply through a combination of
trading losses and the withdrawal of
assets from funds by investors.[2]
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
16. OFFSHORE HEDGE FUNDS
At end-2007, 52% of the
number of hedge funds were
registered offshore.
Most popular offshore
locations:
Cayman Islands (57%);
British Virgin Islands (16%)
and;
Bermuda (11%).
The other offshore centers
are the Isle of Man and
Mauritius.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin
17. ONSHORE HEDGE FUNDS
The US was the most popular
onshore location (with funds
mostly registered in
Delaware) accounting for
65% of the number of
onshore funds, followed by
Europe with 31%.[3]
HUGE OUTFLOWS, NO
INFLOW
OPPORTUNITY IS HIDDEN
IN THE OUTFLOW!
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin
18. HEDGE FUND
LIQUIDATION SALES
Now large numbers of funds are
accelerating or preparing plans to hand
back cash to investors.
These funds include:
Drake Management, the New York manager,
Centaurus Capital in London,
London Diversified Fund Management and
many convertible bond specialists, including
Howard Fischer‘s Basso Capital in Stamford,
Connecticut, and Jeremy Herrmann‘s Ferox
Capital Management in London.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin
19. TARGET PRACTICE
HIT THE HEDGE
DE SHAW – LARGEST US HEDGE
FUND -- APPOINTS INDEPENDENT Funds without independent
ADMINISTRATOR administrators:
1) ESL Investments, run by
Eddie Lampert
MILLENIUM MNGMNT, 2) Renaissance Technologies,
$11Bn NY HEDGE FUND, run by billionaire Jim Simons
APPTS LONDON‘S
3) Chicago Citadel,
GLOBEOP, AS IND. run by Ken Griffin
ADMIN 4) SAC CAPITAL, run by
billionaire Steven Cohen
5) Cerberus
6) HBK Capital, Dallas, Tx
7) Caxton Associates, run
by billionaire Bruce
UNION BANCAIRE PRIVEE, The 2d Kovner
Biggest Inv. in Hedge Funds (& a These are the targets!!!
major loser from Madoff), warns
others to appoint indep. admins
These guys should be selling soon!
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
20. TIME FOR A
MARKET STABILITY REGULATOR
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
21. PRIV. EQUITY FIRMS MAKE THE BEST
SELLERS/JV PARTNERS
1 The Carlyle Group Washington DC $ 32.5 16 Hellman & Friedman San Fran $ 12.0
2 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts New York $ 31.1 17 CCMP Capital NY $ 11.7
3 Goldman Sachs Princ Invmt Area NY $ 31.0 18 Gen. Atlantic Greenwich, CT $ 11.4
4 The Blackstone Group New York $ 28.36 19 Silver Lake Prtnrs Menlo Park, CA $ 11.0
5 TPG Capital Fort Worth $ 23.5 20 Teachers' Priv Capital Toronto $ 10.78
6 Permira London $ 21.47 21 EQT Partners Stockholm $ 10.28
7 Apax Partners London $ 18.85 22 1st Reserve Corp Greenwich, CT$ 10.1
8 Bain Capital Boston $ 17.3 23 American Capital Bethesda, MD $ 9.57
9 Providence Equity Partners Prov, RI $ 16.36 24 Charterhouse Cap Prtnrs London $ 9.0
10 CVC Capital Partners London $ 15.65 25 Lehman Bros Priv. Eq. NY $ 8.5
11 Cinven London $ 15.07 26 Candover London $ 8.29
12 Apollo Management New York $ 13.9 27 Fortress Invstmnt Group NY $ 8.26
13 3i Group London $ 13.37 28 Sun Cap. Prtnrs Boca Raton, FL $ 8.0
14 Warburg Pincus New York $ 13.3 29 BC Partners London $ 7.9
15 Terra Firma Capital Partners London $ 12.9 30 Thomas H. Lee Partners Boston $ 7.5
Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference: 6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
22. Private Equity Fund
Diagram
Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
23. MATURING & ROBUST 2DRY MARKET
FOR SELLERS OF PRIVATE EQUITY ASSETS
Driven by strong
Types of Secondary Transactions
demand for private
equity exposure, a
sig. amount of
2.1
capital has been
Sale of
committed to
LP Ints
dedicated
secondary market
funds from investors
2.2
Sale looking to increase
of and diversify their
Direct private equity
Ints exposure
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
24. FOUR POCKETS OF DEMAND
London-based private 1.Opportunity Funds that have been
equity house Benson
established to buy real estate
Elliot Capital
Management has equity
closed Benson Elliot
2.Newer Opp. Funds that have been
Real Estate Partners
III, a pan-European
created as dedicated debt
distressed real estate
investors
fund. The fund had a
target size of €500
3.Private Equity looking at real
million at its 2008:Q3
launch, and has estate debt
managed to raise
4.Real Estate Companies buy back
around €510 million,
officials at the firm
their own debt or debt of others
said.
Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
25. What Should An Investor Do?
• Core funds, particularly newer vintage funds, will begin
to see more attractive pricing for acquisitions.
• Existing core assets will begin to see the benefit of
slowing development as we move into 2009-10.
• REITs in US, Europe and Asia take a beating during
2007-08. So, we are approaching the time for pension
funds, endowments, REITS, and other qualified investors
to rebalance/add to real estate positions.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
26. Capital Market Conditions
Drive Outlook
• Capital Markets are closed
• European Recession Deepening and UE
rising
• Europe's recession risks lasting into
2010
• US deals dropped from 154 to • IMF is expected to
99 while UK deals fell from 74 to • European Central Bank's decision last borrow $100Bn from
50 week to revise downwards its 2010 Japan and may even
growth forecast for eurozone countries
• Securitization trusts hold $1.5T issue bonds, an
from 1 per cent to zero. unprecedented step in
of subprime and alt-A loans,
• Since the world financial crisis exploded its 64-yr history
$400B of which are delinquent
in September, three European • Russia to supervise a
• 5 Canadian Banks –RBC, governments have fallen - in Belgium, consolidation plan
Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank Latvia and Iceland, which is not a EU that would see the
member but could soon apply to join.
of Nova Scotia, Canadian number of banks cut
Imperial Bank and Bank of from 1,100 to 500.
• Europe risks being the last region to pull
Montreal –put investment banks
itself out of recession unless it can • Global financial
under same umbrella present a unified front on the economic tsunami batters Hong
crisis.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Kong, as it falls into
Distressed Real Estate Conference recession
• Germany sees sharp (20.7% (Jan – Jan))
6-7 April 09 drop in exports, the driver for the region’s
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
largest economy.
26
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
27. 2009 is Going to be Painful for Many
Source: Cartoonbank.com
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference,
6-7 April 2009: www.TheCrestLife.com
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
28. BALKANIZATION OF EUROPEAN FINANCE?
• Growth slows and region may
Recession is here.
fall into recession
• European CDS market
• Is it different this time or
is overrun by PIIGS –
How deep and how long?
is Asia in denial?
Portugal, Ireland, Italy,
Greece and Spain
• Warnings signs from Hong
Kong & Vietnam, slower
growth showing in Australia
and Japan, although China
and India forge ahead
• IMF bails out Eastern Europe –
Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia --
• FDIC had $18.8Bn in depo ins fund at
and Ukraine, Latvia, Hungary &
end of 4 th qtr to protect about $4.8T of
Serbia
ins deposits
• Economic risks spike for Germany,
• 14 banks have failed this yr, bringing
Spain, UK, Ireland & certain
total to 35 since Jly
―emerging‖ states
• At end of 4th qtr, 252 banks and thrifts
• Spain‘s Unemployment reaches
on govt‘s problem list (534 banks
Sovereign
15%
failed in 1989)
Defaults: about ¼
• Banks are charging fees of 2.5 to 3.5%• Spain‘s economic miracle is a
if S&Ps rated
mirage‖ : 1mm unsold new homes.
