Harvard University Graduate School of DesignDistressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structuresto Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities July 22-23, 2009 By:  Scott L. Podvin, Managing DirectorThe Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCspodvin@post.harvard.eduwww.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
OPPORTUNITIES PANELAmong the questions to be discussed: Opportunities currently available; Opportunities that will be available;How to source, underwrite and execute. Where is capital coming from?Panelists:Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director, The Crest At Waterford Lakes, LLCGentry Hoit, Atlantic Assets GroupCia Buckley, Dune CapitalJonathan G. Davis, The Davis Companies
Markets With Best Investment Potential• What is your investment horizon? (5 years, 8 years?)• Are you IRR-driven?• These are the characteristics to look for in a target market:Strong long-term high-wage job potentialDeep discounts Finished, vacant to declineLong-term land/VDL constraintsIn-migration (demand) potential Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Finding the Best Markets for Your Investment CriteriaWhere are you on the risk-return spectrum? Want high return? You’ll need to look in the “bubble markets”!Miami, AZ, Las Vegas, CaliforniaIf you are content with a more modest return, and seek to avoid a falling knife, you can consider some non-bubble marketsScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Criteria for Picking Potentially High-Return MarketsStrong long-term high-wage job potentialDeep discounts Long-term land constraintsIn-migration (demand) potential Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Transaction SummaryFrom January through AprilBased on independent reports of properties and portfolios $5 million and greater. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.
Most Active Marketsdeals reported closed in past 12 months valued at $20 mil. or greater©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Where’s the DemandY-t-D vol. by property type   $ Bil %  Change  Q2 %  ChangeOffice                                   $28.37              -71% -75%Industrial                                5.95                -77% -83%Retail                                     13.97               -66% -77%Apartment                              6.45               -80% -75%Hotel                                        3.71               -81% -77%Dev Site                                 18.54               -69% -62%Grand Total                        $76.99               -72% -73%©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
WHO’S BUYINGdeals reported closed in past 12 months valued at $20 mil. or greater©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.
WHO IS SELLINGSWFsHEDGE & OPPORTUNITY FUNDSREITSPRIVATE EQUITY FIRMSPENSION FUNDSENDOWMENTSSPECIAL SERVICERS/MASTER SERVICERSREAL ESTATE COMPANIESScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
United States Troubled AssetsAssets#PropsVol (mil)Troubled                     4,444                $85,649.7 Restruct'd/Modified    711                $16,217.7 Lender REO                   719                $10,332.3 Current Distress          5,874              $112,199.7 Resolved                          542              $9,517.5 Total6,416$121,717.1©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HEDGE FUND LIQUIDATIONSIndustry Managed approx. $2.5TNo. of hedge funds managing more than $1Bn fell by more than 40%1,471 funds, or roughly 15% of the hedge fund industry, were liquidatedMore than 775 funds closed in the final quarter of 2008Per Trac Financial SolutionsScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
THE GREAT LIQUIDATION$200Bn to be withdrawn in 2009$155Bn was taken out in 2008This cycle will likely see more liquidations than in the last three combined, said Steven Smith, global head of leveraged finance at UBS in NY.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
WHO IS LIQUIDATING Drake Management,  Centaurus Capital, London Diversified Fund Management Basso Capital, Ferox Capital ManagementNorwich Union’s £2.8Bn unit-linked vehicle forced to closeThe Man Group, the world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund manager, said net outflows by institutions were about $4.2BnScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HARD TIMES HIT HEDGESFortress Investment Group places restrictions on redemptions. BlackstoneOch-Ziff Capital ManagementCerberus and Citadel are facing tougher times, as well.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
PRIVATE EQUITY UNLOADSRBS Hires UBS To Sell £500mm Of Investments In Private Equity Funds$134bn Of Private Equity Assets On The Balance Sheet 5 Of 6 Big Money Banks And AIGAIGselling Tokyo landmark near Imperial Palace. GE JOINS THE LIST OF SELLERSJapanese companies start selling properties to meet  	financing needs, says EijiSakaguchi, head of real estate 	banking at Morgan Stanley in JapanSource: super return conference Berlin, GermanyScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Private Equity Fund DiagramScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
MATURING & ROBUST 2DRY MARKETFOR SELLERS OF PRIVATE EQUITY ASSETSTypes of Secondary Transactions 2.1 Sale of Limited Partnership Interests 2.2 Sale of Direct InterestsScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
