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Lifestyle section, October 2, 2012




October 3-4, Bangkok   Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
Have you read the book?
               From Poverty with/via Power




                         Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
October 3-4, Bangkok
Electricity use and GDP (PPP)
 Gross Domestic Product (PPP) per capita per year in
              2009 (year 2000 US$)
 40000                                                         Trend line R2
                                                                                     North America
 35000                                                         = 0.95

 30000
                                          Europe
 25000
                                                                           World
 20000
                  Latin Am.                                                average
 15000
                                China
 10000
                                        Middle East
  5000
         0                 Asia (ex China)
Africa
             0           2000      4000          6000             8000     10000      12000     14000
                                Electricity use per capita per year (kWh)

  October 3-4, Bangkok                       Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
About The Future




June 12-14, 2012, Köln       Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
A challenge: everybody wants electricity
and even more electricity
In 20 years time: world electricity use will
double from 20 PWh to 40 PWh

Developing world, electric transport, gadgets, heat
pumps

‘What a great future for the Power Sector‘




                         50 watt                                 2000 watt
                                   Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  October 3-4, Bangkok
Wind power in Europe …. (Germany)
                       Capacity factor = 17.4%, peak factor 5.1




                       Statistical distribution wind power N-E Germany




October 3-4, Bangkok           Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
Wind output Denmark if 50% electricity
              from wind
                       7000

                       6000

                       5000
          Power (MW)




                       4000

                       3000

                       2000

                       1000

                          0
                              0.00   100.00   200.00   300.00   400.00      500.00    600.00   700.00   800.00   900.00   1000.00


                                              First 1000 hours of the year 2012


October 3-4, Bangkok                                    Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
Danish conventional power generation if
      50% of electricity from wind

                7000.00
                6000.00
                5000.00
                4000.00
   Power (MW)




                3000.00
                2000.00
                1000.00
                    0.00
                -1000.00 0.00   100.00   200.00     300.00     400.00     500.00   600.00   700.00   800.00   900.00   1000.00

                -2000.00                          First 1000 hours of the year 2012
                -3000.00
                -4000.00




 October 3-4, Bangkok                               Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
New dynamics due to solar PV
                           Steep peaks of short duration:
                1600
                           gas engines
                1400

                1200
 POWER ('MW')




                1000

                800                                                                    SOLAR
                                                                                       DEMAND
                600
                                                                                       GENERATORS
                400

                200

                   0
                       0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

                                        TIME of the day (h)

      October 3-4, Bangkok                     Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
Fast response needed
                    100

                    90

                    80
 Power output (%)




                    70
                                                                                   gas engine
                    60
                                                                                   GTCC
                    50

                    40                                                             steam plant

                    30

                    20

                    10

                     0
                          0   60   120     180             240         300   360    420

                                                 time (minute)


       October 3-4, Bangkok              Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
Effect of utilisation factor on capital costs
       Relative capital costs per kWh   30

                                        25
                                                                  ---------- gas engine power plant
                                                                  ---------- coal-fired power plant
                                        20                        ---------- nuclear power plant
                                        15

                                        10

                                        5

                                        0
                                             20   30   40         50          60         70   80   90   100

                                                            Utilisation factor (%)


 October 3-4, Bangkok                                       Jacob Klimstra Consultancy                    11
Smart power generation: efficient, flexible, fast, low costs

                                ultra-reliable electricity grid connection




 1             2            3         4           5             6            7   8   9   10




                                          ultra-reliable fuel supply



Multiple units in parallel run only
when needed


     October 3-4, Bangkok                      Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
CASCADING: Only run when it is really needed
                      50
                      45
                      40
fuel efficiency (%)




                      35
                      30
                      25
                                                                    cascading power plant
                      20
                      15                                            single generating unit
                      10
                      5
                      0
                           0    20   40   60       80         100            120   140   160   180
                                               Power output (MW)


             October 3-4, Bangkok              Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
Minimum maintenance costs
 specific maintenance costs (€cts/kWh)

                                         7

                                         6
                                                                               single generating unit
                                         5

                                         4                                     cascading power plant
                                         3

                                         2

                                         1

                                         0
                                             0   20   40   60       80         100            120   140   160   180
                                                            Power output (MW)



