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Why Risk Matters: Deriving Profit by
Knowing the Unknown
Enterprises that invest in strengthening their risk-management
capabilities are well placed to manage known risks and identify
unforeseen ones, thereby reducing risk-related expenditures
and accruing greater profits.
Executive Summary
This white paper discusses risk and risk manage-
ment from a nontraditional viewpoint. It argues
that the most critical aspect of risk management
is an organization’s ability to understand and
identify various kinds of risk that it faces. Further,
the paper posits that this understanding of types
of risk is even more important than the organi-
zation’s formal financial or operational plans,
or traditional corporate strategies designed to
identify and eliminate those risks through correc-
tive measures or mitigate their negative effects.
Moreover, it is specifically those risks of which an
organization is completely unaware that pose the
greatest inherent threat, precisely because their
effects are unknown and, thus, unquantifiable.
These unknown risks, therefore, have the greatest
potential to be the most disastrous to the entire
corporate enterprise.
On the other hand, successfully identifying these
unknown risks also holds the greatest potential
to turn these unknown risks into profit. Unknown
risk can be directly linked to unknown, albeit real,
financial losses. That is, losses from unknown risk
are not even accounted for from an accounting
practice perspective. Identifying the unknown
risk enables formal accounting of the associated
loss. The immediate remediation of that financial
loss leads to formal accounting of the recap-
tured revenues. The enterprise now recoups and
formally tracks the additional “cost-avoidance”
profit. This cost recuperation and cost avoidance
in the future is quantifiable and therefore goes
directly to the bottom line as corporate income.
This paper discusses the various types of risk
and some well-known historical examples of the
potentially disastrous effects of both unknown
and unaddressed risks to the corporate enter-
prise. The paper then presents an approach for
identifying risk and formulating a plan to mitigate
its negative effects.
Risk at a Glance
A reasonable definition of risk is: “uncertainty in
the likelihood of a favorable outcome.” From the
opposite viewpoint, “risk is a calculation of the
probability of an unfavorable outcome.”
More formally, Funk and Wagnall’s Encyclopedic
Dictionary defines risk as “exposure to the chance
of injury or loss; a chance of encountering harm
or loss.”1
And Wikipedia defines risk as “…the
potential that a given action or activity (including
• Cognizant 20-20 Insights
cognizant 20-20 insights | april 2014
2
the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss (an unde-
sirable outcome).”2
Risk is an intrinsic part of every activity. Regard-
less of the activity, managing risk, by eliminating
or mitigating its effects, will yield a greater chance
of a favorable outcome. Therefore, an important
part of risk management is prioritizing how an
organization will eliminate or mitigate risk.
If we consider the degree to which an outcome
is unfavorable — the deleterious effect of the
negative outcome — then we have a metric for
gauging the potential severity of loss. The more
potential for damage from a given risk, the more
important it is to avoid or mitigate the risk. But
before an organization can control its risks, it
must clearly identify and document the risks
throughout its entire operation.
Addressing risk requires a concerted, focused
effort across the enterprise that must encompass
consideration of all types of risk. Often, organi-
zations have risk that is unknown — they are not
aware of its existence. It is these unknown risks
that pose the greatest threat to a favorable
outcome of an activity precisely because the
loss from the unknown risk cannot be identified,
evaluated and quantified. Unknown risks are akin
to icebergs, with their 90% of unidentified mass
looming ominously below the water surface (see
Figure 1).
Types of Risk
Perhaps nonintuitively, an organization’s vulner-
ability stems less from its decision about whether
or not to address risk and more from its failure to
identify the existence of risk and to understand
the nature of the risk. Looking again at the defini-
tions of risk above, we see that all risk is inherent-
ly related to uncertainty. Uncertainty represents
the unknown. Thus, the very nature of risk is the
uncertainty of what one knows.
Donald Rumsfeld, former U.S. Secretary of
Defense, talks about three categories of risk in his
latest book, Known and Unknown:3
•	Known knowns.
•	Known unknowns.
•	Unknown unknowns.
cognizant 20-20 insights
Unknown Risks Have a Dangerous Yet Unfathomable
Impact Like a Submerged Iceberg
Known
Unknown
Risk
Known Risk
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Known
Unknown
Risk
Known Risk
Figure 1
3cognizant 20-20 insights
Although neither the concept of these categories
nor the nomenclature are new by any stretch of
the imagination, Rumsfeld’s use of these terms
during his tenure as Secretary of Defense and
now in his recent book has made them dramati-
cally more popular recently in forums such as
security and project management Web sites.4
These types of risk are discussed below.
Known Knowns: Identifiable Risks and
Quantifiable Loss
This is, perhaps, the most obvious category of
risk, representing risks that are easily identified,
even if the extent of potential loss or harm cannot
be easily quantified.
A very famous case that gained worldwide
notoriety in the 1970s was that of Ford Pinto’s gas
tank design. The Pinto was a small, relatively inex-
pensive car that was conceived to compete with
German and Japanese models in the lucrative
U.S. domestic small-car market. By 1968, foreign
car sales had captured approximately 10% of that
market. Thus, Ford wanted to aggressively reduce
costs per unit sold in order to be price-competi-
tive there.5
Ford engineers knew early on from exhaus-
tive industrial testing that the Pinto’s gas tank
would explode upon rear impact, even at very
low speeds, as a result of bolts rupturing the
gas tank when pushed forward by a rear force.
Despite Ford’s ownership of patents on a safer
gas tank that would cost only $8.00 per produc-
tion vehicle — as well as the availability of several
other solutions, one costing only $5.08 per
vehicle — Ford executive management decided to
forego implementing any of the available fixes of
the flawed design, which would have mitigated
the known risks of the inherent vulnerability of
the gas tank design. Ford actuaries estimated
that approximately 500 people would die each
year in fires resulting from rear impact collisions.
Nevertheless, the Ford Motor Co. performed a
cost-benefit analysis that concluded that, statisti-
cally, Ford would spend more to put a fix into pro-
duction than it would likely end up paying in legal
fees and court settlements.6
This is an example of a risk that was well under-
stood and quantified: the risk of not fixing the
faulty gas tank design. The risk of financial loss
directly related to legal settlements was identi-
fied and compared to the loss (investment or
overhead) of fixing the faulty design. In this case,
the loss that could result from the occurrence of
an unfavorable result could be quantified.
