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RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA:
HOW IT WORKS
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
:~$ whoami
● Luigi Gubello by day
● @evaristegal0is by night
● Wannabe mathematician
● Linux user
● Python enthusiast
● Twitter addicted
● Cats lover
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
📅 Some important dates
● 9th Nov 2016: Trump wins 2016 election
● 10th Apr 2018: Zuckerberg testifies before Congress on
data scandal (Cambridge Analytica)
● 31st Jul 2018: FiveThirtyEight shares three million
Russian troll tweets
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
● 17th Oct 2018: Twitter releases the complete dataset of
Internet Research Agency tweets
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
What information has Twitter
shared?
● Information about the users
● Information about the tweets
● Huge archive of tweet media (videos and pics)
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
What information has Twitter not
shared?
● A lot of accounts are hashed
● Nothing about followers
● Nothing about changes in the accounts
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
🔧 Python modules I have used
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
● pandas
● csv
● langid
● re
● emoji
● matplotlib
● wordcloud
● seaborn
⚽ Goal
1. Was there Russian propaganda in Europe 🇪🇺 ?
2. Did the Internet Research Agency try to manipulate
information in Italy 󾓩 ?
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
Some numbers about the dataset
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
● There are 3.613
accounts
● The accounts were
created mainly in 2013
and 2014, two years
before the US election*
* Numbers based on version 1.0 of the dataset
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
The most used languages are:
English, Russian, German,
Ukrainian and Bulgarian.
There are:
● 2.384 English accounts (62,1%)
● 1.039 Russian accounts (27,1%)
● 111 German accounts (1,6%)
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
The most common words are:
● follow (203)
● love (128)
● conservative (121)
● life (119)
● Trump (103)
● MAGA (96)
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
9 million tweets from
2012 to 2018.
Interactions in 2016
and 2017 are
impressive:
● 30 million
● 25 million
● almost 2 million
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
Russian propaganda in the US 󾓦
Graph of English accounts by creation date [red lines]**
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
Most accounts were created
between May, 2013, and
September, 2014, two years
before the US election.
* Red lines represent the accounts with English as default language
** Numbers based on version 1.1 of the dataset
Volume of English tweets by month
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
Internet Research Agency
was very active in the US
between July 2014 and April
2017.
Russian strategy in the US 󾓦
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
● Fake local news accounts
● Sharing polarizing news
● Sharing daily and common
news (e.g. sport)
● Meme
● Interactions with trusted or
popular users (e.g. Trump,
journalists)
● Different languages in
different places
Russian propaganda in Europe 🇪🇺 ?
Numbers based on version 1.0 of the dataset
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
Russian propaganda in Germany 󾓨
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
Many German accounts were
created in October, 2015,
and July, 2016, two years
before German federal
election.
* Numbers based on version 1.1 of the datasetGraph of German accounts by creation date [red lines] *
Volume of German tweets by month
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
● 2016: Brexit
● 2017: federal election in
Germany
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
Most used hashtags are:
● Merkel
● Erdogan
● political parties
● Syria and refugees
● Brexit
● Trump
* Numbers based on the version 1.0 of the dataset
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
The most retweeted accounts
are trusted mainstream media
and journalists.
Did Internet Research Agency try to
manipulate information in Italy 󾓩 ?
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
Volume of Italian tweets by month *
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
There are 2.494 tweets and
17.882 retweets in Italian.
* Numbers based on version 1.1 of the dataset
Graph of Italian accounts by creation date [red lines]
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
The spike in March and April,
2017, was generated by only
nine coordinate accounts,
created on 6th March 2017.
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
These nine accounts posted
only retweets, therefore their
direct impact was irrelevant.
* Numbers based on version 1.0 of the dataset
📊 The pattern
Volume of Italian tweets by month for each account *
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
Two groups:
● Only active in March
● Also active in other
months
* Numbers based on version 1.1 of the dataset
Daily rhythm of each account
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
Eight accounts were more
active on Tuesday between
3 p.m. and 5 p.m. and
Wednesday between 8 a.m.
and 10 a.m..
