Latest report (available at bit.ly/wesp) shows that growth of the world economy has weakened considerably during 2012 and is expected to remain subdued in the coming two years. The global economy is expected to grow at 2.4 per cent in 2013 and 3.2 per cent in 2014, a significant downgrade from the UN’s forecast of half a year ago.
This slide is created by Alanda Kariza, Indonesian representative for Global Changemakers at the London Summit 2009. She presented about Indonesia's condition and her suggestions to strengthen the global economy.
The Perfect Storm with Chinese Characteristics: A downside Scenario for China...Team Finland Future Watch
A Downside Scenario for China’s Economy.
- Scenario analysis is not use to generate predictions, but rather to generate plausible futures in order to understand how they might come about in order to support planning and strategy formulation. An economic collapse scenario for China’s economy is not the consensus view.
- The scenario described in this document is not a prediction, but rather one plausible future given the current state of China and the world.
OECD’s recent analysis of the economic outlook in OECD and key emerging economies, as well as policy recommendations to spur growth, boost confidence and soften the impact of the jobs crisis. By Pier Carlo Padoan, Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist.
Foreign capital inflow (KI) is arguably a vital source of external capital, especially for developing countries with low domestic savings rate. Investigating the trend of KI into Nigeria, we observed that as a ratio of GDP it was 0.67% in 1979, 6.88% in 1989, 9.45% in 1999, and 19.31% in 2009. Thus, this study �Foreign Capital Inflow and Domestic Private Investment in Nigeria � A Disaggregated Model� is intended to examine the relationship among aggregate KI and domestic private investment (DPI) on one hand, and disaggregated KI and DPI on the other in the period 1986Q1-2012Q4. Variables such as DPI, KI, three inflow components: (foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment (PFI), and remittances (REM)) and dummy are employed. The framework of Khan (2011) which expressed DPI as a function of the explanatory variables was modified and adopted. With coefficient of -0.021 and t-statistic of -0.968 for the first model, the results reveal that aggregate KI has inverse but insignificant relationship with DPI in the short and long run. When disaggregated (second model), FDI coefficient is 0.190 with t-statistic value of 3.013 indicative that the variable has significant growth-inducing impact on DPI. The coefficients of PFI and REM are -0.017 and -0.121 with t-statistic values of -1.105 and -4.887 respectively, suggestive that both have depressing impact on DPI. The joint depressing impact of PFI and REM on DPI is greater than the expansionary impact of FDI on DPI. The coefficient of dummy was found to be significantly positive in determining DPI.
Breakfast with Matt Slaughter - The Global Economic Outlook: What's Next?tuckalumni
The Global Economic Outlook: What's Next?
Here in mid-2012, the global economy continues to expand but also to face significant risks. In Europe, the financial crisis of many banks and sovereigns has worsened in recent months. In the United States, growth in employment and output remain slow—and several difficult fiscal choices await the end of the year. Many BRIC-and-beyond countries continue to grow fast—but in China and India, most notably, growth has slowed the past year. This inaugural “Breakfast with Matt” will examine some of the main factors in the global economic outlook.
About Matthew Slaughter
Associate Dean for the MBA Program; Signal Companies Professor of Management
In addition to academic scholarship, Dean Slaughter writes general-interest items for the business and policy communities. Slaughter has also given speeches to and testified before both chambers of the U.S. Congress. His work and ideas have been widely featured in business media.
The global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the coming two years, but policymakers must ensure that instability in financial markets and underlying fragility in major economies are not allowed to derail growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
Last week we have discussed on "Corporate Performance"
Kindly download details from the following link :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOdJ7180pzE
In this issue, we would be discussing on "Journey of The Rupee"
Kindly download details from the following link :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsI7vs2XMrM&feature=youtu.be
"Knowledge Plus for Wealth + " will give you the overview of the recent happenings in the financial market.
Kindly share your valuable feedback at info@valueplusinv.com to help us serve you better.
Thanks
The financial industry has historically
played a number of fundamental roles in
shaping the modern world.
