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Microeconomics and Competitiveness


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Microeconomics and Competitiveness

  4. 4. COUNTRY ANALYSIS: HISTORY In 1652, Dutch settlers established an outpost of the Dutch East India Company at the Cape of Good Hope—an important stopover along the trade routes to the East
  5. 5. COUNTRY ANALYSIS: HISTORY The ports Cape Town and With the are the main of Durban, construction 2 entry points for incoming the Suez Canal in 1869, however, traffic shipments to the between Europe and Asia Southern Africa region, but needed to no longer are very far navigate around southern from major markets in Europe and North Africa. America.
  6. 6. COUNTRY ANALYSIS: HISTORY The discovery of diamonds in 1867 and Natural resources include gold in 1886 stimulated coal, iron ore, phosphates, rapid economic growth in the 19th century, although and copper the economy has since become more diverse.
  10. 10. COUNTRY ANALYSIS: SOCIETYPopulation: 49 Million peopleMedian age: 24.4 years (AIDS - 18% adult prevalence rate)Urban population: 60%Human DevelopmentIndex: 125thGDP per capita: 79thRacial categories: - African (80%) - Ethnic groups => Zulu, Xhosa, and Sotho - White (9%) - “Coloured” (9%) - Indian (2%) South Africa has a long history of racial segregation, which was institutionalized as the official state policy of apartheid from 1948 to 1994.
  11. 11. COUNTRY ANALYSIS: POLITICS1994:- First free election. - All residents were permitted to vote regardless of their race. - Nelson Mandela was elected President.1999:-Thabo Mbeki succeeded Mandela.2008:-Thabo Mbeki was ousted in internal party disputes. -Macroeconomic policy orientation had not improved opportunities for disadvantaged groups.2009: -African National Congress (ANC) elected Jacob Zuma. -There is disappointment among poor Africans about the slow pace of change in their position since 1994. -But the ruling ANC is in a long-running alliance with the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South African Communist Party (SACP), so there is not a threat. - Domestically, the government will continue to confront the ongoing HIV/AIDS pandemic and persistent economic inequality.
  12. 12. NATIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE:GDP AND GROWTHGDP per capita: - $12,450 (in 2006 at PPP). (Exhibit 1 and 2)Real GDP: - $455.2 billion (PPP at 2005 prices). - Accounted for 65.6 % of the combined GDP of all economies in the Southern Africa region.1994 to 2004: - Real GDP grew at a compound annual growth rate of 3.1 percent. - The average annual growth rate in labor productivity was 5.5% - Decline of labor force in 0.6 million workers (-3.7%)2004 to 2008: - Economic growth has since accelerated to 4.6 percent - The average annual growth rate in labor productivity was 2.2% - Expansion of labor force in 1.7 million workers (+10.7%) The post-2004 acceleration in growth has been driven mainly by domestic demand and has been financed through a rising current account deficit
  13. 13. NATIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE:ECONOMIC PROFILE South Africa Export Portfolio GDP CONTRIBUTION Service Sector Industry Agriculture Others 2.50% 0.50% 30.00% 67.00% The largest clusters in terms of value are metal- South Africa was leader in producer of mining and manufacturing , followed by jewelryplatinum, gold, and chromium. and precious metals, hospitality and tourism, and- But retail sales had decreased by 4.4 % automotive, which have all been declining in worldand manufacturing had dropped by 4.0% market share. The clusters with the greatest(by the end of 2008) increases in world market share have been coal and financial services
  14. 14. NATIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE:ECONOMIC PROFILE • Workers have entered the formal labor force at a faster The problems of rate than jobs have been created. high • Unemployment is concentrated among low-skilled unemployment workers and is linked to historical racial inequality: and entrenched • Overall unemployment 25%: African 32% vs. inequality have Whites 5% (Exhibit 5 and 6) persisted. • Industries employ workers with low skill levels have been in steady decline. The overall • One of the most unequal countries in the world: Gini poverty rate was coefficient is ranked lower than Namibia, Bolivia, Haiti and57 percent in 2001 Paraguay (2001). (Exhibit 3)
