Vietnam Cement Market Report 2015

‹#›
Vietnam Cement Market 2015
@ 2015 StoxPlus Corporation.
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Date of report: 31 August, 2015
Part of StoxPlus’s Market Research Report Series for Vietnam www.stoxresearch.com

2
Date: 31 August 2015
Dear Clients,
Re: The publication of Vietnam Cement Market Report, 2015
StoxPlus has been issuing the annually updated Vietnam Cement Market
Report in the last three years, providing the first and most
comprehensive report on this sector. Taking into account feedbacks
from our clients, in addition to the comprehensive analysis of the
market itself, we updated Vietnam Cement Market Report this year with
the focus on analyzing demand and supply together with distribution
network and price of cement in Vietnam.
The research provides latest insights on current situation of supply –
demand in Vietnam cement sector by analyzing two main sources of
demand including (i) domestic (infrastructure, civil and residential
building), and (ii) exporting activities as well as the key development
trends, particularly direct sale and consolidation process. Full 10 year
forecasts (2015 – 2025) are included in this update.
As part of the research, we have conducted various field trips as well as
discussions and interviews with industry players at management levels
to grasp local insights of how cement is distributed in Vietnam. For the
pricing survey, we analyze cement price of different brands (including
PCB30 and PCB40) in the North, Central, and the South. Besides, we get
information on sale revenue of key players and domestic consumption
from Vietnam Cement Association (“VNCA”).
We understand that this is a targeted but also an open research. We would
be happy to provide any further information to address any questions that
you may have, for any specific sector or target business in Vietnam. Our
ultimate objective is to bring real values to our clients via in-depth
research and practical local insights.
Should you have any questions, please contact I myself or our Research
Manager, Ms. Lan Nguyen at +84-4-35626962 (ext. 109) or her email:
lan.nguyen@stoxplus.com
Yours sincerely,
Nguyen Quang Thuan
CEO
StoxPlus Corporation
StoxPlus Joint Stock Company
Head office:
5th Floor, Anh Minh Building
36 Hoang Cau, Dong Da
Hanoi, Vietnam
telephone: (+84-4) 3 562 6962
stoxplus.com
Ho Chi Minh City Branch:
20th Floor, AB Tower
76A Le Lai Street, District 1
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
telephone: (+84-8) 3823 3485
stoxplus.com

3
Table of Contents
Part Content Page
Executive Summary 4 – 5
1 Demand – Supply Analysis 7 – 36
1.1 Current Situation 7 – 14
1.2 Supply Analysis 16 – 23
1.3 Demand Analysis 25 - 36
2 Logistics & Distribution Network 38 – 43
2.1 Logistics System 38 – 39
2.2 Distribution Network 41 – 43
3 Competitive Landscaping & Analysis 45 – 55
3.1 Competition Dynamics 45 – 46
3.2 Sale Strategies 48 – 49
3.3 Pricing Analysis 51 – 55
4 Industrial Performance 57 – 64
4.1 Financial Indicators 57 – 61
4.2 Key Operational Performance 63 - 64
Part Content Page
5 Outlook 66 – 71
5.1 WHR system 66
5.2 M&A and consolidation of the sector 68 – 69
5.3 Key development trends 71
6 Macroeconomic Situation & Regulatory Framework 73 – 80
6.1 Macroeconomics 73 – 75
6.2 Regulatory Framework 77 – 80
7 Appendices 82 – 104
7.1 Appendix 1: Updated list of cement production facilities in
Vietnam
82
7.2 Appendix 2: List of delayed and canceled cement factories 84
7.3 Appendix 3: Major infrastructure projects 86 – 91
7.4 Appendix 4 Factsheet of listed cement companies 93 – 102
7.5 Appendix 5: List of acronyms 104

4
Still, Vietnam cement market continue to
experience the supply surplus with the utilisation
rate of only 60% in 2014 if excluding export sale
volume.
In 2014, Vietnam cement sector witnessed signs of
recovery in domestic market as well as cement and
clinker exporting activities with a significant increase
of 15% in total consumption. Domestically, cement
consumption has reached 50.8 million tons, posting a
growth of 10 per cent year-on-year. Meanwhile,
exporting volume was pegged at 21.2 million tons,
valuing at US$1bn.
Under our base case, which is a prudent scenario
based on analysis of macroeconomics and cement
demand factors such as the status of infrastructure
development and residential sector, we forecast a 7%
annual demand growth for cement until 2025.
Despite the strong growth of domestic and
international demand, Vietnam cement market will
not reach equilibrium until 2022 at our base case
scenario. This could be explained by the fact that
many mega cement factories are under construction
and expected to add up 14.7 MTPY to total production
capacity within the next two years.
New-added supply capacity by region
Executive Summary
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
North Central South Whole
country
MPTY
2015 2017
This page is intentionally removed for demo purpose