While this Ford Pinto exposĂŠ cogently explains
“known risk,” it also underscores the critical
importance of identifying and addressing all risks.
The Ford actuaries, engineers, CPAs, attorneys
and senior executives failed to consider the risk
of financial damage that might result from bad
public relations and a loss of customer trust and
faith as well as the damage to the brand name,
The Greatest Risk Is the Unknown, the Potential for
Damage from the Unknown Unknowns
Unknown Unknowns
Known Unknowns
Known Knowns
Increasing magnitude oof
damage resulting from
unidentied risk
Figure 2
cognizant 20-20 insights 4
which took 70 years to develop! While one could
argue that Ford is doing well today, four decades
later people still cite this example when discuss-
ing unethical corporate behavior, consumer
issues and so forth. And perhaps Ford would have
done much better in the past 40 years had the
Pinto case never occurred.
Ford’s decision about how to address the risk was
a policy issue, and while risk management policy
is certainly part of any comprehensive risk man-
agement strategy, it is not within the scope of this
paper. Nevertheless, it is intrinsically related to
the activity of identifying, calculating and evalu-
ating the degree of potential damage, loss or
other unfavorable outcome.
Known Unknowns: Awareness of
Gaps in Knowledge
This category represents risks that are known:
risks of which one is aware. However, despite
the awareness of the existence of a risk, what
remains unknown is the extent of the potential
damage that can result from it. Simply put, the
organization does not know how to quantify or
calculate the extent of the potential damage that
could result from an unfavorable outcome.
An interesting example of
a known unknown risk, and
one that is very germane
to information systems-ori-
ented discussions, is zero
balance accounting (ZBA).7
Prior to computer software
that implemented ZBA, first
created by Marshall and
Isley (M&I), the majority of
corporations did not have
an automated accounting
system designed to link and
capture disparate data, fuse them into a consoli-
dation account and perform granular accounting
of their intraday cash and disbursement obliga-
tions. Corporations did not have a good way to
determine how much cash they needed to cover
both their end-of-day (EOD) disbursements and
overnight investment options.
If a corporation didn’t have enough cash buffer,
there would always be the risk and embar-
rassment of overdrafts, with resulting interest
penalties of 1/360th
of the prevailing overnight
Federal Funds Rate of the Federal Reserve Bank
of New York (FRBNY).8
The M&I software accurately tracked corporate
banks’ commercial clients’ immediate needs for
overnight cash. It supported demand deposit
accounting and offered a solution that eliminated
the risks in disbursement and accounting regu-
larities.
The crux of this example is that although the
problem was understood, there was no known
solution to eliminate the risks prior to the M&I
software package with its ZBA software module.
Unknown Unknowns: The Epitome of Risk
The last of the three risk categories is called
unknownunknowns.Thiscategoryrepresentsrisks
about whose existence an organization or enter-
prise is not even aware. As Rumsfeld commented
in his famous “unknown unknowns” speech, “How
do you prepare for the unexpected?”
His rhetorical question is all-encompassing:
Of course the goal of risk management in any
arena is to prepare for the unexpected. Notwith-
standing that, one could ask the more focused
questions: “How do you identify or discover that
which is unknown? And, how can you prepare for
something that you don’t even know exists?” This
conundrum represents the challenge of identify-
ing risks related to any organization or enterprise.
In the 1980s, the then JP Morgan Bank of New York
had 26 different general ledger systems in opera-
tion at the same time. Naturally, the existence of
these IS/IT systems had intrinsic risk associated
with them — as does every other operation and
computing system. The “unknown unknown,”
however, was that no one in management, audit or
compliance in the entire corporation knew exactly
how the 26 general ledger systems and their
divergent supporting 1,000-plus legacy systems
mapped or how they were used in the daily opera-
tion of the bank.9
Because of this situation, the
entire bank enterprise was at risk.
In modern accounting, general ledger software
acts as a central repository holding formal
permanent records for the double-entry control
of the accounting data. Typically, data is trans-
ferred from modules such as accounts payable,
accounts receivable, cash management, fixed
assets, property, plant and equipment (PP&E) and
purchasing.10
“How can you prepare
for something that
you don’t even
know exists?” This
conundrum represents
the challenge of
identifying risks related
to any organization
or enterprise.
cognizant 20-20 insights 5
In the case of JP Morgan Bank, it has historically
suffered consistent financial penalties imposed
by both the U.S. federal government and the
UK government for inaccurate and incomplete
accounting and compliance violations. The bank’s
ongoing inability to resolve accounting irregulari-
ties was a direct result of its failure to coordinate
the undocumented 1,000-plus legacy systems
and their intrinsic undocumented financial risks.
For example, in spring 2013, JP Morgan Chase
Bank was fined $1.65 billion on receivables of
$100 billion that it made in Wales in the UK stock
market. And in spring/summer 2013, JP Morgan
Chase Bank paid the $1.65 billion in penalties.9
An interesting twist to the JP Morgan Chase Bank
example is that the bank’s executive management
perceived the $1.65 billion penalty as merely a
“wheat tax,” or a “cost of doing business.” And
after the financial penalties were levied and paid,
Jamie Dimon, Chairman of the Board (COB) of JP
Morgan Chase Bank, decided not to make capital
investments to remediate the IS/IT, process
and work flow deficiencies to fix the problem
because it was cheaper to pay the penalties than
to address the problem. The $1.65 billion penalty
represented a 1.67% tax, or merely a cost of doing
business.9
This example highlights the risk of the unknown
— the risk of not knowing the unknown. Unlike
the Ford Pinto example where the risk was known
at the outset and the company could indeed
make a realistic assessment of the extent of the
financial loss from unfavorable outcomes, in the
JP Morgan Chase Bank case the risk was not
known because the cause of the risk was never
identified. Therefore, the extent of the potential
damage and resulting financial loss could not
be identified, monitored, captured, evaluated,
assessed or quantified.
But the two examples also share one similar-
ity. Just as Ford’s decision not to remediate the
defective gas tank design was a policy decision,
so too was JP Morgan Chase Bank’s opting not
to fix the problems within its enterprise a cost-
avoidance-motivated policy decision. One can
conclude, however, that JP Morgan Chase Bank
was fortunate that the damage incurred was
“acceptable.” This outcome will not always be the
case. In fact, it would be prudent for any organi-
zation to assume that the unfavorable outcome
they experience will not be “acceptable.”
