This report initiates coverage on five zinc-focused mining companies that are well positioned to benefit from an upcoming supply shortfall in the zinc market. The report notes that zinc demand is growing due to its use in galvanizing steel and in alloys, but supply is stagnating. A significant amount of zinc supply is expected to come offline in the next two years, creating a material shortfall by 2014. The five companies covered - Trevali Mining, Canadian Zinc, Chieftain Metals, Foran Mining, and Rathdowney Resources - offer exposure to zinc through development projects and exploration assets, and all present catalysts over the next year that could increase their share prices.
Objective Capital's Global Resources Investment Conference 2011
Stationers' Hall, City of London
27-28 September 2011
Day 1- Session 6: Americas' focus
Speaker: George Cavey, Orko Silver
(TSX.V-AAL) Small cap lithium exploration & development company. Assets located in Clayton Valley (Nevada) and in the heart of Argentina;s lithium triangle. Award-winning team with strong record in making discoveries and building companies.Company has drilled lithium brine in multiple holes at Clayton Valley, adjacent to Albemarle's lithium brine operation, and is partnered with Orocobre, one of the world's largest lithium producers, on the Cauchari (Argentina) asset, which hosts a a near-surface resource with a large exploration target. Orocobre owns 31% of Advantage.
Objective Capital's Global Resources Investment Conference 2011
Stationers' Hall, City of London
27-28 September 2011
Day 1- Session 6: Americas' focus
Speaker: George Cavey, Orko Silver
(TSX.V-AAL) Small cap lithium exploration & development company. Assets located in Clayton Valley (Nevada) and in the heart of Argentina;s lithium triangle. Award-winning team with strong record in making discoveries and building companies.Company has drilled lithium brine in multiple holes at Clayton Valley, adjacent to Albemarle's lithium brine operation, and is partnered with Orocobre, one of the world's largest lithium producers, on the Cauchari (Argentina) asset, which hosts a a near-surface resource with a large exploration target. Orocobre owns 31% of Advantage.
Major Step Forward: Commerce Resources succeeds in producing marketable mixed...Stephan Bogner
Rare Earth Elements (REE) prices are sky-rocketing, reaching levels last seen during the 2011-boom. Back then, it became obvious to the Western world that the Chinese dominance in the REE sector needs to be broken to ensure a reliable source for the future. Only now are governments in the US, EU and Australia starting to act and providing funding for REE projects to accelerate new sources coming online in the next years, when a dramatically widening supply shortfall is anticipated.
With its Ashram REE & Fluorspar Deposit in Quebec, Commerce Resources Corp. owns one of the world‘s largest REE resources with one of the highest distributions on the rare earths needed for the production of permanent magnets in electric vehicles (EVs) and wind turbines: NdPr (neodymium and praseodymium).
Strong potential for discovery of niobium-tantalum deposit(s) of significance...Stephan Bogner
Saville Resources Inc. today announced the filing of an independent NI43-101 Technical Report on the Niobium Claim Group Property in Québec, Canada.
Shareholders and investors alike should take a close look at the “Conclusions and Recommendations“ section, which starts as follows:
“The Property is considered to have a strong potential for discovery of carbonatite hosted niobium-tantalum-(phosphate) deposit(s) of significance, as well as for fluorite. The Author considers niobium-tantalum to be of primary interest, with fluorspar (fluorite) and phosphate as secondary commodities.“
As successful investors in the mining space know by heart, it‘s the discovery of a deposit which provides the largest upside potential as this phase typically creates most shareholder value.
Objective Capital's Rare Earths, Speciality & Strategic Metals
Investment Summit 2012
Ironmongers' Hall, City of London
13-14 March 2012
Speaker: Gerry Clarke, International Lithium Alliance
Major Step Forward: Commerce Resources succeeds in producing marketable mixed...Stephan Bogner
Rare Earth Elements (REE) prices are sky-rocketing, reaching levels last seen during the 2011-boom. Back then, it became obvious to the Western world that the Chinese dominance in the REE sector needs to be broken to ensure a reliable source for the future. Only now are governments in the US, EU and Australia starting to act and providing funding for REE projects to accelerate new sources coming online in the next years, when a dramatically widening supply shortfall is anticipated.
With its Ashram REE & Fluorspar Deposit in Quebec, Commerce Resources Corp. owns one of the world‘s largest REE resources with one of the highest distributions on the rare earths needed for the production of permanent magnets in electric vehicles (EVs) and wind turbines: NdPr (neodymium and praseodymium).
Strong potential for discovery of niobium-tantalum deposit(s) of significance...Stephan Bogner
Saville Resources Inc. today announced the filing of an independent NI43-101 Technical Report on the Niobium Claim Group Property in Québec, Canada.
Shareholders and investors alike should take a close look at the “Conclusions and Recommendations“ section, which starts as follows:
“The Property is considered to have a strong potential for discovery of carbonatite hosted niobium-tantalum-(phosphate) deposit(s) of significance, as well as for fluorite. The Author considers niobium-tantalum to be of primary interest, with fluorspar (fluorite) and phosphate as secondary commodities.“
As successful investors in the mining space know by heart, it‘s the discovery of a deposit which provides the largest upside potential as this phase typically creates most shareholder value.
Objective Capital's Rare Earths, Speciality & Strategic Metals
Investment Summit 2012
Ironmongers' Hall, City of London
13-14 March 2012
Speaker: Gerry Clarke, International Lithium Alliance
South American Silver Corporate Presentationsoamsilver
South American Silver Corp. is a growth focused mineral exploration company creating value through the exploration and development of the Malku Khota Silver-Indium project in Bolivia, one of the world's largest undeveloped Silver and Indium deposits, and the large-scale Escalones Copper-Gold project in Chile.
In the February 25, 2011, the Investor's Digest of Canada featured on its front page Commerce Resources Corp. and its rare metal / rare earth projects.
1. MACKIE RESEARCH
SERVICE INDEPENDENT
THOUGHT GROWTH
MACKIE RESEARCH
SERVICE INDEPENDENT
THOUGHT GROWTH
M A C K I E R E S E A R C H
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16 August 2012
This report has been created by Analysts that are
employed by Mackie Research Capital Corporation,
a Canadian Investment Dealer. For further
disclosures, please see the last pages of this report.
Zinc
Top Names to the Supply Shortfall Ahead
INITIATING COVERAGE
TREVALI MINING CORP. (TV – TSX)
BUY | 12-Month Target: $2.00
Burgeoning Zinc Producer in Established Camps
CANADIAN ZINC CORP. (CZN – TSX)
SPECULATIVE BUY | 12-Month Target: $1.00
Poised for Production at Prairie Creek
CHIEFTAIN METALS INC. (CFB – TSX)
SPECULATIVE BUY | 12-Month Target: $5.50
On the Road to Production
FORAN MINING CORP. (FOM – TSXV)
SPECULATIVE BUY | 12-Month Target: $1.20
Growing Polymetallic Project in Saskatchewan
RATHDOWNEY RESOURCES LTD. (RTH – TSXV)
SPECULATIVE BUY | 12-Month Target: $1.25
Adding New Life to an Old Zinc District
MINING, BASE METALS
Matt O’Keefe
Analyst
416.860.8636
mokeefe@mackieresearch.com
Brandon Throop
Associate
416.860.7618
bthroop@mackieresearch.com
2.
3. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
www.mackieresearch.com Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead 1
M I N I N G , B A S E M E T A L S
ZINC: TOP NAMES TO SUPPLY SHORTFALL AHEAD
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The ongoing euro crisis and weak short-term outlook for western economies continue to weigh on equity markets and
commodities. However, for the longer-term investor, there are some excellent bargains to be had. Among base metals, zinc is
staging for its day in the sun due to very strong fundamentals, growing demand, and stagnating supply. Central to this thesis is
the significant amount of supply coming offline within the next two years, creating a shortfall that should become quite material
by 2014. In this report, we initiate coverage of five zinc-levered explorers/developers that show excellent value in the base metals
space and offer a number of near-term catalysts that should drive their stock prices up in 2012/2013. As a basket, this collection
of top names offers good potential for near-term production, attractive valuation, take-over potential, and re-ratings as they
move past exploration, development, and production milestones.
Trevali Mining Corp. (TV-TSX) is a burgeoning zinc producer ramping up operations at its Halfmile mine in New Brunswick
and on track to build out its Santander mine in Peru. This is one of the few “independent” zinc producers, and although Xstrata
and Glencore have significant interests in Trevali’s projects, we see this as the next “go-to” name for zinc, once fully in
production. We forecast Trevali to produce 221.8 Mlbs of zinc, 54.9 Mlbs of lead, 850,000 ounces of silver, and 4.6 Mlbs of copper
at peak production on a consolidated basis. We rate Trevali a BUY with a 12-month target price of C$2.00/share.
Canadian Zinc Corp. (CZN-TSX) is a brownfields zinc company reviving the built but never operated Prairie Creek zinc-lead-
silver mine in the NWT, Canada. Although the project has struggled through rigorous environmental and permitting review for
several years, the dedicated team’s hard work should finally come to fruition with its final permits awarded by early 2013. Near-
term catalysts, including a more complete feasibility study expected later in 2012, and receipt of final permits in H1/13, should
aid in de-risking the project. Once in production, the high-grade Prairie Creek mine will be a significant zinc and silver producer.
We rate Canadian Zinc a SPECULATIVE BUY with a 12-month target price of C$1.00/share.
Chieftain Metals Inc. (CFB-TSX) is developing its Tulsequah Chief project in northern B.C. Although this will be a zinc
producer, it is technically a polymetallic producer with about equal contributions from zinc, copper, and gold. Tulsequah Chief
stands out for its high grades and high expected margins. It is well supported and has several key catalysts in the next 12 months,
including an updated feasibility study and approval for a rerouted access road. We rate Chieftain a SPECULATIVE BUY with a
12-month target price of C$5.50/share.
Foran Mining Corp. (FOM-TSXV) is an exploration and development company with a focus on developing its 100%-owned
McIlvenna Bay property in east-central Saskatchewan. The deposit hosts a high-grade resource that remains open and continues
to grow with subsequent programs. A resource update by the end of 2012 and the completion of a PEA on McIlvenna Bay in the
first half of 2013 are near-term catalysts that should see the stock move through our target. We rate Foran Mining a
SPECULATIVE BUY with a 12-month target price of C$1.20/share.
