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By: Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director
     The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC
     spodvin@post.harvard.edu
     www.TheCrestLife.com
     http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
     Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971


         Scott L. Podvin: The European Distressed Real Estate Conference – 6-7 April 2009
PODVIN DEVELOPMENT GROUP
               RAISING $$100mm FUND
 TO PURCHASE REAL ESTATE, DISTRESSED/OPPORTUNISTIC
                      ASSETS
   THIS FUND SHALL FOCUS ON PURCHASING THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF ASSETS:
                   Strategically located developments, located in the centre of a city,
                   being large-scale and multi-phase developments typically consisting
   City-Core
  Development      of residential, office, retail, entertainment and cultural properties with
    Projects       a blend of historic restoration and modern architecture.

                   Large-scale multi-family residential communities in secondary and
                   tertiary markets located on main and main where we can implement
   Integrated      a capital improvement program to push the rents. We will be
   Residential
                   prepared to purchase the asset on an all cash basis, but once the
  Development
                   community has been stabilized, we shall lever it or dispose of the
    Projects
                   asset, triggering a repayment event.

                   There will be tremendous opportunities in busted condos and conversions
 Broken Condos &
                   while value add plays will also be easy to find. Likewise, there will be many
  Conversions or
     Partially     projects with incomplete construction that we will be able to pick up on the
   Constructed     cheap, complete construction and reposition the asset to create a vibrant
   Communities     working, walkable (with bike paths and all), sustainable and living community
                   for working class people.

WE ARE NOW RAISING A                      Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real
                                          Estate Conference
$100,000,000 FUND TO                      6-7 April, 2009
PURCHASE DISTRESSED                       spodvin@post.harvard.edu
FUND RAISING CENTRAL




Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
PODVIN DEVELOPMENT GROUP
   CORE BUSINESS FOCUS
Our core business focus is the:
1. Identification;
2. Acquisition;
3. Ownership; and
4. Operation of multi-family
     residential and hospitality
     real estate properties.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
Investors
1. Institutional Investors
2. Pension funds
                                                                    Our Preferred
3. Insurance companies                                              Shares pay
4. Endowments                                                       cumulative
                                                                    preferential cash
5. Investment Banks
                                                                    distributions at an
6. Commercial Banks
                                                                    annual rate of 9%.
7. Fund of funds
8. High net worth individuals
9. Family offices
10. Sovereign wealth funds
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
Investment Objectives
OBJECTIVES:
 (1) acquire superior-located, middle-income, mutli-
 family residential      properties that have been
 neglected or poorly managed; and
 (2) increase profitability thru:
      (a) providing superior on-site property mngmnt,
      (b) improving physical appearance and living
 environment of the properties;
      (c) implementing renovation strategies in those
 instances where rental rate increases justify the
 costs; and,
      (d) implementing business development
 strategies to cross sell ancillary services

Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
OPPORTUNITIES IN DISTRESS
   European surveys
   reflect        that
   demand for real
   estate debt in
   general – and for
   distressed debt in
   particular – is at
   an all time high


Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate
Conference, 6-7 April, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
BLUE HORESHOE
                     LOVES DISTRESS
 Consider the dramatic tilt in institutional
   investors‘ (2007) allocations:
    $44.5 billion targeted to domestic real
     estate
    $36.3 billion to private real estate
      $24.7 billion to non-core (i.e., value-
       added and opportunistic),
      $11.6 billion to core (i.e., stabilized
       apartment, industrial, office & retail)


Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference; April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
VULTURES CIRCLING –
                 EYEING THEIR PREY
 In 2008, $87Bn was                 $56.25Bn raised in 2006
  raised by 87                       $73.75Bn raised in 2007
  opportunistic or debt
  and distressed debt
  focused funds.
 Of the $87Bn, U.S.
  accounted for $47MM
  and Europe for
  $15.8MM

Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
SPATE OF RECORD FUND RAISINGS
   FOR DISTRESSED DEBT BY
   1. Carlyle
   2. MGPA
   3. Blackstone
   4. Area Property Partners
   5. Palmer Capital – recently launched an
      opportunity fund with GVA Grimley
   6. Schroders lookling to raise up to £1bn in
      new equity


Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference; April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
OTHERS ARE WAITING
                        ON THE SIDELINES
COMPELLING STORY
Consider the explosive growth of RE-oriented private equity:
 Apollo
 Blackstone
 Colony Capital
 Ramius
 Bain Capital
 SAC Capital
 Recent Deals
 London Opportunity Fund
 Stamford‘s Opportunity Fund

    Source: Kingsley Associates and Institutional Real Estate, Inc





Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
Opportunity Knocks
                                   There will be more ways to earn opportunistic
Goldman Sachs is               •
                                   returns going forward.
asking investors in
its $15bn private
                                 Collier capital -  get inundated
equity    fund    for
approval to shift
                               • Harbourvest     -  with calls w/
much       of      its
                               • Goldman Sachs - cash strapped inv
remaining
                               • Paul Capital    -  selling private
uninvested money
into      distressed
                               • Pantheon and     -   equity assets
debt in a stark
                               • Lexington partners –
indication of just
how dysfunctional
                                   RBS hires UBS to sell its almost £500mm of
                               •
the           buy-out
                                   investments in private equity funds
business         has
become amid the
                                   $134Bn of private equity assets just on the
                               •
meltdown in credit
                                   balance sheet of 6 big money banks and AIG
markets.
                                   Source: super return conference Berlin, Germany
                               •




Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
             12
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
SMART MONEY
                      GOES TO FLORIDA
                                              Terra    Firma    Capital
                                                Partners,     increases
                                                assets under mngmnt fr
                                                €2bn to €11bn, w/ about
                                                80% of its portfolio biz
                                                revenues from U.S.

                                              SMART    MONEY       GOES
                                                TO THE U.S.


Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
CDS CLEANING SERVICE




Scott L. Podvin: European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
HEDGE FUND LIQUIDATIONS--
          “THE GREAT LIQUIDATION”
 - Industry size

 The industry Managed approx. $2.5T
  at its peak in the summer of 2008.[1]
 Global credit crunch has caused
  assets under management (AUM) to
  fall sharply through a combination of
  trading losses and the withdrawal of
  assets from funds by investors.[2]

Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
OFFSHORE HEDGE FUNDS
 At end-2007, 52% of the
  number of hedge funds were
  registered offshore.
 Most popular offshore
  locations:
    Cayman Islands (57%);
    British Virgin Islands (16%)
     and;
    Bermuda (11%).
 The other offshore centers
  are the Isle of Man and
  Mauritius.


Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin
ONSHORE HEDGE FUNDS
 The US was the most popular
  onshore location (with funds
  mostly registered in
  Delaware) accounting for
  65% of the number of
  onshore funds, followed by
  Europe with 31%.[3]
 HUGE OUTFLOWS, NO
  INFLOW
 OPPORTUNITY IS HIDDEN
  IN THE OUTFLOW!



Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin
HEDGE FUND
                         LIQUIDATION SALES
 Now      large    numbers  of   funds are
    accelerating or preparing plans to hand
    back cash to investors.
    These funds include:


 Drake Management, the New York manager,
 Centaurus Capital in London,
 London Diversified Fund Management and
    many convertible bond specialists, including
    Howard Fischer‘s Basso Capital in Stamford,
    Connecticut, and Jeremy Herrmann‘s Ferox
    Capital Management in London.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin
TARGET PRACTICE
                      HIT THE HEDGE
DE SHAW – LARGEST US HEDGE
  FUND -- APPOINTS INDEPENDENT                                       Funds without independent
                                                    
  ADMINISTRATOR                                                       administrators:
                                                                    1) ESL Investments, run by
                                                        
                                                                           Eddie Lampert
MILLENIUM MNGMNT,                                                   2) Renaissance Technologies,
                                                            
$11Bn NY HEDGE FUND,                                                    run by billionaire Jim Simons
APPTS LONDON‘S
                                                                 3) Chicago Citadel,
GLOBEOP, AS IND.                                                    run by Ken Griffin
ADMIN                                                            4) SAC CAPITAL, run by
                                                                     billionaire Steven Cohen
                                                                 5) Cerberus
                                                                 6) HBK Capital, Dallas, Tx
                                                                 7) Caxton Associates, run
                                                                         by billionaire Bruce
UNION BANCAIRE PRIVEE, The 2d                                            Kovner
  Biggest Inv. in Hedge Funds (& a                      These are the targets!!!
  major loser from Madoff), warns
  others to appoint indep. admins
These guys should be selling soon!

Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
TIME FOR A
   MARKET STABILITY REGULATOR




Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
PRIV. EQUITY FIRMS MAKE THE BEST
         SELLERS/JV PARTNERS
1 The Carlyle Group Washington DC $ 32.5        16 Hellman & Friedman San Fran $ 12.0
2 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts New York $ 31.1       17 CCMP Capital NY               $ 11.7
3 Goldman Sachs Princ Invmt Area NY $ 31.0      18 Gen. Atlantic Greenwich, CT   $ 11.4
4 The Blackstone Group New York $ 28.36         19 Silver Lake Prtnrs Menlo Park, CA $ 11.0
5 TPG Capital Fort Worth $ 23.5                 20 Teachers' Priv Capital Toronto $ 10.78
6 Permira London $ 21.47                        21 EQT Partners Stockholm        $ 10.28
7 Apax Partners London $ 18.85                  22 1st Reserve Corp Greenwich, CT$ 10.1
8 Bain Capital Boston $ 17.3                    23 American Capital Bethesda, MD $ 9.57
9 Providence Equity Partners Prov, RI $ 16.36   24 Charterhouse Cap Prtnrs London $ 9.0
10 CVC Capital Partners London $ 15.65          25 Lehman Bros Priv. Eq. NY        $ 8.5
11 Cinven London $ 15.07                        26 Candover London                 $ 8.29
12 Apollo Management New York $ 13.9            27 Fortress Invstmnt Group NY      $ 8.26
13 3i Group London $ 13.37                      28 Sun Cap. Prtnrs Boca Raton, FL $ 8.0
14 Warburg Pincus New York $ 13.3               29 BC Partners London              $ 7.9
15 Terra Firma Capital Partners London $ 12.9 30 Thomas H. Lee Partners Boston $ 7.5




Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference: 6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
Private Equity Fund
                  Diagram




Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
MATURING & ROBUST 2DRY MARKET
        FOR SELLERS OF PRIVATE EQUITY ASSETS
                                                                     Driven by strong
 Types of Secondary Transactions
                                                                     demand for private
                                                                     equity exposure, a
                                                                     sig. amount of
    2.1
                                                                     capital has been
    Sale of
                                                                     committed to
    LP Ints
                                                                     dedicated
                                                                     secondary market
                                                                     funds from investors
    2.2
    Sale                                                             looking to increase
    of                                                               and diversify their
    Direct                                                           private equity
    Ints                                                             exposure

Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
FOUR POCKETS OF DEMAND
London-based private      1.Opportunity Funds that have been
equity house Benson
                            established to buy real estate
Elliot Capital
Management has              equity
closed Benson Elliot
                          2.Newer Opp. Funds that have been
Real Estate Partners
III, a pan-European
                            created    as   dedicated     debt
distressed real estate
                            investors
fund. The fund had a
target size of €500
                          3.Private Equity looking at real
million at its 2008:Q3
launch, and has             estate debt
managed to raise
                          4.Real Estate Companies buy back
around €510 million,
officials at the firm
                            their own debt or debt of others
said.


Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
What Should An Investor Do?
    • Core funds, particularly newer vintage funds, will begin
     to see more attractive pricing for acquisitions.

    • Existing core assets will begin to see the benefit of
     slowing development as we move into 2009-10.

    • REITs in US, Europe and Asia take a beating during
     2007-08. So, we are approaching the time for pension
     funds, endowments, REITS, and other qualified investors
     to rebalance/add to real estate positions.


     Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference

     April 6-7, 2009

     spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin

Capital Market Conditions
                     Drive Outlook


                                     • Capital Markets are closed
                                     • European Recession Deepening and UE
                                       rising
                                     • Europe's recession risks lasting into
                                        2010
  • US deals dropped from 154 to                                                      • IMF is expected to
    99 while UK deals fell from 74 to • European Central Bank's decision last           borrow $100Bn from
    50                                  week to revise downwards its 2010               Japan and may even
                                        growth forecast for eurozone countries
  • Securitization trusts hold $1.5T                                                    issue bonds, an
                                        from 1 per cent to zero.                        unprecedented step in
    of subprime and alt-A loans,
                                      • Since the world financial crisis exploded       its 64-yr history
    $400B of which are delinquent
                                       in September, three European                   • Russia to supervise a
  • 5 Canadian Banks –RBC,           governments have fallen - in Belgium,              consolidation plan
    Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank      Latvia and Iceland, which is not a EU              that would see the
                                     member but could soon apply to join.
    of Nova Scotia, Canadian                                                            number of banks cut
    Imperial Bank and Bank of                                                           from 1,100 to 500.
                                   • Europe risks being the last region to pull
    Montreal –put investment banks
                                     itself out of recession unless it can            • Global financial
    under same umbrella              present a unified front on the economic            tsunami batters Hong
                                       crisis.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European                                                         Kong, as it falls into
Distressed Real Estate Conference                                                       recession
                                     • Germany sees sharp (20.7% (Jan – Jan))
6-7 April 09                           drop in exports, the driver for the region’s
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
                                       largest economy.
                26
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
2009 is Going to be Painful for Many