The activities of the industry supported the development of
the free market, economic expansion, improving the quality of
life, personal and national security, and enabled individuals and
organizations to save and invest. Fulfilling these functions requires
the financial sector to constantly take care of its reputation
and trust in the financial system and respond to the changing
expectations of an increasing number of stakeholders. Today,
the industry is at a key point in its evolution. In the face of climate
change and the consequent changes in investment preferences,
stakeholders expect financial institutions to contribute to a
fairer and more sustainable world and to create a new face of
the financial services sector in which profit and social impact can
coexist.
Why now? The pandemic has reinforced the need to build
a sense of purpose, strengthen confidence in banks,
and help address global issues the economy faces, such
as transformation in the face of climate change. The
accumulation in the public debate of issues such as prosperity,
development, social responsibility, justice, conflict, security, ecology
and sustainable development has created a turning point in
history. To continue to grow, the financial services industry needs
to take care of making profits in tune with multiple stakeholders,
keeping consumers at the center of everything they do. And these
consumers are more concerned than ever about climate change
and expect real action from business.
More: https://www2.deloitte.com/pl/pl/pages/zarzadzania-procesami-i-strategiczne/articles/sustainable-finance-magazine/sustainable-finance-magazine-wydanie-pierwsze.html
Rania Al-Mashat - Minister of Tourism
ERF 24th Annual Conference
The New Normal in the Global Economy: Challenges & Prospects for MENA
July 8-10, 2018
Cairo, Egypt
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
This slide is created by Alanda Kariza, Indonesian representative for Global Changemakers at the London Summit 2009. She presented about Indonesia's condition and her suggestions to strengthen the global economy.
The Perfect Storm with Chinese Characteristics: A downside Scenario for China...Team Finland Future Watch
A Downside Scenario for China’s Economy.
- Scenario analysis is not use to generate predictions, but rather to generate plausible futures in order to understand how they might come about in order to support planning and strategy formulation. An economic collapse scenario for China’s economy is not the consensus view.
- The scenario described in this document is not a prediction, but rather one plausible future given the current state of China and the world.
OECD’s recent analysis of the economic outlook in OECD and key emerging economies, as well as policy recommendations to spur growth, boost confidence and soften the impact of the jobs crisis. By Pier Carlo Padoan, Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist.
Foreign capital inflow (KI) is arguably a vital source of external capital, especially for developing countries with low domestic savings rate. Investigating the trend of KI into Nigeria, we observed that as a ratio of GDP it was 0.67% in 1979, 6.88% in 1989, 9.45% in 1999, and 19.31% in 2009. Thus, this study �Foreign Capital Inflow and Domestic Private Investment in Nigeria � A Disaggregated Model� is intended to examine the relationship among aggregate KI and domestic private investment (DPI) on one hand, and disaggregated KI and DPI on the other in the period 1986Q1-2012Q4. Variables such as DPI, KI, three inflow components: (foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment (PFI), and remittances (REM)) and dummy are employed. The framework of Khan (2011) which expressed DPI as a function of the explanatory variables was modified and adopted. With coefficient of -0.021 and t-statistic of -0.968 for the first model, the results reveal that aggregate KI has inverse but insignificant relationship with DPI in the short and long run. When disaggregated (second model), FDI coefficient is 0.190 with t-statistic value of 3.013 indicative that the variable has significant growth-inducing impact on DPI. The coefficients of PFI and REM are -0.017 and -0.121 with t-statistic values of -1.105 and -4.887 respectively, suggestive that both have depressing impact on DPI. The joint depressing impact of PFI and REM on DPI is greater than the expansionary impact of FDI on DPI. The coefficient of dummy was found to be significantly positive in determining DPI.
Breakfast with Matt Slaughter - The Global Economic Outlook: What's Next?tuckalumni
The Global Economic Outlook: What's Next?
Here in mid-2012, the global economy continues to expand but also to face significant risks. In Europe, the financial crisis of many banks and sovereigns has worsened in recent months. In the United States, growth in employment and output remain slow—and several difficult fiscal choices await the end of the year. Many BRIC-and-beyond countries continue to grow fast—but in China and India, most notably, growth has slowed the past year. This inaugural “Breakfast with Matt” will examine some of the main factors in the global economic outlook.