on ave for a solid issuer n the current
sovereigns are on
market. • RBS reports £24.1bn loss for 2008--
negative outlook –
largest in British corporate history –
• Unemployment ____________
the highest
after suffering heavy losses from
hostile takeover of ABN AMRO, the
• Banks are syndicating more risk proportion ever
Dutch lender
(laying off 50 to 75%)
Scott L. Podvin: European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09
28
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
29. CRISIS STARTS IN U.S. BUT TURNS
INTO CATASTROPHE IN & AROUND
EUROPE
Russian Public and private institutions need to
refinance $117.1Bn in bank loans and bonds
this year
• Ireland bails out two
largest lenders, Allied
Irish Banks and Bank of
• Regulators will continue to
Ireland, after it
require that banks maintain
nationalized Anglo Irish
a min. 6% Tier 1 capital • China‘s Export‘s
Bank, the 3rd largest bank.
ratio, 3% of which should Plunge 17.5%,
come from common stock. • Belgium‘s Fortis gets but remains
nationalized and sold to resilient, as
• Emergency Economic
BNP Paribas of France trade surplus
Stabilization Act of 2008
hovers at
• Britain in deep recession
• One in 4 banks not $39.1Bn
and could shrink by as
profitable in 2008, highest • Japan shows its
much as 4% in 1st ½ yr –
level in 25 yrs economy
pound sank as much as
contracted
• Dollar index rises 3% vs. the dollar
12.7% on a
• Poland‘s Zloty falls 14% seasonally
vs. euro adjusted
annualized basis
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
in the 4th Qtr
6-7 April 09 29
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
30. RECOVERY CHECKLIST:
● Bank guarantees –
In the works: Among EU initiatives
to combat the crisis are:
€2,500bn
● A recovery plan costing
● Aid for central and
€200bn ($263m, £188bn), of
eastern Europe – a
which €170bn stems from
€25bn facility, of which
national governments
€6.5bn is already being
● Spending by means of
disbursed to Hungary
―automatic stabilisers‖
(unemployment benefits and and €3.1bn to Latvia
other social security
● Support for the car
payments) worth about
industry – €7bn in loans
€200bn
expected from the
Recapitalising banks –
European Investment
€300bn
Bank
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
31. UNITED KINGDOM
1. London is Europe‘s leading centre for
hedge fund managers, with three-
quarters of European hedge fund
investments, about $400bn (£200bn), at
the end of 2007.
2. Unemployment has soared to above 2m
for the first time since 1997.
3. London won market share from
continental exchanges and remained
the most successful market in Europe
for initial pubic offerings in 2008.
4. Britain is set to have the longest
recession of all the major economies.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
32. UNITED KINGDOM
5. Britain will invest $73 Bn in its banks;
6. Britain decided that the Royal Bank of Scotland, Northern
Rock and Bradford & Bingley are, in effect, public
corporations because the gov‘t has sig. control over their
operations.
7.Ave. UK home is now £195,724, down more than £25,000 in
the last year, according to DCLG.
8. House prices down:
Ireland down 14.3%
England down 11.8%.
West Midlands down 14.1%
London down 13.9%.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
33. OPPORTUNITY LIES
BENEATH THE SURFACE
RBS reports £24.1bn loss for 2008--
largest in British corporate history –
after suffering heavy losses from
hostile takeover of ABN AMRO, the
Dutch lender
Lloyds– including HBOS -- in worse
shape than RBS after purchasing
Halifax Bank of Scotland – UK govt‘s
stake NOW reaches 77%
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
34. Angela Merkel Backs Germany‘s Banks
GERMANY OPTS FOR LOAN GUARANTEES, NOT DIRECT STAKE IN BANKS
In Berlin, German leaders unveiled a 480
billion package consisting mostly of loan
guarantees, but no stimulus plan
Unlike the British blueprint, however, the
plan announced by Ms. Merkel does not call
for Berlin to acquire direct stakes in
German banks.