  15. 15. NATIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE:CONSTRAINTS TO CONTINUED ANDSHARED GROWTH The government has pursued the • To raise the annual growth rate to 6 percent and reduce Accelerated and poverty and unemployment by half by 2014. Shared Growth • Improved competitiveness, and equality through the Initiative for South creation of opportunities for the previously Africa (ASGISA) since disadvantaged black population. 2005 • The robust domestic demand has been met by imports: persistent current account deficit. (Exhibit 8) Weaknesses • The current condition of its transportation and energy infrastructure limits its ability to expand exports. (no investment)
  16. 16. NATIONAL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE:ANALYSIS OF NATIONALCOMPETITIVENESS- Global Competitiveness Index : # 36 of 74 countries (2008)- World Bank data: - Government effectiveness: 75% - Regulatory quality: 70% - Control of corruption: 67% (Exhibit 9 – 16) South Africa benefits from sophisticated financial markets, but lags in primary education, national savings, quality of infrastructure, and the incidence of serious disease, including tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS
  17. 17. Factor Conditions• Three important factors negatively impact South Africa’s competitiveness and constrain business: an inadequately educated workforce, crime and theft, and inadequate infrastructure• The efficiency of financial markets is one of South Africa’s greatest strengths, among factor conditions. The World Economic Forum gives South Africa high scores for ease of accessing loans, availability of venture capital and the sophistication of the financial sector
  18. 18. Context for Firm Strategy andRivalry• The labor market is characterized by a low level of flexibility in the labor market. According to an assessment by the World Bank, South Africa’s score on an index of labor rigidity is (42/100)• There are considerable constraints on hiring and firing employees, wage determination is rigid, and employer-worker relations are considered to be weak
  19. 19. Context for firm Strategy andRivalry• South Africa does have a number of strengths in facilitating competition in domestic markets. In an assessment of competitiveness across countries, South Africa ranked high on efficacy of corporate boards (14); efficacy of legal framework (16); protection of minority shareholders’ interest (11); effectiveness of anti-monopoly policy (10) and intellectual property protection (19).
  20. 20. Country Related and Supporting Industries• The availability of research and training services and the quality of collaboration between universities and industry research contribute to the South Africa’s capacity for innovation, which the WEF ranks at 28 across countries• . The quality of domestic Information and Communication Technologies suppliers is generally high, but they have limited capacity to meet market demand
  21. 21. Demand Conditions• The domestic market benefits from an increasing black middle class but also faces the limitations of a extremely high inequality and the persistence of a dual economy with the black majority relying on work and even consumption in the informal sector
  22. 22. Strategic Issues• Macroeconomic stability: Its real exchange rate has been volatile in the past decade and its current account deficit continues to increase as a share of GDP.• Regional opportunities: The neighboring countries are poorer and have much smaller economies. • The economic impact of legacy of apartheid: Deeply rooted in political, economic and social inequality, South Africa is confronting the impact of apartheid on: the structure of the economy (informal/formal; “one country, two economies”), the labor market (lack of skilled workers, rigidity of employment and strong unions, productivity), social indicators (poor public health and transmissible diseases; low level of education), market size (large inequalities) and the business environment (crime and violence associated in part with high levels of inequality). • Infrastructure: South Africa has some important weaknesses in electricity supply, ICT, ports, and logistical infrastructure.
