This document describes a visualization project to explore polling data and projected results for the 2017 British Columbia provincial election. The project goals are to: [1] Show the new electoral boundaries for BC; [2] Allow users to input poll numbers and see predicted results based on a swing model; and [3] Visualize the effects of polling margins of error. It provides example projections based on transposing 2013 election results onto the new boundaries and adjusting vote totals based on recent polling data.

1. Visualizing the
2017 BC Election
Frank Hangler @hangler
Plot + Scatter @plotandscatter

2. Data for human consumption

3. http://plotandscatter.com/projects/canada-election-explorer/

4. Polling fails?

5. Canadian Federal Election
October 2015

6. Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015

7. Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015

8. B.C. Provincial Election
May 2013

9. Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2013#Opinion_polls

10. Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2013#Opinion_polls

11. U.S. Presidential Election
November 2016

12. Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016

13. Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016

14. “The only poll that counts is the one on
election day.”

15. Challenges when predicting with polls
1. Polling misses
2. Electoral system effects

16. Visualizing the
2017 BC Elections

18. Visualization project goals
1. Show new BC electoral boundaries
2. Let users “predict” election results by entering
poll numbers (simple swing-based model)
3. Visualize the electoral effects of polling
randomness (margins of error)

19. 2013

20. 2017
Vote transposition data: https://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2016/08/bcs-2013-elxn-on-new-boundaries-bcpoli.html

21. Swing-based model
*Most recent poll data: http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/ReportCardBCNov2016_Tables.pdf
2013 Results Polling* Difference
Liberals 46% 39% -7
NDP 42% 40% -2
2013 results 2017 projection*
Liberal NDP Winner Liberal NDP Winner
Riding A 43% 42% Liberal 43 - 7 = 36% 42 - 2 = 40% NDP
Riding B 37% 45% NDP 37 - 7 = 30% 45 - 2 = 43% NDP

22. http://rocknpoll.graphics

23. FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast

24. FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast

25. Polling MOE ± [ 3.5 ]
------+-- [ 40 ] NDP
-----+--- [ 39 ] Liberals
-+------- [ 21 ] Other
[SIMULATE ELECTION]
British Columbia

26. Thank you!
Frank Hangler @hangler
Plot + Scatter @plotandscatter