Rathdowney Resources Ltd. (RTH-TSXV) is the earliest stage of this group, building out a classic Mississippi Valley deposit
within the zinc orefields of southern Poland. Its Olza project is strategically located close to the operating Pomorzany mill and
mine, which is near depletion and in search of new ore or a new owner. Rathdowney’s project stands out for its ease of access,
established mine infrastructure, and proximity to markets. As part of the Hunter Dickinson Inc. group of companies,
Rathdowney has strong marketing, financial and legal resources to draw upon. We rate Rathdowney a SPECULATIVE BUY
with a 12-month target price of C$1.25/share.
4. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
2 Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead www.mackieresearch.com
New Names in Zinc: Valuation Comparables
Trevali Mining Canadian Zinc Chieftain Metals1
Foran Mining
Rathdowney
Resources 2
TV-T CZN-T CFB-T FOM-V RTH-V
Rating and Target
Rating BUY SPEC BUY SPEC BUY SPEC BUY SPEC BUY
12-month Target C$ $2.00 $1.00 $5.50 $1.20 $1.25
Valuation Metric 4.0x 2014E P/CF 0.8x NAVPS 0.6x NAVPS 1.0x NAVPS/comps 1.0x NAVPS/comps
Upside / (Downside) Target % 130% 160% 112% 100% 183%
Market Data
Share price C$ $0.87 $0.39 $2.60 $0.60 $0.44
Market capitalization, f/d C$ MM $149.1 $60.3 $31.5 $39.0 $35.9
Enterprise value, f/d C$ MM $131.0 $47.3 $28.9 $33.0 $24.9
Mineral Resources 2
Measured & Indicated MM tonnes 16.34 5.43 6.00 12.07 na
ZnEq Grade % 11.41% 30.73% 25.46% 10.00% na
Inferred MM tonnes 47.41 6.24 1.10 9.57 108.00
ZnEq Grade % 8.76% 40.35% 17.62% 9.53% 5.70%
Calculated Total MM tonnes 63.75 11.67 7.10 21.64 108.00
ZnEq Grade % 9.44% 35.87% 24.25% 9.79% 5.70%
Project Details
Location of Project(s) New Brunswick,
Canada
Northwest Territories,
Canada
British Columbia,
Canada
Saskatchewan,
Canada
Poland
Lima Department,
Peru
Type of Mineralization VMS/Carbonate
Replacement
VMS Deposit VMS Deposit VMS/ Breccia Mississippi Valley
Type
Mining Method Underground Underground Underground Underground Underground
Upfront Estimated Capex US$ MM $92 $193 $405 $233 $150
Potential Annual Production Zn 000 lbs 147.7 61.7 57.3 78.5 119.2
Expected Cash Cost US$/lb ZN $0.48 ($0.64) ($1.07) ($2.31) na
Project Stage Production/Under
Construction
Permitting/ Feasibility Permitting/ Feasibility Resource Drilling/
Economic studies
Resource Drilling/
Economic studies
First Production (Estimate) US$ Q1/12, Q4/12 2015 2016 2016 2016
EV/Tonne of Reserve + Resource C$/tonne $2.06 $4.06 $4.06 $1.53 $0.23
Valuation
Mackie Research NAV Estimate C$ MM $436.37 $331.17 $298.31 $112.91 $101.74
per share C$ $2.23 $1.24 $9.10 $1.16 $1.25
Price/NAV 0.39x 0.31x 0.29x 0.52x 0.35x
(1) Resource estimate for Chieftain Metals is based on its Tulsequah Chief project only.
(2) Historic resource estimate (1990), non NI 43-101 compliant.
Source: Company reports, Thomson Reuters, Mackie Research Capital
5. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
www.mackieresearch.com Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead 3
M I N I N G , B A S E M E T A L S
ZINC: TOP NAMES TO SUPPLY SHORTFALL AHEAD
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................................................................................................1
THE ZINC MARKET ..............................................................................................................................................................................6
Zinc – Inflection Point Ahead .............................................................................................................................................................6
Don’t Forget Lead.................................................................................................................................................................................9
Zinc & Lead Pricing............................................................................................................................................................................10
Investment Strategy............................................................................................................................................................................12
Initiating Coverage.............................................................................................................................................................................14
TREVALI MINING CORP...................................................................................................................................................................17
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................18
Company Profile.................................................................................................................................................................................18
Consolidated Production Profile.........................................................................................................................................................19
Large Global Resource..........................................................................................................................................................................20
New Brunswick Complex.....................................................................................................................................................................21
Regional Geology – A Classic Camp................................................................................................................................................21
Resource Estimates.............................................................................................................................................................................22
Halfmile & Stratmat – A Great Start ................................................................................................................................................23
Caribou Mill & Mine Acquisition.....................................................................................................................................................24
Adding Tonnage to the Portfolio......................................................................................................................................................25
New Brunswick Development Plan.................................................................................................................................................25
Project Assumptions...........................................................................................................................................................................26
Santander Mine – Peru..........................................................................................................................................................................27
Location & Infrastructure ..................................................................................................................................................................27
History .................................................................................................................................................................................................27
New Deal With Glencore...................................................................................................................................................................28
Sizeable Upgrade in Inferred Resource ...........................................................................................................................................28
Geology................................................................................................................................................................................................28
Underground Mine plan....................................................................................................................................................................29
Tingo Hydroelectric Plant, Peru .......................................................................................................................................................30
Project Progress & Timeline ..............................................................................................................................................................30
Other Assets............................................................................................................................................................................................31
Huampar Silver Mine, Peru ..............................................................................................................................................................31
Ruttan Copper Mine, Manitoba........................................................................................................................................................31
Valuation.................................................................................................................................................................................................32
Catalysts...................................................................................................................................................................................................32
Risks.........................................................................................................................................................................................................33
Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................................................................................33
Management Team ................................................................................................................................................................................34
CANADIAN ZINC CORP....................................................................................................................................................................37
Company Background ..........................................................................................................................................................................38
Company Profile.................................................................................................................................................................................38
Prairie Creek Mine ................................................................................................................................................................................39
Established Infrastructure .................................................................................................................................................................39
History & Progress .............................................................................................................................................................................39
Government & First Nations Agreements in Place........................................................................................................................40
Prairie Creek Geology........................................................................................................................................................................41
6. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
4 Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead www.mackieresearch.com
High-Grade Deposit...........................................................................................................................................................................42
Resource Potential ..............................................................................................................................................................................43
Mine Plan – Mostly Logistics ............................................................................................................................................................44
Water & Waste Management ............................................................................................................................................................46
Project Timeline ..................................................................................................................................................................................46
Permitting ............................................................................................................................................................................................47
Project Assumptions Summary ........................................................................................................................................................47
Other Assets............................................................................................................................................................................................48
Vatukoula Gold Mines.......................................................................................................................................................................48
South Tally Pond (Paragon Minerals Acquisition) ........................................................................................................................49
Valuation.................................................................................................................................................................................................49
Financing Assumptions .....................................................................................................................................................................49
Sensitivity Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................50
Catalysts...................................................................................................................................................................................................51
Risks.........................................................................................................................................................................................................51
Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................................................................................51
Management Team ................................................................................................................................................................................53
CHIEFTAIN METALS INC..................................................................................................................................................................55
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................56
Tulsequah Project ..................................................................................................................................................................................57
Location: A Sensitive area .................................................................................................................................................................57
Infrastructure: A Brownfields Project ..............................................................................................................................................57
New Access Road: Key to Success....................................................................................................................................................58
History .................................................................................................................................................................................................59
Environmental: Fixing a Leaky Legacy ...........................................................................................................................................59
Resource: High-Grade Polymetallic.................................................................................................................................................59
Exploration Upside.............................................................................................................................................................................60
Feasibility Study Around the Corner...............................................................................................................................................61
Operation.............................................................................................................................................................................................61
Project Timeline ..................................................................................................................................................................................62
Project Financing Options .................................................................................................................................................................63
Conceptual Model ..............................................................................................................................................................................63
Valuation.................................................................................................................................................................................................64
Sensitivity Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................65
Catalysts...................................................................................................................................................................................................66
Risks.........................................................................................................................................................................................................67
Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................................................................................67
Management Team ................................................................................................................................................................................68
FORAN MINING CORP......................................................................................................................................................................69
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................70
McIlvenna Bay Project ..........................................................................................................................................................................71
Location & History .............................................................................................................................................................................71
Geology – World-Class VMS Camp.................................................................................................................................................71
McIlvenna Bay Deposit......................................................................................................................................................................72
Resource & Metallurgy ......................................................................................................................................................................74
Resource Upside .................................................................................................................................................................................74
Conceptual Model – PEA Soon On the Way...................................................................................................................................75
Sensitivity Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................76
Other Projects .........................................................................................................................................................................................77
Valuation.................................................................................................................................................................................................77
Catalysts...................................................................................................................................................................................................78
7. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
www.mackieresearch.com Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead 5
Risks.........................................................................................................................................................................................................78
Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................................................................................79
Management Team & Board................................................................................................................................................................80
RATHDOWNEY RESOURCES LTD. ................................................................................................................................................83
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................84
Olza Zinc Project - Poland....................................................................................................................................................................85
Location And Infrastructure..............................................................................................................................................................85
Community Relations ........................................................................................................................................................................85
History .................................................................................................................................................................................................86
Geology – Classic Mississippi Valley Type.....................................................................................................................................86
Resources – Historic Work Points to Size Potential .......................................................................................................................86
Pomorzany – A Mill & Mine Due to Close......................................................................................................................................88
Conceptual Model ..............................................................................................................................................................................89
Sensitivity Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................90
Other Projects- Ireland..........................................................................................................................................................................90
Location And Infrastructure..............................................................................................................................................................90
Geology................................................................................................................................................................................................91
Current Plan & Budget.......................................................................................................................................................................91
Valuation.................................................................................................................................................................................................92
Catalysts...................................................................................................................................................................................................92
Risks.........................................................................................................................................................................................................93
Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................................................................................93
Management, Technical Team & Board.............................................................................................................................................94
MINING INDUSTRY RISKS..............................................................................................................................................................96
Commodity Price Risk .......................................................................................................................................................................96
Technical Risk .....................................................................................................................................................................................96
Cost Escalation Risk ...........................................................................................................................................................................96
Financing Risk.....................................................................................................................................................................................96
Regulatory Risk...................................................................................................................................................................................96
Political Risk........................................................................................................................................................................................96
Exploration Risk..................................................................................................................................................................................96
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ...........................................................................................................................................................97
ANALYST CERTIFICATION..............................................................................................................................................................97
Note: All financial figures in this report are in Canadian dollars, unless stated otherwise. Report pricing date: 14-AUG-12
8. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
6 Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead www.mackieresearch.com
THE ZINC MARKET
ZINC – INFLECTION POINT AHEAD
Zinc remains one of the chief base metals along with copper and lead that drive burgeoning economic growth. Of the
approximately 13 million tonnes produced annually, in general, 50% is used for galvanizing to protect steel from corrosion as
used in automobiles and construction steel (rebar, framing, etc.). Approximately 17% goes into the production of zinc base alloys,
mainly to supply the diecasting industry, and 17% to produce brass and bronze. Significant amounts are also utilized in rolled
zinc applications including roofing, gutters, and down-pipes, while the remainder is consumed in compounds such as zinc oxide
and zinc sulphate which are used in the chemical and fertilizer industry and for food and medical applications (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Main End Uses of Zinc
Main End Uses of Zinc
Galvanizing
50%
Diecasting
17%
Misc.