  23. 23. South Africa Country Diamond
  24. 24. Global Textile Industry 3.8%5.0% 32.1% 4.1% 29.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.3% 4.1% 1.5%
  25. 25. Global Apparel Industry 3.8%1.2% 31.1% 1.2% 33.2% 2.5% 1.4% 3.0% 1.7% 3.0%
  26. 26. Textile Value Chain Finished Fibers Yarn Fabric ProductNatural Carding Weaving ClothingMan-Made Combing Knitting Home Furnishings Spinning Bleaching Industry Dyeing Dyeing Finishing
  27. 27. Trends in the Value Chain• Geographical shifts. The shift of apparel manufacturing from developed to low- cost countries has been pronounced over the past decade, with China leading the way in winning market share.• Transnational Corporations (TNCs). The emergence of large international retailers has come to dominate the global textiles and apparel industry, influencing the geographical locations of parts of the value chain and putting further downward pressure on prices because of their immense bargaining power.• “Lean retailing”. Retailers increasingly prefer not to undertake supply chain activities and therefore transfer these onto its suppliers. This necessitates the supplier to offer a “full package” service, which can include taking responsibility for sourcing fabric and trim upstream and taking on logistics, transportation, and delivery downstream.• Speed-to-market. With the emergence of apparel retailers such as Zara and H&M, new standards for fast turnover in styles and fashion trends have emerged, necessitating ever shorter product life- spans. This puts considerable demands on the apparel manufacturers to respond to a series of small, irregular
  28. 28. Development of the Cluster• In the early 1920s, the South African clothing sector was almost nonexistent. Clothing was either imported or tailored• The industry began with the manufacturing of blankets by limited number of small companies in Johannesburg and Cape Town in 1920s and 1930s• During World War II, the industries provided blankets, rugs and sheeting; employed 3,500 workers; and supplied 90 percent of domestic need
  29. 29. Development of the Cluster• After World War II, the cluster expanded into furnishings, industrial textiles and clothing.• In the 1960s, the cluster further expanded into synthetic fibers and the sector almost doubled in size• Because apartheid limited the use of African labor in urban areas, the clothing industry moved to areas with concentrations of Indian and Colored labor: Durban, Cape Town, and areas bordering “Bantustans.”
  30. 30. Development of the Cluster• Cape Town soon became the center of the South African clothing industry, partly driven by the large retail chains based there. In the Western Cape, from 1935 to 1980 the number of firms increased from 30 to 332, and the number of employees increased from 3,500 to 53,421
  31. 31. Development of the Cluster• Liberalization and the restructuring of the industry resulted in large decreases in employment, while productivity has increased through cost-minimization and downsizing rather than production growth.• A total of 30,000 clothing and textile jobs were lost between 1996 and 1999, as the firms competed on cost-minimization and downsizing
  32. 32. Current Cluster Condition• In the past decade, domestic demand for clothing and textile has been constantly increasing, but the domestic industry has not captured the growing demand• Imports of textiles have grown rapidly to an all- time high, while exports have stagnated• Countries with cheaper labor force, including China, have captured large share of sales volume in the global market, which has pushed down the international prices
  33. 33. Current Cluster Condition• the labor cost in South Africa is much higher than competitors, South African textile cluster is losing in the price competition to cheaper exporters.• The employment in clothing industry was 121,108 in 1990, but it decreased to 59,580 in 2001• Employment in the textile industry has also declined in recent years, decreasing from 70,500 in 2003 to approximately 50,500 in 2006 (Textile Federation of South Africa, 2009).
  34. 34. Firm Strategies in the ClusterCompanies in the cluster have survived the tough competition in the domestic market, becauseof the following strategies.Price competition: These low-end firms compete mainly in cost-minimization. They importcheap products in the domestic market by vertically integrating with modern container berthand mobilizing modern equipment. E.g. SBH Cotton.Exporting high-end product: These firms sell high-end products to retail outlets in internationalmarkets in Europe. E.g. Monatic, which has been successful in selling a large volume offashionable men’s suits, but the proximity from the large international market limits their abilityto keep up with up-to-date fashions.Diversify to value-added products: These companies diversified their products and dominateniche segments of the market. They consolidate with related industries, including chemical andmedical industries. E.g. Gelvenor Textiles, which specializes in technical textiles and has 50percent global market share in parachute fabrics.