About Matthew Slaughter
Associate Dean for the MBA Program; Signal Companies Professor of Management
In addition to academic scholarship, Dean Slaughter writes general-interest items for the business and policy communities. Slaughter has also given speeches to and testified before both chambers of the U.S. Congress. His work and ideas have been widely featured in business media.
The global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the coming two years, but policymakers must ensure that instability in financial markets and underlying fragility in major economies are not allowed to derail growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
Last week we have discussed on "Corporate Performance"
Kindly download details from the following link :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOdJ7180pzE
In this issue, we would be discussing on "Journey of The Rupee"
Kindly download details from the following link :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsI7vs2XMrM&feature=youtu.be
"Knowledge Plus for Wealth + " will give you the overview of the recent happenings in the financial market.
Kindly share your valuable feedback at info@valueplusinv.com to help us serve you better.
Thanks
The financial industry has historically
played a number of fundamental roles in
shaping the modern world.
The activities of the industry supported the development of
the free market, economic expansion, improving the quality of
life, personal and national security, and enabled individuals and
organizations to save and invest. Fulfilling these functions requires
the financial sector to constantly take care of its reputation
and trust in the financial system and respond to the changing
expectations of an increasing number of stakeholders. Today,
the industry is at a key point in its evolution. In the face of climate
change and the consequent changes in investment preferences,
stakeholders expect financial institutions to contribute to a
fairer and more sustainable world and to create a new face of
the financial services sector in which profit and social impact can
coexist.
Why now? The pandemic has reinforced the need to build
a sense of purpose, strengthen confidence in banks,
and help address global issues the economy faces, such
as transformation in the face of climate change. The
accumulation in the public debate of issues such as prosperity,
development, social responsibility, justice, conflict, security, ecology
and sustainable development has created a turning point in
history. To continue to grow, the financial services industry needs
to take care of making profits in tune with multiple stakeholders,
keeping consumers at the center of everything they do. And these
consumers are more concerned than ever about climate change
and expect real action from business.
More: https://www2.deloitte.com/pl/pl/pages/zarzadzania-procesami-i-strategiczne/articles/sustainable-finance-magazine/sustainable-finance-magazine-wydanie-pierwsze.html
Rania Al-Mashat - Minister of Tourism
ERF 24th Annual Conference
The New Normal in the Global Economy: Challenges & Prospects for MENA
July 8-10, 2018
Cairo, Egypt
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Publication: RITES Journal July 2014
Organization: Rail India Technical and Economic Service (RITES)
Source: www.rites.com
Date: July 2014
Summary: RITES Ltd., Government of India Enterprise was established in 1974, under the aegis of Indian Railways. It publishes an annual journal and discusses topics of contemporary significance.
Note: Please visit www.compad.in for more information
Global synchronization provide upward bias to Equity based investments once again. In depth look at how Janney breaks down the year ahead and where to invest to take advantage of the reemergence of Global Growth.
At an event at its central London Headquarters, chaired by The Times’ Economics Editor Philip Aldrick, Resolution Foundation Chief Economist Matthew Whittaker presented new analysis on the impact of monetary policy during the downturn. Former MPC member Kate Barker and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times Martin Wolf then debated the future role of monetary policy, before taking part in a wider Q&A.
Today, 54 per cent of the world’s population lives in urban areas, a proportion that is expected to increase to 66 per cent by 2050. Projections show that urbanization combined with the overall growth of the world’s population could add another 2.5 billion people to urban populations by 2050, with close to 90 percent of the increase concentrated in Asia and Africa, according to a new United Nations report launched on 10 July 2014.