   Source: Cartoonbank.com




Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference,
6-7 April 2009: www.TheCrestLife.com
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
BALKANIZATION OF EUROPEAN FINANCE?
                                                                                               • Growth slows and region may
Recession is here.
                                                                                                 fall into recession
                                                    • European CDS market
                                                                                               • Is it different this time or
                                                      is overrun by PIIGS –
How deep and how long?
                                                                                                 is Asia in denial?
                                                      Portugal, Ireland, Italy,
                                                      Greece and Spain
                                                                                               • Warnings signs from Hong
                                                                                                 Kong & Vietnam, slower
                                                                                                 growth showing in Australia
                                                                                                 and Japan, although China
                                                                                                 and India forge ahead




                                            • IMF bails out Eastern Europe –
                                              Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia --
• FDIC had $18.8Bn in depo ins fund at
                                              and Ukraine, Latvia, Hungary &
  end of 4 th qtr to protect about $4.8T of
                                              Serbia
  ins deposits
                                                    • Economic risks spike for Germany,
• 14 banks have failed this yr, bringing
                                                      Spain, UK, Ireland & certain
  total to 35 since Jly
                                                      ―emerging‖ states
• At end of 4th qtr, 252 banks and thrifts
                                           • Spain‘s Unemployment reaches
  on govt‘s problem list (534 banks
                                                                                                Sovereign
                                             15%
  failed in 1989)
                                                                                                Defaults: about ¼
• Banks are charging fees of 2.5 to 3.5%• Spain‘s economic miracle is a
                                                                                                if S&Ps rated
                                             mirage‖ : 1mm unsold new homes.
  on ave for a solid issuer n the current
                                                                                                sovereigns are on
  market.                                  • RBS reports £24.1bn loss for 2008--
                                                                                                negative outlook –
                                                      largest in British corporate history –
• Unemployment ____________
                                                                                                the highest
                                                      after suffering heavy losses from
                                                      hostile takeover of ABN AMRO, the
• Banks are syndicating more risk                                                               proportion ever
                                                      Dutch lender
  (laying off 50 to 75%)
Scott L. Podvin: European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09
                   28
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
CRISIS STARTS IN U.S. BUT TURNS
       INTO CATASTROPHE IN & AROUND
                   EUROPE
                                                                      Russian Public and private institutions need to
                                                                      refinance $117.1Bn in bank loans and bonds
                                                                      this year




                                      • Ireland bails out two
                                        largest lenders, Allied
                                        Irish Banks and Bank of
• Regulators will continue to
                                        Ireland, after it
  require that banks maintain
                                        nationalized Anglo Irish
  a min. 6% Tier 1 capital                                             • China‘s Export‘s
                                        Bank, the 3rd largest bank.
  ratio, 3% of which should                                              Plunge 17.5%,
  come from common stock.             • Belgium‘s Fortis gets            but remains
                                        nationalized and sold to         resilient, as
• Emergency Economic
                                        BNP Paribas of France            trade surplus
  Stabilization Act of 2008
                                                                         hovers at
                                      • Britain in deep recession
• One in 4 banks not                                                     $39.1Bn
                                        and could shrink by as
  profitable in 2008, highest                                          • Japan shows its
                                        much as 4% in 1st ½ yr –
  level in 25 yrs                                                        economy
                                        pound sank as much as
                                                                         contracted
• Dollar index rises                    3% vs. the dollar
                                                                         12.7% on a
                                      • Poland‘s Zloty falls 14%         seasonally
                                        vs. euro                         adjusted
                                                                         annualized basis
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
                                                                         in the 4th Qtr
6-7 April 09      29
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
RECOVERY CHECKLIST:
                                                     ● Bank guarantees –
    In the works: Among EU initiatives

    to combat the crisis are:
                                                       €2,500bn
  ● A recovery plan costing
                                                     ● Aid for central and
  €200bn ($263m, £188bn), of
                                                       eastern Europe – a
  which €170bn stems from
                                                       €25bn facility, of which
  national governments
                                                       €6.5bn is already being
  ● Spending by means of
                                                       disbursed to Hungary
  ―automatic stabilisers‖
  (unemployment benefits and                           and €3.1bn to Latvia
  other social security
                                                     ● Support for the car
  payments) worth about
                                                       industry – €7bn in loans
  €200bn
                                                       expected from the
 Recapitalising banks –
                                                       European Investment
  €300bn
                                                       Bank
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
UNITED KINGDOM
1. London is Europe‘s leading centre for
   hedge fund managers, with three-
   quarters of European hedge fund
   investments, about $400bn (£200bn), at
   the end of 2007.
2. Unemployment has soared to above 2m
   for the first time since 1997.
3. London       won    market     share from
   continental exchanges and remained
   the most successful market in Europe
   for initial pubic offerings in 2008.
4. Britain is set to have the longest
   recession of all the major economies.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
UNITED KINGDOM
5. Britain will invest $73 Bn in its banks;
6. Britain decided that the Royal Bank of Scotland, Northern
   Rock and Bradford & Bingley are, in effect, public
   corporations because the gov‘t has sig. control over their
   operations.
7.Ave. UK home is now £195,724, down more than £25,000 in
  the last year, according to DCLG.
8. House prices down:
  Ireland down 14.3%
  England down 11.8%.
  West Midlands down 14.1%
  London down 13.9%.


Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
OPPORTUNITY LIES
     BENEATH THE SURFACE
RBS reports £24.1bn loss for 2008--
 largest in British corporate history –
 after suffering heavy losses from
 hostile takeover of ABN AMRO, the
 Dutch lender
Lloyds– including HBOS -- in worse
 shape than RBS after purchasing
 Halifax Bank of Scotland – UK govt‘s
 stake NOW reaches 77%
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
Angela Merkel Backs Germany‘s Banks
GERMANY OPTS FOR LOAN GUARANTEES, NOT DIRECT STAKE IN BANKS

                                    In Berlin, German leaders unveiled a 480
                                        billion package consisting mostly of loan
                                        guarantees, but no stimulus plan
                                    Unlike the British blueprint, however, the
                                        plan announced by Ms. Merkel does not call
                                        for Berlin to acquire direct stakes in
                                        German banks.
                                    Instead,      the German approach offers
                                        €400Bn in guarantees for inter-bank loans
                                        and another €80Bn for direct injections of
                                        capital to restore weakened balance sheets
                                        and purchase the toxic, illiquid assets.
                                    Reichmuth      & Co are shutting Madoff-hit
                                        funds of hedge funds.