5
Consolidation, direct retail and renewable energy
would be the development trends for Vietnam
cement sector in the future.
We are observing an active consolidation tendency
than ever in cement sector of Vietnam. In this
situation where many cement producers are facing
financial distressed, consolidation is just a matter of
timing to obtain the economy of scale for this sector
in both production and logistics. Notable active
acquirers are some local cement companies with
strong financial position including the Vissai and a
few foreign investors.
Also, for cost efficiency, cement companies in
Vietnam are starting to use renewable energy as well
as promote direct sale. The pioneer for this trend is
LafargeHolcim. By 2014, this foreign-owned cement
manufacturer has invested US$18 million in a 44
million kWh WHRPG, which helps LafargeHolcim to
reduce a large amount of non-renewable energy
including coals as well as reducing the CO2 emission.
As required by laws, WHRPG would be constructed by
many other Vietnam cement companies within the
next few years if funding gap is fulfilled.
Executive Summary (cont’d)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SCG Cement - Building Material Anhui Conch (China)
PT Semen Indonesia Vietnam Listed Cement Companies
Vietnam cement EBITDA margin vs. other peers in region

6
Section 1: Demand – Supply Analysis
1.1 Current Situation
1.2 Supply Analysis
1.3 Demand Analysis
Contents

7
Vietnam continues to experience a surplus in cement supply, resulting in the low efficiency of many
cement companies
Figure 1: Vietnam Cement Supply and Demand
In 2014, the utilisation rate of Vietnam cement companies was
around 80% which indicates that Vietnam experienced a supply
surplus of 20%. If excluding the export volume, utilisation rate
would be only 60%.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mt
Total Domestic Production Total Consumption
Source: StoxPlus, VNCA

8
Government is trying to fix the surplus situation
 The Master Plan is no longer a good fit with the new market condition. As a result, the Government has decided to delay 9 out of 16 cement
factories planned to be built by 2015 until after 2015. 24 other projects planned for the period of 2016-2020 is also under a very uncertain status.
 Part of the reason for such delay is also due to lack of fund. As a result of the economic downturn, many owners and investors of cement plants
who have registered for new projects planned under the Master Plan do not have the financial capacity to implement the project, especially the
purchase of equipment. Previously, the government would guarantee the capital invested. However, since 2011, the Government would guarantee
the loans for.
 In fact, many of the registered projects are only for the owners and investors to reserve their share in the Master Plan. They do not have any real
plans to actually implement such projects.
However, the surplus situation still persists, requiring more direction from Government and line ministries to remove cement facilities with
obsolete technology, energy consuming & environment pollution from master plan.
Vietnam continues to experience a surplus in cement supply, resulting in the low efficiency of many
cement companies (cont’d)

9
Figure 2: Cement & clinker consumption, 2010 -2015
Domestic consumption of cement started recovering in 2013 and reached 50.8 million ton in 2014,
posting a 10 percent y-o-y increase
Figure 3: Growth rate of cement domestic consumption, 2005 - 2014
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
% Growth of Domestic Consumption

10
Cement domestic consumption is growing in all regions. The Central is the fastest – growing market with
the sale volume of 12.3 million ton in 2014, followed by the North and the South
Figure 5: Breakdown consumption by location
Figure 4: Growth rate of cement consumption by location
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
North Central South

11
Figure 6: Clinker production and domestic consumption by location, 2014
In comparison with 2013, the supply shortage of clinker in the south became more seriously while
more cement plants came into operation in the North & Central during the year 2014

12
Figure 8: Clinker & cement export volume by type, 2010 - 2015
Due to low domestic consumption and supply surplus, companies have to increase export volume. Yet,
Vietnam still mainly exports clinker instead of bagged cement (80% of export volume)
 However, for the first half of 2015, export activities faced
challenges due to 2 main reasons:
• Political instability in Bangladesh – main clinker exporting
market of Vietnam
• Vietnam clinker lost its competitive advantages in price. In
2015, many clinker exporters in the region including China,
Thailand and Korea increased its production capacity while
domestic demand stayed low. As a result, these countries
promoted exporting activities, leading fiercer competition
for Vietnam. Particularly, China is the main competitor with
lower-price clinker and higher volume.
Key exporters in 2014:
Figure 7: Clinker & cement export over total consumption, 2010 - 2015

13
The Vissai continues to be the leading clinker exporter in Vietnam with total export volume of 3.2 Mt
in 2014
No. Key importers Volume (Mt)
1 Biroute
2 Holcim
3 Heidelberg Cement (“HC”) Trading
4 MI (Crown Cement)
5 Trade Resource
6 SCG Trading
7 Peakward
TOTAL
Figure 10: Top buyers of Vietnam clinker in 2014
Figure 9: Top clinker exporters in 2014
 Buyers of Vietnam clinker are mostly Bangladesh companies and top
global cement companies.
 Biroute is the trading division of commodity house Shun Shing Group
International Ltd, a leading cement producer in Bangladesh. Biroute
bought 3.6Mt of clinker from Vietnam in 2014. Also from Bangladesh
is MI Cement, who bought 0.76Mt clinker from Vietnam in 2014.
 Other top buyers of Vietnam clinker are: Holcim, HC Trading, SCG
Trading, and Peakward.

