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                       European Leveraged Finance Market Update
                                   September 2011
                               Sucheet Gupte - Director



Sunday, September 18, 11
The Market in August
       • Summer break
       • Tinkering with deals, re-evaluating portfolios
       • Sovereign woes, bad economic numbers continue
       • New issuance: Bonds disappear, leveraged loans only
              slightly better                  out




       • Prices: Leveraged loans – 94; High yield bonds – 92.57
       • Loans return neg. 0.84% during month
       • One bright spot – No defaults in August

Sunday, September 18, 11
European loan flow name prices, 2011
      100

                                                                       94.10 as of 8
                                                                       September
       98




       96
                                                  Text



        94




        92
                              2/18              4/1      5/13   6/23      8/4     9/8
              1/7
  .          Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data

Sunday, September 18, 11
European HY bond flow name prices, 2011
        105


         102


            99


             97

                                               Text
             94

                                                             90.89 as
              91
                                                             of 8 Sept.
               88

                    1/7                 3/18          5/27                8/4   9/8
                    Source: Bloomberg
  .

Sunday, September 18, 11
ELLI Multi-currency loan return (monthly)
      3.5%
                                     August: - 0.84%
                                Text
                                     YTD:     + 0.41%
                                     YTD ’10: +3.93%
      2.4%




      1.3%




       0.2%




      (0.9%)
                   2/10     4/10       6/10      8/10        10/10   12/10   2/11   4/11   6/11   8/11
  .
                 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data

Sunday, September 18, 11
New-issue: Loans vs. HY bonds, by month
         12
                              HY bonds
                                                                Text
                              Loans
             9
 €billions




             6




             3

                                                                                                   no HY
                                                                                                   bonds
             0                                                                                     €63M
             4/10          6/10       8/10        10/10      12/10     2/11   4/11   6/11   8/11
                 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  .

Sunday, September 18, 11
ELLI Default rates – European leveraged loans
                            by principle amount                     by number of defaults

      13%                                                    16%




      9%                                                     12%




      6%                                                      8%
                                                           Text    2.62% as of
                       3.77% as of
                       31 August                                   31 August
      3%                                                      4%




      0%                                                      0%
       12/07               8/09          8/10       8/11            8/09          8/10      8/11

  .         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data

Sunday, September 18, 11
Looking ahead
        • Sovereign situation eating away at confidence
        • Loans continue to out-return high-yield bonds,
              equities
                                   out


        • Investors, arrangers continue at odds
        • Banks weighing investor incentives




Sunday, September 18, 11
Text




                       European Leveraged Finance Market Update
                                   September 2011
                               Sucheet Gupte - Director



Sunday, September 18, 11
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Leveraged Loans: Volume, Trends, Analysis (Europe - September 2011)

  • 1. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update September 2011 Sucheet Gupte - Director Sunday, September 18, 11
  • 2. The Market in August • Summer break • Tinkering with deals, re-evaluating portfolios • Sovereign woes, bad economic numbers continue • New issuance: Bonds disappear, leveraged loans only slightly better out • Prices: Leveraged loans – 94; High yield bonds – 92.57 • Loans return neg. 0.84% during month • One bright spot – No defaults in August Sunday, September 18, 11
  • 3. European loan flow name prices, 2011 100 94.10 as of 8 September 98 96 Text 94 92 2/18 4/1 5/13 6/23 8/4 9/8 1/7 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data Sunday, September 18, 11
  • 4. European HY bond flow name prices, 2011 105 102 99 97 Text 94 90.89 as 91 of 8 Sept. 88 1/7 3/18 5/27 8/4 9/8 Source: Bloomberg . Sunday, September 18, 11
  • 5. ELLI Multi-currency loan return (monthly) 3.5% August: - 0.84% Text YTD: + 0.41% YTD ’10: +3.93% 2.4% 1.3% 0.2% (0.9%) 2/10 4/10 6/10 8/10 10/10 12/10 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data Sunday, September 18, 11
  • 6. New-issue: Loans vs. HY bonds, by month 12 HY bonds Text Loans 9 €billions 6 3 no HY bonds 0 €63M 4/10 6/10 8/10 10/10 12/10 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data . Sunday, September 18, 11
  • 7. ELLI Default rates – European leveraged loans by principle amount by number of defaults 13% 16% 9% 12% 6% 8% Text 2.62% as of 3.77% as of 31 August 31 August 3% 4% 0% 0% 12/07 8/09 8/10 8/11 8/09 8/10 8/11 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data Sunday, September 18, 11
  • 8. Looking ahead • Sovereign situation eating away at confidence • Loans continue to out-return high-yield bonds, equities out • Investors, arrangers continue at odds • Banks weighing investor incentives Sunday, September 18, 11
  • 9. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update September 2011 Sucheet Gupte - Director Sunday, September 18, 11
  • 10. Copyright 2011 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any Text part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are pause made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees. Sunday, September 18, 11