                                         Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate
                                         Conference
                                         6-7 April 09
In 2002 Germany introduced the single
                                         spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
European currency, the euro.
GERMANY UPS THE ANTE TOO
 The German gov‘t has done a lot with a
  €50Bn stimulus for consumption, €115Bn
  for stability to the real economy, and
  €400Bn in stabilizing financial institutions.
 Many funds of hedge funds are already on
  the block or are being shut down with
  Deutsche Bank Closing its Topiary unit and
  Spain‘s BBVA closing its Altitude JV.


Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
VIVA LATO €360Bn FOR BAIL-
               FRANCE
 FRANCE AGREES
                       OUTS

 1MM French demonstrators
  staged     W.     Europe‘s
  biggest public protest
 French gov‘t creates fund
  to guarantee debt for up
  to 5yrs
 To obtain these funds,
  Banks pledge collateral,
  including debt currently
  not accepted as collateral
  by the ECB.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate
Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
SARKOZY VOTES AGAINST
        ADDITIONAL STIMULUS
 In addition, a 2d French state-
  sponsored      company      will
  provide up to €40 Bn in direct
  capital injections to banks
  that request it, in exchange for
  handing over equity stakes in
  the debtor.
 No short term stimulus plan.
 The combined budget deficit
  of the eurozone‘s four biggest
  countries – Germany, France,
  Italy and Spain – will hit 6.4%
  of GDP in 2010, up from 5.8%
  in 2009.


Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed
Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
EURO-FACTS
 The   bailout packages                              are       roughly   similar   in
   economic impact:

       percent of GDP in
1.3.3
 Germany,
2.2.1 percent in France, and
3.2.9 percent in Britain,
according to Capital Economics in London




Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
EURO-FACTS CONT-
 While Europe‘s biggest economies led the
  way:
 Austria makes €100Bn available for
  recapitalizations and loan guarantees;
 Spain insures up to €100Bn in bank
  debt; &
 Netherlands threw €220Bn into the
  mix.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
BIG DEBT
 By 2012, the ratio of gross public debt to
    gross domestic product could be:
    117% in Italy;

    97% in the US;

    80% in France;

    79% in Germany; &

    75% in the UK.

    224% in Japan



Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European
Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
ALL IN
 For Germany, France, the Netherlands and
  Austria — countries whose combined
  economies are just over half the size of the
  United States‘ — state guarantees and
  capital injections reach 1.3 trillion euros,
  according to Holger Schmieding, chief
  European economist for Bank of America in
  London.


Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
WHO HAS THE MOST DEBT
1. Ukraine- $40Bn in loans with $28.8Bn in
   reserve
2. Hungary-$35Bn in loans with $31Bn in
   reserve
3. Turkey— $100Bn in loans with $70Bn in
   reserve
4. Asia—$775Bn in loans (highest external
   debt to roll over)


Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
NOT MUCH BETTER IN THE U.S.




Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
Public Law 110-343/HR
                 1424
   SON OF TARP IS BORNE
 Effective October 3, 2008, this
   169-page law created a $700
   billion dollar Troubled Assets
   Relief Program under the
   Emergency            Economic
   Stabilization Act of 2008
   (division A), and also enacted
   the Energy Improvement and
   Extension      Act   of    2008
   (division B), Tax Extenders
   and Alternative Minimum Tax
   Relief Act of 2008 (division C)

Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
Expenditures and
                    Commitments
                      1. As of February 9, 2009, $388 billion had been
                          allotted, and $296 billion spent, according to the
                          Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
                          Among the money committed, includes:[26]
                      2. $250     billion to purchase bank equity shares
                          through the Capital Purchase Program ($195
                          billion spent);
                      3. $40    billion to purchase preferred shares of
                          American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500)
                          through the program for Systemically Significant
                          Failing Institutions ($40 billion spent);
                      4. $20 billion to back any losses that the Federal
                          Reserve Bank of New York might incur under the
                          Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (none
                          spent);

Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
Expenditures and Commitments
Cont.
                                                  4. $40Bn in stock purchases
                                                     of Citigroup and Bank of
                                                     America     ($20Bn    each)
                                                     through    the    Targeted
                                                     Investment         Program
                                                     ($40Bn spent)
                                                  5. $12.5Bn in loan guarantees
                                                     for Citigroup ($5Bn) and
                                                     Bank of America ($7.5Bn)
                                                     through       the     Asset
                                                     Guarantee Program (none
                                                     spent);
                                                  6. $25Bn in loans to autos
                                                     and     their  financing
                                                     arms      through    the
                                                     Automotive      Industry
                                                     Financing Program ($21
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real
Estate Conference
                                                     billion spent)
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
TARP TIMELINE
On Nov. 12, 2008, Sec. of the Treasury Hank Paulson indicates
 reviving the securitization market for consumer credit is a
 new priority
On Dec. 19, 2008, President Bush, declares TARP funds may be
 spent on any program he deems necessary; and requests
 TARP funds to support the auto industry.
On Jan. 15, 2009, Treasury issues interim final rules for
 reporting and record keeping.




Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
TARP TIMELINE CONT-
             On 21/Jan/09, Treasury announced new
              regulations regarding disclosure and
              mitigation of conflicts of interest in
              TARP contracting.
             On 5/Feb/09, U.S. Sen. approves changes
              to TARP, prohibiting firms receiving TARP
              funds from paying bonuses to their 25
              highest-paid employees.
             On 10/feb/09, Sec. Treasury Timothy
              Geithner outlined his plan to use $300Bn
              of which $50 billion for foreclosure
              mitigation and the rest to fund private
              investors to buy toxic assets from banks.
Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
BUY A TOASTER, GET A FREE BANK




Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
NATIONALIZING THE BANKING SYSTEM




    Total losses now exceed impact of RTC

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
6-7 April 09
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
Lender’s Brace for Global Cooling
                                         PRE-CREDIT CRISIS                    TODAY 2008



MAX LOAN TO VALUE/
                                              70%-75%                            60%
LOAN TO COST

MIN DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE
                                                1.05x                            1.20x
RATIO

                                      Borrowers Pro forma NOI            Current in-Place NOI
NOI UNDERWRITING

                                             85-125 bps                       250-350 bps
SPREADS

                                             Sized using
                                                                     Sized using Amortizing DSCR
LOAN PROCEEDS
                                              I/O DSCR

                                                                             3 Years I/O on
                                            10 Years I/O
AMORTIZATION
                                                                             10 Year Loan

                                                                    Requires Structuring (holdbacks,
                                              Minimal
LOAN REQUIREMENTS
                                                                        earn outs, TI escrows)

SYNDICATION RISK     (Large
                                  Underwritten, Lead Bank Lender         Best Efforts, Borrower
Loans)


Scott L. Podvin
IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
NOW THAT I‘VE FOUND MY
PEARL, THE UNIVERSE IS MY
         OYSTER
So, How Should I
      Price Non-Core Real Estate:
 Identify components of asset-level
  returns,
 Understand impact of financial
  leverage,
 Examine effects of transaction
  costs; and
 Examine effects of JV structures.

Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
REAL
    ESTATE
    FUNDS –
    THE
    ANATOMY
    OF THE
    DEAL
Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s
European Distressed Real
Estate Conference
April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu;
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dv
in
What to Look for in a
                   REAL ESTATE FUND
 Experience
 Skills
 Contacts
 Practical problem solving
 Reputation
 Team
 Capacity
 $$ Balance Sheet $$



Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
THE CHEMISTRY COUNTS
Alignment of Interests:
FUND & REAL ESTATE COMPANY
 Fund Objectives
 Fund Life
 Leverage and Financing
 Guarantees
 Management Style and Control
 Tax Considerations
 Dealing with Unexpected Issues




Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
BUSINESS PLAN
 We     will acquire, own & operate multi-family
    residential properties.
    We plan to own five (5) multi-family residential

    properties.
    We will acquire additional properties meeting

    certain objectives described in our prospectus in
    the section entitled ‗‗Investment Guidelines.‘‘
    We plan to finance the acquisition of these add‘l

    properties mostly through banks
    No commitments from any lenders with respect to

    a credit facility at this time.
Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference
April 6-7, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
 Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of
    The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC
    www.TheCrestLife.com

    spodvin@post.harvard.edu

    Cell: (305) 793-5762

    Fax: (305) 665-3971


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European Distressed Real Estate Conf 20 March09