Conclusion
● A sophisticated propaganda campaign took place in the
United States before the 2016 election
● There was a disinformation campaign in Germany,
especially before the federal election
● There was no Russian propaganda in Italy, but there was
a coordinate sub-network that shared Italian news for
unknown reasons
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
END
🦆
Thank you
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
Contacts
https://gubello.me
@evaristegal0is
luigigubello
luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com

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Russian propaganda: how it works

  • 1. RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA: HOW IT WORKS Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
  • 2. :~$ whoami ● Luigi Gubello by day ● @evaristegal0is by night ● Wannabe mathematician ● Linux user ● Python enthusiast ● Twitter addicted ● Cats lover Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
  • 3. 📅 Some important dates ● 9th Nov 2016: Trump wins 2016 election ● 10th Apr 2018: Zuckerberg testifies before Congress on data scandal (Cambridge Analytica) ● 31st Jul 2018: FiveThirtyEight shares three million Russian troll tweets Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
  • 4. ● 17th Oct 2018: Twitter releases the complete dataset of Internet Research Agency tweets Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
  • 5. What information has Twitter shared? ● Information about the users ● Information about the tweets ● Huge archive of tweet media (videos and pics) Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
  • 6. What information has Twitter not shared? ● A lot of accounts are hashed ● Nothing about followers ● Nothing about changes in the accounts Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
  • 7. 🔧 Python modules I have used Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com ● pandas ● csv ● langid ● re ● emoji ● matplotlib ● wordcloud ● seaborn
  • 8. ⚽ Goal 1. Was there Russian propaganda in Europe 🇪🇺 ? 2. Did the Internet Research Agency try to manipulate information in Italy 󾓩 ? Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
  • 9. Some numbers about the dataset Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com ● There are 3.613 accounts ● The accounts were created mainly in 2013 and 2014, two years before the US election* * Numbers based on version 1.0 of the dataset
  • 10. Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com The most used languages are: English, Russian, German, Ukrainian and Bulgarian. There are: ● 2.384 English accounts (62,1%) ● 1.039 Russian accounts (27,1%) ● 111 German accounts (1,6%)
  • 11. Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com The most common words are: ● follow (203) ● love (128) ● conservative (121) ● life (119) ● Trump (103) ● MAGA (96)
  • 12. Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com 9 million tweets from 2012 to 2018. Interactions in 2016 and 2017 are impressive: ● 30 million ● 25 million ● almost 2 million
  • 13. Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
  • 14. Russian propaganda in the US 󾓦 Graph of English accounts by creation date [red lines]** Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com Most accounts were created between May, 2013, and September, 2014, two years before the US election. * Red lines represent the accounts with English as default language ** Numbers based on version 1.1 of the dataset
  • 15. Volume of English tweets by month Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com Internet Research Agency was very active in the US between July 2014 and April 2017.
  • 16. Russian strategy in the US 󾓦 Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com ● Fake local news accounts ● Sharing polarizing news ● Sharing daily and common news (e.g. sport) ● Meme ● Interactions with trusted or popular users (e.g. Trump, journalists) ● Different languages in different places
  • 17. Russian propaganda in Europe 🇪🇺 ? Numbers based on version 1.0 of the dataset Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
  • 18. Russian propaganda in Germany 󾓨 Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com Many German accounts were created in October, 2015, and July, 2016, two years before German federal election. * Numbers based on version 1.1 of the datasetGraph of German accounts by creation date [red lines] *
  • 19. Volume of German tweets by month Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com ● 2016: Brexit ● 2017: federal election in Germany
  • 20. Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com Most used hashtags are: ● Merkel ● Erdogan ● political parties ● Syria and refugees ● Brexit ● Trump * Numbers based on the version 1.0 of the dataset
  • 21. Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com The most retweeted accounts are trusted mainstream media and journalists.
  • 22. Did Internet Research Agency try to manipulate information in Italy 󾓩 ? Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
  • 23. Volume of Italian tweets by month * Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com There are 2.494 tweets and 17.882 retweets in Italian. * Numbers based on version 1.1 of the dataset
  • 24. Graph of Italian accounts by creation date [red lines] Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com The spike in March and April, 2017, was generated by only nine coordinate accounts, created on 6th March 2017.
  • 25. Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com These nine accounts posted only retweets, therefore their direct impact was irrelevant. * Numbers based on version 1.0 of the dataset
  • 26. 📊 The pattern Volume of Italian tweets by month for each account * Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com Two groups: ● Only active in March ● Also active in other months * Numbers based on version 1.1 of the dataset
  • 27. Daily rhythm of each account Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com Eight accounts were more active on Tuesday between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m. and Wednesday between 8 a.m. and 10 a.m..
  • 28. Conclusion ● A sophisticated propaganda campaign took place in the United States before the 2016 election ● There was a disinformation campaign in Germany, especially before the federal election ● There was no Russian propaganda in Italy, but there was a coordinate sub-network that shared Italian news for unknown reasons Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com
  • 29. END 🦆 Thank you Speck & Tech - 4th October 2019 luigi.gubello [at] protonmail.com