4%Chemicals
6%Rolled Zinc
6%
Brass & Bronze
17%
Source: International Zinc Association
Demand is closely linked to economic growth, with China standing out as the world’s largest consumer of the metal at about 5.5
million tonnes annually, comprising 38% of global demand, with the rest of Asia bringing the total up to about 64%. The next
largest consumer is the United States at 975,000 tonnes or about 8%, while Europe as a whole consumes almost 2.5 million tonnes
or 20%. Consumption forecasts see a modest 3.75% growth rate for 2012, driven almost entirely by Asia in the face of stalled
growth or contraction in North America and Europe.
Macro data coming out of China points to slowing growth (at least in the near term), but investors should keep in mind that this
growth is off of a much larger base than even just three or four years ago (Figure 2). And we maintain that the urbanization and
structural changes in China and India are secular, occurring over decades, not quarters. The momentum of the last 10 years of
growth doesn’t stop on a dime, and demand for mid-cycle commodities, principally base metals, should continue to be strong.
9. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
www.mackieresearch.com Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead 7
Figure 2: Demand from China Slowing, But Off a Higher Base & Commodity Intensity
0
25
50
75
100
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Early cycle commodities e.g. steel, iron ore
Mid-cycle commodities e.g. copper, lead, zinc
Late cycle commodities e.g. platinum, nickel
~$8k/capita~$4k/capita ~$48k/capita
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US$,billions
GDP per capita (Nominal, 2011 US$)
5 to 7 Years ago:
10-13% growth = $250 to
$350 mbillion GDP growth
Present Day:
7-8% growth = $550 Bn GDP growth
GDP would have to slow to <3.5% to
mirror historical absolute growth
Source: IMF, Xstrata, Mackie Research Capital
The delay in an economic turnaround has contributed to rising zinc inventories, which are currently at multi-year highs (Figure
3), but the outlook for zinc prices remains positive, citing a drastic tightening of supply from 2013. As shown in Figure 4, a
significant amount of supply, approximately 12%-14%, is expected to come off the market in 2013 and 2014, which should lead to
a supply-demand imbalance.
Figure 3: 20-Year Zinc Price and Inventory Moves
Zinc Price and Inventories
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
Aug-92
May-93
Mar-94
Dec-94
Sep-95
Jun-96
Mar-97
Jan-98
Oct-98
Jul-99
Apr-00
Jan-01
Nov-01
Aug-02
May-03
Feb-04
Nov-04
Sep-05
Jun-06
Mar-07
Dec-07
Sep-08
Jul-09
Apr-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jul-12
Price($/lb)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Inventories('000tonnes)
Tonnes ('000) Price
Source: Bloomberg, Mackie Research Capital
10. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
8 Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead www.mackieresearch.com
Figure 4: Mine Supply Depleting
Depleting Zinc Producers
Snow/Trout Lake Hudbay Minerals Manitoba, Canada Underground 75,000 2012
Brunswick #12 Xstrata Zinc New Brunswick, Canada Underground 275,000 March-2013
El Mochito Nyrstar Honduras Underground 26,000 2013
Mount Garnet Kagara Mining North Queensland, Australia Underground 40,125 2013
Perseverance Xstrata Zinc Quebec, Canada Underground 228,000 2013
Angas Terramin South Australia Open pit 57,000 2014
Iscaycruz Glencore International Peru, South America Underground and Open Pit 330,000 2014
Lisheen Vedanta Resources Ireland Underground 299,000 2014
Rosh Pinah Glencore International Namibia Underground 89,000 2014
Total Offline by Year-End 2014 1,419,125
Duck Pond Teck Resources Newfoundland, Canada Underground and Open Pit 21,300 2015
Skorpion Vedanta Resources Namibia Open pit 49,698 2015
Black Mountain Sterlite/Exxaro Namibia Underground 44,000 2016
Century Minmetals Resources Queensland, Australia Open pit 497,251 2016
El Toqui Nyrstar Chile Underground 29,000 2016
Mount Isa Xstrata Zinc North Queensland, Australia Underground 300,000 2016
Myra Falls Nyrstar Vancouver Island, Canada Underground 36,000 2016
Tara Boliden Ireland Underground 164,000 2016
Cayeli Inmet Mining Turkey Underground 48,100 2019
Golden Grove Minmetals Resources Western Australia Underground and Open Pit 70,687 2019
Greens Creek Hecla Mining Alaska, USA Underground 66,050 2022
Antamina Xstrata Zinc Peru, South America Open pit 165,000 2026
Red Dog Teck Resources Alaska, USA Open pit 572,200 2031
Rampura Agucha Hindustan Zinc Ltd Rajasthan, India Open pit 649,580 2030+
Annual Zn
Production (t) DepletionMethodAsset Company Location
Source: Company Reports, Mackie Research Capital
As such, the mounting inventory of zinc should be drawn down quickly. Indeed inventories are near record highs right now
(Figure 5). However, premiums have remained fairly steady, with the likelihood of a major pullback in demand or pricing such
as experienced in 2009 relatively low. The main reason appears to be that much of the inventory in LME and Chinese
warehouses is tied up in financing arrangements that make the metal unavailable to the overall market. This would suggest that
some traders and trading houses are stockpiling ahead of the production shortfall.
Figure 5: Supply-Demand Forecast
Zn Supply/Demand Balance 2009 2010 2011 2012
000 tonnes
Global Production 11,280 12,832 13,073 13,639
% change YOY -2.0% 13.8% 1.9% 4.3%
Consumption
Total Mature 3,129 3,724 3,764 3,799
% change YOY -21.6% 19.0% 1.1% 0.9%
Total BRICs 5,546 6,342 6,476 6,855
% change YOY 8.8% 14.4% 2.1% 5.9%
Global Consumption 10,914 12,581 12,807 13,287
% change YOY -6.2% 15.3% 1.8% 3.7%
Metal Balance 366 251 266 352
Total Stocks 1,058 1,452 1,702 2,054
Total as no. weeks' consumption 5.0 6.0 6.9 8.0
Source: GFMS
So, looking ahead, the supply-demand balance should continue to rapidly move toward deficit from surplus as several large
mines reach the end of their life and new, smaller projects fail to fill the gap, which will likely be exacerbated by delays in
permitting, construction, and financing. The nature of zinc deposits does not lend itself to large mega-projects like copper
(porphyries), so to gain clout, major integrated zinc producers like Xstrata plc (XTA-LN) , Nyrstar NV (NYR-BT) and Glencore
International plc (GLEN-LN) own or operate a collection of smaller mines. As smelter operators, they also secure off-take from
primary and by-product producers around the world. As such, good new projects are readily fundable and proven operations
11. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
www.mackieresearch.com Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead 9
do not last long before being acquired. In the last five years, we have seen several zinc-levered producers be acquired, including
Breakwater Resources and Farallon Mining (both acquired by Nyrstar), as well as development projects like Hackett River in
Nunavut (discussed further below). Given that the pipeline of projects remains insufficient to meet demand, we would expect to
see continued M&A activity driven by cash-rich producers once significantly de-risked.
DON’T FORGET LEAD
Lead is a major co-product of zinc, so it follows much the same story on the supply side. Of the approximately 10.4 million
tonnes produced annually, about 80% is used in the production of batteries, mostly for automobiles, and the remainder for a mix
of corrosion resistant products such as roof flashing and cladding, ammunition, and underwater cable sheathing. It continues to
be used in pigments and chemicals and in alloys including radiation protection at hospitals, labs, and nuclear facilities (Figure 6).
Figure 6: Main End Uses of Lead
Lead Usage (%)
Rolled and
extruded
products
Batteries
Lead alloys
Cable sheathing
Lead compounds
Miscellaneous
Shot
Source: International Lead Association
As with zinc, lead demand is closely linked to economic growth, with China standing out as the world’s largest consumer of the
metal at about 4.6 million tonnes annually, comprising 45% of global demand, with the rest of Asia bringing the total up to about
63%. The United States and its powerful auto industry use about 16% of supply, while Europe as a whole consumes about the
same. Consumption forecasts see continued strong growth at 6.0% for 2012, driven largely by China whose consumption growth
is expected to remain over 11%.
On the supply side, mine production grew by 8.6% in 2011 and should grow by just 3.3% in 2012, with much of the new supply
coming from China. As a common co-product of zinc, lead supply will also suffer with the impending closures of several zinc
mines (see Figure 4 above), but this is being partly off-set by increasing production from China.
Lead inventories have also risen to multi-year highs given the recent slowdown in Europe (Figure 7). However, with continued
strong battery demand from China and a resurging U.S. automobile market, as well as falling production output, inventories
should stabilize and draw down, moving to a more balanced situation (Figure 8).
12. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
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Figure 7: 20-Year Lead Price and Inventory Moves
Lead Price ($/lb) vs. Lead Inventories (tonnes)
$-
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
$1.8
$2.0
Aug-92
May-93
Mar-94
Dec-94
Sep-95
Jun-96
Mar-97
Jan-98
Oct-98
Jul-99
Apr-00
Jan-01
Nov-01
Aug-02
May-03
Feb-04
Nov-04
Sep-05
Jun-06
Mar-07
Dec-07
Sep-08
Jul-09
Apr-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jul-12
Price($/lb)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Inventories('000tonnes)
Tonnes ('000) Price
Source: Bloomberg, Mackie Research Capital
Figure 8: Supply-Demand Forecast for Lead
Global Supply/Demand Balance 2009 2010 2011 2012
000 tonnes
Global Production 9,054 9,683 10,401 10,949
% change YOY -0.8% 6.9% 7.4% 5.3%
Consumption
Total Mature 3,029 3,231 3,397 3,420
% change YOY -14.4% 6.7% 5.1% 0.7%
Total BRICs 4,573 4,929 5,334 5,883
% change YOY 11.3% 7.8% 8.2% 10.3%
Global Consumption 9,071 9,686 10,276 10,893
% change YOY -1.3% 6.8% 6.1% 6.0%
Metal Balance (17) (3) 125 56
Total Stocks 391 447 621 677
Total as no. weeks' consumption 2.2 2.4 3.1 3.2
Source: GFMS
ZINC & LEAD PRICING
Like other base metals, zinc and lead have been volatile over the last 12 months. Zinc dropped 16% from the same time last year,
trading in a range from $1.12/lb to $0.79/lb and now holding in the $0.85/lb range (Figure 9). The move is well-correlated with
the inventory rise and tied to a weaker outlook for global growth. Lead has seen a steeper drop of 20% over the same period,
from highs of $1.24/lb to lows of $0.79/lb. It is now also trading in the $0.85/lb range (Figure 9). Lead prices had been riding
high on very strong battery demand out of China, but the weakened outlook for the Chinese and global economies, along with
rising inventories, drove a sharp correction in the metal price.
13. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
www.mackieresearch.com Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead 11
Figure 9: One-Year Zinc and Lead Price and Inventory Moves
Zinc (12-mo)
$0.5
$0.6
$0.7
$0.8
$0.9
$1.0
$1.1
$1.2
$1.3
$1.4
Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Jul-12
Price($/lb)
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Inventories('000tonnes)
Lead (12-mo)
$0.5
$0.6
$0.7
$0.8
$0.9
$1.0
$1.1
$1.2
$1.3
$1.4
Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Jul-12
Price($/lb)
200
240
280
320
360
400
440
480
520
560
600
Inventories('000tonnes)
Source: Bloomberg, Mackie Research Capital
We expect zinc and lead prices to remain volatile and under pressure in 2012 as the euro crisis gets sorted out and the U.S.
prepares for another election. As such, we see both zinc and lead staying in the $0.85/lb range. Assuming the economy stabilizes
in 2013, the underfunding of the realization of supply deficits in zinc should become apparent, leading to a rise in prices for an
average price of $0.95/lb in 2013 and $1.10/lb in 2014 as the deficit comes to the fore. Lead demand should remain strong, but
not suffer the same volatility with prices given the more varied sources of supply, with prices topping out at $1.00/lb. Our price
forecasts are summarized in Figure 10.
Figure 10: Commodity Price Forecasts
Price Forecast
(US$/lb; Au, Ag US$/oz) Spot 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Long Term
Zinc 0.81 0.99 0.90 1.00 1.20 1.05 0.95
Lead 0.83 1.09 0.95 1.05 1.10 1.00 0.90
Copper 3.33 4.00 3.75 4.25 3.75 3.00 3.00
Gold 1,599 1,650 1,650 1,650 1,650 1,650 1,650
Silver 27.84 30.00 33.00 33.00 33.00 33.00 33.00
Source: Bloomberg, Mackie Research Capital
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INVESTMENT STRATEGY
While we don’t expect huge moves from zinc in the near term, we see good opportunities across the board in the medium and
longer term, with producers trading down to multiples of 6.6x 2014 CF despite strong operations and healthy balance sheets
(Figure 11).
Figure 11: Zinc Producers
Zinc Producers Comparables
Bloomberg Estimates
1 Day 1 Month 1 Year 2012E 2013E 2014E
Glencore International GLEN 24,084 347.90 0.8 9.9 -14.5 1,305.0 28,029 67,508 nm nm nm
Teck Resources TCK/B 16,788 28.62 -3.2 -6.7 -33.6 4,405.0 7,035 20,359 5.3x 4.7x 4.9x
Inmet Mining IMN 2,962 42.70 0.9 9.1 -28.1 1,065.2 17 1,816 5.9x 6.2x 6.7x
Lundin Mining Corp. LUN 2,600 4.46 -2.0 8.5 -20.6 265.4 29 2,291 9.1x 6.3x 6.0x
Hudbay Minerals Inc. HBM 1,465 8.52 -4.4 10.4 -29.0 899.1 0 695 12.6x 10.7x 8.7x
Average 8.2x 7.0x 6.6x
P/CF
Ticker
Market Cap
($mm)
Closing
Price ($)
Price Change (%) Cash
($mm)
Debt
($mm)
EV
($mm)
Source: Bloomberg, Mackie Research Capital
With such price volatility amongst producers, developers are going largely un-noticed, but that is where we see the greatest
opportunity. Since 2008, developers once acquired for $0.04-$0.10/lb of resource are now trading at less than half those levels,
based on attributable pounds in the ground (Figure 12).
Figure 12: Zinc Explorers/Developers
Developers Comparables
Bloomberg Estimates
1 Month 1 Year
Cash
($mm)
EV
($mm) MT Zn Grade Zn Eq Grade Zn MT
EV/Resource
($/lb)
Trevali Mining TV 153 0.87 2.4 -34.6 28.0 153 12.12 6.07% 8.69% 1620.88 0.066
Canadian Zinc Corp CZN 62 0.40 12.9 -36.3 3.0 43 5.84 10.71% 20.85% 1378.99 0.016
Canadian Zinc Metals Corp. CZX 51 0.37 -3.9 -14.0 15.5 34 23.60 7.60% 8.38% 3953.37 0.008
Foran Mining Corp. FOM 41 0.60 -1.6 -7.7 12.3 33 12.07 3.68% 10.01% 980.33 0.012
Zazu Metals Corp. ZAZ 40 0.90 -4.3 -11.8 6.0 35 18.74 8.08% 8.40% 3338.66 0.010
Rathdowney Resources RTH 36 0.44 -12.0 -45.0 20.0 16 45.40 4.87% 5.03% 4871.55 0.003
Selwyn Resources Ltd SWN 31 0.08 -5.9 -62.8 4.0 29 97.95 5.10% 5.27% 11015.24 0.003
Tirex Resources TXX 31 0.46 16.5 -43.2 1.2 30 - 0.00% na 0.00
Chieftain Metals CFB 31 2.60 -8.8 -44.7 7.2 29 6.20 6.34% 24.34% 866.06 0.009
Karmin Exploration Inc KAR 30 0.50 -25.4 85.2 2.0 28 27.68 3.53% 7.12% 2151.14 0.006
Sunridge Gold Corp. SGC 29 0.24 -12.7 -62.5 15.0 27 68.52 1.65% 7.08% 2486.18 0.003
Red Crescent Resources Ltd. RCB 10 0.07 -13.3 -82.4 0.9 9 8.35 1.74% 1.83% 320.38 0.028
Average 0.015
Price Change (%) Resource
Ticker
Market
Cap
($mm)
Closing
Price ($)
Source: Bloomberg, Mackie Research Capital
The best of these will continue to be takeover targets and benefit from step-function stock movements as they pass de-risking
development milestones such as resource upgrades and expansions, feasibility studies, and capital raisings. Figure 13 details
some recent M&A activity. As we screened the developer universe, we looked to value in this space and focused on five that
would give not only the best value and upside potential, but also a balance of deposit type, geography, and position on the
development cycle (Figure 14).
Figure 13: Recent Zinc M&A Takeover Metrics
Vedanta Anglo American Skorpion Namibia December 2010 100% 707 na na 4.9
Nyrstar Farallon Mining Campo Morado Mexico January 2011 100% 409 5,087 8.04 na
Vedanta Anglo American Black Mountain South Africa February 2011 74% 348 na na 3.8
Vedanta Anglo American Lisheen Ireland February 2011 100% 546 456 na 2.8
Nyrstar Breakwater Resources August 2011 100% 663 10,264 6.46 3.8
Xstrata Zinc Sabina Gold & Silver Hackett River Nunavut October 2011 100% 50 16,002 0.31 na
Glencore International Exxaro/ PE Minerals Rosh Pinah Namibia June 2012 80% 114.4 2,592 4.41 1.1
Price/ZnEQ
ProductionAcquirer ProjectTarget Date*
Acquired
InterestLocation
Takeover Price ($
millions)
Price/ZnEQ
Resource (Usc/lb)
ZnEQ Resource
(M lbs)
Source: Bloomberg, Mackie Research Capital
15. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
www.mackieresearch.com Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead 13
Figure 14: Development Cycle and New Names
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Value
Phase 1:
Discovery
Speculation
(Higher Risk)
1-5yrs
Phase 2:
Development
Investment
Analysis
2-3yrs
Phase 3:
Production
Revaluation
2-3yrs
1
2
3
4
7
8
1 Discovery Hole
2 Anticipatory/Discovery High
3 Discovery High
4 Confirmation/Disinterest Slide
Disinterest Low
6 Development/Construction
7 Production Start-up
8 Production/Cashflow Period
6
Exploration Discovery Resource Feasibility Financing Development
Permitting
Production Cashflow
Source: Mackie Research Capital
As the global economy stabilizes, the top producers will lead the bounce-back, but in the meantime, developers may be
opportunistically acquired by cash-rich producers, smelter groups or Chinese companies looking to lock in long-term supply.
They will also follow the leaders up the valuation curve as economic stabilization brings about the realization of tight supply.
16. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
14 Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead www.mackieresearch.com
INITIATING COVERAGE
We are initiating coverage on five zinc-leveraged developer/producers that we see as offering good value and significant upside
potential with ongoing catalysts and takeover potential (Figure 15).