14
Bangladesh is the top destination for Vietnam clinker and cement export. Export FOB average price of
clinker is around US$39-40 per ton, and US$51-60 for cement
Figure 12: Clinker and cement export of some peers in region, 1H2015
FOB price
(US$/ton)
Clinker
quality
Increase in
exporting (Mt)
Japan
Korea
China
Thailand
Vietnam
Note: + : clinker with higher quality compared to Vietnam’s
- : clinker with lower quality compared to Vietnam’s
Figure 11: Clinker and cement export of destination in 2014

15
1.2 Supply Analysis
1.3 Demand Analysis
Contents

16
According to our analysis, Vietnam cement sector is still characterised by a surplus in supply until
2022 at the base case scenario of 7% y-o-y growth rate
Figure 13: Vietnam Cement Supply and Demand
Source: StoxPlus from VNCA
1.2 Supply Analysis
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
5%
Base case
9%
Capacity
utilisation
Our analysis indicates that cement demand growth will be in the range of 7% per year. At the historical growth of 7% (excluding export),
cement equilibrium will NOT be achieved until 2022.
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Mt
Under the base case,
cement equilibrium
achieved by 2022
28.0(*)
Under the Master Plan, there will be 15 cement factories to be
built and operated by 2020, which would increase cement supply
by 28.0 MTYP. But the status of those projects is very uncertain.

17
Cement Production – Demand Balance Comments
North
Central
South
Supply-demand forecasting by region
Demand growth = 9%
• The South has a CAGR of 3% in cement
consumption from 2007-2010.
• At the base case growth of 7%, the South
will continue to have a shortage of
clinker. The situation would get worse if
none of the cement plants is built
according to the Master Plan.
Demand growth = 7%
Figure 14: Vietnam cement demand and supply by region
Source: StoxPlus’ estimates and analysis; VNCA
Demand growth = 5%
1.2 Supply Analysis

18
Source: StoxPlus
Figure 15: Cement supply capacity by group of players
Vietnam cement capacity currently is nearly 90 MTPY with 4 groups of cement manufacturers. Key
players include: VICEM, Xuan Thanh, Cong Thanh, the Vissai, LafargeHolcim, Nghi Son, and Viettel
FOREIGN-
OWNED
VICEM
LOCAL PRIVATE
VIETTEL
2015
Total Capacity
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
MTPY
FOREIGN-OWNED
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
MTPY
LOCAL PRIVATE
1.2 Supply Analysis

19
Figure 18: Breakdown cement plants by capacity, 2014
Source: StoxPlus
45% of Vietnam cement plants are small with capacity of < 1 MTPY and contributing to less than
20% total capacity, which are not efficient
Figure 16: Breakdown cement plants by capacity, 2014
Source: StoxPlus
1.2 Supply Analysis
Source: StoxPlus
Figure 17: Breakdown cement plants by type, 2014

20
According to the adjusted Master Plan of Vietnam Cement, total cement capacity will reach 138
MTPT by 2020. At that level, supply surplus will likely to continue
Our Forecasting Methodology for Cement SupplyFigure 19: Vietnam production capacity by region, 2015 -2017
Source: StoxPlus
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
North Central South Whole country
MPTY
2015 2017
1.2 Supply Analysis

21
Total capacity of the North remain the highest in the whole country. By 2017, there is 1 new plant
namely Xuan Thanh Assembly 2 with total production capacity of 4.50 MTPY
Figure 21: New plants in the North, 2015 - 2017
Source: StoxPlus
Source: StoxPlus
 Cement facilities are located near the raw material are – limestone
mines. Top provinces in term of number of cement factories are Ha
Nam, Hai Duong and Ninh Binh.
 In the period of 2015 – 2017, there is only one new plant namely Xuan
Thanh Assembly 2 with total production capacity of 4.50 MTPY in Ha
Nam, expected to complete in Q3/2017.
 Vicem is considered the market leader in the North with 7 factories
and total production capacity of 9.4 MTPY.
Figure 20: Key players in the North by capacity in 2015
1.2 Supply Analysis

