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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
               May, 2012
        Sucheet Gupte - Director
www.LeveragedLoan.com
European Market Trends
Text




       Market slowdown, with the sovereign debt crisis
       returning to center stage in April ...

        • Primary Market: Both loans and bonds saw a
        lack of substantial activity.

       • Secondary Market: Both loan and high yield
       bonds bids fell in the secondary.

       • Default rates fell during the month though are
       expected to rise during the year.
European Loan Flow Name Prices
    100


     99


     97

                                               Text
      96


      94


       93


          91

            1/11         3/11        5/11         7/11   9/11   11/11   1/12   3/12 4/12
.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices

    106


    102


     98


     94
                                  Text
     89


     85


     81
          1/11      3/11   5/11   7/11   9/11   11/11   1/12   3/12 4/12
.    Source: Bloomberg
ELLI Multi-currency Loan Return (monthly)
     3.0%
                                                   April 2012:      +0.24%
                           Text                    March 2012:     + 0.99%
                                                   Jan-Apr 2012:   + 4.62%
                                                   Jan-Apr 2011:   + 4.78%
     1.8%




     0.5%




    (0.8%)




    (2.0%)
        2/10 4/10 6/10 8/20 10/10 12/10 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12

.      Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
ELLI Returns for PIIGS vs. Non-PIIGS

                  ELLI performs in line with broader markets:




.   Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
New-issue: Loans vs. HY Bonds (monthly)
            12
                                                          HY bonds - Jan-Apr 2012 = 36% lower than 2011
                                      Text
                                                          Loans       - Jan-Apr 2012 = 48% lower than 2011
            9
€billions




            6




            3
                                                                                                               €1.4B

                                                                                                               €1.4B
            0
                3/11   4/11   5/11   6/11   7/11   8/11   9/11   10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12   2/12   3/12   4/30

 .           Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Cross-Border Leveraged Finance Volume
            30.0
                                                               European borrowers going to US
                                                               US borrowers going to Europe

            22.5
€billions




            15.0




             7.5




               0
                   2007         2008         2009       2010   2011   Jan-Apr 2011 Jan-Apr 2012


 .          Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
                 Default Rate by Principal Amount                        Default Rate by Issuer Count

    16%                                                        16%




    12%                                                        12%




    8%                                                          8%
                                                             Text

    4%                                                          4%




    0%                                                          0%
      2/09            3/10            4/11            4/12        2/09    2/10          2/11            4/12

.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Looking Ahead
out
      • Sovereign debt crisis encourages opportunistic transactions
      during periods of ‘risk-on’.


      • Issuers will continue to tap US market, and will perform
      bond-for-loan takeouts.

      • Some arrangers more comfortable underwriting senior secured
      bridge loans to high yield, then flexing and structuring capital
      structure.


      • The flow of amendment requests from issuers will continue.


      • May could prove to be yet another bumper month for inflows.
Text
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May 2012, European Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update May, 2012 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 3. European Market Trends Text Market slowdown, with the sovereign debt crisis returning to center stage in April ... • Primary Market: Both loans and bonds saw a lack of substantial activity. • Secondary Market: Both loan and high yield bonds bids fell in the secondary. • Default rates fell during the month though are expected to rise during the year.
  • 4. European Loan Flow Name Prices 100 99 97 Text 96 94 93 91 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 4/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 5. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 98 94 Text 89 85 81 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 4/12 . Source: Bloomberg
  • 6. ELLI Multi-currency Loan Return (monthly) 3.0% April 2012: +0.24% Text March 2012: + 0.99% Jan-Apr 2012: + 4.62% Jan-Apr 2011: + 4.78% 1.8% 0.5% (0.8%) (2.0%) 2/10 4/10 6/10 8/20 10/10 12/10 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 . Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
  • 7. ELLI Returns for PIIGS vs. Non-PIIGS ELLI performs in line with broader markets: . Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
  • 8. New-issue: Loans vs. HY Bonds (monthly) 12 HY bonds - Jan-Apr 2012 = 36% lower than 2011 Text Loans - Jan-Apr 2012 = 48% lower than 2011 9 €billions 6 3 €1.4B €1.4B 0 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/30 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 9. Cross-Border Leveraged Finance Volume 30.0 European borrowers going to US US borrowers going to Europe 22.5 €billions 15.0 7.5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan-Apr 2011 Jan-Apr 2012 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 10. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 16% 16% 12% 12% 8% 8% Text 4% 4% 0% 0% 2/09 3/10 4/11 4/12 2/09 2/10 2/11 4/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 11. Looking Ahead out • Sovereign debt crisis encourages opportunistic transactions during periods of ‘risk-on’. • Issuers will continue to tap US market, and will perform bond-for-loan takeouts. • Some arrangers more comfortable underwriting senior secured bridge loans to high yield, then flexing and structuring capital structure. • The flow of amendment requests from issuers will continue. • May could prove to be yet another bumper month for inflows.
  • 12. Text Copyright 2012 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any Text part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of pause securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.