The JP Morgan Chase Bank case exemplifies the
notion that no organization can possibly assess
the potential damage asso-
ciated with a risk if it can’t
even identify the existence of
the risk.
Herein lies the reason that,
arguably, unknown unknowns
is the most risky category. By
risky we mean that either
the likelihood of the unfavor-
able outcome or its impact
is greater. This idea can be
expressed more formally
using the following formula:
Risk = probability of risk occurring
x impact of risk occurring
Monte Carlo theory and Black Swan theory are
used in risk management to identify various
scenarios and outcomes.11
An inescapable step in
the process of risk management is the need to first
identify the jeopardy.One cannot assign, calculate
or estimate the probability of an outcome if one
can’t identify the risk that could cause that unfa-
vorable outcome. Consequently, the greatest risk
always comes from the unknown.
Identifying, Comprehending and
Addressing Risk
To underscore the importance of comprehen-
sively identifying all risks, think of the reality that
simply because one cannot identify the existence
of a real risk does not mean that the risk is not
present. Moreover, every activity or endeavor has
a unique set of individual intrinsic risks, which
makes consideration of risk an imperative for any
enterprise. This section focuses on identification
and comprehension of unknown risks.
Even for the first two categories of risk presented
above, creating a solution to reduce the prob-
ability of unfavorable outcomes is a distinctly
different activity than identifying the associated
risk. Certainly for any company or enterprise,
designing a solution is more often than not a
nontrivial undertaking that probably involves
many departments including strategic planning,
project and program management, IS/IT depart-
ments, QA/QC, actuaries, statisticians, operations
research (OR) and so forth.12
The JP Morgan Chase
Bank case exemplifies
the notion that no
organization can
possibly assess the
potential damage
associated with a risk if
it can’t even identify the
existence of the risk.
cognizant 20-20 insights 6
RISK
CHANG
E
MGMT
RISK
BI RISK
MARKE
T RISK
SALES
RISK
OPERA
TIONS
RISK
ANALY
TICS
RISK
DATA
RISK
JIT
SUPPLY
CHAIN
RISK
OTHER
BUSINE
SS RISK
Change
Management
Other Business
Risk
Analytics
Risk
Data Risk
JIT Supply
Chain Risk
Operations
Risk
Sales Risk
Market Risk
BI Risk
RISK
Figure 3
Risk Categories: A Comprehensive Look
Discovery Phase
To reduce the probability of unfavorable outcomes
occurring, one must identify risks, understand
and document them and make plans to eliminate
unfavorable outcomes or mitigate their effects.
In the first two categories of risk, the risks are
known even if not documented. In the known
knowns category, the risks are known explicitly.
In the known unknowns category, too, the risks
are known although the solution to eliminate or
mitigate the effects of unfavorable outcomes is
not known and has yet to be developed.
However, in the unknown unknowns category,
neither the risk nor the solution is known. And
this category is the one that needs the most
attention in any organization.
Perhaps unfortunately, there is no formula or
esoteric theory that explains how to uncover
unknown unknown risks. But the process is rela-
tively straightforward, albeit it requires a method-
ical effort of a certain kind.
Before getting into that method, it helps to first
analyze the problem in more depth. In many orga-
nizations, individuals know their job functions,
even if they are not formally documented.
However, there might be only a few people who
understand an organization’s entire enterprise-
wide processes or work flows from the top
down, particularly in large organizations. This
creates the phenomenon within an organization
of isolated, undocumented silos, also known as
“archipelagos” of information and knowledge.13, 14
Returning to the JP Morgan Chase Bank example,
very few people in the company definitively knew
that there existed 26 general ledger applications
and 1,000+ undocumented legacy systems and
applications in use. Each department knew of the
existence of the application in its specific purview.
But personnel didn’t seem to think about “what
happens to our data when we send it along down-
stream” to another department or entity within
the larger organization. No one clearly understood
the totality of the entire enterprise-wide data and
work flows. It was painfully clear that no one at
JP Morgan Chase truly understood the ramifica-
tions of the legacy enterprise-wide process, work
flows and their costly intrinsic financial risks to
the profitability of the enterprise.
The discovery of the existence of the 26 general
ledger applications occurred during an audit.
However, the “audit” was a hybrid or combina-
tion operation that was part of a larger program
of modernization. In the end, it was the inquisi-
tive nature of one individual who asked many
questions about the company’s operations that
led to the discovery of the risk related to the
multiple general ledgers.9
cognizant 20-20 insights 7
The only viable approach to discover the unknown
unknowns might be a very comprehensive ques-
tion-and-answer (Q&A) process whose purpose
is to identify, discover, document and explain an
enterprise’s operations.
Often, the “experts” are not the suitable individu-
als for this work.
While the interviewer should be someone with
knowledge of the organization’s domain, he or she
should be an outsider not privy to details of the
operation. This individual should ask questions
whose answer appears obvious to the subject
matter experts (SMEs). The strategic nature
of questions should address enterprise-wide
concerns such as inter- and intra-departmental
work flows, work breakdown structures (WBS),
data flow diagrams (DFDs), quality control rates,
error rates, variance analysis (VA), trend analysis,
historical statistical records, just-in-time (JIT)
inventory control, JIT green supply chains, asset
management, warehousing, outsourcing work
functions, federal and state regulatory financial
penalties, federal, state, and city taxes actually
paid and enterprise processes, among other
categories.
A suitable candidate for this role would be
an enterprise architect who can freely pose
questions that address both business analysis as
well as technical concerns. The questions should
focus on all aspects of known and unknown risks.
For example, one should ask “what happens if
there is a discrepancy in general ledger applica-
tion A?” The Q&A sessions should involve diversi-
fied SMEs knowledgeable about the enterprise’s
entire operation.
The enterprise architect should be the catalyst
who precipitates the fallout of information that
was previously assumed or known implicitly by
the silos but was unbeknownst to all. The architect
is a facilitator, the ombudsman, the honest broker
who elicits the discovery of information that cuts
across the stove pipes, domains, perspectives and
viewpoints of the enterprise.
Risk Management Yields Profitability
Corporations see risk management, audit
and compliance as an unnecessary operating
expense. But in reality, reduction of any kind of
loss through risk management leads to positive
bottom-line profits.
Risk leads to unfavorable outcomes and loss,
which enterprises usually valuate in financial
terms. Obviously, reducing risk reduces financial
loss, which saves money and positively impacts
the bottom line.