Figure 15: Zinc Names – Initiating Coverage
Company Ticker
Stock
Price
Market Cap
($MM)
Rating
Target Price
(C$/share)
Total
Potential
P/NAV P/Target
Trevali Mining Corp. TV-T $0.87 $149.1 BUY $2.00 130% 0.39x 0.44x
Canadian Zinc Corp. CZN-T $0.39 $60.3 SPEC BUY $1.00 160% 0.31x 0.39x
Chieftain Metals Inc. CFB-T $2.60 $31.5 SPEC BUY $5.50 112% 0.29x 0.47x
Foran Mining Corp. FOM-V $0.60 $39.0 SPEC BUY $1.20 100% 0.52x 0.50x
Rathdowney Resources Ltd. RTH-V $0.44 $35.9 SPEC BUY $1.25 183% 0.35x 0.35x
Source: Thomson One, Mackie Research Capital
Trevali Mining Corp. (TV-TSX) is a burgeoning zinc producer ramping up operations at its Halfmile mine in New Brunswick
and on track to build out its Santander mine in Peru. This is one of the few “independent” zinc producers and although Xstrata
and Glencore have significant interests in Trevali’s projects, we see Trevali as the next go-to stock for zinc-leverage once fully in
production. We forecast Trevali to produce 221.8 Mlbs of zinc, 54.9 Mlbs of lead, 850,000 ounces of silver, and 4.6 Mlbs of copper
at peak production on a consolidated basis. We rate Trevali a BUY with a 12-month target price of C$2.00/share.
Canadian Zinc Corp. (CZN-TSX) is a brownfields zinc company reviving the built but never operated Prairie Creek zinc-lead-
silver mine in the NWT, Canada. Although the project has struggled through environmental and permitting review for several
years, the dedicated team’s hard work should come to fruition with its final permits awarded by early 2013. Near-term catalysts,
including a more complete feasibility study expected later in 2012, and receipt of final permits in H1/13 should aid in de-risking
the project. Once in production, the high-grade Prairie Creek mine will be a significant zinc and silver producer. We rate
Canadian Zinc a SPECULATIVE BUY with a 12-month target price of C$1.00/share.
Chieftain Metals Inc. (CFB-TSX) is developing its Tulsequah Chief project in northern B.C. Although this will be a zinc
producer, it is technically a polymetallic producer with about equal contributions from zinc, copper, and gold. Tulseqauh Chief
stands out for its high grades and high expected margins. It is well supported and has several key catalysts in the next 12 months,
including an updated feasibility study and approval for a rerouted access road. Financing remains the key risk in the near term
as current market conditions remain a challenge for junior miners. We rate Chieftain a SPECULATIVE BUY with a 12-month
target price of C$5.50/share.
Foran Mining Corp. (FOM-TSXV) is an exploration and development company with a focus on developing its 100%-owned
McIlvenna Bay property in east-central Saskatchewan. The deposit hosts a high-grade resource that remains open and continues
to grow with subsequent programs. A resource update by the end of 2012 and the completion of a PEA on McIlvenna Bay in the
first half of 2013 are near-term catalysts that should see the stock move through our target. We rate Foran Mining a
SPECULATIVE BUY with a 12-month target price of C$1.20/share.
Rathdowney Resources Ltd. (RTH-TSXV) is the earliest stage of this group, building out a classic Mississippi Valley deposit
within the zinc orefields of southern Poland. Its Olza project is strategically located close to the operating Pomorzany mill and
mine, which is near depletion and in search of new ore or a new owner. Rathdowney’s project stands out for its ease of access,
established mine infrastructure, and proximity to markets. As part of the Hunter Dickinson Inc. group of companies,
Rathdowney has strong marketing, financial and legal resources to draw upon. We rate Rathdowney a SPECULATIVE BUY
with a 12-month target price of C$1.25/share.
17. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
www.mackieresearch.com Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead 15
Figures 16 and 17 below detail each company’s exposure to zinc on an in-situ basis, and annual payable production basis. For the
greatest exposure to zinc, investors can look to Trevali and Rathdowney. Canadian Zinc, Chieftain Metals, and Foran provide a
more even spread of metals diversification, which translates to natural hedges to metal prices.
Figure 16: Initiating Coverage Names – In-Situ Comparison
In-Situ Comparison
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Trevali Mining Canadian
Zinc
Chieftain
Metals
Foran Mining Rathdowney
Resources
Silver
Gold
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Source: Thomson One, Mackie Research Capital
Figure 17: Initiating Coverage Names – Annual Payable Comparison
Annual Payable Split Comparison
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Trevali Mining Canadian Zinc Chieftain Metals Foran Mining Rathdowney
Resources
Silver
Gold
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Source: Thomson One, Mackie Research Capital
Each of these names offers the necessary combination of a high-quality asset, manageable jurisdiction, experienced and capable
management and technical team, sensible development plan, ability to raise capital, and takeover potential. A detailed report on
each company follows.
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19. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
www.mackieresearch.com Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead 17
I N V E S T M E N T H I G H L I G H T S
TREVALI MINING CORP.
Burgeoning Zinc Producer in Established Mining Camps
TV - TSX $0.87
TARGET: $2.00
PROJ. RETURN: 130%
VALUATION: 4.0x P/CF
Share Data
Basic Shares O/S (mm) 175.4
Fully Diluted (mm) 205.7
Market Cap ($mm) 152.6
Enterprise Value ($mm) 134.8
Cash ($mm) 21.6
Debt ($mm) 3.8
Dividend ($) 0.00
Yield (%) 0.0%
Next Reporting Date November
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12
Short-term Technical Target
$0.80, next support. TV is weak long-term
but is testing resistance at its 50DMA.
Forecast
FYE Dec 31 2011A 2012E 2013E
Production 000 Zn lbs - 20,818 76,624
Cash Costs US$/lb $0.00 $0.75 $0.52
EPS $/sh n/a $0.01 $0.18
P/EPS multiple n/a n/a 4.9x
CFPS $/sh n/a $0.03 $0.21
P/CFPS multiple n/a 29.3x 4.2x
Company Profile
Trevali is a zinc-focused base metals producer
currently with operations in the Bathurst
Mining Camp, New Brunswick, and a project
in Peru. The Halfmile mine in New
Brunswick is ramping up to commercial
production by H2/12, with the Santander
mine in Peru on track for initial production
in Q4/12. We anticipate Trevali to produce
221.9 Mlbs of zinc, 54.9 Mlbs of lead,
850,000 ounces silver, and 4.6 Mlbs copper at
peak production on a consolidated basis.
We are initiating coverage on Trevali Mining Corp. with a BUY recommendation
and 12-month target price of C$2.00/share.
Production in New Brunswick: Initial production commenced at the Halfmile
mine in New Brunswick in January 2012 and should contribute annual payable
production of 70 Mlbs of zinc plus lead, copper, and silver by 2014.
Construction at Santander: With the recent installation of a 2,000 tpd mill
supplied by Glencore, Trevali is on track for first production by year-end,
ramping towards annual payable zinc production of 29 Mlbs in 2013 and 39 Mlbs
in 2014.
Expansions Planned: Following the successful development and ramp-up to
commercial production at Halfmile and Santander, Trevali intends to undertake
expansion programs at both the Caribou mill (upon closing of the transaction)
and Santander mill in an attempt to double throughput capacity from the current
levels to 4,000 tpd each.
Exploration Upside: Trevali has a highly prospective portfolio of assets that
includes the Huampar silver mine in Peru, the Ruttan copper mine in Manitoba,
and the Caribou zinc mine in New Brunswick, all brownfields projects that
Trevali is exploring. This pipeline of projects presents the ongoing opportunity
for additional production.
Excellent Project Locations: Trevali’s Canadian near-term projects are
strategically located in the prolific Bathurst Mining Camp in New Brunswick,
with its Santander project located in the Central Peruvian Polymetallic Belt in
Peru. Both locations have a history of mining and have well-developed
infrastructure in place.
Strong Project Partners: Trevali has partnered with very experienced mining
companies in Xstrata for Halfmile (New Brunswick) and Glencore for Santander
(Peru).
Near-Term Catalysts: A ramp-up to commercial production at Halfmile, the
closing of the Caribou mine/mill acquisition and commencement of production
at Santander at the end of this year are all near-term catalysts for Trevali.
Key Risks: Timely and successful ramp-up to nameplate capacity remains the main
risk to Trevali for both the Halfmile mine and Santander projects.
20. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
18 Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead www.mackieresearch.com
INTRODUCTION
COMPANY PROFILE
Trevali Mining Corp. is a Vancouver-headquartered, zinc-focused base metals miner currently
advancing two polymetallic zinc deposits in Canada and Peru towards commercial production
(Figure 1). In Canada, Trevali owns the Halfmile zinc-lead-silver mine and Stratmat polymetallic
deposit located in the Bathurst Mining Camp of northern New Brunswick. Additionally, the
company owns the past-producing Ruttan copper-zinc mine in Manitoba. Halfmile commenced
production in January 2012 and is presently ramping up to a production capacity of 2,000 tpd. To
move away from the current toll treatment arrangement with Xstrata, Trevali recently entered
into a definitive combination agreement to acquire the Caribou milling and mine complex
located in close proximity to Halfmile and Stratmat. The deal should close by year-end, with
management forecasting in-house milling by mid-2013.
In Peru, Trevali owns the Santander zinc-lead-silver mine and the past-producing Huampar
silver mine, both of which are located in the Central Peruvian Polymetallic Belt. Mine
construction is currently on track at Santander, with initial production anticipated from the
Magistral deposits at the end of 2012. Trevali anticipates a production ramp-up to 2,000 tpd in
2013. The company also owns the Tingo run-of-river hydroelectric generating facility in Peru,
located 17 kilometres from its Santander mine. Trevali plans a significant upgrade of the facility,
with the goal of providing cheap power for operations at Santander.
Figure 1: Trevali Project Locations (North and South America)
Source: Company presentation
21. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
www.mackieresearch.com Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead 19
Trevali currently has 175 million basic and 206 million fully diluted shares outstanding, with
management and insiders owning about 7.0% of the total shares outstanding. Glencore
International is the largest shareholder of Trevali with an interest of 7.8%. The company recently
closed a $15.4 million bought deal financing, leading to a healthy current cash position of $21.6
million in the treasury with a very modest $3.8 million in debt. Additionally, the Trevali recently
announced it will enter into a $10 million bridge-loan credit facility with Sprott Resource
Lending Partnership. The loan will tie them over until a senior, corporate-level debt facility
supporting the re-start of the Caribou mill is complete.
CONSOLIDATED PRODUCTION PROFILE
Figure 2 outlines our consolidated production profile for the Trevali mines for 2012-2022. We
anticipate Halfmile to come online in Q2/12 with initial production of 20.8 Mlbs of zinc in 2012.