22
Cement capacity in the Central will increase significantly from now to 2017 due to construction of 3
high capacity cement plants (Cong Thanh, Long Son, and Song Lam)
Figure 23: New plants in the Central, 2015 - 2017
Source: StoxPlus
Source: StoxPlus
Group Company name
Capacity
(MTPY)
VICEM
VICEM Bim Son 4.60
VICEM Hoang Mai 1.40
VICEM Hai Van 1.39
PRIVATE
Dong Lam 1.80
Xuan Thanh 1.40
FOREIGN
Luks Vietnam 2.45
Nghi Son 4.30
Song Gianh 1.40
Figure 22: Key Player in the Central by capacity, 2015
1.2 Supply Analysis

23
There will be no new cement plant in the South from now until 2017. Only 1 grinding station in Can
Tho will be built (grinding capacity = 0.25 MTPY)
Figure 25: New plants in the South, 2015 - 2017
Source: StoxPlus
Source: StoxPlus
Figure 24: Key Player in the South by capacity
1.2 Supply Analysis

24
1.2 Supply Analysis
1.3 Demand Analysis
Contents

25
Demand for Vietnam cement depends on 2 sources: domestic construction (including infrastructure,
non-residential, and residential construction) and overseas demand (cement export)
1.3 Demand Analysis
Demand source Market value in 2014 Growth trend Implications for cement
Infrastructure US$12.3bn
Strong growth
US$300bn more
infrastructure project
from 2015-2030
Key main drivers for
cement demand. Yet,
many projects face
funding challenges
Non-residential (civil
and office buildings)
US$6.7bn
Stable growth, focusing on
big cities such as Hanoi
and Ho Chi Min City
Higher cement demand
focusing on big cities
Residential US$16.9bn
Strong growth with higher
transaction volume as well
as new projects,
particular for low and
medium-end buildings
The second major drivers
for cement demand.
However, this source
heavily depend on its own
cycle
Cement
Export
US$912mn
(21.1 Mt clinker and
cement)
Slow growth
A temporary solution for
the supply surplus of
Vietnam cement

26
Figure 26: Gross output of construction by types of work Figure 27: Growth rate of construction gross output by types of work
Source: StoxPlus from General Statistics Office of Vietnam
In line with economic recovery, Vietnam construction sector posted a potential growth rate of 10.2%
y-o-y in 2014
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD2015
US$bn
Residential buildings Non-residential buildings
Civil engineering works Specialized construction services
For the first half of 2015, construction output reached US$14.9 bn,
contributing to 5.02% of total GDP.
Residential and non-residential buildings:
• Residential buildings keeps its recovery trend with the impressive
growth rate of 13.5% in 2014. On the contrary, non-residential segment
posted an negative growth rate for the same period.
• The VND30,000 bn - credit package of the SBV had clear instruction
from Line Ministry after the period of delay in disbursement.
• Up to the present time, the whole country has 124 social housing
projects that are underway with construction scale of about 78,700
units, including 85 social housing projects for low-income people.
1.3 Demand Analysis

27
Figure 28: Construction and infrastructure value
Source: StoxPlus from BMI
Figure 29: Rural and urban population growth rate
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e
Population growth rate Urban growth rate Rural growth rate
Thank to the golden age population with the urbanization rate up to 3% per year and high demand
for infrastructure development, the construction and infrastructure development sector has been
potential in long term
1.3 Demand Analysis

28
Figure 31: Infrastructure project value by categories, 2015 - 2030
Source: StoxPlus
Vietnam is expected to spend about US$20bn on infrastructure development annually during the
period of 2015 – 2030 for a total investment value of US$283bn
1.3 Demand Analysis
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Power
Plants
Roads &
Bridges
Railways Ports Oil & Gas Water Airports
2015 - 2020 2020 - 2030
Source: StoxPlus
Figure 30: Number of infrastructure projects by categories, 2015 - 2030

29
Of all sections, road and bridge is the highest cement consumption one which total value reaches
US$67.7bn in the period of 2015 - 2023
Source: StoxPlus
Figure 32: Value of major infrastructure projects in 2015 - 2030
Source: StoxPlus
Figure 33: Top roads and bridges projects by value in 2015 – 2030
1.3 Demand Analysis

30
The infrastructure projects are allocated in developing economic zones including Red River Delta in
the North, South Central Coast in the Central, and South East in the South
Source: StoxPlus
Figure 35: Infrastructure project value by region, 2015 - 2030
1.3 Demand Analysis
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
South Central Coast
South East
Red River Delta
Mekong River Delta
North Central Coast
Northern Midlands & Mountainous
Central Highlands
Source: StoxPlus
Figure 34: Number of infrastructure by region in 2015 - 2030Implication for cement sectors:
• According to Vietnam cement experts, cement consumption rate
varies for difference type of infrastructure projects. Particularly,
the cement value proportion over total investment value is as
followed:
− Roads & Bridges, Ports, Airports: 5 – 7%
− Other types: less than 3%