Cost-Benefit Analysis, GAP Analysis, Variance
Analysis, Cost Avoidance
For known risks whose loss is quantifiable, it is
easy enough to predict savings that result from
their elimination. On the other hand, how does
one quantify loss — or savings — if one cannot
even define or identify the risk in the unknown
unknowns category?
The loss from unknown risk is very real. To
reiterate, just because the risk is not known does
not mean it does not exist.
For example, in the case of
JP Morgan Chase Bank’s
26 general ledger systems,
obviously the bank incurred
a real cost associated with
operating these systems.
But if the systems were
not listed and constantly
tracked on an account-
ing ledger, no one could
quantify the operating costs
or their financial losses and
compliance-incurred regu-
latory penalties. Perhaps
the corporation’s liabili-
ties balanced, but it was
probably impossible to correlate an amount
with the cost of the systems. Therefore, how
could the bank know how to reduce risk, in this
case financial risk that resulted from extraneous
overhead, if the bank could not even identify the
existence of it?
If the bank could identify the redundancy in its
general ledger systems, and if it chose to eliminate
it, it could then accurately report reduction in
overhead — a new bottom-line profit. Additionally,
it’s likely that it would also reduce the probability
of accounting discrepancies and other kinds of
unfavorable outcomes in daily operations.15
In this way, identifying unknown unknowns leads
to increased profit. That profit is not from an
already identified loss. It comes from the identi-
fication of an unknown loss.
The only viable
approach to discover
the unknown
unknowns might be a
very comprehensive
question-and-answer
(Q&A) process whose
purpose is to identify,
discover, document and
explain an enterprise’s
operations.
cognizant 20-20 insights 8
Looking Ahead
Risk management is a broad topic with many
facets. But perhaps the most important aspect
of risk management is the need to identify and
document the risks and, ultimately, to evaluate
the extent of financial damages directly resulting
from an unfavorable risk-related outcome.
Among the three categories of risk, assessing the
potential for loss or harm from unknown risks
is the most important to address. Risk manage-
ment is the discipline of eliminating, reducing or
mitigating the deleterious effects that occur as a
result of the occurrence of unfavorable outcomes.
One cannot do this if one cannot first fully identify
the risks.
A compelling method for uncovering the
unknown risks that an enterprise faces is to
use a strategic Q&A interview process. Detailed
Q&A sessions between facilitators and business
experts can elucidate critical pieces of informa-
tion about an organization’s operations. It might
even be necessary to include pedantic questions
to precipitate the discovery of information that
some might consider obvious. But what might be
implicit knowledge to some could be unknown to
others. The right information must be put in the
right hands — those that need to address risk in
an organization.
Successfully identifying unknown risks will lead to
profit from newly identified losses that were pre-
viously not even known and therefore impossible
to recoup.
Footnotes
1	
Funk and Wagnall’s Standard College Dictionary, The Reader’s Digest Association, 1966, Library of
Congress catalog no. 66-21606.
2	
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk.
3	
Donald Rumsfeld, Known and Unknown: A Personal Memoir, Penguin Group USA, February 2011, ISBN-13:
9781595230676.
4	
Project Risk Management Community of Practice Web site forum article, http://risk.vc.pmi.org/Public/
Community/Discussions/tabid/972/aft/2170/Default.aspx.
5	
Mark Dowie, “Pinto Madness,” Mother Jones Journal, September/October 1977 issue.
6	
Ralph Nader, Unsafe at Any Speed: The Designed-In Dangers of the American Automobile, Knightsbridge
Publishing Company, Massachusetts, c1991, ISBN-13: 978-1561290505.
7	
Investor Glossary Web site, “Zero Balance Accounting,” http://www.investorglossary.com/zba.htm.
8	
Gerard LaTournernie, M.A., M.B.A, “Risk in the U.S. Financial Industry,” February 2013, http://wexfordsys-
temsllc.com. (The paper can be requested from the site.)
9	
Gerard LaTournerie, M.A., M.B.A., “The Morgan Bank General Ledger Audit,” personal interview, October
2012.
10	
Investopedia web site, “General Ledger” article, http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/generalledger.asp.
11	
Dr. Ing. Tilo Nemuth, “Practical Use of Monte Carlo Simulation for Risk Management within the Internation-
al Construction Industry,” Grauber, Schmidt and Proske: Proceedings of the 6th International Probabilistic
Workshop, Darmstadt 2008.
12	
Gerard LaTournerie, M.A., M.B.A., “Risk Management in International Compliance,” March 2010,
http://wexfordsystemsllc.com. (The paper can be requested from the site.).
13	
F. Warren McFarlan, James L. McKenney, and Philip Pyburn, “The information archipelago — plotting a
course,” Harvard Business Review 61, no. 1: 145-156, 1983.
14	
Oded Weiss, “Global Investment Banking: Challenges Surrounding the Design of Information Systems for
the 21st Century,” Master’s thesis, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
1998.
15	
Gerard LaTournerie, M.A., M.B.A., “Creation of the Angolan Stock Exchange,” Research for Computer
Management Group, c. 2011-2013.
About Cognizant
Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) is a leading provider of information technology, consulting, and business process out-
sourcing services, dedicated to helping the world’s leading companies build stronger businesses. Headquartered in
Teaneck, New Jersey (U.S.), Cognizant combines a passion for client satisfaction, technology innovation, deep industry
and business process expertise, and a global, collaborative workforce that embodies the future of work. With over 50
delivery centers worldwide and approximately 171,400 employees as of December 31, 2013, Cognizant is a member of
the NASDAQ-100, the S&P 500, the Forbes Global 2000, and the Fortune 500 and is ranked among the top performing
and fastest growing companies in the world. Visit us online at www.cognizant.com or follow us on Twitter: Cognizant.
World Headquarters
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Phone: +1 201 801 0233
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Email: inquiry@cognizant.com
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Email: inquiryindia@cognizant.com
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means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the express written permission from Cognizant. The information contained herein is
subject to change without notice. All other trademarks mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners.
About the Author
Vartan Piroumian is an Enterprise Architect with Cognizant Technology Solutions. He started his career
as a software engineer, moving into software architecture and then enterprise architecture. He has a
bachelor’s degree in computer science, which he has studied at MIT and the University of California,
Irvine. Vartan has authored two books on Java technology, “Java GUI Development” and “J2ME Wireless
Platform Programming,” and several journal articles on computer science and information technology.