REITS UNLOAD REITS among 1st to sell properties  Dow Jones Equity ALL REIT Total Return Index, which tracks 113 stocks, posted a negative total return of 32% in first quarter of 2009.Hotel Reits – down 38%Retail REITs down 39%Health Care REITS down 28%Self Storage REITs down 32%Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
SMALLER BANKS WILL GET HIT HARDERUnlike the housing meltdown, this crisis is likely to hit smaller banks the hardest. The four largest U.S. banks have an average exposure of 2 per cent to commercial real estate. The 30 to 100 largest banks have an average 12-per-cent exposure. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HUMPTY DUMPTY CAN’T PUT THE ZOMBIE BANKS BACK TOGETHER AGAINThe banking industry, which has a $1.8-trillion exposure to commercial real estate, could face losses of nearly $200-billion, according to Deutsche Bank real estate analyst Richard Parkus. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
FORECAST FOR DEFAULTS AND BANKRUPTCIES Debt defaults increase at double-digit rate next 24 months160 to 190 defaults in 2009 B/n 120 and 140 in 2010Typically, 2 out of 3 to 3 out of 4 defaults end in bankruptcies within 3 months. Thus, we are looking at:150 bankruptcies in 2009 and 100 in 2010. according to a bi-annual study in November 2008 by Bain Corporate Renewal Group. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
PROPERTY TYPESdeals reported closed in past 12 months valued at $20 mil. or greater©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
ASSET BUBBLE W/ CRATERING VALUESU.S. home owners lost a cumulative $3.3T in home values in 2008, according to Zillow. Since 2006, more than $6.1T in "value" has evaporated.Recipe for real estate bubble:  slice of mbs  into  a  bowl of cdos and (add) another layer of cdos on topScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Foreclosure Tsunami
NEXT SHOE TO DROPThere were 5,315 U.S. commercial properties in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy at the end of June, more than twice the number at the end of 2008, with hotels and retail among the most “problematic,” Real Capital Analytics Inc. said in a report.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATECRISIS JUST BEGINNINGA wave of loans made during the boom years of the past decade are now coming due, including roughly $400-billion worth this year and more than $1.8-trillion by 2012, according to the Washington-based Real Estate Roundtable. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
NEW YORK EPICENTER OFCOMMERCIAL RE CRISISThe epicenter of the commercial real estate crisis is New York, where nearly $8-billion worth of commercial properties – mainly office towers – are in various stages of financial distress. Many office towers with significant vacancies, in Manhattan and elsewhere, are being unloaded at “fire sale” discounts of up to 70%. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Office/Shopping CentersPrices for office towers and shopping centers are already down 35 to 45% from their peak in 2007, and further declines are likely, Mr. Parkus from Deutsche Bank said. That compares with a 32% peak-to-trough decline for house prices, according to the Case-Shiller home price index. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HOTELSAfter a dismal 2008, it seemed that hotel sales volume could not fall any further. Q1'09 transactions dropped to $644M, an 85% YOY decline and 98% off the 2007 market peak. Sales of limited service properties fell 77% from Q1’08 levels while full service properties have endured an 88% decline in sales volume. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HOTELSPer-unit pricing declined with the drop-off in volume as full and limited service hotels were down 1% and 4% YOY, respectively. Pricing for the top 25% of assets also fell to $169k/key at a 7.5% cap rate further underlining the particular strain on the typically higher-priced full service market.©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HOTELSSmaller deal size means smaller private players are dominating limited service hotel transaction activity and made up 69% of buyers for the past four quarters. Private investors also comprised 80% of sellers of limited service properties for the same period. Those investors most vulnerable to the freeze in capital markets, including REITs and other public companies, continue to be net sellers at a staggering 12:1 ratio. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HOTELSInstitutional and foreign players with a particular taste for full service assets have been net buyers by a ratio of over 3:2. As more hotel assets become distressed, these trends seem poised to continue; the big buyers of the boom will sell assets to meet obligations while institutions with strong balance sheets or smaller private players can take advantage of bargains.©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
CONCLUSIONSNo CMBS in 2009 YTD, and practically no debt available.What to CAP?  Trailing-12 makes no sense as NOI keeps falling.  Whose forecast do you use for your proforma? Cap rates are rising but no one knows where they will stabilize.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