    October 3-4, Bangkok                                        Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
Energy is the Engine of the Economy

   ‘…………And Quality Engines are required
   for Quality Energy ……………’
                                                      ®©


 October 3-4, Bangkok   Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
San Antonio, Texas 4 x 6 x 9 MW = 216 MW
Flexible (fuel, power capacity)        Hot and Dry ambient conditions
Fast response
Energy efficient
Clean                                EXISTS ALREADY NOW !!!
Reliable
Available
Economic
Quick to build
Aesthetic




  October 3-4, Bangkok            Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
Delimara Power Plant, MALTA, 140 MW




     October 3-4, Bangkok
When are you a smart generation ????




Feelings                 Tools       Facts                     Memory Shift   Vision
  October 3-4, Bangkok           Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
Vision – Smart Power Generation




October 3-4, Bangkok   Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila

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Jacob Klimstra - Smart Power Generation

  • 1. Lifestyle section, October 2, 2012 October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 2. Have you read the book? From Poverty with/via Power Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila October 3-4, Bangkok
  • 3. Electricity use and GDP (PPP) Gross Domestic Product (PPP) per capita per year in 2009 (year 2000 US$) 40000 Trend line R2 North America 35000 = 0.95 30000 Europe 25000 World 20000 Latin Am. average 15000 China 10000 Middle East 5000 0 Asia (ex China) Africa 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Electricity use per capita per year (kWh) October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 4. About The Future June 12-14, 2012, Köln Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 5. A challenge: everybody wants electricity and even more electricity In 20 years time: world electricity use will double from 20 PWh to 40 PWh Developing world, electric transport, gadgets, heat pumps ‘What a great future for the Power Sector‘ 50 watt 2000 watt Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila October 3-4, Bangkok
  • 6. Wind power in Europe …. (Germany) Capacity factor = 17.4%, peak factor 5.1 Statistical distribution wind power N-E Germany October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 7. Wind output Denmark if 50% electricity from wind 7000 6000 5000 Power (MW) 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 900.00 1000.00 First 1000 hours of the year 2012 October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 8. Danish conventional power generation if 50% of electricity from wind 7000.00 6000.00 5000.00 4000.00 Power (MW) 3000.00 2000.00 1000.00 0.00 -1000.00 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 900.00 1000.00 -2000.00 First 1000 hours of the year 2012 -3000.00 -4000.00 October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 9. New dynamics due to solar PV Steep peaks of short duration: 1600 gas engines 1400 1200 POWER ('MW') 1000 800 SOLAR DEMAND 600 GENERATORS 400 200 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 TIME of the day (h) October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 10. Fast response needed 100 90 80 Power output (%) 70 gas engine 60 GTCC 50 40 steam plant 30 20 10 0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 time (minute) October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 11. Effect of utilisation factor on capital costs Relative capital costs per kWh 30 25 ---------- gas engine power plant ---------- coal-fired power plant 20 ---------- nuclear power plant 15 10 5 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Utilisation factor (%) October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra Consultancy 11
  • 12. Smart power generation: efficient, flexible, fast, low costs ultra-reliable electricity grid connection 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ultra-reliable fuel supply Multiple units in parallel run only when needed October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 13. CASCADING: Only run when it is really needed 50 45 40 fuel efficiency (%) 35 30 25 cascading power plant 20 15 single generating unit 10 5 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Power output (MW) October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 14. Minimum maintenance costs specific maintenance costs (€cts/kWh) 7 6 single generating unit 5 4 cascading power plant 3 2 1 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Power output (MW) October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 15. Energy is the Engine of the Economy ‘…………And Quality Engines are required for Quality Energy ……………’ ®© October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 16. San Antonio, Texas 4 x 6 x 9 MW = 216 MW Flexible (fuel, power capacity) Hot and Dry ambient conditions Fast response Energy efficient Clean EXISTS ALREADY NOW !!! Reliable Available Economic Quick to build Aesthetic October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 17. Delimara Power Plant, MALTA, 140 MW October 3-4, Bangkok
  • 18. When are you a smart generation ???? Feelings Tools Facts Memory Shift Vision October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila
  • 19. Vision – Smart Power Generation October 3-4, Bangkok Jacob Klimstra for Wartsila