He is currently working on a book on risk management. Vartan can be reached at Vartan.Piroumian@
cognizant.com.

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Why Risk Matters: Deriving Profit by Knowing the Unknown

  • 1. Why Risk Matters: Deriving Profit by Knowing the Unknown Enterprises that invest in strengthening their risk-management capabilities are well placed to manage known risks and identify unforeseen ones, thereby reducing risk-related expenditures and accruing greater profits. Executive Summary This white paper discusses risk and risk manage- ment from a nontraditional viewpoint. It argues that the most critical aspect of risk management is an organization’s ability to understand and identify various kinds of risk that it faces. Further, the paper posits that this understanding of types of risk is even more important than the organi- zation’s formal financial or operational plans, or traditional corporate strategies designed to identify and eliminate those risks through correc- tive measures or mitigate their negative effects. Moreover, it is specifically those risks of which an organization is completely unaware that pose the greatest inherent threat, precisely because their effects are unknown and, thus, unquantifiable. These unknown risks, therefore, have the greatest potential to be the most disastrous to the entire corporate enterprise. On the other hand, successfully identifying these unknown risks also holds the greatest potential to turn these unknown risks into profit. Unknown risk can be directly linked to unknown, albeit real, financial losses. That is, losses from unknown risk are not even accounted for from an accounting practice perspective. Identifying the unknown risk enables formal accounting of the associated loss. The immediate remediation of that financial loss leads to formal accounting of the recap- tured revenues. The enterprise now recoups and formally tracks the additional “cost-avoidance” profit. This cost recuperation and cost avoidance in the future is quantifiable and therefore goes directly to the bottom line as corporate income. This paper discusses the various types of risk and some well-known historical examples of the potentially disastrous effects of both unknown and unaddressed risks to the corporate enter- prise. The paper then presents an approach for identifying risk and formulating a plan to mitigate its negative effects. Risk at a Glance A reasonable definition of risk is: “uncertainty in the likelihood of a favorable outcome.” From the opposite viewpoint, “risk is a calculation of the probability of an unfavorable outcome.” More formally, Funk and Wagnall’s Encyclopedic Dictionary defines risk as “exposure to the chance of injury or loss; a chance of encountering harm or loss.”1 And Wikipedia defines risk as “…the potential that a given action or activity (including • Cognizant 20-20 Insights cognizant 20-20 insights | april 2014
  • 2. 2 the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss (an unde- sirable outcome).”2 Risk is an intrinsic part of every activity. Regard- less of the activity, managing risk, by eliminating or mitigating its effects, will yield a greater chance of a favorable outcome. Therefore, an important part of risk management is prioritizing how an organization will eliminate or mitigate risk. If we consider the degree to which an outcome is unfavorable — the deleterious effect of the negative outcome — then we have a metric for gauging the potential severity of loss. The more potential for damage from a given risk, the more important it is to avoid or mitigate the risk. But before an organization can control its risks, it must clearly identify and document the risks throughout its entire operation. Addressing risk requires a concerted, focused effort across the enterprise that must encompass consideration of all types of risk. Often, organi- zations have risk that is unknown — they are not aware of its existence. It is these unknown risks that pose the greatest threat to a favorable outcome of an activity precisely because the loss from the unknown risk cannot be identified, evaluated and quantified. Unknown risks are akin to icebergs, with their 90% of unidentified mass looming ominously below the water surface (see Figure 1). Types of Risk Perhaps nonintuitively, an organization’s vulner- ability stems less from its decision about whether or not to address risk and more from its failure to identify the existence of risk and to understand the nature of the risk. Looking again at the defini- tions of risk above, we see that all risk is inherent- ly related to uncertainty. Uncertainty represents the unknown. Thus, the very nature of risk is the uncertainty of what one knows. Donald Rumsfeld, former U.S. Secretary of Defense, talks about three categories of risk in his latest book, Known and Unknown:3 • Known knowns. • Known unknowns. • Unknown unknowns. cognizant 20-20 insights Unknown Risks Have a Dangerous Yet Unfathomable Impact Like a Submerged Iceberg Known Unknown Risk Known Risk KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKnnnnnnnnnnnnnnooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnnKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUnnnnnnnnnnkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkknnnnnnnnnnnnnnoooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnUUUUUUnnnnnnnnnnnnnn noooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRiiiiiiiiiiissssssssssssssskkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRiiiiiiiii kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk oooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRiiiiiiiiissssssoooooooooowwwKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKnnoooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwnnKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKnnnnnnnnnnnnnooooooooooooKKKKKKKKKnnnnnnnooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwoooooooooooowKKKKKKKKKKKKnnnnnnnnnnnooooooowwww RRRRRRRRRRiiiiiiiiiiisssssssssssssssskkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkknnnnnnn RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR sssssssskkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkiiiiiiiii Known Unknown Risk Known Risk Figure 1
  • 3. 3cognizant 20-20 insights Although neither the concept of these categories nor the nomenclature are new by any stretch of the imagination, Rumsfeld’s use of these terms during his tenure as Secretary of Defense and now in his recent book has made them dramati- cally more popular recently in forums such as security and project management Web sites.4 These types of risk are discussed below. Known Knowns: Identifiable Risks and Quantifiable Loss This is, perhaps, the most obvious category of risk, representing risks that are easily identified, even if the extent of potential loss or harm cannot be easily quantified. A very famous case that gained worldwide notoriety in the 1970s was that of Ford Pinto’s gas tank design. The Pinto was a small, relatively inex- pensive car that was conceived to compete with German and Japanese models in the lucrative U.S. domestic small-car market. By 1968, foreign car sales had captured approximately 10% of that market. Thus, Ford wanted to aggressively reduce costs per unit sold in order to be price-competi- tive there.5 Ford engineers knew early on from exhaus- tive industrial testing that the Pinto’s gas tank would explode upon rear impact, even at very low speeds, as a result of bolts rupturing the gas tank when pushed forward by a rear force. Despite Ford’s ownership of patents on a safer gas tank that would cost only $8.00 per produc- tion vehicle — as well as the availability of several other solutions, one costing only $5.08 per vehicle — Ford executive management decided to forego implementing any of the available fixes of the flawed design, which would have mitigated the known risks of the inherent vulnerability of the gas tank design. Ford actuaries estimated that approximately 500 people would die each year in fires resulting from rear impact collisions. Nevertheless, the Ford Motor Co. performed a cost-benefit analysis that concluded that, statisti- cally, Ford would spend more to put a fix into pro- duction than it would likely end up paying in legal fees and court settlements.6 This is an example of a risk that was well under- stood and quantified: the risk of not fixing the faulty gas tank design. The risk of financial loss directly related to legal settlements was identi- fied and compared to the loss (investment or overhead) of fixing the faulty design. In this case, the loss that could result from the occurrence of an unfavorable result could be quantified. While this Ford Pinto exposĂŠ cogently explains “known risk,” it also underscores the critical importance of identifying and addressing all risks. The Ford actuaries, engineers, CPAs, attorneys and senior executives failed to consider the risk of financial damage that might result from bad public relations and a loss of customer trust and faith as well as the damage to the brand name, The Greatest Risk Is the Unknown, the Potential for Damage from the Unknown Unknowns Unknown Unknowns Known Unknowns Known Knowns Increasing magnitude oof damage resulting from unidentied risk Figure 2