With Stratmat anticipated to come online in 2014, we forecast peak production levels of 175.7
Mlbs of zinc at the New Brunswick complex for a 17-year mine life. We anticipate Santander
coming online in 2013, producing 39.2 Mlbs of zinc for a 18-year mine life. We forecast
consolidated production of 221.9 Mlbs of zinc at peak production. Figure 3 outlines Trevali’s
consolidated revenue breakdown by metal for 2012-2019. The portfolio is clearly dominated by
zinc, with healthy by-product revenue coming from lead, silver, and some copper.
Figure 2: Trevali Consolidated Production (2012-2022)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
ZincProduction(000slbs)
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
NetCashCosts(US$/lb)
New Brunswick Santander Net Cash Costs
Source: Company reports, Mackie Research Capital
Figure 3: Trevali Revenue Breakdown by Metal (2012-2019)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
RevenueBreakdownByMetal
Zinc Lead Silver Copper Gold
Source: Company reports, Mackie Research Capital
23. Mackie Research Capital Corporation
www.mackieresearch.com Zinc: Top Names to Supply Shortfall Ahead 21
NEW BRUNSWICK COMPLEX
Trevali’s New Brunswick Complex contains three core assets in close proximity, which include
the Halfmile mine, Stratmat project, and the Caribou mine and mill (the acquisition of Caribou
was announced, but is yet to officially close). They are well-situated in the Bathurst Mining Camp
of northern New Brunswick, Canada, near the town of Bathurst which is a heavily-used business
and service hub for northeastern New Brunswick (Figure 5). Belledune, further north, has a deep
water port to permit the shipment of concentrate and a 458 MW coal-fired electrical generating
station with excess capacity for power. The Bathurst Mining Camp has a rich history of mining
zinc and copper since the 1950s, with operations run by a number of companies that included
Xstrata, Cominco (now Teck Resources Ltd, TCK.B-T), and Breakwater. As a result, the area
understands mining and supports a well-developed mining infrastructure and skilled workforce.
Figure 5: Bathurst Camp Project Locations
Source: Company presentation
REGIONAL GEOLOGY – A CLASSIC CAMP
The Halfmile, Stratmat and Caribou deposits are just a few of the over 45 massive sulphide
deposits in the Bathurst Mining Camp (Figure 6). Regionally, the rocks are of Ordovician age and
have undergone a complex history of polyphase folding and faulting. Most deposits are
vertically and laterally zoned VMS deposits, structurally overlain by rhyolitic and dacitic rocks as
well as disconformable quartz-wackes and pelites with a footwall of alkali basalts and thin
bedded feldspathic wacke/shales. This is a classic VMS terrain with multiple deposits and
continues to show upside potential.
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Figure 6: Regional Geology and New Brunswick Complex
Source: New Brunswick Geological Surveys Branch
RESOURCE ESTIMATES
The Halfmile mine has an indicated resource of 6.26 million tonnes grading 8.13% zinc, 0.22%
copper, 2.58% lead, and 30.78 g/t silver for total contained metal of 1.1 Blbs zinc, 30.4 Mlbs
copper, 356.2 Mlbs lead, and 6.2 Moz silver for a zinc equivalent resource of 1.59 Blbs (Figure 7).
Additionally, the deposit contains an inferred resource of 6.08 million tonnes grading 6.69% zinc,
0.14% copper, 1.83% lead, and 20.51 g/t silver for total contained metal of 896.5 Mlbs zinc, 18.8
Mlbs copper, 245.2 Mlbs lead, and 4.0 Moz silver for a zinc equivalent resource of 1.21 Blbs. The
Stratmat project has an inferred resource of 5.53 million tonnes grading 6.11% zinc, 0.40% copper,
2.59% lead, and 54.2 g/t silver for total contained metal of 744.2 Mlbs zinc, 48.7 Mlbs copper,
315.4 Mlbs lead, and 9.6 Moz silver for a zinc equivalent resource of 1.19 Blbs. The similar grades
will make for easy blending and mining of up to 4,000 tpd.
Figure 7: Halfmile-Stratmat Resource Estimate (2010)
Metric Zinc Copper Lead Silver Gold
Tonnes Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Zinc Copper Lead Silver Gold
(000s) % % % g/t g/t (000s lbs) (000's lbs) (000s lbs) (000s) (000s)
Halfmile
Measure & Indicated Res. 6,262 8.13% 0.22% 2.58% 30.78 0.00 1,122,371 30,372 356,177 6,197 0
Inferred Resources 6,078 6.69% 0.14% 1.83% 20.51 0.00 896,460 18,760 245,220 4,008 0
Total 12,340 7.42% 0.18% 2.21% 25.72 0.00 2,018,831 49,132 601,397 10,205 0
Stratmat
Measure & Indicated Res. - -- -- -- - - 0 -- -- 0 0
Inferred Resources 5,525 6.11% 0.40% 2.59% 54.21 0.00 744,156 48,717 315,444 9,629 0
Total 5,525 6.11% 0.40% 2.59% 54.21 0.00 744,156 48,717 315,444 9,629 0
Contained
Source: Company presentation
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HALFMILE & STRATMAT – A GREAT START
Trevali’s New Brunswick properties were heavily explored by Xstrata Zinc and its predecessor
companies at intervals since the 1960s. In particular, extensive exploration activity occurred
during the 1980s and 1990s when the Heath Steele and Stratmat mines were in production. In
2008, Kria Resources (now Trevali) entered into an agreement with Xstrata Zinc whereby Kria
had the right to gain 100% ownership of the Stratmat and Halfmile projects by:
Paying US$18,000,000 (completed)
Issuing units worth a total of C$7,000,000 (completed).
Xstrata maintains the first right and option to purchase all or any portion of the concentrate off-
take, as well as a 2% Net Smelter Return (NSR) royalty. In 2010, Kria produced a Preliminary
Economic Assessment (PEA) on the Halfmile-Stratmat properties, as well as various resource
estimates between 2008 and 2011. In April 2011, Trevali completed a friendly business
combination with Kria whereby Trevali acquired all of the issued and outstanding shares of Kria
in a stock swap at a rate of 0.2 Trevali shares for every Kria share, providing an acquisition value
of $44 million. Upon completion, Trevali was provided with 100% ownership of the Halfmile-
Stratmat deposits.
The 2010 PEA contemplated mining Halfmile and Stratmat by conventional underground
mining, predominantly mechanized cut and fill and some long-hole stoping. Halfmile represents
an excellent starter mine for the company. The steeply plunging VMS deposit starts near surface
and contains four sulphide zones: the Upper, Lower, Deep, and North (Figure 8). The Upper and
Lower figure prominently into the current mine plan which will allow ramp access and the bulk
of near-term production at 2,000 tpd.
Figure 8: Halfmile Deposit
Source: Company reports
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A similar plan exists for Stratmat, which has two zones: the Main Zone and Zone 51 (Figure 9).
The stringy and blobby nature requires a slightly more complex mine plan at Stratmat where the
resource extends to over 700 metres.
Figure 9: Stratmat Deposit
Source: Company reports
In October 2011, Trevali entered into a toll-milling agreement with Xstrata allowing for ore
produced at Halfmile to be milled through Xstrata’s Brunswick #12 mill at a rate of up to 2,000
tpd, and in January 2012, Trevali commenced initial production. This provides some near-term
cash flow and proof-of-concept for Halfmile, but this is only a temporary arrangement. Toll
milling is expensive and Brunswick #12 is slated to close by March 31, 2013. To complete the
company, Trevali needed its own mill and had three options: 1) purchase the Brunswick #12 mill
once Xstrata closed the mine, 2) construct a brand new mill or 3) purchase the nearby Caribou
mill.
CARIBOU MILL & MINE ACQUISITION
In May 2012, Trevali entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Maple Minerals Corp.
(private) and its Caribou mill and mine located about 40 kilometres from Halfmile. Pursuant to
the terms of the agreement, the acquisition will commence upon the completion of:
Maple receiving 20 million Trevali shares (implied value of approximately $24 million)
4 million purchase warrants
Voting support and standstill agreement with Maple shareholders.
Additionally, Trevali has also entered into a transition services agreement with Maple pursuant
to which Trevali will, among other things, manage the Caribou mill and mine operations for the
period up to the closing of the transaction. The closing of the transaction is still subject to a
number of conditions before it may continue forward, but indications are that it is on track to
close before year-end. Upon completion of the transaction, current Maple shareholders will hold
approximately 11% of the common shares of Trevali.
This is a good deal for Trevali. Between 2006 and 2007, the previous operator, Blue Note Mining
Inc. (BNT-TSXV, invested approximately $100-$120 million in a major overhaul and
modernization of the processing plant and mine infrastructure. The mine operated for just over a
year prior to going into receivership in 2008 due to depressed commodity prices and adverse
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global financial conditions. The acquisition of the Caribou mine and milling complex has a
number of benefits to Trevali. Of particular importance is that Trevali receives ownership of a
modern 3,000 tpd concentrate processing plant including a metallurgical and geochemical
laboratory and permitted tailings treatment facility. Further benefits include the addition of a
former producing mine (Caribou) to the company’s already promising portfolio, which Trevali
believes remains open for expansion at depth and along strike.
ADDING TONNAGE TO THE PORTFOLIO
Following the close of this transaction, Trevali will also be able to add the tonnage from the
Caribou mine to its New Brunswick portfolio. The Caribou deposit has an indicated resource of
3.81 million tonnes grading 7.5% zinc, 3.26% lead, and 92 g/t silver for total contained metal of
630 Mlbs zinc, 274 Mlbs lead, and 11.3 Moz silver for a zinc equivalent resource of 967.3 Mlbs
(Figure 10). Additionally, the deposit was reported to contain an inferred resource of 3.94 million
tonnes grading 7.36% zinc, 3.59% lead, and 107 g/t silver containing 640 Mlbs zinc, 312 Mlbs
lead, and 13.6 Moz silver for a zinc equivalent resource of 1.03 Blbs.