Millions of people’s lives have improved due to concerted global, regional, national and local efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which serve as the foundation for the next global development agenda, according to the report launched by the Secretary-General on 7 July 2014.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/publications/mdg-report-2014.html#more-873
DESA News is an insider's look at the United Nations in the area of economic and social development policy. The newsletter is produced by the Communications and Information Management Service of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in collaboration with DESA Divisions. DESA News is issued every month.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/newsletter/desanews/2014/08.html
DESA News is an insider's look at the United Nations in the area of economic and social development policy. The newsletter is produced by the Communications and Information Management Service of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in collaboration with DESA Divisions. DESA News is issued every month.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/newsletter/desanews/2014/07.html
DESA News is an insider's look at the United Nations in the area of economic and social development policy. The newsletter is produced by the Communications and Information Management Service of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in collaboration with DESA Divisions. DESA News is issued every month.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/newsletter/desanews/2014/06.html
DESA News is an insider's look at the United Nations in the area of economic and social development policy. The newsletter is produced by the Communications and Information Management Service of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in collaboration with DESA Divisions. DESA News is issued every month.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/newsletter/desanews/2014/05.html
DESA News is an insider's look at the United Nations in the area of economic and social development policy. The newsletter is produced by the Communications and Information Management Service of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in collaboration with DESA Divisions. DESA News is issued every month.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/newsletter/desanews/2014/04.html
DESA News is an insider's look at the United Nations in the area of economic and social development policy. The newsletter is produced by the Communications and Information Management Service of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in collaboration with DESA Divisions. DESA News is issued every month.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/newsletter/desanews/2014/03.html
E-government—digital interactions between governments and people—varies greatly among and within regions, but most countries are making progress on providing greater access, according to the 2014 UN E-Government Survey launched today. The findings show that the Republic of Korea tops the global e-government ranking, and that Europe remains first among regions.
The report also shows that many countries are expanding electronic participation, utilizing more mobile and social media tools, expanding usage and making more government data available online. However, challenges remain, such as lack of resources, digital inequalities and a lack of leadership for e-government.
“E-government holds tremendous potential to improve the way that governments deliver public services and enhance broad stakeholder involvement in public service,” said Wu Hongbo, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs and Secretary-General for the International Conference on Small Island Developing States.
For more information: http://unpan3.un.org/egovkb#.U7HG_PldVlq
This monthly briefing highlights that financing conditions improve in euro area peripheral countries and in emerging economies, that the US economy bounces back after a difficult first quarter and that China’s first-quarter GDP growth is the slowest in two years.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
The World Youth Report 2013—Youth Migration and Development is the product of the efforts, contributions and support of many people and organizations. From the outset, the process of developing the Report involved a range of participatory
consultations designed to draw on the perspectives of youth on how migration affects them. These consultative sessions
included a five-week e-consultation process, a survey on youth migration and development, a call for visual art
illustrating the daily life experiences of young migrants as well as youth initiatives on migration and development,
and a Google+ Hangout held on 6 March 2013 to identify sustainable solutions for addressing youth migration challenges.
For more information: http://www.unworldyouthreport.org/
The global economy is expected to strengthen over the next two years, despite a downgrade of growth prospects for some developing economies and economies in transition, according to the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2014 mid-year update, launched on 21 May, 2014. Global growth has been revised slightly lower from the forecasts presented in the WESP 2014. Growth of world gross product (WGP) is now projected at 2.8 per cent in 2014 and 3.2 per cent in 2015, up from 2.2 per cent in 2013. However, this pace of expansion is still low compared to the growth path before the 2008 global financial crisis.
For more information: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/index.shtml
The slides contain the detailed maps and graphs of World Fertility Patterns 2013 wall chart which presents the latest data available on indicators of fertility patterns at the national, regional and world levels.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/fertility/fertility-patterns-2013.shtml
The slides contain the detailed maps and graphs of World Contraceptive Patterns 2013 wall chart which presents the latest data available on two of the indicators under Millennium Development Goal 5 to improve maternal health: contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning. Estimates of specific contraceptive methods used in major areas and sub-regions of the world are also presented.
