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Wfs Conference Guy Lundy
- 1. South Africa towards 2030: Reasons to Believe Guy Lundy
- 2. Creating the future “We don’t describe the future we see; we see the future we describe” Philip Spies
- 5. George Bernard Shaw “Newspapers are unable to discriminate… between a bicycle accident and the collapse of civilisation.”
- 6. We live in interesting times…
- 7. Long waves… Roaring 20s 2000s Vietnam War World War US War I of Civil Oil 1812 War Great crisis Depression War on World Terror War II Steam power Railways Electricity & cars Computers 1780 1810 1820 1830 1860 1870 1880 1900 1915 1925 1940 1970 1980 2010
- 9. The world we live in • Globalisation is interlinked with: – Financial crisis
- 10. World’s safest banks 1. Canada 40. France 2. New Zealand 44. Switzerland 3. Australia 47. Botswana 4. Chile 103. Germany 5. Hong Kong 108. United States 6. South Africa 118. Argentina 7. Namibia 130. Iceland 8. Singapore 131. Zimbabwe 9. Panama 132. Mongolia 10. Brazil 133. Ukraine Source: World Economic Forum
- 11. The world we live in • Globalisation is interlinked with: – Financial crisis – Environmental threats – Aging populations • Emergence of BRIC countries
- 12. African growth • More successful countries • Chindian investments • Scramble by former dominant players to reassert themselves • Telecommunications and media explosion • The average African – young, urban and educated • Skills returning
- 14. South Africa: Has the party ended? • Relatively low inflation
- 15. Historical inflation in SA Source: RMB
- 16. South Africa: Has the party ended? • Relatively low inflation • Quite low interest rates
- 17. 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 1991 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002 Prime 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Interest rates at a 30-year low Source: SARB
- 18. South Africa: Has the party ended? • Relatively low inflation • Quite low interest rates • Decent growth till recently • Confidence took a knock
- 21. On the upside: South Africa 2010 • 64 matches • 2.7 million spectators • 300,000 potential tourists? • Cumulative television audience of 28 billion
- 22. Changing the way the world sees us
- 23. Joining the “cool” places Barcelona 1992 Sydney 2000 Germany 2006
- 24. A new view
- 25. Infrastructure improvements • Roads • Bus Rapid Transit • Train station upgrades • Gautrain • Pedestrianisation • Bandwidth • Digital TV • New mobile masts • Airports • Power upgrades • Harbours
- 26. The Growing Middle Class • Black Economic Empowerment & Affirmative Action • Education • Urbanisation • Service delivery
- 27. Poverty & Inequality remain major challenges
- 28. President Zuma: A Reagan-like character?
- 29. The Power behind the Power
- 30. The youth of today (and tomorrow) • Non-racialism • Cultural melting pot • Mixed relationships • Common language
- 33. Challenges The South African puzzle Corruption Zimbabwe Poverty AIDS Unemployment Crime Julius Malema Eskom Education Racism
- 34. Creating the future “A positive future is not a spectator’s future, it’s a participant’s future” Philip Spies