  • 4. cognizant 20-20 insights 4 which took 70 years to develop! While one could argue that Ford is doing well today, four decades later people still cite this example when discuss- ing unethical corporate behavior, consumer issues and so forth. And perhaps Ford would have done much better in the past 40 years had the Pinto case never occurred. Ford’s decision about how to address the risk was a policy issue, and while risk management policy is certainly part of any comprehensive risk man- agement strategy, it is not within the scope of this paper. Nevertheless, it is intrinsically related to the activity of identifying, calculating and evalu- ating the degree of potential damage, loss or other unfavorable outcome. Known Unknowns: Awareness of Gaps in Knowledge This category represents risks that are known: risks of which one is aware. However, despite the awareness of the existence of a risk, what remains unknown is the extent of the potential damage that can result from it. Simply put, the organization does not know how to quantify or calculate the extent of the potential damage that could result from an unfavorable outcome. An interesting example of a known unknown risk, and one that is very germane to information systems-ori- ented discussions, is zero balance accounting (ZBA).7 Prior to computer software that implemented ZBA, first created by Marshall and Isley (M&I), the majority of corporations did not have an automated accounting system designed to link and capture disparate data, fuse them into a consoli- dation account and perform granular accounting of their intraday cash and disbursement obliga- tions. Corporations did not have a good way to determine how much cash they needed to cover both their end-of-day (EOD) disbursements and overnight investment options. If a corporation didn’t have enough cash buffer, there would always be the risk and embar- rassment of overdrafts, with resulting interest penalties of 1/360th of the prevailing overnight Federal Funds Rate of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY).8 The M&I software accurately tracked corporate banks’ commercial clients’ immediate needs for overnight cash. It supported demand deposit accounting and offered a solution that eliminated the risks in disbursement and accounting regu- larities. The crux of this example is that although the problem was understood, there was no known solution to eliminate the risks prior to the M&I software package with its ZBA software module. Unknown Unknowns: The Epitome of Risk The last of the three risk categories is called unknownunknowns.Thiscategoryrepresentsrisks about whose existence an organization or enter- prise is not even aware. As Rumsfeld commented in his famous “unknown unknowns” speech, “How do you prepare for the unexpected?” His rhetorical question is all-encompassing: Of course the goal of risk management in any arena is to prepare for the unexpected. Notwith- standing that, one could ask the more focused questions: “How do you identify or discover that which is unknown? And, how can you prepare for something that you don’t even know exists?” This conundrum represents the challenge of identify- ing risks related to any organization or enterprise. In the 1980s, the then JP Morgan Bank of New York had 26 different general ledger systems in opera- tion at the same time. Naturally, the existence of these IS/IT systems had intrinsic risk associated with them — as does every other operation and computing system. The “unknown unknown,” however, was that no one in management, audit or compliance in the entire corporation knew exactly how the 26 general ledger systems and their divergent supporting 1,000-plus legacy systems mapped or how they were used in the daily opera- tion of the bank.9 Because of this situation, the entire bank enterprise was at risk. In modern accounting, general ledger software acts as a central repository holding formal permanent records for the double-entry control of the accounting data. Typically, data is trans- ferred from modules such as accounts payable, accounts receivable, cash management, fixed assets, property, plant and equipment (PP&E) and purchasing.10 “How can you prepare for something that you don’t even know exists?” This conundrum represents the challenge of identifying risks related to any organization or enterprise.
  • 5. cognizant 20-20 insights 5 In the case of JP Morgan Bank, it has historically suffered consistent financial penalties imposed by both the U.S. federal government and the UK government for inaccurate and incomplete accounting and compliance violations. The bank’s ongoing inability to resolve accounting irregulari- ties was a direct result of its failure to coordinate the undocumented 1,000-plus legacy systems and their intrinsic undocumented financial risks. For example, in spring 2013, JP Morgan Chase Bank was fined $1.65 billion on receivables of $100 billion that it made in Wales in the UK stock market. And in spring/summer 2013, JP Morgan Chase Bank paid the $1.65 billion in penalties.9 An interesting twist to the JP Morgan Chase Bank example is that the bank’s executive management perceived the $1.65 billion penalty as merely a “wheat tax,” or a “cost of doing business.” And after the financial penalties were levied and paid, Jamie Dimon, Chairman of the Board (COB) of JP Morgan Chase Bank, decided not to make capital investments to remediate the IS/IT, process and work flow deficiencies to fix the problem because it was cheaper to pay the penalties than to address the problem. The $1.65 billion penalty represented a 1.67% tax, or merely a cost of doing business.9 This example highlights the risk of the unknown — the risk of not knowing the unknown. Unlike the Ford Pinto example where the risk was known at the outset and the company could indeed make a realistic assessment of the extent of the financial loss from unfavorable outcomes, in the JP Morgan Chase Bank case the risk was not known because the cause of the risk was never identified. Therefore, the extent of the potential damage and resulting financial loss could not be identified, monitored, captured, evaluated, assessed or quantified. But the two examples also share one similar- ity. Just as Ford’s decision not to remediate the defective gas tank design was a policy decision, so too was JP Morgan Chase Bank’s opting not to fix the problems within its enterprise a cost- avoidance-motivated policy decision. One can conclude, however, that JP Morgan Chase Bank was fortunate that the damage incurred was “acceptable.” This outcome will not always be the case. In fact, it would be prudent for any organi- zation to assume that the unfavorable outcome they experience will not be “acceptable.” The JP Morgan Chase Bank case exemplifies the notion that no organization can possibly assess the potential damage asso- ciated with a risk if it can’t even identify the existence of the risk. Herein lies the reason that, arguably, unknown unknowns is the most risky category. By risky we mean that either the likelihood of the unfavor- able outcome or its impact is greater. This idea can be expressed more formally using the following formula: Risk = probability of risk occurring x impact of risk occurring Monte Carlo theory and Black Swan theory are used in risk management to identify various scenarios and outcomes.11 An inescapable step in the process of risk management is the need to first identify the jeopardy.One cannot assign, calculate or estimate the probability of an outcome if one can’t identify the risk that could cause that unfa- vorable outcome. Consequently, the greatest risk always comes from the unknown. Identifying, Comprehending and Addressing Risk To underscore the importance of comprehen- sively identifying all risks, think of the reality that simply because one cannot identify the existence of a real risk does not mean that the risk is not present. Moreover, every activity or endeavor has a unique set of individual intrinsic risks, which makes consideration of risk an imperative for any enterprise. This section focuses on identification and comprehension of unknown risks. Even for the first two categories of risk presented above, creating a solution to reduce the prob- ability of unfavorable outcomes is a distinctly different activity than identifying the associated risk. Certainly for any company or enterprise, designing a solution is more often than not a nontrivial undertaking that probably involves many departments including strategic planning, project and program management, IS/IT depart- ments, QA/QC, actuaries, statisticians, operations research (OR) and so forth.12 The JP Morgan Chase Bank case exemplifies the notion that no organization can possibly assess the potential damage associated with a risk if it can’t even identify the existence of the risk.