For more information: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/family/contraceptive-wallchart-2013.shtml
This monthly briefing highlights that global employment remains a challenge; the United States Federal Reserve faces challenges in adjusting its monetary policy and that financial markets in emerging economies attempted to stabilize.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
The Economic and Social Council will hold its Special high-level meeting with the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development on 14 and 15 April at the United Nations Headquarters, New York. The overall theme of the meeting will be “Coherence, coordination and cooperation in the context of financing for sustainable development and the post-2015 development agenda”.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/esa/ffd/ecosoc/springmeetings/2014/index.htm
This monthly briefing highlights how the world economy is struggling to gain momentum, emerging economies facing policy dilemma in trying to stabilize currencies and the G20 meeting making a call for new measures to lift growth and create jobs.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
This monthly briefing highlights that emerging economies face renewed financial turbulence, that US economy registered robust GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 and that the last quarter of 2013 revealed a heterogeneous economic performance in the developing world.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
Published by the Division for Social Policy and Development (DSPD) of UN DESA, the report places special focus on policy and disadvantaged social groups, in addition to examining the consequences of high inequality. “Much can be learnt from those countries that managed to reduce inequality even under an uncertain and volatile global environment,” said Mr. Wu Hongbo, UN DESA’s Under–Secretary-General. “The international community can play a role in providing support to policies that help reduce inequality.”
A unique contribution of the report is that it brings special attention to the disparities that are experienced by five specific social and population groups – youth, indigenous peoples, older persons, persons with disabilities and migrants – and also illustrates how such disparities intersect with and reinforce one another.
The report illustrates that growing inequalities can be brought to a stop by integrated policies that are universal in principle while paying particular attention to the needs of disadvantaged and marginalized populations. It reminds world leaders that, in addressing inequalities, policy matters.
For more information:
http://undesadspd.org/ReportontheWorldSocialSituation/2013.aspx
DESA News is an insider's look at the United Nations in the area of economic and social development policy. The newsletter is produced by the Communications and Information Management Service of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in collaboration with DESA Divisions. DESA News is issued every month.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/newsletter/desanews/2014/02.html
More from Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) (20)
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
Here is Gabe Whitley's response to my defamation lawsuit for him calling me a rapist and perjurer in court documents.
You have to read it to believe it, but after you read it, you won't believe it. And I included eight examples of defamatory statements/
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
2. Main messages
1. Renewed global economic slowdown
• Much of Europe mired in recession - trapped in vicious circle of
debt, low growth and high unemployment
• Considerable slowdown worldwide (incl. emerging economies)
• Jobs crisis continues
1. High risk of downward spiral into new global recession
• Escalation of euro area crisis
• Fiscal cliff in the United States
• Hard landing in China & other emerging economies
3. Breaking out of the vicious cycle
• Shift away from self-defeating fiscal austerity
• Redesign fiscal policies to support job creation & green growth
• Coordinate monetary policy & accelerate financial sector reforms
• Enhance development financing
2
3. Slowdown in baseline with significant downside
risks, but hopes for benign rebalancing with
coordinated policies
4. A synchronized global slowdown…
10
8
6 Developing Economies
4
2 Economies in Transition
0 Developed Economies
-2
-4
-6
-8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
4
9. How to get the world economy back
on track?