  • 1. By: Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC spodvin@post.harvard.edu www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971 Scott L. Podvin: The European Distressed Real Estate Conference – 6-7 April 2009
  • 2. PODVIN DEVELOPMENT GROUP RAISING $$100mm FUND TO PURCHASE REAL ESTATE, DISTRESSED/OPPORTUNISTIC ASSETS THIS FUND SHALL FOCUS ON PURCHASING THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF ASSETS: Strategically located developments, located in the centre of a city, being large-scale and multi-phase developments typically consisting City-Core Development of residential, office, retail, entertainment and cultural properties with Projects a blend of historic restoration and modern architecture. Large-scale multi-family residential communities in secondary and tertiary markets located on main and main where we can implement Integrated a capital improvement program to push the rents. We will be Residential prepared to purchase the asset on an all cash basis, but once the Development community has been stabilized, we shall lever it or dispose of the Projects asset, triggering a repayment event. There will be tremendous opportunities in busted condos and conversions Broken Condos & while value add plays will also be easy to find. Likewise, there will be many Conversions or Partially projects with incomplete construction that we will be able to pick up on the Constructed cheap, complete construction and reposition the asset to create a vibrant Communities working, walkable (with bike paths and all), sustainable and living community for working class people. WE ARE NOW RAISING A Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference $100,000,000 FUND TO 6-7 April, 2009 PURCHASE DISTRESSED spodvin@post.harvard.edu
  • 3. FUND RAISING CENTRAL Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 4. PODVIN DEVELOPMENT GROUP CORE BUSINESS FOCUS Our core business focus is the: 1. Identification; 2. Acquisition; 3. Ownership; and 4. Operation of multi-family residential and hospitality real estate properties. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 5. Investors 1. Institutional Investors 2. Pension funds Our Preferred 3. Insurance companies Shares pay 4. Endowments cumulative preferential cash 5. Investment Banks distributions at an 6. Commercial Banks annual rate of 9%. 7. Fund of funds 8. High net worth individuals 9. Family offices 10. Sovereign wealth funds Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 6. Investment Objectives OBJECTIVES: (1) acquire superior-located, middle-income, mutli- family residential properties that have been neglected or poorly managed; and (2) increase profitability thru: (a) providing superior on-site property mngmnt, (b) improving physical appearance and living environment of the properties; (c) implementing renovation strategies in those instances where rental rate increases justify the costs; and, (d) implementing business development strategies to cross sell ancillary services Scott L. Podvin IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 7. OPPORTUNITIES IN DISTRESS European surveys reflect that demand for real estate debt in general – and for distressed debt in particular – is at an all time high Scott L. Podvin IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 8. BLUE HORESHOE LOVES DISTRESS  Consider the dramatic tilt in institutional investors‘ (2007) allocations:  $44.5 billion targeted to domestic real estate  $36.3 billion to private real estate  $24.7 billion to non-core (i.e., value- added and opportunistic),  $11.6 billion to core (i.e., stabilized apartment, industrial, office & retail) Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference; April 6-7, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 9. VULTURES CIRCLING – EYEING THEIR PREY  In 2008, $87Bn was  $56.25Bn raised in 2006 raised by 87  $73.75Bn raised in 2007 opportunistic or debt and distressed debt focused funds.  Of the $87Bn, U.S. accounted for $47MM and Europe for $15.8MM Scott L. Podvin IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 10. SPATE OF RECORD FUND RAISINGS FOR DISTRESSED DEBT BY 1. Carlyle 2. MGPA 3. Blackstone 4. Area Property Partners 5. Palmer Capital – recently launched an opportunity fund with GVA Grimley 6. Schroders lookling to raise up to £1bn in new equity Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference; April 6-7, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 11. OTHERS ARE WAITING ON THE SIDELINES COMPELLING STORY Consider the explosive growth of RE-oriented private equity:  Apollo  Blackstone  Colony Capital  Ramius  Bain Capital  SAC Capital  Recent Deals  London Opportunity Fund  Stamford‘s Opportunity Fund Source: Kingsley Associates and Institutional Real Estate, Inc  Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 12. Opportunity Knocks There will be more ways to earn opportunistic Goldman Sachs is • returns going forward. asking investors in its $15bn private Collier capital - get inundated equity fund for approval to shift • Harbourvest - with calls w/ much of its • Goldman Sachs - cash strapped inv remaining • Paul Capital - selling private uninvested money into distressed • Pantheon and - equity assets debt in a stark • Lexington partners – indication of just how dysfunctional RBS hires UBS to sell its almost £500mm of • the buy-out investments in private equity funds business has become amid the $134Bn of private equity assets just on the • meltdown in credit balance sheet of 6 big money banks and AIG markets. Source: super return conference Berlin, Germany • Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 2009 12 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 13. SMART MONEY GOES TO FLORIDA  Terra Firma Capital Partners, increases assets under mngmnt fr €2bn to €11bn, w/ about 80% of its portfolio biz revenues from U.S.  SMART MONEY GOES TO THE U.S. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 2009
  • 14. CDS CLEANING SERVICE Scott L. Podvin: European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 15. HEDGE FUND LIQUIDATIONS-- “THE GREAT LIQUIDATION”  - Industry size  The industry Managed approx. $2.5T at its peak in the summer of 2008.[1]  Global credit crunch has caused assets under management (AUM) to fall sharply through a combination of trading losses and the withdrawal of assets from funds by investors.[2] Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 16. OFFSHORE HEDGE FUNDS  At end-2007, 52% of the number of hedge funds were registered offshore.  Most popular offshore locations:  Cayman Islands (57%);  British Virgin Islands (16%) and;  Bermuda (11%).  The other offshore centers are the Isle of Man and Mauritius. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin
  • 17. ONSHORE HEDGE FUNDS  The US was the most popular onshore location (with funds mostly registered in Delaware) accounting for 65% of the number of onshore funds, followed by Europe with 31%.[3]  HUGE OUTFLOWS, NO INFLOW  OPPORTUNITY IS HIDDEN IN THE OUTFLOW! Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin
  • 18. HEDGE FUND LIQUIDATION SALES  Now large numbers of funds are accelerating or preparing plans to hand back cash to investors. These funds include:   Drake Management, the New York manager,  Centaurus Capital in London,  London Diversified Fund Management and many convertible bond specialists, including Howard Fischer‘s Basso Capital in Stamford, Connecticut, and Jeremy Herrmann‘s Ferox Capital Management in London. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin
  • 19. TARGET PRACTICE HIT THE HEDGE DE SHAW – LARGEST US HEDGE FUND -- APPOINTS INDEPENDENT Funds without independent  ADMINISTRATOR administrators: 1) ESL Investments, run by  Eddie Lampert MILLENIUM MNGMNT, 2) Renaissance Technologies,  $11Bn NY HEDGE FUND, run by billionaire Jim Simons APPTS LONDON‘S 3) Chicago Citadel, GLOBEOP, AS IND. run by Ken Griffin ADMIN 4) SAC CAPITAL, run by billionaire Steven Cohen 5) Cerberus 6) HBK Capital, Dallas, Tx 7) Caxton Associates, run by billionaire Bruce UNION BANCAIRE PRIVEE, The 2d Kovner Biggest Inv. in Hedge Funds (& a These are the targets!!! major loser from Madoff), warns others to appoint indep. admins These guys should be selling soon! Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 20. TIME FOR A MARKET STABILITY REGULATOR Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 21. PRIV. EQUITY FIRMS MAKE THE BEST SELLERS/JV PARTNERS 1 The Carlyle Group Washington DC $ 32.5 16 Hellman & Friedman San Fran $ 12.0 2 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts New York $ 31.1 17 CCMP Capital NY $ 11.7 3 Goldman Sachs Princ Invmt Area NY $ 31.0 18 Gen. Atlantic Greenwich, CT $ 11.4 4 The Blackstone Group New York $ 28.36 19 Silver Lake Prtnrs Menlo Park, CA $ 11.0 5 TPG Capital Fort Worth $ 23.5 20 Teachers' Priv Capital Toronto $ 10.78 6 Permira London $ 21.47 21 EQT Partners Stockholm $ 10.28 7 Apax Partners London $ 18.85 22 1st Reserve Corp Greenwich, CT$ 10.1 8 Bain Capital Boston $ 17.3 23 American Capital Bethesda, MD $ 9.57 9 Providence Equity Partners Prov, RI $ 16.36 24 Charterhouse Cap Prtnrs London $ 9.0 10 CVC Capital Partners London $ 15.65 25 Lehman Bros Priv. Eq. NY $ 8.5 11 Cinven London $ 15.07 26 Candover London $ 8.29 12 Apollo Management New York $ 13.9 27 Fortress Invstmnt Group NY $ 8.26 13 3i Group London $ 13.37 28 Sun Cap. Prtnrs Boca Raton, FL $ 8.0 14 Warburg Pincus New York $ 13.3 29 BC Partners London $ 7.9 15 Terra Firma Capital Partners London $ 12.9 30 Thomas H. Lee Partners Boston $ 7.5 Scott L. Podvin IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference: 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 22. Private Equity Fund Diagram Scott L. Podvin IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 23. MATURING & ROBUST 2DRY MARKET FOR SELLERS OF PRIVATE EQUITY ASSETS  Driven by strong  Types of Secondary Transactions demand for private equity exposure, a sig. amount of 2.1 capital has been Sale of committed to LP Ints dedicated secondary market funds from investors 2.2 Sale looking to increase of and diversify their Direct private equity Ints exposure Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 24. FOUR POCKETS OF DEMAND London-based private 1.Opportunity Funds that have been equity house Benson established to buy real estate Elliot Capital Management has equity closed Benson Elliot 2.Newer Opp. Funds that have been Real Estate Partners III, a pan-European created as dedicated debt distressed real estate investors fund. The fund had a target size of €500 3.Private Equity looking at real million at its 2008:Q3 launch, and has estate debt managed to raise 4.Real Estate Companies buy back around €510 million, officials at the firm their own debt or debt of others said. Scott L. Podvin IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 25. What Should An Investor Do? • Core funds, particularly newer vintage funds, will begin to see more attractive pricing for acquisitions. • Existing core assets will begin to see the benefit of slowing development as we move into 2009-10. • REITs in US, Europe and Asia take a beating during 2007-08. So, we are approaching the time for pension funds, endowments, REITS, and other qualified investors to rebalance/add to real estate positions. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference  April 6-7, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin 
  • 26. Capital Market Conditions Drive Outlook • Capital Markets are closed • European Recession Deepening and UE rising • Europe's recession risks lasting into 2010 • US deals dropped from 154 to • IMF is expected to 99 while UK deals fell from 74 to • European Central Bank's decision last borrow $100Bn from 50 week to revise downwards its 2010 Japan and may even growth forecast for eurozone countries • Securitization trusts hold $1.5T issue bonds, an from 1 per cent to zero. unprecedented step in of subprime and alt-A loans, • Since the world financial crisis exploded its 64-yr history $400B of which are delinquent in September, three European • Russia to supervise a • 5 Canadian Banks –RBC, governments have fallen - in Belgium, consolidation plan Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank Latvia and Iceland, which is not a EU that would see the member but could soon apply to join. of Nova Scotia, Canadian number of banks cut Imperial Bank and Bank of from 1,100 to 500. • Europe risks being the last region to pull Montreal –put investment banks itself out of recession unless it can • Global financial under same umbrella present a unified front on the economic tsunami batters Hong crisis. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Kong, as it falls into Distressed Real Estate Conference recession • Germany sees sharp (20.7% (Jan – Jan)) 6-7 April 09 drop in exports, the driver for the region’s spodvin@post.harvard.edu; largest economy. 26 http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 27. 2009 is Going to be Painful for Many Source: Cartoonbank.com Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April 2009: www.TheCrestLife.com spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 28. BALKANIZATION OF EUROPEAN FINANCE? • Growth slows and region may Recession is here. fall into recession • European CDS market • Is it different this time or is overrun by PIIGS – How deep and how long? is Asia in denial? Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain • Warnings signs from Hong Kong & Vietnam, slower growth showing in Australia and Japan, although China and India forge ahead • IMF bails out Eastern Europe – Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia -- • FDIC had $18.8Bn in depo ins fund at and Ukraine, Latvia, Hungary & end of 4 th qtr to protect about $4.8T of Serbia ins deposits • Economic risks spike for Germany, • 14 banks have failed this yr, bringing Spain, UK, Ireland & certain total to 35 since Jly ―emerging‖ states • At end of 4th qtr, 252 banks and thrifts • Spain‘s Unemployment reaches on govt‘s problem list (534 banks Sovereign 15% failed in 1989) Defaults: about ¼ • Banks are charging fees of 2.5 to 3.5%• Spain‘s economic miracle is a if S&Ps rated mirage‖ : 1mm unsold new homes. on ave for a solid issuer n the current sovereigns are on market. • RBS reports £24.1bn loss for 2008-- negative outlook – largest in British corporate history – • Unemployment ____________ the highest after suffering heavy losses from hostile takeover of ABN AMRO, the • Banks are syndicating more risk proportion ever Dutch lender (laying off 50 to 75%) Scott L. Podvin: European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 28 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 29. CRISIS STARTS IN U.S. BUT TURNS INTO CATASTROPHE IN & AROUND EUROPE Russian Public and private institutions need to refinance $117.1Bn in bank loans and bonds this year • Ireland bails out two largest lenders, Allied Irish Banks and Bank of • Regulators will continue to Ireland, after it require that banks maintain nationalized Anglo Irish a min. 6% Tier 1 capital • China‘s Export‘s Bank, the 3rd largest bank. ratio, 3% of which should Plunge 17.5%, come from common stock. • Belgium‘s Fortis gets but remains nationalized and sold to resilient, as • Emergency Economic BNP Paribas of France trade surplus Stabilization Act of 2008 hovers at • Britain in deep recession • One in 4 banks not $39.1Bn and could shrink by as profitable in 2008, highest • Japan shows its much as 4% in 1st ½ yr – level in 25 yrs economy pound sank as much as contracted • Dollar index rises 3% vs. the dollar 12.7% on a • Poland‘s Zloty falls 14% seasonally vs. euro adjusted annualized basis Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference in the 4th Qtr 6-7 April 09 29 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 30. RECOVERY CHECKLIST: ● Bank guarantees – In the works: Among EU initiatives  to combat the crisis are: €2,500bn ● A recovery plan costing ● Aid for central and €200bn ($263m, £188bn), of eastern Europe – a which €170bn stems from €25bn facility, of which national governments €6.5bn is already being ● Spending by means of disbursed to Hungary ―automatic stabilisers‖ (unemployment benefits and and €3.1bn to Latvia other social security ● Support for the car payments) worth about industry – €7bn in loans €200bn expected from the  Recapitalising banks – European Investment €300bn Bank Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 31. UNITED KINGDOM 1. London is Europe‘s leading centre for hedge fund managers, with three- quarters of European hedge fund investments, about $400bn (£200bn), at the end of 2007. 2. Unemployment has soared to above 2m for the first time since 1997. 3. London won market share from continental exchanges and remained the most successful market in Europe for initial pubic offerings in 2008. 4. Britain is set to have the longest recession of all the major economies. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 32. UNITED KINGDOM 5. Britain will invest $73 Bn in its banks; 6. Britain decided that the Royal Bank of Scotland, Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley are, in effect, public corporations because the gov‘t has sig. control over their operations. 7.Ave. UK home is now £195,724, down more than £25,000 in the last year, according to DCLG. 8. House prices down: Ireland down 14.3% England down 11.8%. West Midlands down 14.1% London down 13.9%. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 33. OPPORTUNITY LIES BENEATH THE SURFACE RBS reports £24.1bn loss for 2008-- largest in British corporate history – after suffering heavy losses from hostile takeover of ABN AMRO, the Dutch lender Lloyds– including HBOS -- in worse shape than RBS after purchasing Halifax Bank of Scotland – UK govt‘s stake NOW reaches 77% Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 34. Angela Merkel Backs Germany‘s Banks GERMANY OPTS FOR LOAN GUARANTEES, NOT DIRECT STAKE IN BANKS  In Berlin, German leaders unveiled a 480 billion package consisting mostly of loan guarantees, but no stimulus plan  Unlike the British blueprint, however, the plan announced by Ms. Merkel does not call for Berlin to acquire direct stakes in German banks.  Instead, the German approach offers €400Bn in guarantees for inter-bank loans and another €80Bn for direct injections of capital to restore weakened balance sheets and purchase the toxic, illiquid assets.  Reichmuth & Co are shutting Madoff-hit funds of hedge funds. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 In 2002 Germany introduced the single spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin European currency, the euro.