  • 6. cognizant 20-20 insights 6 RISK CHANG E MGMT RISK BI RISK MARKE T RISK SALES RISK OPERA TIONS RISK ANALY TICS RISK DATA RISK JIT SUPPLY CHAIN RISK OTHER BUSINE SS RISK Change Management Other Business Risk Analytics Risk Data Risk JIT Supply Chain Risk Operations Risk Sales Risk Market Risk BI Risk RISK Figure 3 Risk Categories: A Comprehensive Look Discovery Phase To reduce the probability of unfavorable outcomes occurring, one must identify risks, understand and document them and make plans to eliminate unfavorable outcomes or mitigate their effects. In the first two categories of risk, the risks are known even if not documented. In the known knowns category, the risks are known explicitly. In the known unknowns category, too, the risks are known although the solution to eliminate or mitigate the effects of unfavorable outcomes is not known and has yet to be developed. However, in the unknown unknowns category, neither the risk nor the solution is known. And this category is the one that needs the most attention in any organization. Perhaps unfortunately, there is no formula or esoteric theory that explains how to uncover unknown unknown risks. But the process is rela- tively straightforward, albeit it requires a method- ical effort of a certain kind. Before getting into that method, it helps to first analyze the problem in more depth. In many orga- nizations, individuals know their job functions, even if they are not formally documented. However, there might be only a few people who understand an organization’s entire enterprise- wide processes or work flows from the top down, particularly in large organizations. This creates the phenomenon within an organization of isolated, undocumented silos, also known as “archipelagos” of information and knowledge.13, 14 Returning to the JP Morgan Chase Bank example, very few people in the company definitively knew that there existed 26 general ledger applications and 1,000+ undocumented legacy systems and applications in use. Each department knew of the existence of the application in its specific purview. But personnel didn’t seem to think about “what happens to our data when we send it along down- stream” to another department or entity within the larger organization. No one clearly understood the totality of the entire enterprise-wide data and work flows. It was painfully clear that no one at JP Morgan Chase truly understood the ramifica- tions of the legacy enterprise-wide process, work flows and their costly intrinsic financial risks to the profitability of the enterprise. The discovery of the existence of the 26 general ledger applications occurred during an audit. However, the “audit” was a hybrid or combina- tion operation that was part of a larger program of modernization. In the end, it was the inquisi- tive nature of one individual who asked many questions about the company’s operations that led to the discovery of the risk related to the multiple general ledgers.9
  • 7. cognizant 20-20 insights 7 The only viable approach to discover the unknown unknowns might be a very comprehensive ques- tion-and-answer (Q&A) process whose purpose is to identify, discover, document and explain an enterprise’s operations. Often, the “experts” are not the suitable individu- als for this work. While the interviewer should be someone with knowledge of the organization’s domain, he or she should be an outsider not privy to details of the operation. This individual should ask questions whose answer appears obvious to the subject matter experts (SMEs). The strategic nature of questions should address enterprise-wide concerns such as inter- and intra-departmental work flows, work breakdown structures (WBS), data flow diagrams (DFDs), quality control rates, error rates, variance analysis (VA), trend analysis, historical statistical records, just-in-time (JIT) inventory control, JIT green supply chains, asset management, warehousing, outsourcing work functions, federal and state regulatory financial penalties, federal, state, and city taxes actually paid and enterprise processes, among other categories. A suitable candidate for this role would be an enterprise architect who can freely pose questions that address both business analysis as well as technical concerns. The questions should focus on all aspects of known and unknown risks. For example, one should ask “what happens if there is a discrepancy in general ledger applica- tion A?” The Q&A sessions should involve diversi- fied SMEs knowledgeable about the enterprise’s entire operation. The enterprise architect should be the catalyst who precipitates the fallout of information that was previously assumed or known implicitly by the silos but was unbeknownst to all. The architect is a facilitator, the ombudsman, the honest broker who elicits the discovery of information that cuts across the stove pipes, domains, perspectives and viewpoints of the enterprise. Risk Management Yields Profitability Corporations see risk management, audit and compliance as an unnecessary operating expense. But in reality, reduction of any kind of loss through risk management leads to positive bottom-line profits. Risk leads to unfavorable outcomes and loss, which enterprises usually valuate in financial terms. Obviously, reducing risk reduces financial loss, which saves money and positively impacts the bottom line. Cost-Benefit Analysis, GAP Analysis, Variance Analysis, Cost Avoidance For known risks whose loss is quantifiable, it is easy enough to predict savings that result from their elimination. On the other hand, how does one quantify loss — or savings — if one cannot even define or identify the risk in the unknown unknowns category? The loss from unknown risk is very real. To reiterate, just because the risk is not known does not mean it does not exist. For example, in the case of JP Morgan Chase Bank’s 26 general ledger systems, obviously the bank incurred a real cost associated with operating these systems. But if the systems were not listed and constantly tracked on an account- ing ledger, no one could quantify the operating costs or their financial losses and compliance-incurred regu- latory penalties. Perhaps the corporation’s liabili- ties balanced, but it was probably impossible to correlate an amount with the cost of the systems. Therefore, how could the bank know how to reduce risk, in this case financial risk that resulted from extraneous overhead, if the bank could not even identify the existence of it? If the bank could identify the redundancy in its general ledger systems, and if it chose to eliminate it, it could then accurately report reduction in overhead — a new bottom-line profit. Additionally, it’s likely that it would also reduce the probability of accounting discrepancies and other kinds of unfavorable outcomes in daily operations.15 In this way, identifying unknown unknowns leads to increased profit. That profit is not from an already identified loss. It comes from the identi- fication of an unknown loss. The only viable approach to discover the unknown unknowns might be a very comprehensive question-and-answer (Q&A) process whose purpose is to identify, discover, document and explain an enterprise’s operations.
