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1. Development of an integrative Impact Analysis Tool
(iIAT) in the European Research Project PLUREL
Ingo Zasada
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research Müncheberg, Germany (ZALF)
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

2. Background
What are the Objectives of PLUREL
• Central objective: Development of an ex-ante impact analysis of
future land use changes (2015/2025) based on the DPSIR approach
(Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response)
• Analysis of causal relationships between global driving forces, land
use change (urbanisation) and sustainability impacts on pan-
European and regional scale (case studies)
• Contribution to the development of planning and policy strategies for
a sustainable development of regions
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

3. Impact Analysis Modelling
1000.0
800.0
Effective Mesh Size
600.0
400.0
-0.8724
y = 2027.5x
200.0
R² = 0.6674 (0.761)
0.0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
Share of Artificial Surface in %
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

4. Background
Haaglanden (NL)
Leipzig (GER)
Manchester (UK)
Warsaw (PL)
Montpellier (FR) Hangzhou (CHN)
Koper (SLO)
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

5. iIAT – Concept & Purpose
What is the iIAT – integrated Impact Assessment Tool?
• European-wide regional differentiated prognosis and knowledge
transfer tool on sustainability impacts of future urban land use
change
• Integrated representation of modelled impacts within the three
sustainability dimensions depending on selectable parameters
• Integration platform for research results from the 2 PLUREL strands:
EU and case study region
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

6. iIAT – Concept & Purpose
Environmental Issue d
Economic Issue a
10
8
+ Environmental Issue c
6
?
? 4 ?
Economic Issue b 2
Environmental Issue b
0
Environmental
? -2 ?
dimension
Economic -4
dimension -6
Current
Economic Issue c ? -8
-
Situation
? Environmental Issue a
? ?
Social Social Issue d
Economic Issue d
dimension Future
? ? Scenario
?
Situation?
Social Issue c
Social Issue a
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Social Issue b Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

7. iIAT Stakeholder involvement
What is the role of participation in the tool development?
iIAT Case study region iIAT EU (NUTSX)
• 2 workshops (Leipzig) • 3 workshops (Brussels)
• concept discussion • concept presentation
• compliation of relevant • compliation of relevant
questions questions
• technical demands from • policy relevance discussion
practitioner side • prototype presentation
• prototype presentation
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

8. iIAT Stakeholder EU
Discussion with European end users (DGs, EEA, CURE, ICLEI)
Intensive cooperation with the PURPLE network
Purple platform of 14 European peri-urban regions with the objectives
• to share knowledge and good practice
• allowing connections and productive crossfertilisation between existing projects
• promoting new trans-European initiatives
2 common workshops on the iIAT, presentation and discussion of the iIAT
4 contributions to the conference
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

9. Conclusion:
Appreciation of iIATs
• multipurpose and
multiple indicators function
• interregional comparisons
• scenario modelling
• web availability to come
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

10. iIAT Relevance & Practical use
• Exploration of possible future situations under the perspective of
sustainable development
• Identification of future policy issues/ territorial action agendas for
policy-makers at different scales (European – regional)
• Encouragement of inter-regional comparison, Identification of hot-
spot regions with particular need to policy/planning intervention
• Support tool for practitioners (planners) at different scales
• Information basis and encouragement of stakeholders within the
different policy fields
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

11. iIAT Limitations
What are the limitations concerning participatory functionality?
• User do not assess policy options
• iIAT Case Study Region: Impact Assessment of Strategies & Scenarios
• iIAT EU: only Impact Assessment of scenario-based land use changes
• Impact analysis is made in a Black Box Model. Users’ assessments are
not fed back into the tool
• Here: NOT participatory model / tool development; but: provision of a
tool that facilitates participatory decision processes of practitioners or
policy makers and operational design oriented on end user needs
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

12. Scenario Setting
Time Frame
Choice
iIAT EU NUTSX
EU one one opportunitie
Typology total Country NUTS X s category
Aggregated/ specific Indicators
RUR (urban/ peri-urban/ rural) (+) (+/-) (-) 0/1 periurbanity
Settlement Structure (+) (+/-) (-) multiple periurbanity
Regional Setting
morpholog. RUR (+) (+/-) (-) multiple periurbanity
Coast Indicator Chart
(+) (+/-) (-) 0/1 geographic
Border Display Setting (+) (+/-) (-) 0/1 geographic
Natural Hazard Type (+) (+/-) (-) multiple geographic
Typology Multimodal
Accessibility Potential (+) (+/-) (-) multiple economic
European Innovation
Scoreboard (+) (+/-) (-) multiple economic
Migration Type (+) (+/-) (-) multiple economic
Technological Hazard Type (+) (+/-) (-) multiple economic
Pentagon EU 27 plus 2 (+) (+/-) (-) 0/1 spatial development
Spatial Planning Typology (+) (+/-) (-) 0/1 spatial development
Interreg Structural Funds
Regions (+) (+/-) (-) multiple spatial development
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010
Cohesion Funds Regions (+) (+/-) (-) multiple spatial development

13. How to use the iIAT?
Question: How does urbanisation under extreme climate change conditions affect sustainability in
the Northumbria region (selected indicators)?
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

14. How to use the iIAT?
Question: Would a shift from weak level of control to strong level of control in a consolidated
government situation under high growth trends contribute to achieve more sustainability in
urbanised regions (aggregated indicators)?
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010

15. www.plurel.net ingo.zasada@zalf.de
Ingo Zasada, ZALF Informed Cities Forum – Making research, Newcastle 14-16 April 2010