What is next for the Provinces – Canada.pptx

WHAT IS
NEXT FOR
THE
PROVINCES
– CANADA
Presenter Name: Paul Young CPA CGA
April 17, 2022

PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

AGENDA
• Economic Trends
• Manufacturing
• Mining
• Oil
• Commodity Prices
• Innovation / Productivity
• Circular and Green Economy
• Agriculture and Farming
• Metal fabrication
• Construction
• Housing
• Provincial Trade Barriers
• Education
• Healthcare
• Daycare / Childcare
• Post-Secondary Education
• New Governance Model
• Public Safety
• UBI
• Water Management
• Forestry Management
• Urban Planning
• Transportation
• Local Government
• Food Security
• Inflation
PRESENTATION TITLE 2/11/20XX 3

BANK OF CANADA / MONETARY
POLICIES • There are issues with GDP: a) Productivity b) FDI
outflow c) Lack of innovation d) Higher
Commodities e) government deficits and taxes
• About 40% of the job vacancies are with jobs that
pay less than the average wage
• Size of household debt continues to be an issue
• Lack of affordable housing options
• Global Trade and protectionism
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/bmo-
7-reasons-to-be-exciting-about-the-canadian-economy
My concerns with the BOC saying inflation dropping from 5.3% in 2022 to 2018 is not realistic and here is why:
• Liberals plan hikes to carbon tax - https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/federal-carbon-tax-to-increase-to-170-per-tonne-
by-2030-as-liberals-unveil-new-climate-plan
• Critical metals have risk due to supply and refinement capacity issues. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-
News/America-Desperately-Needs-To-Scale-Up-Battery-Metal-Production.html
• Huge capital needs to be spent on areas like the electrical grid and plug-in stations (electrical vehicle adoption)
• Housing issues will continue to plague the cost of housing – https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-and-
homelessness-canada-and-the-world-budget-2022-pptx
• Automation will also play a key role with organizations managing their costs -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-automation
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/preliminary-cost-of-living-canada-february-2022pptx

ECONOMIC TRENDS
BNS
_provincial_outlook_2022-04-14.pdf

ECONOMIC TRENDS
BNS

KEY METRICS

MANUFACTURING SALES
Source – Stats Canada

MINING OUTPUT
Source – Stats Canada
Canadian Mineral
Production.pdf

OIL OUTPUT

COMMODITY PRICES

INNOVATION AND PRODUCTIVITY
The SuperClusters are now called Global Innovation Clusters & they will receive $750M in extended funding over six
years.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/federal-budget-released-manufacturing-investments-missing-
cleantech-well-represented/
These same superclusters never created the jobs and GDP growth! @FP_Champagne
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/policy-review-innovation-and-scientific-research-rd-canada

CIRCULAR AND GREEN ECONOMY
I have for over 16 years support moving to circular and green economy as part of protecting the
environment while growing the economy in a sustainable and inclusive way that benefits everyone.
The problem for the past few years is that various governments around the world continue to throw
money at the symptoms through providing direct grants and subsidies to green and clean companies.
There has been little done to address areas like development of natural resources in a sustainable way or
introducing policies that are driving up inflation as government are to focus on taxing and overregulating
the fossil fuel industry.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/mitigation-the-impact-of-climate-change-while-
growing-the-green-and-circular-economy-in-a-sustainable-way-pptx

AGRICULTURE AND FARMING
All levels of government need to work together to ease fear around food security
Liberals continue to push their climate change policies at all costs. Farmers are seeing higher input costs that are
impacting their margins
More needs to be done to address the rural housing crisis.
More needs to be done to protect vital farmland
Vertical farming solutions need to be push as part of food security
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/agriculture-equipment-sector-analysis-and-commentary-ag-
pricespptx-251578643

METAL FABRICATION
There are many challenges facing the metal fabrication sector:
1. Skills gaps and labor shortages
2. Adoption of more automation
3. High input costs
4. Targeted R&D tax credit programs to help develop new products
5. Access to raw materials (localized)
Blog – Metal Fabrication – What is next - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/metal-fabrication-sector-
analysis-and-commentarypptx

CONSTRUCTION
Summary:
Construction spending during February 2022 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,704.4 billion, 0.5
percent (±0.7 percent)* above the revised January estimate of $1,695.5 billion. The February figure is 11.2 percent (±1.2
percent) above the February 2021 estimate of $1,533.3 billion. During the first two months of this year, construction
spending amounted to $237.8 billion, 10.4 percent (±1.0 percent) above the $215.4 billion for the same period in 2021.
Source - https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/us-construction-spending-up-05-percent-in-february-
1239660.htm or https://goldrushcam.com/sierrasuntimes/index.php/real-estate/37772-national-monthly-construction-
spending-for-february-2022-rises-11-year-over-year or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/infrastructure-and-
construction-spending-usa-and-the-world-february-2022pptx
USA and Canada continue to struggle with funding of infrastructure.