Instead, the German approach offers
€400Bn in guarantees for inter-bank loans
and another €80Bn for direct injections of
capital to restore weakened balance sheets
and purchase the toxic, illiquid assets.
Reichmuth & Co are shutting Madoff-hit
funds of hedge funds.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate
Conference
6-7 April 09
In 2002 Germany introduced the single
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
European currency, the euro.
35. GERMANY UPS THE ANTE TOO
The German gov‘t has done a lot with a
€50Bn stimulus for consumption, €115Bn
for stability to the real economy, and
€400Bn in stabilizing financial institutions.
Many funds of hedge funds are already on
the block or are being shut down with
Deutsche Bank Closing its Topiary unit and
Spain‘s BBVA closing its Altitude JV.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
36. VIVA LATO €360Bn FOR BAIL-
FRANCE
FRANCE AGREES
OUTS
1MM French demonstrators
staged W. Europe‘s
biggest public protest
French gov‘t creates fund
to guarantee debt for up
to 5yrs
To obtain these funds,
Banks pledge collateral,
including debt currently
not accepted as collateral
by the ECB.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate
Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
37. SARKOZY VOTES AGAINST
ADDITIONAL STIMULUS
In addition, a 2d French state-
sponsored company will
provide up to €40 Bn in direct
capital injections to banks
that request it, in exchange for
handing over equity stakes in
the debtor.
No short term stimulus plan.
The combined budget deficit
of the eurozone‘s four biggest
countries – Germany, France,
Italy and Spain – will hit 6.4%
of GDP in 2010, up from 5.8%
in 2009.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed
Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
38. EURO-FACTS
The bailout packages are roughly similar in
economic impact:
percent of GDP in
1.3.3
Germany,
2.2.1 percent in France, and
3.2.9 percent in Britain,
according to Capital Economics in London
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
39. EURO-FACTS CONT-
While Europe‘s biggest economies led the
way:
Austria makes €100Bn available for
recapitalizations and loan guarantees;
Spain insures up to €100Bn in bank
debt; &
Netherlands threw €220Bn into the
mix.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
40. BIG DEBT
By 2012, the ratio of gross public debt to
gross domestic product could be:
117% in Italy;
97% in the US;
80% in France;
79% in Germany; &
75% in the UK.
224% in Japan
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European
Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
41. ALL IN
For Germany, France, the Netherlands and
Austria — countries whose combined
economies are just over half the size of the
United States‘ — state guarantees and
capital injections reach 1.3 trillion euros,
according to Holger Schmieding, chief
European economist for Bank of America in
London.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
42. WHO HAS THE MOST DEBT
1. Ukraine- $40Bn in loans with $28.8Bn in
reserve
2. Hungary-$35Bn in loans with $31Bn in
reserve
3. Turkey— $100Bn in loans with $70Bn in
reserve
4. Asia—$775Bn in loans (highest external
debt to roll over)
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
43. NOT MUCH BETTER IN THE U.S.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
44. Public Law 110-343/HR
1424
SON OF TARP IS BORNE
Effective October 3, 2008, this
169-page law created a $700
billion dollar Troubled Assets
Relief Program under the
Emergency Economic
Stabilization Act of 2008
(division A), and also enacted
the Energy Improvement and
Extension Act of 2008
(division B), Tax Extenders
and Alternative Minimum Tax
Relief Act of 2008 (division C)
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
45.
46. Expenditures and
Commitments
1. As of February 9, 2009, $388 billion had been
allotted, and $296 billion spent, according to the
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Among the money committed, includes:[26]
2. $250 billion to purchase bank equity shares
through the Capital Purchase Program ($195
billion spent);
3. $40 billion to purchase preferred shares of
American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500)
through the program for Systemically Significant
Failing Institutions ($40 billion spent);
4. $20 billion to back any losses that the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York might incur under the
Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (none
spent);
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
47. Expenditures and Commitments
Cont.
