A complete wrap-up of the 2010 leveraged loan market, including returns, prices, volume, defaults. Plus, market experts weigh in as to what 2011 will look like. (Hint: More deals, including M&A). Connect with LCD Facebook: http://www.lcdcomps.com/facebook LinkedIn: http://www.lcdcomps.com/linkedin Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/lcdnews Web: http://www.lcdcomps.com

1. Leveraged Finance Analysis
2010 Year-End Review
Steve Miller - Managing Director
Thursday, January 13, 2011

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Thursday, January 13, 2011

3. The loan market in 2010
•Finishing strong. Technically driven market
absorbs new-issue flurry
•Loans return 1.2% in Dec.; 10.2% in 2010
out
•Volume hits $70B in 4Q; 2010 volume hits $233
billion, up 204% from 2009
•Loan default rate hits 2.5-year low of 1.87%
Thursday, January 13, 2011

4. Quarterly leveraged loan volume ($bils.)
150
Institutional
Pro rata
113
outro
75
38
0
1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 4Q10
Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Thursday, January 13, 2011

5. Annual leveraged loan volume ($bils.)
325
Institutional
Pro rata
244
outro
163
81
0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 2011
(per market
Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data estimates)
Thursday, January 13, 2011

6. Average bid, loan flow names, 2010
97
97.37
on Jan. 10
95
outro
92
90
01/05/10 02/23/10 04/13/10 06/01/10 07/20/10 09/14/10 11/4/10 1/06/11
Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Thursday, January 13, 2011

7. Number of active loan accounts
400
Banks
Institutions
Text
300
out
200
100
0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Thursday, January 13, 2011

8. Loan default rate (principal amount)
12
Trends keeping defaults low
• Recovery + cost-cutting = stronger issuers
• Few troubled issuers remain
• Liquidity = extended maturities
9
What’s in store for 2011?
• Defaults hold at 1-3% outro
6
3
1.87%
0
1/05 1/31/06 1/31/07 1/31/08 1/09 1/10 12/10
Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Thursday, January 13, 2011

9. The 2011 loan market
• Good times (a la 2003-05, or the mid-90s)
• Low default rates
• Volume trending higher
• Prices remain stable
out
• Inflows continue
(Assuming no epic market meltdowns, of course)
Thursday, January 13, 2011

10. Leveraged Finance Analysis
2010 Year-End Review
Steve Miller - Managing Director
Thursday, January 13, 2011