1. GLOBAL VISION CREDIT
FUNDADVISED BY CAVENHAM CAPITAL LIMITED and SERAPHIM ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP
HIGH RISK ADJUSTED RETURNS
IN GLOBAL CREDIT
March 2016
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ISIN: KYG3935W1309 SEDOL: BYYQ3C4
2. Fund Overview
Global Vision aims at equity style returns by targeting mispriced credit instruments.
Our focus: high yield and EM special situations
Main investment themes will be cornered around the following:
Idiosyncratic risk – deep fundamental analysis
Low market correlation
No leverage
Asymmetric risk profile (market price dislocations discounting lower recovery values)
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3. Source: Bank for International Settlements – presentation by Claudio Borio 10 February 2016
Interest rates sink as debt soars
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More debt is not a substitute for demand!
Macro Overview
High and rising debt levels are not delivering economic growth – growth is stalled or declining
Central banks are fully engaged at the zero bound and are having to adopt increasingly aggressive unorthodox policy
QE/money printing appear to have lost potency and effectiveness
The traditional channel of bank lending is unable to transmit monetary stimulus effectively
4. 4
Markets are progressively replacing banks as a source of funding for companies - surge in USD denominated credit
to non-banks outside the United States
However the traditional marketmakers are unable to provide liquidity due to restrictive regulations
Where does this lead?
Price of Assets within the remit of Central Banks inflated : underlying risks not factored in
Increasing levels of defaults in the asset classes out of the remit of CBs: over USD 1trn debt globally
pricing a 50% default probability over the 5 year term (over 1000 bps spread)
EM credit highly sensitive to US monetary policy and commodity cycles
Poor liquidity increases market volatility
5. Opportunities and Capital Allocation
Full consideration of market risks offers the opportunity to participate in recovery at the most
senior level of the capital structure taking advantage of price dislocation and market volatility
Alpha will be generated by special situations with low market correlation:
Systemically important corporations hit by adverse cyclicality or political risk
Traditionally good businesses with an unsustainable capital structure
Established exporters in weak economies
Best in class corporates within distressed sectors
Returns will be sought with no or very low use of leverage
Buying assets with low dollar prices reduces downside risk
We prioritise capital preservation by pursuing asymmetric trades with limited downside
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6. Advantages of our approach
Downside protection and safety in lower dollar prices
Claim is on real assets – distress brings the underlying real asset closer
Versatility: entry and exit is easier for a smaller fund without moving market
Investable universe of assets is larger for a smaller fund
Discipline in focusing on specific, high value added situations
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7. Investment Process
Macro Overlay
•Identify where we are in the
cycle and assess visibility
•Identify technical market
drivers such as liquidity and
sentiment
Fundamental Research
Comprehensive
assessment of
individual risks
•Business Drivers
•Industry Dynamics
•Management
•Country Risk
•Financial Metrics
Portfolio Construction
Top down and bottom-up
factors both drive the optimal
allocation of capital
•Diversification Targets
•Beta Objectives
•Issuer Weights
•Portfolio Liquidity
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8. Trade - example
Samarco Mineracoes bonds 4.125% 2022 (US$1bn outstanding)
Brazilian iron ore producer
Top 10 exporter
50% owned by BHP Billion / 50% by Vale
2014 revenues: US$2.7bn 2014 net profit: US$1bn
November 2015 – Tragic dam accident in Minas Gerais – 17 fatalities
Bonds traded down to 35% of face value – 22% yield (December 2015/January 2016)
Extensive action taken by Fund to recover environmental damage
Full support from shareholders
2 March – deal reached with Brazilian government to create US$5bn restoration fund
Bonds traded up to 60% of face value (March 2016)
Difficult to imagine that Vale and BHP could do anything other than support Samarco in every
way, including financially
Underlying fundamentals extremely strong
Cash to pay all obligations for years – despite disaster recovery costs
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9. Bruce Goodwin
Bruce (56) is a highly experienced emerging
market trader and portfolio manager, with a
strong all-round skill-set and global macro
perspective.
Bruce is a veteran of the credit markets
beginning his career in 1982 with SG Warburg
& Co. He moved to Chemical Bank in 1994 and
was a leading trader within the emerging
market debt team at Chase Manhattan,
following its merger with Chemical Bank in
1996.
In 1999 he became a founding partner of Hydra
Capital, a distressed debt hedge fund focused
on emerging markets. In 2001 he joined Credit
Suisse in a proprietary trading role, profitably
navigating the Argentine crisis and the
recovery in Russia.
In 2003 he returned to the buy side as a fund
manager at Cavenham Capital, and at Armored
Wolf where he was Portfolio Manager from
2009 to 2011. In addition from 2007 to 2015
Bruce managed Global Vision’s USD special
situations fund (the predecessor to the existing
fund). Bruce delivered a profitable
performance in 2008 during the most difficult
period of the 2008-09 financial crisis.
Luca Villanti
Luca (43) is a highly experienced accountant and credit
analyst, with a strong background in high yield debt.
He started his career as a chartered accountant in Italy
advising SMEs on M&A and general corporate finance.
Luca advised several leading Italian companies in the
pharmaceutical, energy and luxury goods sectors.
In 2000 he moved abroad working as credit manager
for the international division of Intesa Sanpaolo, the
third largest banking group in Europe, arranging
bilateral and syndicate lending facilities for several
large Scandinavian and UK corporates.
Over the past 8 years Luca ran the High Yield and
Distressed portfolio for the proprietary desk of Allied
Irish Banks. The approach used to trade corporate
credit was based on fundamentals complemented
with an attentive consideration of macro
developments.
Through 2008, Luca achieved a zero default rate on his
long positions.