31
Mega infrastructure projects in Hanoi and HCMC in period of 2015 – 2030 are mainly roads & bridges
and Metro Line, which are high-cement consumption segments
1.3 Demand Analysis

32
Figure 36: Major infrastructure projects by status in 2015 - 2030
Source: StoxPlus
However, a large number of infrastructure projects are still in the planning step
Delayed
Under
construction
Project finance
closure
Designing
Fund
seeking
Contract
awarded
FS approved
N/A
Planning,
2015-2020
Delayed
Under construction
Designing
Fund seeking
Contract awarded
FS
approved
N/A
Planning 71%
2020-2030
1.3 Demand Analysis

33
Figure 37: Project under construction, y-o-y change
Source: StoxPlus from CBRE
All Future
Projects (2015-
2030)
HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Can Tho Khanh Hoa Vung Tau Hai
Phong
Office 202 269 58 28 11 35 17
Retail 98 140 37 7 14 20 11
Hospitality & SA 33 35 29 4 27 19 5
Total 582 731 203 45 66 95 43
Figure 38: Future projects by category, 2015 - 2030
Source: StoxPlus from CBRE
1.3 Demand Analysis
Office building is the biggest cement consumption segment in non-residential buildings. Future office
projects are mainly located in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City

34
The residential market, which had been depressed for several years, is experiencing strong signs of
recovery
1.3 Demand Analysis
Figure 39: Project under construction, y-o-y change
Source: StoxPlus from Cushman & Wakefield

35
Population: 5.6m
Capacity: 0.3 MTPY
Consumption: 5.8 Mt
Per cap: 1,044 kg
Population: 65.2mn
Capacity: 56.4 MTPY
Consumption: 29.8 Mt
Per cap: 457 kg
Population: 6.9mn
Capacity: 2.8 MTPY
Consumption: 3.4 Mt
Per cap: 515 kg
Population: 92.6mn
Capacity: 86.6 MTPY
Per cap: 546 kg
Population: 100.1mn
Capacity: 28.4 MTPY
Per cap: 210 kg
Population: 15.6mn
Capacity: 2.0 MTPY
Consumption: 3.2 Mt
Per cap: 205 kg
Population: 51.4mn
Capacity: 5.5 MTPY
Consumption: 8 Mt
Per cap: 155 kg
Population: 0.5mn
Capacity: 0.5 MTPY(grinding)
Consumption: 0.4 Mt
Per cap: 795 kg
Population: 30.0mn
Capacity: 33.0 MTPY
Per cap: 692 kg
Import
Exports
Imports & exports
Population: 251.5mn
Capacity: 67.1 MTPY
Consumption: 60 Mt
Per cap: 238 kg
Source: StoxPlus from Cemtech
1.3 Demand Analysis
There are 3 groups of countries in ASEAN in term of cement consumption: cement import, cement
export and cement import & export
Figure 40: Overview of ASEAN countries

36
Figure 41: Potential market for Vietnam cement export
Source: StoxPlus from HC Trading, Cemergy
Bangladesh is still the most potential market for exporting clinker & cement
1.3 Demand Analysis

37
2.1 Logistics System
2.2 Distribution Network
Contents
Section 2: Logistics & Distribution Network

38
Clinker and cement are transported from the North and Central to the South. Ocean shipping is the
preferred means of transportation due to large volume and low cost
Clinker
Grinding & Packaging
Warehouse
Thanh Hoa
CanTho/Vinh Long
Hiep Phuoc –HCM
Quang Ninh
Hai Phong
Quang Binh
Figure 42: Clinker & cement transportation routes
Source: StoxPlus

39
There are 17 sea ports belonging to 10 cement companies / plants
Figure 43: List of harbors and ports of cement companies
Source: Ministry of Transportation

40
Contents

41
Vietnam cement distribution network are following the modern model of direct sale recently

42
General characteristics of cement distribution system in Vietnam
Figure 44: Cement supply chain
Source: TNS

43
General characteristics of cement distribution system in Vietnam
Figure 45: Value chain analysis of a leading cement producer
Source: StoxPlus

44
Section 3: Competitive Landscaping & Analysis
3.1 Competition Dynamics
3.2 Sales Strategies
3.2 Pricing Analysis
Contents

45
Source: Cement Association and StoxPlus
Market share of key players in 2014: VICEM accounts for 35% of total market share in terms of sales
revenue.
Figure 46: Market shares by key players in 2014

