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Presentation in ISCRAM Summer School
                 @ Tilburg University, NL on Aug. 20, 2009




Managing Uncertainty in
Crisis Decision Making
                     g

                     XiaoLi Lu
 Ph.D. Researcher @ Leiden University’s Crisis Research
                Centre, The Netherlands
Founding Coordinator @ China Crisis Management Website



                                                             1
Outline
                   Dissertation topic


                   New media in crisis


                   Our China Crisis
                   Management Website
                        g



                         Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis   2
lxlhit@gmail.com
Dissertation
     • Uncertainty in crisis
     • Different ways of coping with uncertainty
          – Simplify; analogy; expertise dependence;
            delegation; wait and see; denial and
            downplay; normalization.
     • Research Q
                Question
          – “why do decision makers adopt different
               y                       p
            mode(s) when facing uncertainty in crisis
            decision making?”
                           g

                       Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis   3
lxlhit@gmail.com
Dissertation (2)
     • Psychology literature
     • An institutional perspective
          – Institutionalized or not:
                   •H i
                     Hurricane response b t
                                         between Chi and US
                                                 China d
                   • Wildfire response between US and Australia
                      – Evacuation VS leave early or stay and defense
          – strategy selection influenced by other
            institutions, such as accountability system
            i tit ti         h          t bilit     t
                   • Blame gaming and accountability system =>
                     various strategy selection
                               Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis   4
lxlhit@gmail.com
New media in 2008 Sichuan
                     Earthquake
     •   5.12 questionnaire design
     •   Finish data collection at the end of May
     •   Snow-ball emails: 456 samples
     •   Internet based information communication
         be a o
         behavior in t es of catast op e
                     times o catastrophe




                     Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis   5
lxlhit@gmail.com
China Crisis Management Website
     • http://www.crisis119.org
     • Team member
     • Bridges
          – [1] researchers across different disciplines,
          – [2] researchers and practitioners in China,
            [ ]                  p                     ,
          – [3] domestic and abroad professionals,
          – [4] junior and senior researchers



                       Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis   6
lxlhit@gmail.com
What we do

     • a resource center and information clearinghouse about
       crisis and disaster management.
     • d t b
       databases
     • Regular newsletter
     • R i f d t support young researchers i di
       Raise funds to         t               h   in disaster
                                                          t
       and crisis related areas.
     • Searching friendly crisis and disaster encyclopedia
         based on Dr. B. Wayne Blanchard’s collection.




                        Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis   7
lxlhit@gmail.com
• Thank you for your time!
     • If you are interested in these please
                                these,
       discuss with me in the following days or
       email me via
     • LXLHIT@GMAIL.COM




                   Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis   8
lxlhit@gmail.com

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Xiaoli Lu Iscram Summer School

  • 1. Presentation in ISCRAM Summer School @ Tilburg University, NL on Aug. 20, 2009 Managing Uncertainty in Crisis Decision Making g XiaoLi Lu Ph.D. Researcher @ Leiden University’s Crisis Research Centre, The Netherlands Founding Coordinator @ China Crisis Management Website 1
  • 2. Outline Dissertation topic New media in crisis Our China Crisis Management Website g Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis 2 lxlhit@gmail.com
  • 3. Dissertation • Uncertainty in crisis • Different ways of coping with uncertainty – Simplify; analogy; expertise dependence; delegation; wait and see; denial and downplay; normalization. • Research Q Question – “why do decision makers adopt different y p mode(s) when facing uncertainty in crisis decision making?” g Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis 3 lxlhit@gmail.com
  • 4. Dissertation (2) • Psychology literature • An institutional perspective – Institutionalized or not: •H i Hurricane response b t between Chi and US China d • Wildfire response between US and Australia – Evacuation VS leave early or stay and defense – strategy selection influenced by other institutions, such as accountability system i tit ti h t bilit t • Blame gaming and accountability system => various strategy selection Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis 4 lxlhit@gmail.com
  • 5. New media in 2008 Sichuan Earthquake • 5.12 questionnaire design • Finish data collection at the end of May • Snow-ball emails: 456 samples • Internet based information communication be a o behavior in t es of catast op e times o catastrophe Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis 5 lxlhit@gmail.com
  • 6. China Crisis Management Website • http://www.crisis119.org • Team member • Bridges – [1] researchers across different disciplines, – [2] researchers and practitioners in China, [ ] p , – [3] domestic and abroad professionals, – [4] junior and senior researchers Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis 6 lxlhit@gmail.com
  • 7. What we do • a resource center and information clearinghouse about crisis and disaster management. • d t b databases • Regular newsletter • R i f d t support young researchers i di Raise funds to t h in disaster t and crisis related areas. • Searching friendly crisis and disaster encyclopedia based on Dr. B. Wayne Blanchard’s collection. Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis 7 lxlhit@gmail.com
  • 8. • Thank you for your time! • If you are interested in these please these, discuss with me in the following days or email me via • LXLHIT@GMAIL.COM Xiao-Li LU: Managing uncertainty in crisis 8 lxlhit@gmail.com