IT MARKET
Quantifying and Categorizing Global Technological Acceleration
Significantly moving the needle in terms of achieving globally significant technological acceleration would be the number of doublings
beyond the baseline.
Level 1 (one global doubling) : $440 trillion PPP GDP by 2045 or $880 trillion by 2070 or $1760 trillion by 2095.
Level 2 acceleration (two doublings) $880 trillion by 2045, $1760 trillion by 2070 or $3520 trillion by 2095.
Level 3 acceleration (three doublings) $1760 trillion by 2045, $3520 trillion by 2070 or $7040 trillion by 2095.
Etc…
Being on track for Level 1 would be increasing the global GDP growth rate by 3% and forecasts showing this to be sustained for 25 or
more years.
more years.
more years.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/03/quantifying-globally-significant-technological-
acceleration.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfutur
e%29
Rapid pace of both creation and adoption of technology will continue to accelerate post-covid19 world. Both the public and private
sectors will continue to look at ways to streamline their operations as part of serving their various customer bases. Here is my look at the
economy:
Global Economy - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-global-economy-march-2021
Re-Shoring Supply Chain - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reshore-supply-chain-management-244371640
Circular Economy - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-maximized-the-circular-economy-244067365

RETAIL SECTOR
Retail sector continues to face many challenges:
• Consumer goods prices
• Access to supply
• Adoption of AR and VR
• Leverage eCommerce more as part of expanding sales
• Shrinking their store retail space
• Adopting other innovation
• Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sales-and-consumer-spending-canada-january-2022
•

SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE BUSINESSES
https://twitter.com/StevenDelDuca/status/1502328429861130241
https://twitter.com/liberal_party/status/1513872695498362882
How did your so-called carbon pricing or new labor laws help small businesses? They did not! You sure like
to talk out of the corner of your mouth! https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/massive-
labour-shortages-are-forcing-small-businesses-to-reduce-operations-and-curtail-hours-277360/
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/dawn-of-a-new-era-for-smallto-medium-size-public-and-private-
sectors-entities-250930548 or https://www.buildandevolve.com/blog/2017/6/14/diluting-your-dollar-
premiere-wynnes-desperate-reach-win-re-election

POWER GENERATION
Canada generates over 80% of its electricity from clean sources.
Canada generates about 11% of its power needs from Natural Gas. Canada’s clean electrical grid is one
the best in the G20.
Raw material costs continue to plague the green energy sector.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/electricity-analysis-and-commentary-january-2022pptx

HOUSING
Source – ScotiaBank 2/11/20XX 21
housing_note_2022-0
1-12.pdf

HOUSING
AFFORDABILITY
Source – Scotitabank
housing-affordability.
pdf

HOUSING
AFFORDABILITY
Source – Scotitabank
economic-news-teran
et.pdf

HOUSING
Source – Scotiabank
HNF_2022-03-15.pdf

HOUSING
HNF_2022-03-15.pdf

TRADE BARRIERS
insightsandviews_202
2-03-03.pdf

TRADE BARRIERS
2-03-03.pdf

EDUCATIONAL
SPENDING

EMPLOYMENT
How Best to Support Current and Future Labor Markets through better Post-Secondary and Immigration Programs -
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-best-support-current-future-labor-markets-through-paul-young/?published=t

HEALTHCARE SPENDING

HEALTHCARE DELIVERY MODEL
You do realize how expensive these programs are right?
You do realize that many Cdns have private insurance,
right? The focus should be the consolidation of
different programs.
Pharmacare -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-and-
drug-costs-pharmacare-how-to-reform-drug-policy
Healthcare crisis -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-does-
the-world-reform-healthcare-250982200
Dental https://www.smilecaredental.ca/blog/ohip-
dental-coverage-free-dental-care-ontario-2021
Fiscal -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-
management-public-sector-canada