•Present policy stances insufficient and source of uncertainty
Fundamental policy shift is required:
•Coordination of fiscal policy new growth impulses
•Redesign fiscal and structural policies job creation & green growth
•Monetary policy coordination less capital volatility
•Accelerate financial regulatory reform reduce financial fragility
•Ensure adequate development finance benign rebalancing and
achieving MDGs
9
10. Coordinated strategy for growth and
jobs can lift all boats
Employment in Europe and US will recover by 2014 and 33
million more jobs per year in developing countries
I am pleased to launch today the first chapter of our UN flagship report “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013”, in which we present the global economic outlook. Our analysis illustrates how - four years after the eruption of the global financial crisis - the world economy continues to struggle with the post-crisis adjustments. Growth of world gross product slowed considerably from 2.7% in 2011 to just 2.2% in 2012. The prospects for the coming years continue to be disappointing, with global output forecast to grow by 2.4% in 2013 and 3.2% in 2014 – a pace well below potential, which implies a much slower pace of poverty reduction in many developing countries and a narrowing of fiscal space for investments in education, health, basic sanitation and other critical areas needed for accelerating progress towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
The main messages of the WESP Global Outlook come in three parts: Current Situation: A growing number of developed economies have fallen into double-dip recessions and others are stuck in low growth. Much of Europe is trapped in a vicious cycle of debt, financial fragility, fiscal austerity and high unemployment. At the same time, growth in the major developing countries and economies in transition, especially Brazil, China and India, has slowed significantly over the past year. This reflects both negative spillover effects from the weakness in developed economies (weaker export demand, increased volatility in capital flows and commodity prices) and domestic challenges. The recent slowdown and the subdued growth prospects also mean that we are not seeing any progress regarding the global jobs crisis. 2. Major Risks: While the UN baseline forecast projects sluggish growth in the years ahead, there is also a high risk of a downward spiral that leads the world economy into a new recession. In our analysis, we have highlighted three major risk factors, which pose a threat to global growth – an escalation of the euro area crisis, the fiscal cliff in the United States and a hard landing in China and other emerging economies. 3. The third message we want to convey is mainly addressed to policymakers. We believe that to break out the vicious cycle, a fundamental policy shift is needed. This requires more forceful and concerted policy action at the global level on various fronts: Policies must move away from self-defeating fiscal austerity toward fiscal policy oriented at job creation and green growth; better coordination of monetary policies is needed and more stringent financial sector reforms. And, in light of the severe implications of the global growth slowdown for progress towards attainment of the MDGs, we need to ensure that sufficient resources are made available to developing countries, especially those possessing limited fiscal space and facing large development needs.
Let me now provide some more details regarding the key points raised in the global outlook of WESP 2013. This graph shows our baseline forecast– the dotted blue line – based on the World Economic Forecasting Model. The chart illustrates the ongoing growth slowdown and the fact that despite the expected moderate recovery in 2014, global growth will remain well below the pre-crisis pace. The chart also shows the pessimistic/downside scenario (in light brown), which assumes that euro area crisis deteriorates, that US policymakers fail to avert the fiscal cliff and that most large developing countries see a hard landing in 2013. In this downside scenario, global economic activity is projected to stagnate in 2013, with only a subdued recovery in 2014. Finally, the chart also includes an optimistic scenario (in green), which is based upon a shift in macroeconomic policies around the globe as part of an internationally concerted agenda. We have simulated such a coordinated policy scenario with the UN Global Policy Model (GPM). According to the results of this policy scenario, global growth would rebound and return to a pace similar to the one seen before the crisis in 2008/09.
This chart illustrates that the slowdown has been synchronized across the major world regions. Among developing countries, growth in East Asia, South Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean weakened significantly in 2012 as the regional heavyweights China, India and Brazil saw a sharp slowdown. One notable exception to the overall trend is Africa, where growth in 2012 was stronger than in 2011 as some economies, especially in North Africa, recovered from conflict and political turmoil.
This chart illustrates the vicious cycle many developed economies are caught in and the insufficient policy responses that have been undertaken so far. First of all, unemployment has increased staggeringly and is still on the rise; this is both cause and effect of the lack of economic recovery. Second, the weak economy has compounded financial fragility. Banks, firms and households have moved from excessive leverage to deleveraging, which is holding back normal credit flows and consumer and investment demand. Third, the fiscal austerity responses to deal with rising public debts are further deterring economic growth, which in turn is making a return to debt sustainability all the more difficult. And fourth, bank exposure to sovereign debts and the weak economy are perpetuating financial sector fragility, which in turn is spurring the continuous deleveraging. Governments of developed countries continue to struggle to break through this vicious circle as t he policy focus so far has been placed on repeated rounds of monetary expansion and announcements of structural reforms. Structural reforms at best will have a gradual effect on growth, leaving basically one accelerator to restore growth. At the same time policy makers are putting brakes on growth through other means. Austerity measures prevail on the fiscal front, while many structural reforms are having the short-term effect of weakening so-called automatic stabilizers. Measures are also being taken to help repair the financial system but regulatory reforms are slow and obstacles in implementing them are adding uncertainties. More generally, the credibility of policies is in question in many developed countries and a good deal of policy uncertainty remains (such as in the United States). With only one accelerator and three brakes it seems difficult to break out of the vicious cycle and the risk for the global economy to slip into another recession thus remains unabatedly high.