4. $40Bn in stock purchases
of Citigroup and Bank of
America ($20Bn each)
through the Targeted
Investment Program
($40Bn spent)
5. $12.5Bn in loan guarantees
for Citigroup ($5Bn) and
Bank of America ($7.5Bn)
through the Asset
Guarantee Program (none
spent);
6. $25Bn in loans to autos
and their financing
arms through the
Automotive Industry
Financing Program ($21
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real
Estate Conference
billion spent)
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
48. TARP TIMELINE
On Nov. 12, 2008, Sec. of the Treasury Hank Paulson indicates
reviving the securitization market for consumer credit is a
new priority
On Dec. 19, 2008, President Bush, declares TARP funds may be
spent on any program he deems necessary; and requests
TARP funds to support the auto industry.
On Jan. 15, 2009, Treasury issues interim final rules for
reporting and record keeping.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
49. TARP TIMELINE CONT-
On 21/Jan/09, Treasury announced new
regulations regarding disclosure and
mitigation of conflicts of interest in
TARP contracting.
On 5/Feb/09, U.S. Sen. approves changes
to TARP, prohibiting firms receiving TARP
funds from paying bonuses to their 25
highest-paid employees.
On 10/feb/09, Sec. Treasury Timothy
Geithner outlined his plan to use $300Bn
of which $50 billion for foreclosure
mitigation and the rest to fund private
investors to buy toxic assets from banks.
Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
50. BUY A TOASTER, GET A FREE BANK
Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
51.
52. NATIONALIZING THE BANKING SYSTEM
Total losses now exceed impact of RTC
Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
53. Lender’s Brace for Global Cooling
PRE-CREDIT CRISIS TODAY 2008
MAX LOAN TO VALUE/
70%-75% 60%
LOAN TO COST
MIN DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE
1.05x 1.20x
RATIO
Borrowers Pro forma NOI Current in-Place NOI
NOI UNDERWRITING
85-125 bps 250-350 bps
SPREADS
Sized using
Sized using Amortizing DSCR
LOAN PROCEEDS
I/O DSCR
3 Years I/O on
10 Years I/O
AMORTIZATION
10 Year Loan
Requires Structuring (holdbacks,
Minimal
LOAN REQUIREMENTS
earn outs, TI escrows)
SYNDICATION RISK (Large
Underwritten, Lead Bank Lender Best Efforts, Borrower
Loans)
Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
54. NOW THAT I‘VE FOUND MY
PEARL, THE UNIVERSE IS MY
OYSTER
55. So, How Should I
Price Non-Core Real Estate:
Identify components of asset-level
returns,
Understand impact of financial
leverage,
Examine effects of transaction
costs; and
Examine effects of JV structures.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
56. REAL
ESTATE
FUNDS –
THE
ANATOMY
OF THE
DEAL
Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s
European Distressed Real
Estate Conference
April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dv
in
57. What to Look for in a
REAL ESTATE FUND
Experience
Skills
Contacts
Practical problem solving
Reputation
Team
Capacity
$$ Balance Sheet $$
Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
58. THE CHEMISTRY COUNTS
Alignment of Interests:
FUND & REAL ESTATE COMPANY
Fund Objectives
Fund Life
Leverage and Financing
Guarantees
Management Style and Control
Tax Considerations
Dealing with Unexpected Issues
Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
59. BUSINESS PLAN
We will acquire, own & operate multi-family
residential properties.
We plan to own five (5) multi-family residential
properties.
We will acquire additional properties meeting
certain objectives described in our prospectus in
the section entitled ‗‗Investment Guidelines.‘‘
We plan to finance the acquisition of these add‘l
properties mostly through banks
No commitments from any lenders with respect to
a credit facility at this time.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
60. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of
The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC
www.TheCrestLife.com
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
Cell: (305) 793-5762
Fax: (305) 665-3971