46
Different groups of players have different competitive advantages that impact their sales strategies.

47
Contents

48
More details on sales strategies of key players
3.2 Sale Strategy

49
Key Players Product
differentiation
Pricing Target
market
Distribution channels Logistics capability Implications on sales
strategy
Foreign-
owned
Thang Long • Price premium of
3.7% for PCB40
(+3.7%); 7.2% for
PCB30 in the North
(+ 7.2%) and 28.5% in
the Central (+28.5%)
• North • Have a large
distribution network in
the North and some
distributors in the
South such as: Thanh
An (in Ho Chi Minh).
• A port in Quang
Ninh (Cai Lan port)
• Retain the price premium
in the North and Central
regions based on branding
More details on sales strategies of key players
3.2 Sale Strategy

50
Contents

51
Vietnam cement price is still much lower than neighbouring countries due to supply surplus and lack
of planning from the Government, leading to price dumping.
Figure 47: Comparison of cement price per ton of countries in the region, as of April 2015
Source: StoxPlus, ICR
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Myanmar Malaysia Singapore Bangladesh Cambodia India Thailand Indonesia Vietnam
US$perton
Vietnam has the
lowest price in
the region

52
Figure 48: Average price of PCB30 and PCB 40 by region, as of 30/4/2015
Cement price is the highest in the South (around US$72 - 85), while is the lowest in the North (around
US$57 - 66)
0.00
15.00
30.00
45.00
60.00
75.00
90.00
PCB30 PCB40
US$perton
North Central South

53
Hoang Thach is the clear price leader for PCB30 in the North, while Nghi Son leads in PCB40 due to
their superior quality.
Figure 50: Price of PCB30 in the North, as of 30/4/2015
Figure 49: Price of PCB40 in the North, as of 30/4/2015
Average = 62.4 US$/ton
-15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%
Nghi Son
Ha Long
Thang Long
Cam Pha
Tuyen Quang
PCB40 North
Source: StoxPlus, VNCA Source: StoxPlus, VNCA

54
Hoang Thach is also the price leader in the Central region.
Figure 51: Price of PCB30 in the Central region, as of 30/4/2015

55
Vicem Ha Tien is the price leader in the South due to their brand and long standing history. Foreign
companies also have a high price strategy in the South.
Figure 52: Price of PCB30 and PCB40 in the South, as of 30/4/2015
• Other foreign companies also dominate the market price in the South, with Holcim, Chinfon, and FICO all able to attain a price premium.
Average = 77.4 US$/ton

56
Section 4: Industrial Performance
4.1 Financial Indicators
4.2 Key Operational Performance
Contents

57
Figure 53: Vietnam cement companies' EBITDA vs. other peers in the region
Source: StoxPlus
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SCG Cement - Building Material Anhui Conch (China)
PT Semen Indonesia Vietnam Listed Cement Companies
Compared with other peers in region, Vietnam cement companies are still considered low efficient

58
Source: StoxPlus
In 2014, most of listed cement companies had higher EBITDA than that of 2013 thanks to the decrease
in fuel price, particularly coal. Most of high EBITDA margin companies belong to VICEM group.
Figure 54: % EBITDA of Listed Cement Companies

59
Figure 55: D/E of Listed Cement Companies
Source: StoxPlus
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
2013 2014
The average D/E ratio of listed cement companies has improved, standing at 3.5 times. Big
borrowings put a burden to cement companies and some of them go to bankrupt

60
Figure 56: Net Profit Margin of Listed Cement Companies
Source: StoxPlus
Majority of cement companies gained profit in 2014 but some SOEs including Song Da Cement, X18
Cement and Lang Son Cement.

61
Reasons for high manufacturing costs and low profit of Vietnam cement plants

62
Contents

63
Clinker Cost Analysis
Figure 57: Clinker cost of production of a leading cement player in the Central region
Source: StoxPlus
Original cost of production
• This breakdown is based on the clinker cost structure of a leading
cement player in the Central region.
• According to this structure, the composition of clinker cost is as
followed: coal (60%), electricity (14%), raw materials (10%),
maintenance (9%), labor (6%), SG&A (1%), and other fixed costs (1%).
• Coal accounts for the majority of clinker cost of production, as coal is
concentrated in quang Ninh Gulf area in the North and has to be
transported to the Central for clinker production, hence driving up the
cost.