  35. 35. Map of South African Textiles and Apparel Cluster OI un tp pu ut tI In nd du us st tr ri ie es s
  36. 36. Cluster CompetitivenessSouth Africa’s textile and clothing industry is concentrated in three provinces: WesternCape, Kwazulu-natal and Gauteng. Clothing Firms350 327300 239250 219200150100 50 0 Western Cape Northern areas KwaZulu-Natal
  37. 37. South Africa – Textiles and Apparel Development Development of textile manufacturing Cluster expands cluster in into Industrial Cape Town and Johannesburg textiles and apparel 1920s 1945
  38. 38. Textile and Clothing Industries• Textile and clothing industries are interdependent, as the fabric is the single most significant input into the clothing sector ( half of the cost to produce a garment).• Without an efficient and supportive textiles industry, clothing industry expansion is constrained. On the other hand, clothing industry’s growth in export would have a positive impact on the textile industry by creating higher demand.• The clothing industry requires a significant amount of low-skilled labor; as much as 83 percent of employees in the Western Cape clothing industry was semi- and unskilled in 2004.• Firms in the textile and clothing cluster vary from well-established large firms to small & medium enterprises and home industries. Number of Firms by Revenues Unanswered 55 145 11-25 Million Rand 82 74 Number of Firms Less than 5 Million Rand 429 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
  39. 39. Institutions for Collaboration• The cluster has many potential Institutions for Collaboration (IFC), including associations of employers, labor unions, and government initiatives. The problem is their fragmentation and lack of coordination.• Labor unions in South Africa played important role in fighting against apartheid and have maintained strong political power.• Cooperation between labor and employer is very low in South Africa in general (GCI - ranked 65th ).• Organizations that can play an important role:  Clothing Manufacturers Association  CMT Employers association  Bargaining Council for the Clothing Industry  Clothing Trade Council of South Africa  Industrial Development Corporation  Garment Manufacturers Association  Clothing Industry Export Council  South Africa Clothing and Textiles Workers Union (SACTWU)• Some of these groups have undertaken activities to mobilize stakeholders in the cluster. E.g. SACTWU has organized the Cape Town Fashion Festival with the theme “Wear South African” since 2003.
  40. 40. Cluster Competitiveness Diamond Analysis The South African textile and apparel cluster shares some of the key challenges and advantages identified in the country competitiveness analysis.• Efficient financial market is helpful in nurturing new enterprises in the cluster.• A growing black African middle-class is a driving force for the cluster to shift to the high-end sophisticated market.• High-income inequality limits the size of an emerging sophisticated market.• The high cost of labor, influenced by strong labor unions, rigidity of employment and the restriction by the Black Economic Empowerment policy, is a significant obstacle for the cluster development.• Lack of high-skilled labor.
  41. 41. Factor Conditions• High factor costs (especially labor cost) constraint the ability of the cluster to compete with foreign companies in on price. Country South Africa China Sri- India Lanka USD per hour 1.36 0.68-0.88 0.48 0.38• The labor cost disadvantage is crucial, because the cluster is labor- intensive.• The high labor cost is due in part to the rigidity of employment. Strong labor unions and BEE limit the option of companies in hiring and firing.• Regulations regarding overtime and shift pay, sick leave and pension contributions pose an additional burden for firms
  42. 42. Factor Conditions Raw Materials• Limited access to raw materials is another important challenge to accessing the high-end market.• Domestically produced fabrics are limited in terms of their volume and variety. Cotton produced in South Africa is relatively low, and the cluster cannot rely on domestic cotton for high-quality products• Other weaknesses in the cluster: long lead times, poor delivery reliability and deteriorating quality performance Distance from International Markets• The long distance from EU and US limits the ability of South African firms in updating the design in high-end fashion market• As firms compete in lead time in the high-end fashion market, the distance from these markets and the transportation time required by it will be a huge disadvantage for South African companies• Low quality of infrastructure in domestic logistics is an additional challenge. This problem is more severe for the companies outside the Western Cape
  43. 43. Context for Firm Strategy and Rivalry• While the competition among domestic companies is competitive and well regulated, South Africa has a problem in dealing with imported products.  Customs control can be very ineffective, many Chinese products are imported without any duties or customs.  Illegal dumping of foreign products is also a threat to local producers.• With the aim of reducing the impact of Chinese imported products, the government introduced the China Restraint Arrangement in 2007. This scheme introduced a quota for Chinese export to South Africa, but the effect was questionable because of the loose customs control.• Since that arrangement expired at the end of 2008, the government considered the implementation of a “Rescue Plan” to provide subsidies to local textile and clothing industries and help them compete in the domestic and international markets.