Luca is a chartered accountant in Italy and holds a
degree in Economics and Business Administration
from University of Rome, La Sapienza.
Adam Cleary
Adam (42) is a highly experienced investment manager
and entrepreneur, with a strong background in credit
analysis and a deep knowledge of emerging markets
and the dynamics of distressed debt in that context.
Adam started his career at Intercapital Securities in
London in 1995, broking emerging market debt in the
wake of the 1994 Mexican crisis. In 1997 Adam joined
Kleinwort Benson Limited, latterly Dresdner Bank, as a
proprietary trader on the emerging market desk,
where was involved in buying and restructuring
distressed bonds and loans following the Russian and
Asian crises in 1998-99. In 2000, he moved to Mizuho
Securities in a similar role in London before relocating
to the Hong Kong office in 2001. In 2003, Adam
joined ING Bank NV in London as Director of Emerging
Market Debt Research, heading a team of 5 analysts
covering Russia and CIS.
In 2005, Adam founded Cavenham Capital Limited,
where he established a specialist hedge fund focused
on frontier emerging market equities. In addition to
supporting the Global Vision Credit Fund Adam
continues to act as Chief Investment Officer of
Cavenham Capital Limited advising a number of
managed accounts focused on emerging market debt
and global macro.
Adam has a Masters in Economic History and a
BSc(Economics) from the London School of Economics.
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10. GLOBAL VISION Performance since inception (Bruce Goodwin)
-
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GV Performance vs Emerging Markets Credit Index
EMBIV Index BG - Global Vision BG - Armoured Wolf*
-
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GV Performance vs SPX 500
SPX Index BG - Global Vision BG - Armoured Wolf*
-
50
100
150
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
LV up to 2013* vs SPX 500
SPX Index LV
-
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
LV up to 2013* vs Markit Eur High Yield Index
Markit Iboxx Eur HY Index LV
* Data presented are indicative only since they refer to unaudited management accounts from Allied Irish Banks.
Performance since inception (Luca Villanti)
11. Summary
• Large market opportunity
• Specialised fund focused on distressed credit
• Experienced managers with complementary expertise and a track record of outperformance
through the cycle
• High risk adjusted returns
• Rigorous risk management framework
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12. The Fund is advised by 2 established UK FCA regulated investment management firms:
Seraphim Asset Management LLP is an asset management and advisory firm
specialising in bespoke investment solutions for high net worth individuals,
sophisticated investors and financial institutions. Seraphim is an appointed
representative of Met Facilities LLP, which
is regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.
Founded in 2005 to advise clients on emerging market investments,
Cavenham Capital Limited is an investment management firm based in
London and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority.
Investment advisors:
Appendix
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13. The Fund is supported by strong partners and service providers:
Global Prime Partners is a multi-award winning financial services firm based
in London that provides prime brokerage, execution, clearing and custody
services to hedge funds, broker-dealers, asset managers, family offices and
professional traders. GPP is regulated by the FCA.
Trinity is a leading fund administrator with offices in Dublin, Cyprus, the
Cayman Islands, New York and Brazil. Trinity is regulated by the Central Bank
of Ireland and the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.
Baker Tilly (Cayman) Ltd. is a leading firm of Chartered Accountants and
Auditors in the Cayman Islands, and is a member of the Baker Tilly
International group.
Service providers
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14. 14
Disclaimer
The information contained herein is confidential information regarding Global Vision Credit Fund SP Participating Shares (the “Fund”). By accepting this information
the recipient agrees that it, and its officers, directors and employees will use the information only to evaluate its potential interest in the Fund and for no other purpose
and will not divulge such information to any other party. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is prohibited. The information contained herein has
been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or any interest in the Fund or
any other Fund or to participate in any trading strategy. If any offer to purchase any interest in the Fund is made in due course it shall be made only pursuant to a
definitive Offering Memorandum prepared by or on behalf of the Fund which would contain material information not contained herein and which shall supersede this
information in its entirety. Any decision to invest in the Fund should be made only in compliance with and subject to the limitations imposed by applicable laws applying
to the ability to offer these securities to prospective investors in their relevant jurisdictions and after reviewing the definitive Offering Memorandum, conducting
investigations as deemed necessary by the investor and consulting the investor’s own investment, legal, accounting and tax advisors in order to make an independent
determination of the suitability and consequences of an investment in the securities.
The Fund cannot accept investments from any US person and this presentation is not for use by any US person. No registration statement has been filed with the United
States Securities and Exchange Commission or any U.S. State Securities Authority with respect to the shares of the Fund. None of the Shares in the Fund have been or will
be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “1933 Act”). None of the Shares in the Fund may be offered, sold, transferred, assigned or
delivered, directly or indirectly, in the United States of America, its territories and possessions, any State of the United States of America or the District of Columbia (the
“United States”), or to any U.S. Person as defined herein. In addition, Cavenham Capital Limited and the Fund have not been and will not be registered under the United
States Investment Fund Act of 1940, as amended (the “1940 Act”). None of the Shares in the Fund may be offered, sold, transferred, assigned or delivered, directly or
indirectly, to any person in circumstances which might result in Cavenham Capital Limited or the Fund incurring any liability to taxation or suffering any other
pecuniary disadvantages which they might not otherwise incur or suffer, or would result in them being required to register under the 1940 Act.
All information contained herein is subject to change without notice. Please refer to the definitive Offering Memorandum for a full list of risks.
This presentation is issued by Cavenham Capital Limited as Investment Advisor. Cavenham Capital Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct
Authority in the United Kingdom. Cavenham Capital Limited accepts responsibility for the contents of this presentation.
Cavenham Capital Limited
Registered in England Fund number 5482935.
Registered Office: 86-90 Paul Street, London EC2A 4NE