64
Detailed Cement Landed Cost: a case study in the Central of Vietnam

65
Section 5: Outlook
5.1 WHRPG System
5.2 M&A and Consolidation
5.3 Key Development Trends
Contents

66
Section 5: Outlook
5.1 WHRPG System
By 2014 end, all cement projects with a capacity of 2,500 tonnes of clinker per day must have
WHRPG system commissioned but only three of them complied with the regulation until now
Cement plants implemented WHRPG
• Currently only Holcim Hon Chong (Kien Giang), Ha Tien 1 (previously
known as Ha Tien 2) and Cong Thanh Cement (Production Assembly 1)
have invested in the technology so far, according to Vietnam Cement
Association.
Fund for WHRPG

67
Section 5: Outlook
5.1 WHRPG System
Contents

68
Cement sector has been experiencing an active consolidation than ever in Vietnam by both among
domestic players and inbound transactions from giant regional players
Section 5: Outlook

69
Acquiror VIETNAM Type AnDate Size (US$m) Stake
Acquiror KAZAKHSTAN Type AnDate Size (US$m) Stake
FOREIGN INVESTORS
Taget Name
SONG GIANH COSEVCO CEMENT
Seller
HB GROUP
Acquiror N/A Type AnDate Size (US$m) Stake
Minority February 13, 2015 0.00% → 40.00%
Taget Name
SONG DA CEMENT
Section 5: Outlook

70
Section 5: Outlook
5.1 WHRPG System
5.3 Key Development Trends
Contents

71
Consolidation, direct retail and renewable energy would be the development trends for Vietnam
cement sector in the future
TopCement Case Study
• TOPCEMENT was founded with the idea of direct sale to cement retailers
without the presence of distributors.
• TOPCEMENT provide pioneering new methods in business as well as the
solutions used cement an effective manner, creating value visible to
investors, partners and our customers.
• In the period 2010 – 2014, TOPCEMENT invested in US$4.5 million in
developing the retail network, grinding stations as well as cement deport to
accelerate the direct sale of cement.
Section 5: Outlook
5.3 Key Trend Developments

72
Section 6: Macroeconomic Situation & Regulatory Framework
6.1 Macroeconomic
6.2 Regulatory Framework
Contents

73
Vietnam economic has shown early signs of firming up of recovery in 2014.
Figure 58: Vietnam CPI and GDP growth, 2009 – Q2/2015
Figure 59: FDI registered and disbursement into Vietnam,2005 -
1H2015
6.1 Macroeconomic
6.78%
6.44%
18.57%
1.00%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
GDP Growth CPI
3.3 4.1
8.0
11.5 10.0 11.0 11.0 10.5 11.5 12.5
6.3
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
US$bn
FDI registered FDI Disbursed

74
Real estate business and construction seem not to attract FDI investors in first half of 2015 with only
10% of total FDI registered capital.
Figure 60: : Breakdown of FDI registered capital by country, 1H2015
Source: StoxPlus from Ministry of Planning & Investment
Source: StoxPlus from Ministry of Planning & Investment
Figure 61: : Breakdown of FDI registered capital by sector, 1H2015
FDI composition:
• Most of FDI projects in Vietnam are done by small and medium
companies. They focus on manufacturing sector like garment,
footwear and other basic export processing and concentrate in
HCMC, Hanoi and provinces around these two cities like Binh Duong,
Dong Nai , Tay Ninh (near HCMC), Vinh Phuc, Hai Phong (near Hanoi).
• Top FDI mega-projects in 1H2015 includes Hyosung Dong Nai Ltd –
Turkey (US$660 mn – Dong Nai); Worldon Vietnam Ltd – British Virgin
Islands (US$300 mn - HCM City); Lu Thai – Hong Kong (US$160 mn –
Tay Ninh); and Tra Vinh 1 Power Plant – South Korea (US$120 mn –
Tra Vinh). Three out of four top projects are in garment sector.
• Recently, Vietnam starts moving up the value chain by
accommodating some large investment projects by MNCs, TNCs in
electronic and high-tech industries. Canon has it biggest printer
assembling plant in Vietnam, Intel invested over 1 billion USD to
build a chip testing and assembling plant, Samsung put in 600 million
to build a cell phone assembling plant.
• FDI disbursement in 1H2015 in real estate business and construction
is small, accounting for 10% of total FDI registered capital.
6.1 Macroeconomic

75
Figure 62: Vietnam State Deficits, 2006 - 2015
Figure 63: State Capital Investment Expenditure, 2006 - 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
US$mn
State budget expenditure Development investment
State Deficit has been increasing steadily since 2012. Meanwhile, State capital investment
expenditure decreases sharply, with a slight bounce back in 2015.
6.1 Macroeconomic

76
Section 6: Macroeconomic Situation & Construction Development
6.1 Macroeconomic
Contents

77
The Government has eased its control of cement price in an attempt to develop a market-driven
pricing mechanism
Cement price: regulatory roundup
• Under the Law on Price (Law No. 11/2012/QH13 dated 20 June 2012), the
Government shall manage the price under the market mechanism, respect
right of self-determination of price, the price competition of organizations
and individuals as prescribed by law.
− Cement and construction steel;
− Coal;
− Animal feed for cattle, poultry and fishery…;
− Printing paper and writing paper (roll), newsprint paper produced
domestically;
− Textbooks;
− Functional food for under-6-year-old children, etc.

