This document outlines a methodology for studying why there are no democracies in Central Asia. It examines dimensions like development, religion, and patronage networks using indicators and data sources. The author develops an empirical basis looking at factors like liberal democracy, human development index, resource rents, religious groups, and power networks over time. The main findings are that the status quo is consolidated through resources, legitimation, and religious groups. In concluding remarks, the author suggests future areas of study and questions whether democratic transition is possible given country-specific trajectories and the influence of patronage and development.

1. Why Are There No Democracies in Central Asia?
A Methodological Proposal
Francesco Piccinelli Casagrande
Relatore: Luca Verzichelli - Controrelatore: Maurizio Cotta

2. Purposes of This Work
• To study an area which is becoming important on the global scene
• To make a small Ns study with mixed methods and data-driven techniques
• To develop a sensible methodology to study remote areas with limited data
• To find sensible generalizations on post-soviet and hybrid regimes

3. Dimensions, Indicators and Sources
• Development
- Human Development Index
- Resource Rents
• Religion
- v2clrelig_osp
• Patronage
- v2pepwrsoc_osp
• Development
- Wang, et. al (2015)
- Louong & Weinthal (2010)
• Religion
- Khalid (2014)
• Patronage
- Hale (2015)
- Collins (2006)
Quantitaive & Data driven Literature for Triangulation

4. GovernmentResource Rents Power Networks HDI
Consolidation of the status quo
Religious Groups
resources
legitimation
Main Findings

5. 1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1991
19921993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 2014
2015
2000
2001 2002
2003 2004
2005
2006 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.6 0.7 0.8
HDI
v2x_libdem
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Resource_Rents 10 20
v2x_libdem, HDI and Resource Rents
Empirical Basis - I

6. v2clrelig
Empirical Basis - II

7. v2pepwrsoc
Empirical Basis - III

8. Concluding Remarks
• Future Developments
- Study of Legislations and parties
- The role of women
- The role of technology
- Methodological suggestions
• What about these countries?
- Trajectories are country-specific
- Patronage matters
- Development matters
- Is there any democratic transition?

9. Thank You
Francesco Piccinelli Casagrande
LicenseLicense CC BY-NC 4.0CC BY-NC 4.0