  • 8. cognizant 20-20 insights 8 Looking Ahead Risk management is a broad topic with many facets. But perhaps the most important aspect of risk management is the need to identify and document the risks and, ultimately, to evaluate the extent of financial damages directly resulting from an unfavorable risk-related outcome. Among the three categories of risk, assessing the potential for loss or harm from unknown risks is the most important to address. Risk manage- ment is the discipline of eliminating, reducing or mitigating the deleterious effects that occur as a result of the occurrence of unfavorable outcomes. One cannot do this if one cannot first fully identify the risks. A compelling method for uncovering the unknown risks that an enterprise faces is to use a strategic Q&A interview process. Detailed Q&A sessions between facilitators and business experts can elucidate critical pieces of informa- tion about an organization’s operations. It might even be necessary to include pedantic questions to precipitate the discovery of information that some might consider obvious. But what might be implicit knowledge to some could be unknown to others. The right information must be put in the right hands — those that need to address risk in an organization. Successfully identifying unknown risks will lead to profit from newly identified losses that were pre- viously not even known and therefore impossible to recoup. Footnotes 1 Funk and Wagnall’s Standard College Dictionary, The Reader’s Digest Association, 1966, Library of Congress catalog no. 66-21606. 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk. 3 Donald Rumsfeld, Known and Unknown: A Personal Memoir, Penguin Group USA, February 2011, ISBN-13: 9781595230676. 4 Project Risk Management Community of Practice Web site forum article, http://risk.vc.pmi.org/Public/ Community/Discussions/tabid/972/aft/2170/Default.aspx. 5 Mark Dowie, “Pinto Madness,” Mother Jones Journal, September/October 1977 issue. 6 Ralph Nader, Unsafe at Any Speed: The Designed-In Dangers of the American Automobile, Knightsbridge Publishing Company, Massachusetts, c1991, ISBN-13: 978-1561290505. 7 Investor Glossary Web site, “Zero Balance Accounting,” http://www.investorglossary.com/zba.htm. 8 Gerard LaTournernie, M.A., M.B.A, “Risk in the U.S. Financial Industry,” February 2013, http://wexfordsys- temsllc.com. (The paper can be requested from the site.) 9 Gerard LaTournerie, M.A., M.B.A., “The Morgan Bank General Ledger Audit,” personal interview, October 2012. 10 Investopedia web site, “General Ledger” article, http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/generalledger.asp. 11 Dr. Ing. Tilo Nemuth, “Practical Use of Monte Carlo Simulation for Risk Management within the Internation- al Construction Industry,” Grauber, Schmidt and Proske: Proceedings of the 6th International Probabilistic Workshop, Darmstadt 2008. 12 Gerard LaTournerie, M.A., M.B.A., “Risk Management in International Compliance,” March 2010, http://wexfordsystemsllc.com. (The paper can be requested from the site.). 13 F. Warren McFarlan, James L. McKenney, and Philip Pyburn, “The information archipelago — plotting a course,” Harvard Business Review 61, no. 1: 145-156, 1983. 14 Oded Weiss, “Global Investment Banking: Challenges Surrounding the Design of Information Systems for the 21st Century,” Master’s thesis, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998. 15 Gerard LaTournerie, M.A., M.B.A., “Creation of the Angolan Stock Exchange,” Research for Computer Management Group, c. 2011-2013.
  • 9. About Cognizant Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) is a leading provider of information technology, consulting, and business process out- sourcing services, dedicated to helping the world’s leading companies build stronger businesses. Headquartered in Teaneck, New Jersey (U.S.), Cognizant combines a passion for client satisfaction, technology innovation, deep industry and business process expertise, and a global, collaborative workforce that embodies the future of work. With over 50 delivery centers worldwide and approximately 171,400 employees as of December 31, 2013, Cognizant is a member of the NASDAQ-100, the S&P 500, the Forbes Global 2000, and the Fortune 500 and is ranked among the top performing and fastest growing companies in the world. Visit us online at www.cognizant.com or follow us on Twitter: Cognizant. World Headquarters 500 Frank W. Burr Blvd. Teaneck, NJ 07666 USA Phone: +1 201 801 0233 Fax: +1 201 801 0243 Toll Free: +1 888 937 3277 Email: inquiry@cognizant.com European Headquarters 1 Kingdom Street Paddington Central London W2 6BD Phone: +44 (0) 20 7297 7600 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7121 0102 Email: infouk@cognizant.com India Operations Headquarters #5/535, Old Mahabalipuram Road Okkiyam Pettai, Thoraipakkam Chennai, 600 096 India Phone: +91 (0) 44 4209 6000 Fax: +91 (0) 44 4209 6060 Email: inquiryindia@cognizant.com ­­Š Copyright 2014, Cognizant. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the express written permission from Cognizant. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. All other trademarks mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners. About the Author Vartan Piroumian is an Enterprise Architect with Cognizant Technology Solutions. He started his career as a software engineer, moving into software architecture and then enterprise architecture. He has a bachelor’s degree in computer science, which he has studied at MIT and the University of California, Irvine. Vartan has authored two books on Java technology, “Java GUI Development” and “J2ME Wireless Platform Programming,” and several journal articles on computer science and information technology. He is currently working on a book on risk management. Vartan can be reached at Vartan.Piroumian@ cognizant.com.