Figure 10: Caribou Mine Resource Estimate
Metric Zinc Copper Lead Silver Gold Contained Contained Contained Contained Contained
Tonnes Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Zinc Copper Lead Silver Gold
(000's) % % % g/t g/t (000's lbs) (000's lbs) (000's lbs) (000's) (000's)
Measure & Indicated Res. 3,810 7.50% 0.00% 3.26% 92.00 0.00 629,964 -- 273,825 11,270 0
Inferred Resources 3,944 7.36% 0.00% 3.59% 107.00 0.00 639,996 -- 312,172 13,569 0
Total 7,754 7.43% 0.00% 3.43% 99.64 0.00 1,269,961 -- 585,997 24,838 0
Source: Company presentation
Trevali believes that the Caribou deposit has upside potential within the resource, with the
deposit remaining open along strike and at depth (Figure 11).
Figure 11: Caribou Geology/Exploration Upside
Source: Company presentation
NEW BRUNSWICK DEVELOPMENT PLAN
In January 2012, Trevali commenced initial production at the Halfmile underground mine. As
mentioned above, Trevali currently has a toll-milling agreement in place with Xstrata for the ore
from the Halfmile mine. The ore is transported ~30 kilometres and processed at Xstrata’s
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Brunswick #12 mill at a rate of up to 2,000 tpd. In return, Xstrata receives 100% of the Halfmile
concentrate off-take. With Brunswick #12 set to shut down by year-end 2013, Trevali will
conclude the toll-milling agreement with Xstrata and move processing of Halfmile ore to its
Caribou mill. The Caribou mill is currently set up as a 3,000 tpd operation and will need to be
upgraded to 4,000 tpd to handle both deposits by year-end 2013. A copper circuit is expected to
be added in 2013 prior to the transfer of milling at a cost of about $17 million. Development of
Stratmat in 2014 at a cost of about $40 million should allow doubling of production by 2015.
Figure 12 outlines management’s timeline for the New Brunswick Complex. Figure 13 shows the
main inputs to our mine model. Trevali recently provided an update on the production progress
at Halfmile, announcing that in Q1/12 approximately 37,000 tonnes with head grades of 6.39%
zinc, 1.9% lead, 0.65% copper, 40.57 g/t silver, and 0.4 g/t gold were mined. Additionally, 30,000
tonnes had been processed at Xstrata’s Brunswick #12 mill in the month of April.
Figure 12: New Brunswick Complex Project Timeline
Brunswick Development Plan
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Initial Production at Halfmile Mine
Ramp-up Production at Halfmile
Stratmat Expansion Drilling and Resource Update
Planned Reactivation of Caribou Operations
Ramp-up to 4,000 tpd at Caribou
Plannned Stratmat Production
2012 2013 2014
Source: Company presentation, Mackie Research Capital
PROJECT ASSUMPTIONS
Figure 13: Halfmile-Stratmat Project Assumptions
Long Term Zinc Price $0.95
Long Term Copper Price $3.00
Long Term Lead Price $0.90
Long Term Silver Price $33.00
Halfmile First Production Q1/2012
Stratmat First Production Q4/2013
Mineable Resource (Mtonnes) 1.3
Annual Throughput (tpd) 2,000
Annual Throughput (Mtpa) 0.7
Mine Life (years) 17
Zinc Head Grade 6.10%
Zinc Recovery 86%
Copper Head Grade 0.39%
Copper Recovery 62%
Lead Head Grade 2.10%
Lead Recovery 58%
Silver Head Grade (g/t) 15.40
Silver Recovery 46%
Zn Concentrate Grade 53%
Pb Concentrate Grade 45%
Cu Concentrate Grade 26%
Payable Zn Production (Mlbs /yr) 108.5
Payable Cu Production (Mlbs /yr) 3.8
Payable Pb Production (Mlbs /yr) 29.6
Payable Ag Production (oz/yr) 247,213
Net Cash Costs ($/lb zinc) $0.51
Halfmile-Stratmat Model Assumptions
Halfmile-Stratmat Resource Value by Metal
Zn
59%
Cu
8%
Pb
19%
Ag
14%
Halfmile-Stratmat Revenue by Avg Annual Payable Metal
Zn
68%
Pb
18%
Cu
9%
Ag
5%
Source: Mackie Research Capital
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SANTANDER MINE – PERU
LOCATION & INFRASTRUCTURE
The Santander zinc-lead-silver-copper mine is located in west-central Peru, accessible by road
approximately 215 kilometres northeast of Lima (Figure 14). The property lies within the
province of Huaral and covers a total area of 4,455 hectares. The company is currently in the
development and construction phase of a 2,000 tpd mine and mill. Key site infrastructure is
complete. The project has its own run-of-river hydroelectric power generating plant, Tingo,
located approximately 17 kilometres away that is currently undergoing an expansion to meet
Santander’s operational power requirements. Trevali recently released an updated resource on
Santander and anticipates initial production for late 2012.
Figure 14: Santander Project Location
Source: Company reports
HISTORY
The earliest recorded work at the Santander property was carried out in 1925, and in the 1940s,
work confirmed the existence of significant silver-lead-zinc mineralization at what was to
become the Santander Pipe. In the 1950s, the Santander deposit was first mined by Sucursal de
Peru ramping up to 1,000 tpd. At the same time, a hydroelectric plant was built at Tingo to
provide electrical power requirements for the operation. Between 1958 and 1991, mining of the
Santander Pipe produced approximately 8 million tonnes grading +7% zinc, 1%-4% lead, and 60
g/t silver with additional copper credits. Due to a combination of hyper-inflation and low metal
prices, mining ceased at 480 metres below surface. In 2007, Trevali acquired the Santander mine
out of receivership with the exclusive right to engage in exploration, development, exploitation,
processing, and commercialization activities at the property for a period of 50 years, with an
automatic 50-year extension. Resource definition drilling performed by Trevali from 2008
through 2011 on the property confirmed significant exploration potential, ultimately leading to
the significant updated resource estimate in July 2012.
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NEW DEAL WITH GLENCORE
In September 2010, Trevali completed a definitive development agreement with Glencore
International for the Santander mine project that will see Glencore provide and operate a 2,000
tpd mill/concentrate plant, undertake contract mining operations, and enter into a long-term
concentrate off-take agreement for 100% of Santander project production. Under the terms of the
agreement, we understand that Trevali has agreed to acquire the plant and associated
infrastructure over a 5-year period for about $25 million on a “toll” basis payable at an estimated
fee of $6/tonne milled. Trevali has the right to pre-pay the outstanding cost of the plant at any
time subject to payment plus 10%. Additionally, Trevali received the key Environmental Impact
Permit for the Santander mine in April of this year, enabling underground development to
commence.
SIZEABLE UPGRADE IN INFERRED RESOURCE
In early July 2012, Trevali released an updated resource estimate for the Santander mine. The
mine has an indicated resource of 6.26 million tonnes grading 3.62% zinc, 1.30% lead, 43 g/t
silver, and 0.07% copper for total contained metal of 500 Mlbs zinc, 179 Mlbs lead, 8.7 Moz silver,
and 10 Mlbs copper for a zinc equivalent resource of 734.6 Mlbs (Figure 15). The deposit also
contains an inferred resource of 13.85 million tonnes grading 4.6% zinc, 0.40% lead, 21 g/t silver,
and 0.11% copper containing 1.4 Blbs zinc, 122 Mlbs lead, 9.4 Moz silver, and 34 Mlbs copper for
a zinc equivalent resource of 1.6 Blbs. This inferred resource is a substantial increase from the
previously issued inferred resource of 2010.
Figure 15: Santander Project Location Resource Estimate
Metric Zinc Copper Lead Silver Gold
Tonnes Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Zinc Copper Lead Silver Gold
(000s) % % % g/t g/t (000s lbs) (000's lbs) (000s lbs) (000s) (000s)
Magistral Central and South
Measure & Indicated Res. 3,691 4.18% 0.08% 0.52% 35.00 - 340,134 6,510 42,313 4,153 -
Inferred Resources 4,792 4.62% 0.08% 0.22% 20.00 - 488,077 8,452 23,242 3,081 -
Magistral North
Measure & Indicated Res. 2,355 2.89% 0.07% 2.47% 57.00 - 150,044 3,634 128,238 4,316 -
Inferred Resources 618 3.04% 0.07% 2.45% 40.00 - 41,418 954 33,380 795 -
Total Contained
Source: Company reports
GEOLOGY
The characteristics and setting of the mineralization at the Santander property are consistent with
intrusion-related, carbonate-hosted zinc-lead deposits. The Santander Pipe and new pipes at
Magistral contain massive to semi-massive sphalerite with accompanying argentiferous galena,
pyrrhotite, and minor chalcopyrite. The Santander Pipe had dimensions of 120 metres in
diameter and was mined to a vertical depth of 480 metres using a combination of open-pit and
sub-level stoping methods. Mineralization remains open at depth, but the primary focus of
mining will be the Magistral North, Central, and South bodies (Figure 16). These new discoveries
make up the current mineable resource at Santander with additional potential to mine at further
depth below the former producing Santander Pipe and separate Puajanca South discovery.
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Figure 16: Magistral Deposits at Santander
Source: Company reports
UNDERGROUND MINE PLAN
Trevali plans to commence mining on the Magistral pipes in late 2012. No formal technical
studies were released, but internal work by Trevali and Glencore has come up with a planned
mining scenario that will consist of underground mining of the three pipes from central drift and
a standard mill and flotation process using the Glencore-supplied mill. As previously mentioned,
Trevali’s partner Glencore is providing a 2,000 tpd plant, contract mining, and manpower in
exchange for the concentrate off-take. Trevali will retain full ownership in the project and will
eventually acquire full ownership of Glencore’s processing plant. As this is a polymetallic deposit
with significant silver and lead credits, as well as the low-cost power coming from the Tingo
power plant, a low net cash cost of C$0.31/lb zinc is anticipated. The company sees production
expansion potential to 4,000-5,000 tpd, but we have not yet factored that into our model (Figure
17), holding production steady at 2,000 tpd for the life of mine. From the flotation work
conducted to date, Trevali maintains that the coarse-grained mineralogy provides good
recoveries to produce clean concentrates. The company estimates initial concentrate grades of
50%-52% zinc, 40% lead, and 40 oz/t silver are achievable with recoveries of 80%-85% zinc, 90%
lead, and 70% silver.