DAYCARE / CHILDCARE
PQ model for daycare has issues. Daycare is important as part supporting the workforce. The policies need to be more
balanced between tax credits and direct government funding. People should have choices on how best to managed their
daycare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/daycare-and-child-care-funding-canada-october-2021
Additional Links:
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/premier-doug-ford-era-for-ontario (Ford Era) vs Wynne/McGuinty era -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/kathleen-wynne-liberals-vs-doug-ford-ontario-pcs-march-2018 or
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/12/03/liberals-under-pressure-to-fix-ontarios-child-protection-
system.html
https://www.childcareontario.org/ontario_must_get_serious_about_child_care_following_auditor_general_s_report_ocbc
c

POST-SECONDARY
https://www-theglobeandmail-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/canada/article-colleges-
universities-expecting-large-financial-losses-from-drop-in/
I have written many blogs on education including the following areas:
1. Revamping their curriculum to better align with the jobs of today and tomorrow
2. All colleges and universities should be incubation zones including working with all levels of government and
private sector
3. More investment in skills trades
4. Canada has a job quality issue. All levels of government need to focus on getting goods to market
5. Universities and colleges need to continue to move to an online model as part of supporting international and
domestic students.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-postsecondary-education-canada-september-2019-173339789 or
https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/canadian-education-anywhere-how-our-universities-can-go-global-
online/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=salesforce&utm_campaign=special+report

PUBLIC SAFETY
Hate crimes in 2020 for Canada are up 37% as compared to 2019.
Rising OPP costs have led to concerns by many local governments
Gun crimes continue to be an issue in Canada
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/public-safety-crime-canada-and-the-world-251390205

NEW GOVERNANCE
MODEL
Summary:
I have written many presentations and blogs over the years on transforming the public sector. The public sector needs
to reform its model including stronger crisis and risk management planning and analysis, creating new a compliance
group that ensure all oversight agencies are free from partisan policies, governments need to learn to live within its
means, all program spending should undertake a program review, taxation focus should be on tax fairness, policies
should address issues like wage reform or pension reform or other reforms.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-fix-the-governance-model-for-government-public-
sectorpptx

GUARANTEE INCOME
(UBI)
Summary:
I support review of all programs to ensure they are effective in terms of improving outcomes. More oversight needs to be done
on all social welfare programs to ensure they are helping people but also supporting the growing of the economy in a
sustainable way.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/should-canada-moved-forward-with-basic-income
1. EI and its effectiveness - https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/01/unemployment-insurance-and-the-failure-to-reform.html
2. Failures of UBI - https://troymedia.com/politicslaw/universal-basic-income-has-been-tested-and-failed/#.YchnUVlOlPY
3. Failures of all levels of government to address the skills gap - https://www.randstad.ca/best-jobs/top-15-jobs/
4. Housing costs - https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/navigating-the-housing-crisis-with-poverty-wages
5. Stifling of FDI - https://www.cpacanada.ca/en/public-interest/public-policy-government-relations/policy-advocacy/cpa-
canada-tax-review-initiative/taxes-and-canadians/stifling-foreign-investment-holding-canada-back
6. Food costs - https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/here-s-how-much-more-canadians-can-expect-to-pay-for-food-in-2022-
1.5699941
7. @JonathanWNV @cafreeland @JustinTrudeau @s_guilbeault Congrats on moving the Cdn economy to your
govt & real estate-driven economy. The NR growth should be higher, but your policies have ensured that won't be
the case! https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-canada-analysis-and-commentary-october-2021
8. Oil importance - https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-oil-gas-workers-support/
9. Child benefit - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/does-the-canada-child-benefit-actually-reduce-child-poverty
10. Tax and spend policies - https://www.ey.com/en_pl/government-public-sector/six-ways-that-governments-can-drive-the-
green-transition

WATER MANAGEMENT
Blog - How to better protect water supply through Innovation and better Urban Planning
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-21/water-s-soul-statue-is-a-call-for-global-climate-
action?utm_content=climate&utm_campaign=socialflow-
organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-climate
Water has been an issue for decades. All you have to do is look at US southwest to see how population growth
outpace water supply - https://www.npr.org/2021/06/26/1010521100/population-is-booming-in-the-west-
but-theres-not-enough-water-to-keep-up-with-it
Desalination technology has also improved over the years - https://www.inceptivemind.com/worlds-first-
wave-driven-desalination-system-wave2o/21521/
Eliminating the dumping of raw sewage into waterways https://tnc.news/2021/06/24/liberals-kill-bill-that-
would-ban-dumping-raw-sewage-into-canadian-waters/
Water- https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/water-management-water-crisis-world-october-2021

