The document discusses the reasons why projects often miss deadlines, focusing on the 'bias of convergence' where the average time and resources lead to miscalculations of reaching targets. It suggests that instead of adding clearances for time and resources, they should be used to compensate for deviations, planning to achieve goals earlier to create a buffer. Ultimately, it highlights that around 70% of projects are delayed, indicating that better planning and understanding of variability is crucial for success.

1. Why projects don’t fulfill
deadlines?
And how we can change this!
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2. What could happens?
• If the average to get to your job is one hour and you
always leave your house just one hour before?
• If the average fuel consumption from your car is 10
km / liter and your job is 40 km away from your
house, then you supplies it with exactly 4 liters?
1. For these questions there are just one answer:
Sometimes you‘ll reach, sometimes you‘ll delay!
2. But which is the probability of you‘ll reach deadline?
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3. You‘ll can be victim of the Bias of
Convergence.
• Average means that there are higher values ​and
also lower values​​, and maybe not even there the
average value!
– So, sometimes it took more than one hour to arrive at job.
• Mathematically we would consider that there is a
50% chance to not be late.
• But this isn‘t the correct answer for the second
question.
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4. The right answer is 25%!
–
Delays
>
real
=
0
1
> real =
Estimated
productivity
<
real
=
0
Delay
Delay
< real =1
Estimated duration
1
Delay
Reach
Deadline
are mathematically expected!
– Deviations from targets are due to Parkinson's
Law.
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5. And what does this have to do with
projects?
•
•
•
•
All!
There is nothing that doesn‘t have variations.
I gave a name to this: “Bias of Convergence”.
Even trying our best to meet the deadlines, we
almost always fail.
• If you're thinking that no one ever goes to work
investing in the mean time and with minimum
fuel, maybe you're right, but in projects it
works so.
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6. How are we trying to change that, and
why we're not succeeding?
• We are trying of two ways:
– We add time clearances.
– We add clearance of resources.
• Then, what is wrong?
– The targets are the upper limit to be reached.
– And we planned them as if they were the exact points to
be reached.
– But we shouldn‘t do that, because, in the real life, points
don‘t exist.
• And we know something about target‘s
centers…
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7. Sometimes we‘ll reach, sometimes
won‘t!
• You can think: we had increased clearances of time and
resources.
• But if you focus just on the points to be reached, time
and resources keep being affected by variability.
• Then you‘ll use all time and all resources and..
• Sometimes you‘ll reach, sometimes won‘t.
• This is bias of convergence.
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8. How we can change this?
• Clearances should be used to compensate
deviations, not to increase time or resources.
• We must planning to reach goals earlier, then we will
have a buffer to use if necessary.
• We should plan to meet all goals with clearance, so
when something don‘t occur, we will have some
additional job done to compensate.
• We should consider the clearances just to put the
project back within its deadline.
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9. Yep, the solution is counterintuitive.
• You must be thinking that adding clearances will
derail the project.
• I don‘t think so!
• About 70% of projects end up late.
• You know, this is better than our initial probability!
• That‘s what can derail a project.
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10. The source.
• These slides are based on my two books:
– Gestão por Modelagem Vetorial: Os segredos da curva S
(Management by Vectorial Modeling: The S curve secrets).
– Viés de Convergência: Desvendando a causa raiz dos
atrasos (Bias of Convergence: Unraveling the root cause of the
delays).
Both in portuguese.
• To contact: roberto@looplearn.com
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