I have already pointed out that the global jobs crisis continues. And this chart shows that a full recovery of employment levels is still far away, particularly in the Euro area, where the unemployment rate reached a record high in 2012. Based on projections from our partners at the International Labour Organization, at the end of 2016, total employment in the euro area will still be 2 percentage points below the pre-recession peak. The outlook is slightly more positive for other developed economies, including the United States. However, while the US unemployment rate has started to come down in recent months, the participation rate dropped to a new low in 2012, and the share of long-term unemployment (those unemployed for more than six months) reached a historical high of about 40 per cent, well above the peak of 25 per cent in any of the post-World War II recessions.
In the course of 2012, the economic woes of developed economies have increasingly spilled over to developing countries and economies in transition. The two main channels through which these economies were affected are weaker export demand and increased volatility of capital flows (and commodity prices). As an engine of growth, international trade promotes global growth in good times, but it also transmits weaknesses from country to country in bad times. The further slowdown in world trade growth in 2012 - shown in the chart on the right - reflects declining import demand in many European economies, but also a sharp deceleration in much of East Asia, including China. Together with subdued demand in the United States, these weaknesses are creating negative feedback loops, leading to a synchronized downturn in world trade and global output. At the same time, the combination of massive monetary expansion in developed economies and rapidly changing investor sentiment (risk perceptions) has led to heightened capital flow volatility for developing countries, illustrated in the chart on the left. Over the past few years, we have seen several waves of massive capital inflows, followed by large capital outflows as global macroeconomic and financial conditions have remained highly uncertain.
As already alluded to earlier, there are substantial downside risks for the world economy. This chart looks separately at the three major risks analyzed in the report. According to our estimates, based on the World Economic Forecasting Model, the fiscal cliff would have the strongest impact on global growth (However, I should note here that for the euro area crisis, we have estimated the effect of a deepening of the crisis and not a full-fledged breakdown of the common currency). Importantly, for developing economies, the risks associated with a hard landing in China are the greatest.
With these major risks in mind, the question is what can policymakers around the globe do to get the world economy back on track. The present policy stances are clearly insufficient and have further increased uncertainty, rather than reducing it. We highlight five different areas, where a fundamental policy shift is required: First, fiscal policy stances will need to be changed to provide new growth impulses and this needs to coordinated internationally. The second and related challenge for all countries will be to redesign fiscal policy—and economic policies more broadly—in order to strengthen the impact on employment and promote structural change for green, and thus, more sustainable economic growth. Third, monetary policy actions need to be better coordinated to ensure that capital flows, especially to developing countries and economies in transition are less volatile. Fourth, efforts to implement financial regulatory reform need to be stepped up in order to reduce financial fragility. And fifth, we need to ensure that adequate development finance is made available for countries possessing limited fiscal space and facing large development needs. These resources will be needed to accelerate progress towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and for investments in sustainable and resilient growth, especially for the LDCs.
The alternative scenario, based on the agenda outlined above, includes a shift in fiscal policies away from austerity and towards more job creation through, inter alia, more spending on infrastructure; energy efficiency, social programmes and tax and subsidy measures to stimulate private investment projects in these areas; continued expansionary monetary policies aligned with stronger capital account regulation to stem capital flow volatility; and enhanced development assistance to the poorest nations. The UN Global Policy Model simulations show that under such a policy scenario, WGP would grow at an average rate of 4.5 per cent between 2013 and 2017, public debt-to-GDP ratios would stabilize and start falling from 2016 or earlier. Employment levels in major developed countries would gradually increase and return to pre-crises levels in absolute terms by 2014 and by 2017 after accounting for labour force growth. The employment recovery thus would come much sooner than in the baseline, although remaining protracted even with the suggested internationally concerted strategy for growth and jobs. An additional 33 million jobs per year on average would be created in developing and transition economies between 2013 and 2017.