The document forecasts economic and workforce changes in Pennsylvania due to the removal of electricity rate caps, predicting a 10% increase in rates through 2015. The impact on individual households is noted to be substantial in absolute numbers, although small when considered as a percentage of the total economy, with low-income households at greater risk of job and income loss. Additionally, it suggests two lifestyle changes: conservation to reduce electricity costs and substitution to accommodate higher expenses.

1. Your Electrifying Utility Bill A Forecast of Pennsylvania Economic & Workforce Changes Resulting from Removal of Electricity Rate Caps Rose M. Baker David L. Passmore

2. Regulation, Deregulation, Caps… Natural monopoly Generation Transmission Distribution Regulation Deregulation Rate Caps

3. Methods… Baseline forecast of the Pennsylvania economy through 2015 Rate removal forecast conducted by simulating 10% increase in electricity rates through 2015 Benchmark of effects of rate removal = Rate removal forecast minus Baseline forecast

4. Preliminary findings… Impact on macroeconomy and demography depends on perspective Impact on individual households could be substantial

5. Impact on macroeconomy and demography… Substantial, in terms of absolute numbers Small, as a % of total economy and demography

6. Impact on individual households… Small, but real, risk of job and income loss Risks and changes affect low income household more than high income households

7. Two changes in lifestyle likely… Conservation — Reduce electricity expenditures as part of household operations Substitution — Shift expenditures to pay for higher electricity costs

8. What will the rate cap removal mean for your household?

9. Your Electrifying Utility Bill A Forecast of Pennsylvania Economic & Workforce Changes Resulting from Removal of Electricity Rate Caps Rose M. Baker David L. Passmore