FORESTRY
MANAGEMENT
Summary:
Lumber production in Canada is still down 10% since Sept/19 and about 25% since Oct/15
Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world
Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 20218. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been
planted.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-forestry-sector-january-2022pptx

URBAN PLANNING
Summary:
There needs to be more effective strategy when it comes to urban planning including climate change mitigation, affordable
housing, traffic congestion, supply chain disruption, green transit solution, optimization of transits, etc.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-do-you-best-support-urban-planning-rural-vs-urban
Liberals through the past 6+ years have always thrown either money at the symptoms or came up with policies that has
been effective to address issues with urban planning.
There seems to be a land grab by the Liberals - https://liberal.ca/housing/give-cities-the-tools-to-speed-up-housing-
construction/ Many Liberals have REIT so you can bet they are licking their chops on this policy
Here is my work on urban planning:
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-do-you-best-support-urban-planning-rural-vs-urban

TRANSIT
Blog – What is happening with Transit across the Globe
Transit across the globe continues to face many challenges including lower ridership as compared to pre-Covid
Higher fuel costs are also causing issues with operation costs
Cities need to do a better job of optimization of their transit systems
There are lessons to be learned from LRT systems in Ottawa and Pittsburgh -
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/pittsburgh-light-rail-t-the-most-useless-all-electric-rail-network-in-america-
184378.html or Ottawa - https://www.autoevolution.com/news/pittsburgh-light-rail-t-the-most-useless-all-electric-rail-
network-in-america-184378.html
The new hybrid work model is causing many issues with downtown cores of many cities around the globe
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-is-transit-doing-in-canada-and-around-the-world-january-2022

LOCAL GOVERNMENT
https://twitter.com/StevenDelDuca/status/1502047356908453891
You did not do that in the past, right?
a) Broken arbitration model
b) OPP costing model
c) Urban planning
d) Transit optimization
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-fix-the-goverance-model-for-the-public-sector-government-
249941842

FOOD SECURITY
Summary:
Consumer price inflation hit a new 40 year high and will soon get close to 9% as businesses' surging commodity and
labour costs get passed onto consumers. The Russia/Ukraine situation creates uncertainty, but the US economy has
strong momentum and looks resilient. We look for six 25bp fed funds rate hikes this year
Source - https://think.ing.com/articles/us-inflation-is-only-going-higher/ and
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/preliminary-cost-of-living-canada-february-2022pptx

INFLATION
Blog – Cost of Living – Canada – February 2022
Canada inflation is now at 5.7% the highest level in over 40 years
The average price of a house is now over 812K
Household debt is at all-time high
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/preliminary-cost-of-living-canada-february-2022

ASSISTED LIVING
@AmitAryaMD
I have been calling out LTC for years
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retirement-and-assisted-living-what-is-next and
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retirement-and-assistant-living-canada-issues-and-what-needs-to-be-
done
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/03/18/ontario-let-a-flood-of-temp-agencies-into-long-term-care-during-
covid-19-how-precarious-work-put-residents-and-caregivers-at-risk.html
We need to re-think all aspects of assisted living.
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retirement-and-assisted-living-what-is-next

SUMMARY
• Provinces need to address their education and healthcare delivery models
• All provinces and territories need a new governance model
• All provinces and territories need live within their means
• Better balanced between protecting the environment and growing the economy
• Addressing systemic issues with housing
• Complete spending review to ensure programs are effective and deliver with value for money
• Addressing productivity issues
• Addressing issues with tax and regulatory reforms
• All levels of government to work together on key policies
• A new rural and urban affairs strategy
• Building resilient supply chain (Food and Energy Security)
• Salary and benefit reform for all levels of government
• More adoption of digital model as part implementing more business automation
Blog–WhatisnextfortheProvinces–Canada–April2022
BNS
housing_note_2022-0
1-12.pdf
housing-affordability.
pdf
economic-news-teran
et.pdf
economic-news-resal
e-market.pdf
HNF_2022-03-15.pdf
2-03-03.pdf
Canadian Mineral
Production.pdf
Public Education -
Spending.pdf
education-spending-i
n-public-schools-in-canada-fall-2021.pdf
Education Provincial
Rankings - How Canada Performs.pdf
prov_fiscal.pdf health-expenditure-d
ata-in-brief-en.pdf
health-expenditure-d
ata-in-brief-en.pdf

What is next for the Provinces – Canada.pptx

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