  44. 44. Relating and Supporting Industries• The lack of trust and cooperation between clothing producers and textile producers obstructs the ability of firms to compete effectively.• Different segments in the cluster are fighting against each other to protect their own profits rather than collaborating with each other to promote the competitiveness of the cluster.Opportunities• Potential collaboration with growing design-related industries.  Benefit from the growing fashion, arts and film industries, if they can cooperate with each other to create high end products and promote South African products in domestic and international markets.  Design and fashion industry is growing but still weak, and it needs improvement in the technical schools in design and fashion. Cape Town Fashion Week is a good trial to market the design industry and clothing industry of South Africa to the international market.• Collaboration between retailers and manufacturers..
  45. 45. Demand Conditions• The South African domestic market has a growing middle-class black population that is increasingly sophisticated in its consumption decisions.  This is a segment in the domestic market that the textile cluster can compete in quality and uniqueness of the products.• The income disparity in the country limits the size of the sophisticated market.  The country needs to address the problem of inequality to create a significant and sustainably large segment of the market that will support higher- end products.• International markets in the US and the European Union are another opportunity for the cluster. AGOA and the FTA with the EU provide the companies with valuable access to these markets.  If companies in the cluster increasingly develop unique products, they can improve their ability to penetrate these markets.
  46. 46. South Africa - Textile and Apparel Cluster Diamond
  47. 47. Cluster - Challenges1. Imports impact:• Imports of Chinese clothing products increased by 335% from 2002 to 2004.• China is the most important source of South Africa’s clothing imports (74.3%), followed by India (5.4%).• South Africa’s tariff on clothing products is 45%, the highest level allowed by WTO.• The imported productions have dominated the local textile and clothing market and thus seriously threaten the survive of the local manufactures.• It is estimated that the volume of illegal imports is almost the same as that of legal imports and therefore presents a significant challenge.2. Exports decline:• Textile exports kept increasing from 1995 to 2002, but begun declining since 2003. South Africa Textile Exports (2001- 2006) 6 4 4.5 Exports 3.4 3.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
  48. 48. South Africa Textile Cluster Challenges3. Employment crisis:• The employment of textile and clothing sector declined remarkably from about 190,000 (2000) to about 130,000 (2006).• 55,000 textile workers struck for two weeks in September, 2009, requesting for higher pay.4. Economic crisis• GDP declined in 2009 Quarter Q1 2009 Q2 2009 GDP rate -6.4% -3.0%• Unemployment rate is now close to 30%5. Workplace productivity:• Low levels of productivity and management• Lack of innovation and technology enhancement• Lack of skilled workers and technicians 48
  49. 49. South Africa Textile Cluster Challenges6. Poor Infrastructure• Value chains need to be strengthened (lack of raw material suppliers)• Electric Supply quality deterioration; power outages (lack of sufficient investment)7. Health and welfare of the population:• HIV/AIDS & Tuberculosis pandemic affecting workers abilities• Excessive and widespread crime (ranked last among 74 countries)• Equality through creation of opportunities for disadvantaged black population
  50. 50. Q &A 50