  • 35. GERMANY UPS THE ANTE TOO  The German gov‘t has done a lot with a €50Bn stimulus for consumption, €115Bn for stability to the real economy, and €400Bn in stabilizing financial institutions.  Many funds of hedge funds are already on the block or are being shut down with Deutsche Bank Closing its Topiary unit and Spain‘s BBVA closing its Altitude JV. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 36. VIVA LATO €360Bn FOR BAIL- FRANCE FRANCE AGREES OUTS  1MM French demonstrators staged W. Europe‘s biggest public protest  French gov‘t creates fund to guarantee debt for up to 5yrs  To obtain these funds, Banks pledge collateral, including debt currently not accepted as collateral by the ECB. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 37. SARKOZY VOTES AGAINST ADDITIONAL STIMULUS  In addition, a 2d French state- sponsored company will provide up to €40 Bn in direct capital injections to banks that request it, in exchange for handing over equity stakes in the debtor.  No short term stimulus plan.  The combined budget deficit of the eurozone‘s four biggest countries – Germany, France, Italy and Spain – will hit 6.4% of GDP in 2010, up from 5.8% in 2009. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 38. EURO-FACTS  The bailout packages are roughly similar in economic impact: percent of GDP in 1.3.3 Germany, 2.2.1 percent in France, and 3.2.9 percent in Britain, according to Capital Economics in London Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 39. EURO-FACTS CONT-  While Europe‘s biggest economies led the way:  Austria makes €100Bn available for recapitalizations and loan guarantees;  Spain insures up to €100Bn in bank debt; &  Netherlands threw €220Bn into the mix. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 40. BIG DEBT  By 2012, the ratio of gross public debt to gross domestic product could be: 117% in Italy;  97% in the US;  80% in France;  79% in Germany; &  75% in the UK.  224% in Japan  Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 41. ALL IN  For Germany, France, the Netherlands and Austria — countries whose combined economies are just over half the size of the United States‘ — state guarantees and capital injections reach 1.3 trillion euros, according to Holger Schmieding, chief European economist for Bank of America in London. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 42. WHO HAS THE MOST DEBT 1. Ukraine- $40Bn in loans with $28.8Bn in reserve 2. Hungary-$35Bn in loans with $31Bn in reserve 3. Turkey— $100Bn in loans with $70Bn in reserve 4. Asia—$775Bn in loans (highest external debt to roll over) Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 43. NOT MUCH BETTER IN THE U.S. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 44. Public Law 110-343/HR 1424 SON OF TARP IS BORNE  Effective October 3, 2008, this 169-page law created a $700 billion dollar Troubled Assets Relief Program under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (division A), and also enacted the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 (division B), Tax Extenders and Alternative Minimum Tax Relief Act of 2008 (division C) Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 45.
  • 46. Expenditures and Commitments 1. As of February 9, 2009, $388 billion had been allotted, and $296 billion spent, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Among the money committed, includes:[26] 2. $250 billion to purchase bank equity shares through the Capital Purchase Program ($195 billion spent); 3. $40 billion to purchase preferred shares of American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500) through the program for Systemically Significant Failing Institutions ($40 billion spent); 4. $20 billion to back any losses that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York might incur under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (none spent); Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 47. Expenditures and Commitments Cont. 4. $40Bn in stock purchases of Citigroup and Bank of America ($20Bn each) through the Targeted Investment Program ($40Bn spent) 5. $12.5Bn in loan guarantees for Citigroup ($5Bn) and Bank of America ($7.5Bn) through the Asset Guarantee Program (none spent); 6. $25Bn in loans to autos and their financing arms through the Automotive Industry Financing Program ($21 Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference billion spent) 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 48. TARP TIMELINE On Nov. 12, 2008, Sec. of the Treasury Hank Paulson indicates reviving the securitization market for consumer credit is a new priority On Dec. 19, 2008, President Bush, declares TARP funds may be spent on any program he deems necessary; and requests TARP funds to support the auto industry. On Jan. 15, 2009, Treasury issues interim final rules for reporting and record keeping. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 49. TARP TIMELINE CONT-  On 21/Jan/09, Treasury announced new regulations regarding disclosure and mitigation of conflicts of interest in TARP contracting.  On 5/Feb/09, U.S. Sen. approves changes to TARP, prohibiting firms receiving TARP funds from paying bonuses to their 25 highest-paid employees.  On 10/feb/09, Sec. Treasury Timothy Geithner outlined his plan to use $300Bn of which $50 billion for foreclosure mitigation and the rest to fund private investors to buy toxic assets from banks. Scott L. Podvin IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 50. BUY A TOASTER, GET A FREE BANK Scott L. Podvin IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 51.
  • 52. NATIONALIZING THE BANKING SYSTEM Total losses now exceed impact of RTC Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference 6-7 April 09 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 53. Lender’s Brace for Global Cooling PRE-CREDIT CRISIS TODAY 2008 MAX LOAN TO VALUE/ 70%-75% 60% LOAN TO COST MIN DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE 1.05x 1.20x RATIO Borrowers Pro forma NOI Current in-Place NOI NOI UNDERWRITING 85-125 bps 250-350 bps SPREADS Sized using Sized using Amortizing DSCR LOAN PROCEEDS I/O DSCR 3 Years I/O on 10 Years I/O AMORTIZATION 10 Year Loan Requires Structuring (holdbacks, Minimal LOAN REQUIREMENTS earn outs, TI escrows) SYNDICATION RISK (Large Underwritten, Lead Bank Lender Best Efforts, Borrower Loans) Scott L. Podvin IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference, 6-7 April, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 54. NOW THAT I‘VE FOUND MY PEARL, THE UNIVERSE IS MY OYSTER
  • 55. So, How Should I Price Non-Core Real Estate:  Identify components of asset-level returns,  Understand impact of financial leverage,  Examine effects of transaction costs; and  Examine effects of JV structures. Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference April 6-7, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 56. REAL ESTATE FUNDS – THE ANATOMY OF THE DEAL Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference April 6-7, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dv in
  • 57. What to Look for in a REAL ESTATE FUND  Experience  Skills  Contacts  Practical problem solving  Reputation  Team  Capacity  $$ Balance Sheet $$ Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference April 6-7, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 58. THE CHEMISTRY COUNTS Alignment of Interests: FUND & REAL ESTATE COMPANY  Fund Objectives  Fund Life  Leverage and Financing  Guarantees  Management Style and Control  Tax Considerations  Dealing with Unexpected Issues Scott L. Podvin: IMN’s European Distressed Real Estate Conference April 6-7, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 59. BUSINESS PLAN  We will acquire, own & operate multi-family residential properties. We plan to own five (5) multi-family residential  properties. We will acquire additional properties meeting  certain objectives described in our prospectus in the section entitled ‗‗Investment Guidelines.‘‘ We plan to finance the acquisition of these add‘l  properties mostly through banks No commitments from any lenders with respect to  a credit facility at this time. Scott L. Podvin: IMN‘s European Distressed Real Estate Conference April 6-7, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
  • 60.  Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC www.TheCrestLife.com  spodvin@post.harvard.edu  Cell: (305) 793-5762  Fax: (305) 665-3971 