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Figure 17: Santander Project Assumptions
Long Term Zinc Price $0.95
Long Term Copper Price $3.00
Long Term Lead Price $0.90
Long Term Silver Price $33.00
Magistral First Production Q4/2012
Mineable Resource (Mtonnes) 10.1
Annual Throughput (tpd) 2,000
Annual Throughput (Mtpa) 0.7
Mine Life (years) 18
Zinc Head Grade 3.63%
Zinc Recovery 80%
Copper Head Grade 0.07%
Copper Recovery 0%
Lead Head Grade 0.81%
Lead Recovery 90%
Silver Head Grade (g/t) 30.17
Silver Recovery 70%
Zn Concentrate Grade 52%
Pb Concentrate Grade 40%
Payable Zn Production (Mlbs /yr) 39.2
Payable Cu Production (Mlbs /yr) -
Payable Pb Production (Mlbs /yr) 11.0
Payable Ag Production (oz/yr) 464,445
Net Cash Costs ($/lb zinc) $0.31
Santander Model Assumptions
Santander Resource Value by Metal
Zn
59%
Pb
13%
Cu
4%
Ag
24%
Santander Revenue by Avg Annual Payable Metal
Zn
59%Pb
17%
Ag
24%
Source: Mackie Research Capital
TINGO HYDROELECTRIC PLANT, PERU
Through a wholly-owned subsidiary, Trevali intends to provide power to the Santander mine
site. From the Tingo run-of-river hydroelectric power station approximately 17 kilometres
southwest of the mine. Tingo has been in operation since 1958 and presently generates up to 1.6
MW of electricity. Trevali is in the process of performing a significant upgrade of the generating
facility, increasing production capacity up to 8.8 MW from its current 1.6 MW capacity. As the
Santander mine will only require 4-5 MW of power consumption, excess power will be sold to
the National Energy Grid. Upon completion of the upgrade, the company anticipates the plant to
produce a kilowatt hour of power at an operational cost of $0.01 to $0.015, well below the price
range available on the grid of $0.08 to $0.12 per kilowatt hour. Trevali expects to complete the
planned expansion of the plant in 2013.
PROJECT PROGRESS & TIMELINE
The Santander project remains on track for commissioning in late Q3/12. The company provided
an update in late June on the construction progress at the site. The company outlined that it
currently has approximately 600 construction workers and miners on site, and project
development is advancing accordingly. All major mine and mineral processing items are on
schedule. Glencore's mill is fully decommissioned and all equipment is on-site and ready for
installation, including specific new components. Plant construction is advancing well – all
foundations are poured and cured, the majority of rebar and framework is in place, and various
structural components and building fabrication are presently being assembled (mill circuits,
flotation building, zinc and lead thickeners, and concentrate storage warehouses). All key
underground service and support facilities are in place, namely water, air, underground offices
and training rooms, lamp-room, various explosive magazines, and equipment shops.
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Development of the 5-metre-by-4-metre underground access ramp has commenced and progress
to date is excellent. Figure 18 outlines management’s timeline for the Santander Mine.
Figure 18: Santander Timeline
Santander Development Plan
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Resource Expansion
Construction
Mine Commissioning and Production
Planned 10 MW expansion at Tingo Plant
Planned mill expansion from 2,000 tpd to 4,000 tpd
2012 2013 2014
Source: Company presentation, Mackie Research Capital
OTHER ASSETS
HUAMPAR SILVER MINE, PERU
In 2011, Trevali signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Nueva Condor Inc.
granting Trevali the exclusive option to acquire all outstanding shares of its subsidiary, and 100%
of the Huampar silver-gold-zinc-lead property. The terms of the 4-year option include US$50,000
on signing (paid), 1 million Trevali shares issuable upon Trevali exercising the option, 3% NSR of
which 2% may be purchased in 1% tranches at any stage for payments of US$1.5 million and
US$2 million respectively, and annual payments of US$100,000 commencing on the first
anniversary of the agreement which will be deductible from any NSR payments made to NCI.
The Huampar project is a past-producing silver mine in the Central Peruvian Polymetallic Belt. It
is located 80 kilometres northeast of Lima, and 80 kilometres southeast of the company’s
Santander mine. Mining began in 1956 and continued until 1991 when power shortages forced
mine closure. Production initially commenced at 250 tpd and approximately 2.5 million tonnes
were processed with an average grade of 185 g/t silver, 1.6 g/t gold, 5.0% zinc, and 3.8% lead
with strong metallurgical recoveries. Previous operations have left a well-maintained mine
infrastructure that includes a 600-person camp and a fully permitted 400 tpd mineral processing
plant on site. Trevali believes there has been limited historic exploration and that there remains
the potential to discover additional mineralization, with the eventual goal of recommencing
mining operations. Trevali will perform confirmation drilling and resource delineation of the
Huampar silver-gold system in 2013.
RUTTAN COPPER MINE, MANITOBA
Ruttan is an under-explored copper-zinc massive sulphide deposit approximately 21 kilometres
east of Leaf Rapids, which is 750 kilometres northwest of Winnipeg, Manitoba. The deposit is a
past-producing mine operating from 1973 to 2002, with historic production of approximately 55
million tonnes grading 1.23% copper and 1.41% zinc. A 2008 initial NI 43-101 outlined an inferred
mineral resource at the Ruttan deposit estimated at 19.75 million tonnes grading 1.17% copper
and 1.47% zinc using a 1.0% capped copper equivalent cut-off grade. Trevali has acquired 100%
of Ruttan subject to a 4% NSR royalty. Terms include combined cash payments of $750,000
(paid), and 200,000 shares of Kria (issued). The work commitment on the property has already
been satisfied. A 2% NSR royalty can be purchased by Trevali for a payment of $3.5 million. A
number of high-priority targets have been identified by the company within the large land
package. Trevali is currently performing preliminary engineering studies anticipated late
2012/early 2013.
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VALUATION
With the Halfmile mine being fully financed, fully built, and nearing nameplate production, and
both Santander and Stratmat not far behind, the most relevant valuation metric to apply to
Trevali is P/CF. Based on our analysis, we expect that for 2014, Trevali’s first full year at
maximum production capacity across all mines, the company will generate $0.49/share. Its peer
group of producers is currently trading at 6.6x 2014 P/CF multiple according to consensus
estimates. Given the completion risk that remains associated with the portfolio of near-term
producing projects, we apply a discounted multiple of 4.0x cash flow to arrive at a target price of
C$2.00/share.
For our NAV estimate, we rely on the conservative assumptions discussed above. Exploration
upside is based on current resources not currently in a mine plan. We employ an 8% discount
rate as the company has started production at Halfmile and is well into the construction at
Santander. We have factored in the recent bought deal financing and assumed the successful
closing of the Caribou mine and mill acquisition for 20 million shares, resulting in a diluted share
count of 195.4 million. As a result, our NAV estimate for Trevali based on 100% ownership in all
projects is C$436.4 million or C$2.23 per share (Figure 19).
Figure 19: Valuation Using DCF Methodology
(C$ millions, unless otherwise indicated)
Mining Assets Ownership Discount $MM $/share
New Brunswick Complex 100% 8.0% $232.0 $1.19
Santander Mine, Peru 100% 8.0% $135.7 $0.69
Exploration Upside 100% comps $52.0 $0.27
Total Mining Assets $419.8 $2.15
Financial Assets
Pro Forma Cash & Cash Equivalents* $18.6 $0.10
Long-Term Debt $(2.0) $(0.01)
Total Financial Assets $16.6 $0.08
Net Asset Value $436.4 $2.23
Diluted shares outstanding (MM)* 195.4
Common shares outstanding (MM) 175.4
Fully Diluted shares outstanding (MM) 205.7
*Assumes closing of Maple acquisition and impact of recent financing
Source: Mackie Research Capital
CATALYSTS
We anticipate several key events in the second half of 2012 that should act as positive catalysts
for the stock price and move it towards our target of C$2.00/share. These include:
Halfmile Nameplate Production (H2/12): Trevali commenced initial production in January
2012 and is on-track to reach the 2,000 tpd nameplate production by the second half of 2012.
However, Trevali may choose to operate at a more moderate level, sacrificing near-term but
costly toll-treated production for longer-term production at its newly acquired mill.
Santander Start-up (Q4/12): The bulk of the construction is either completed or well
underway at Santander. Management has targeted initial production for Q4/12 and all
indications are that it will meet this target.
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Stratmat expansion drilling and start-up (2012-2014): Additional drilling is planned in
attempts to continue growing the Stratmat resource. Initial production is slated for late
2013/early 2014.
Exploration Success: Trevali is performing ongoing exploration programs at Stratmat and
Santander that should yield additional results throughout the year.
RISKS
Trevali is subject to the same general risks as outlined in the back of this report and, as a
developer/producer, is most exposed to cost escalation and commodity-price risk, but of
particular note with respect to Trevali, we would highlight:
Development Risk: Trevali has yet to close the Caribou mill acquisition and has yet to
complete mine construction at Santander. A delay in either of these properties would
adversely impact our estimates. Thus far, Trevali has taken the appropriate steps to ensure
completion of both properties in a timely and efficient manner.
Operational Risk: Trevali’s Halfmile mine is in a prolific mining district where continuous
mining has been well proven, so operation risk is low. However, while ramp-up currently
remains on-track, the company remains exposed to operating risks, given that full
production has not yet been achieved and the mill acquisition has not yet closed.
Exploration Risk: Multiple exploration programs are underway at both Stratmat and
Santander. While we have continued to see positive results from the company, there is no
guarantee the success will be maintained going forward.
Political Risk: The magnitude and risk of policies changes with regard to permitting, taxes,
royalties, and government interests vary from country to country. New Brunswick is a
mining-friendly and low-risk jurisdiction. Although Peru is also generally a mining-friendly
jurisdiction, it continues to experience sporadic social unrest, but not, to our knowledge, in
the vicinity of Santander. The World Bank ranks Peru 41st in the world for ease of doing
business, which is on par with Chile (39th) and better than Mexico (53rd). Canada and the
U.S. rank 4th and 13th, respectively.
CONCLUSION
Trevali offers a compelling opportunity for investors in the resource space looking for a growing
producer with leverage to zinc. Indeed, Trevali is one of the few pure-play (burgeoning)
producers in this space. We are initiating coverage of Trevali Mining Corp. with a BUY
recommendation and a 12-month target price of C$2.00/share based on a 4.0x 2014 P/CF
multiple. As Trevali brings both the New Brunswick and Santander mines to full production, we
would expect to see increases in the cash flow multiple and stock price. Additional upside comes
from resource and mine expansions from its ample exploration and resource portfolio.