CONCLUSIONS CONT.-Buyers expect many foreclosures and bank REOs, and don’t want to overpay, so for the time being remain on sidelinesKey markets need new price benchmarks to reset expectations.  Only then will buyers know their way.Buyers are assuming that when they do proceed, they need to be prepared to buy with all-equity.  Hence further upward pressure on Cap rates Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
FINAL THOUGHTSSeller financing will be prevalent in  transactions for the foreseeable futureWhen debt starts coming available (who knows when?), it will be more costlyMany groups have identified new equity sources, but not many transactions have closed so you must doubt whether they funded yet. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
SALES VOLUME FALLS OFF A CLIFFSales volume has fallen with uncanny consistency by 71% over the past twelve months as investor appetites have subsided in equal measure across the property spectrum.©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Downward Pressure on New Home Prices1) Lack of mortgage financing, 2) Job losses and lower incomes, 3) Smaller houses with lower specifications, 4) Need for many home buyers to sell another house before they buy, and 5) Massive REO competition as the option- ARM recast wave hits next year. Plus, as Treasury rates rise, there will be further downward pressure.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
ABOUT USPDG is an independently managed private equity real estate investment advisory company focused on real estate investment in the U.S., Europe and Asia. Our managed investments include development and redevelopment projects, joint-ventures and real estate operating companies in the office, retail, industrial, residential and hotel sectors.  We combine local knowledge of our real estate professionals with broad global perspectives to develop our strategies and identify investment opportunities. Our team of real estate professionals come from diverse backgrounds, with the full range of skills required to invest in and manage real estate and advise real estate funds. Our specialists apply their skills to ensure that we drive every one of our investments to perform at its optimum. PDG is independent of any broader financial services group. We can invest funds on behalf of a number of different organizations, including pension funds, insurance companies, government entities and financial institutions, as well as charities and endowments.
Take Care of Your FamilyScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCwww.TheCrestLife.comspodvin@post.harvard.eduCell: (305) 793-5762Fax: (305) 665-3971

Opportunities Panelv2

  • 1.
    Harvard University GraduateSchool of DesignDistressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structuresto Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities July 22-23, 2009 By: Scott L. Podvin, Managing DirectorThe Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCspodvin@post.harvard.eduwww.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 2.
    OPPORTUNITIES PANELAmong thequestions to be discussed: Opportunities currently available; Opportunities that will be available;How to source, underwrite and execute. Where is capital coming from?Panelists:Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director, The Crest At Waterford Lakes, LLCGentry Hoit, Atlantic Assets GroupCia Buckley, Dune CapitalJonathan G. Davis, The Davis Companies
  • 3.
    Markets With BestInvestment Potential• What is your investment horizon? (5 years, 8 years?)• Are you IRR-driven?• These are the characteristics to look for in a target market:Strong long-term high-wage job potentialDeep discounts Finished, vacant to declineLong-term land/VDL constraintsIn-migration (demand) potential Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 4.
    Finding the BestMarkets for Your Investment CriteriaWhere are you on the risk-return spectrum? Want high return? You’ll need to look in the “bubble markets”!Miami, AZ, Las Vegas, CaliforniaIf you are content with a more modest return, and seek to avoid a falling knife, you can consider some non-bubble marketsScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 5.
    Criteria for PickingPotentially High-Return MarketsStrong long-term high-wage job potentialDeep discounts Long-term land constraintsIn-migration (demand) potential Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 6.
    Transaction SummaryFrom Januarythrough AprilBased on independent reports of properties and portfolios $5 million and greater. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 7.
    Most Active Marketsdealsreported closed in past 12 months valued at $20 mil. or greater©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 8.
    Where’s the DemandY-t-Dvol. by property type $ Bil % Change Q2 % ChangeOffice $28.37 -71% -75%Industrial 5.95 -77% -83%Retail 13.97 -66% -77%Apartment 6.45 -80% -75%Hotel 3.71 -81% -77%Dev Site 18.54 -69% -62%Grand Total $76.99 -72% -73%©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 9.
    WHO’S BUYINGdeals reportedclosed in past 12 months valued at $20 mil. or greater©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 10.
    WHO IS SELLINGSWFsHEDGE& OPPORTUNITY FUNDSREITSPRIVATE EQUITY FIRMSPENSION FUNDSENDOWMENTSSPECIAL SERVICERS/MASTER SERVICERSREAL ESTATE COMPANIESScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 11.
