The document discusses the challenges and errors in making predictions about future technologies, highlighting examples of past failures from notable figures and events. It emphasizes the need to challenge assumptions, recognize changing needs, and avoid premature evaluations when forecasting. Strategies for improving predictions include identifying constraints and creatively imagining solutions without limitations.

1. Why don’t we get the future right?Tom Stewart, System Concepts

2. Billy Connolly quotes“there are two seasons in Scotland: June and Winter”“there is no such thing as ‘bad’ weather, just the wrong clothes”so maybe“there is no such thing as bad predictions, just how we interpret them”

3. The telephone took off so rapidly that a statistician at Bell Telephone System forecasted that at the then current rate of increase, every woman in the United States would have to become a telephone operator!Emma McNutt 1878,

4. AlmonStrowger

5. No, there are bad predictionsEdison’s Light Bulb- “good enough for our transatlantic friends ... but unworthy of the attention of practical or scientific men.” British Parliamentary Committee, 1878. “The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878. “Very interesting Whittle, my boy, but it will never work.” Cambridge Aeronautics Professor, when shown Frank Whittle's plan for the jet engine.

6. Why our predictions failwe overlook the obvioustechnology changes, people don’tmetaphors are dangerousform and function have fallen out.

7. Star Trek was unrealistic

10. Technology changes – people don’t“...[there] has been great disorder in …Manchester …windows broken yearly and spoiled by lewd and disordered persons …playing … football in the streets”The problem in Manchester with the banned activity of “ffotebale” in 1608.

11. “people need holes not drills”

12. Or do theyvisual slide me with drillswants are not the same as needs and do changebut I want drills!

13. Metaphors are dangerous

14. Telegraph ipad edition

15. Form and function have fallen out

16. Smaller is not always betterRIDE INRIDE ONCARRYTWO HANDONE HANDONIN

17. the power of negative thinking

18. identify constraints & show stoppers

19. many suffer from...“hardening of the categories”

20. pretend you have Super Powers imagine what you would do if the constraints were lifted – remember the brick

21. then, evaluate, but…... avoid Premature Evaluation!

22. RIPE approach to the next big thingResearch – put in the hard workIdentify constraints – know the boxPretend you have superpowers to challenge assumptions and explore optionsEvaluate – but not too early

23. Thank You!