    United States Troubled AssetsAssets#PropsVol (mil)Troubled 4,444 $85,649.7 Restruct'd/Modified 711 $16,217.7 Lender REO 719 $10,332.3 Current Distress 5,874 $112,199.7 Resolved 542 $9,517.5 Total6,416$121,717.1©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 12.
    HEDGE FUND LIQUIDATIONSIndustryManaged approx. $2.5TNo. of hedge funds managing more than $1Bn fell by more than 40%1,471 funds, or roughly 15% of the hedge fund industry, were liquidatedMore than 775 funds closed in the final quarter of 2008Per Trac Financial SolutionsScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 13.
    THE GREAT LIQUIDATION$200Bnto be withdrawn in 2009$155Bn was taken out in 2008This cycle will likely see more liquidations than in the last three combined, said Steven Smith, global head of leveraged finance at UBS in NY.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 14.
    WHO IS LIQUIDATINGDrake Management, Centaurus Capital, London Diversified Fund Management Basso Capital, Ferox Capital ManagementNorwich Union’s £2.8Bn unit-linked vehicle forced to closeThe Man Group, the world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund manager, said net outflows by institutions were about $4.2BnScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 15.
    HARD TIMES HITHEDGESFortress Investment Group places restrictions on redemptions. BlackstoneOch-Ziff Capital ManagementCerberus and Citadel are facing tougher times, as well.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 16.
    PRIVATE EQUITY UNLOADSRBSHires UBS To Sell £500mm Of Investments In Private Equity Funds$134bn Of Private Equity Assets On The Balance Sheet 5 Of 6 Big Money Banks And AIGAIGselling Tokyo landmark near Imperial Palace. GE JOINS THE LIST OF SELLERSJapanese companies start selling properties to meet financing needs, says EijiSakaguchi, head of real estate banking at Morgan Stanley in JapanSource: super return conference Berlin, GermanyScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 17.
    Private Equity FundDiagramScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 18.
    MATURING & ROBUST2DRY MARKETFOR SELLERS OF PRIVATE EQUITY ASSETSTypes of Secondary Transactions 2.1 Sale of Limited Partnership Interests 2.2 Sale of Direct InterestsScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 19.
    REITS UNLOAD REITSamong 1st to sell properties Dow Jones Equity ALL REIT Total Return Index, which tracks 113 stocks, posted a negative total return of 32% in first quarter of 2009.Hotel Reits – down 38%Retail REITs down 39%Health Care REITS down 28%Self Storage REITs down 32%Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 21.
    Scott L. Podvin,Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 23.
    SMALLER BANKS WILLGET HIT HARDERUnlike the housing meltdown, this crisis is likely to hit smaller banks the hardest. The four largest U.S. banks have an average exposure of 2 per cent to commercial real estate. The 30 to 100 largest banks have an average 12-per-cent exposure. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 24.
    HUMPTY DUMPTY CAN’TPUT THE ZOMBIE BANKS BACK TOGETHER AGAINThe banking industry, which has a $1.8-trillion exposure to commercial real estate, could face losses of nearly $200-billion, according to Deutsche Bank real estate analyst Richard Parkus. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 25.
    FORECAST FOR DEFAULTSAND BANKRUPTCIES Debt defaults increase at double-digit rate next 24 months160 to 190 defaults in 2009 B/n 120 and 140 in 2010Typically, 2 out of 3 to 3 out of 4 defaults end in bankruptcies within 3 months. Thus, we are looking at:150 bankruptcies in 2009 and 100 in 2010. according to a bi-annual study in November 2008 by Bain Corporate Renewal Group. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 26.
    PROPERTY TYPESdeals reportedclosed in past 12 months valued at $20 mil. or greater©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 27.
    ASSET BUBBLE W/CRATERING VALUESU.S. home owners lost a cumulative $3.3T in home values in 2008, according to Zillow. Since 2006, more than $6.1T in "value" has evaporated.Recipe for real estate bubble: slice of mbs into a bowl of cdos and (add) another layer of cdos on topScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 29.
  • 30.
    NEXT SHOE TODROPThere were 5,315 U.S. commercial properties in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy at the end of June, more than twice the number at the end of 2008, with hotels and retail among the most “problematic,” Real Capital Analytics Inc. said in a report.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 31.
    Scott L. Podvin,Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 32.
    COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATECRISISJUST BEGINNINGA wave of loans made during the boom years of the past decade are now coming due, including roughly $400-billion worth this year and more than $1.8-trillion by 2012, according to the Washington-based Real Estate Roundtable. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 33.
    NEW YORK EPICENTEROFCOMMERCIAL RE CRISISThe epicenter of the commercial real estate crisis is New York, where nearly $8-billion worth of commercial properties – mainly office towers – are in various stages of financial distress. Many office towers with significant vacancies, in Manhattan and elsewhere, are being unloaded at “fire sale” discounts of up to 70%. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 34.
    Office/Shopping CentersPrices foroffice towers and shopping centers are already down 35 to 45% from their peak in 2007, and further declines are likely, Mr. Parkus from Deutsche Bank said. That compares with a 32% peak-to-trough decline for house prices, according to the Case-Shiller home price index. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 35.
    HOTELSAfter a dismal2008, it seemed that hotel sales volume could not fall any further. Q1'09 transactions dropped to $644M, an 85% YOY decline and 98% off the 2007 market peak. Sales of limited service properties fell 77% from Q1’08 levels while full service properties have endured an 88% decline in sales volume. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 36.
    HOTELSPer-unit pricing declinedwith the drop-off in volume as full and limited service hotels were down 1% and 4% YOY, respectively. Pricing for the top 25% of assets also fell to $169k/key at a 7.5% cap rate further underlining the particular strain on the typically higher-priced full service market.©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 37.
    HOTELSSmaller deal sizemeans smaller private players are dominating limited service hotel transaction activity and made up 69% of buyers for the past four quarters. Private investors also comprised 80% of sellers of limited service properties for the same period. Those investors most vulnerable to the freeze in capital markets, including REITs and other public companies, continue to be net sellers at a staggering 12:1 ratio. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 38.
    HOTELSInstitutional and foreignplayers with a particular taste for full service assets have been net buyers by a ratio of over 3:2. As more hotel assets become distressed, these trends seem poised to continue; the big buyers of the boom will sell assets to meet obligations while institutions with strong balance sheets or smaller private players can take advantage of bargains.©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 39.
    CONCLUSIONSNo CMBS in2009 YTD, and practically no debt available.What to CAP?  Trailing-12 makes no sense as NOI keeps falling.  Whose forecast do you use for your proforma? Cap rates are rising but no one knows where they will stabilize.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 40.
    CONCLUSIONS CONT.-Buyers expectmany foreclosures and bank REOs, and don’t want to overpay, so for the time being remain on sidelinesKey markets need new price benchmarks to reset expectations.  Only then will buyers know their way.Buyers are assuming that when they do proceed, they need to be prepared to buy with all-equity.  Hence further upward pressure on Cap rates Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 41.
    FINAL THOUGHTSSeller financingwill be prevalent in transactions for the foreseeable futureWhen debt starts coming available (who knows when?), it will be more costlyMany groups have identified new equity sources, but not many transactions have closed so you must doubt whether they funded yet. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 42.
    SALES VOLUME FALLSOFF A CLIFFSales volume has fallen with uncanny consistency by 71% over the past twelve months as investor appetites have subsided in equal measure across the property spectrum.©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 43.
    Downward Pressure onNew Home Prices1) Lack of mortgage financing, 2) Job losses and lower incomes, 3) Smaller houses with lower specifications, 4) Need for many home buyers to sell another house before they buy, and 5) Massive REO competition as the option- ARM recast wave hits next year. Plus, as Treasury rates rise, there will be further downward pressure.Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCHarvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvinTel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 44.
    ABOUT USPDG isan independently managed private equity real estate investment advisory company focused on real estate investment in the U.S., Europe and Asia. Our managed investments include development and redevelopment projects, joint-ventures and real estate operating companies in the office, retail, industrial, residential and hotel sectors.  We combine local knowledge of our real estate professionals with broad global perspectives to develop our strategies and identify investment opportunities. Our team of real estate professionals come from diverse backgrounds, with the full range of skills required to invest in and manage real estate and advise real estate funds. Our specialists apply their skills to ensure that we drive every one of our investments to perform at its optimum. PDG is independent of any broader financial services group. We can invest funds on behalf of a number of different organizations, including pension funds, insurance companies, government entities and financial institutions, as well as charities and endowments.
  • 45.
    Take Care ofYour FamilyScott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLCwww.TheCrestLife.comspodvin@post.harvard.eduCell: (305) 793-5762Fax: (305) 665-3971

Editor's Notes

  • #26 Debt defaults by companies with assets exceeding $100 million