78
The cement producers are obligated to pay different types of taxes and tariffs
Figure 64 : Environmental Protection Tax applied from Jan 2012
Type of resources Tax rate
range (%)
Applicable
tax rate (%)
Iron
Bauxite
Limestone
Anthracite coal (underground)
Anthracite coal (surface mining)
Lignite (Brown coal), Fat coal
Other types of coal
Figure 65 : Natural resources tax rates applied since 1 Feb 2014
Source: Law No. 57/2010/QH12 & Circular No. 152/2011/TT-BTC
Source: Law No. 45/2009/QH12, Resolution No. 712/2013/UBTVQH13 &
Dispatch No. 18228/BTC-CST

79
The Government no longer provides loan guarantee and material price subsidies to cement players
Government loan guarantees for cement sector
• As of 31 Oct 2013, Vietnamese government guaranteed foreign loans
worth US$1.378bn for 17 cement projects, accounting for 8.96% of total
government-backed debts, according to Agency for Debt Management and
External Finance, MOF.
• There were four SOE projects including Dong Banh, Thai Nguyen, Tam
Diep and Hoang Mai which were in huge loss-making situations and on the
edge of bankruptcy. Their total debt was US$229mn and the MOF has
actually repaid the loans, assuming guarantor’s role.
• In a press release in 2012, MOF has announced that US$30-40 mn each
year will be spent on settling foreign debts for local cement producers
until 2018.

80
Cement industry looks to limit imports of clinker and cement to protect domestic producers
Table 66 : Export-Import tax rate, 2014
Source: Circular No. 164/2013/TT-BTC

81
Section 7: Appendices
Contents
7.1 Appendix 1: Full list of cement plants to be built under period 2015-
2030
7.2 Appendix 2: List of delayed and cancelled plants
7.3 Appendix 2: Major infrastructure projects
7.4 Appendix 3: Factsheet of listed cement companies
7.5 Appendix 4: List of acronyms

82
No Owner Factory Name Address Province
Status update
Total
Capacity
Appendix 1: Full list of cement plants to be built under period 2015-2030

83
Contents
7.1 Appendix 1: Full list of cement plants to be built under period 2015-2030

84
No. Owner Factory
Capacity
(Mt)
1 Bac Kan Mineral Jsc Cho Moi 0.91
2 CTCP phát triển CN IDC Viet Duc 0.91
3 Truong Son Jsc Ngan Son (Bo Ha) 0.91
4 Luong Son Cement Jsc Cao Duong 0.91
5 Song Hong Corporation Long Tho 2 0.91
6 Phu Son Cement Jsc Phu Son 1.20
7 My Duc Cement Jsc My Duc 1.60
8 Nam Dong Cement Investment Jsc Nam Dong 1.80
9 Hung Vuong Development Jsc Yen Mao 0.91
10 Tan Tao Investment Industry Corp Tan Tao 0.91
11 Saigon Invest Group (SGI) Sai Gon Tan Ky 0.91
12 Minh Tan Cement Jsc Minh Tam 1.80
13 Thang Long Invest Group Thanh Son 1.00
14 Tan Phu Xuan Cement Jsc Tan Phu Xuan 0.91
15 Can Tho Mineral & Cement Jsc Hau Giang Grinding 0.25
Total 15.84
Source: StoxPlus
Master Plan is adjusted to secure the future of Vietnam cement sector
 The Prime Minister decided to remove 5 plants from Master Plan
(No. 1 – 5 in the table) and delay 10 other plants, of which one
is grinding station in Can Tho. The reason for such that delay in
the case of Hau Giang Grinding is due to environmental issues.
 The reason for such the Government’s action is that Master Plan
does not fit the situation of Vietnam anymore. Part of the
reason for such delay is also due to lack of fund. As a result of
the economic downturn, many owners and investors of cement
plants who have registered for new projects planned under the
Master Plan do not have the financial capacity to implement the
project, especially the purchase of equipment.
 Additionally, according to Decision 1488/QD-TTg on approving
cement sector development until 2020, the Government
prioritizes developing highly-automated, energy efficiencies and
environmental – friendly cement factories.
Appendix 2: List of delayed and cancelled plants

85
Contents

86
Appendix 3: Major infrastructure projects
No.. Airport City/Province Economic zone Value (US$mn) Status New Timeframe
No.. Oil & Gas Pipelines City/Province Economic zone Value (US$mn) Status Timeframe
1 B - O Mon Natural Gas Pipeline Can Tho Mekong River Delta
800.00
Under
construction 2010 - 2015
2 Nam Van Phong Oil Refinery Khanh Hoa South Central Coast
8,000.00Delayed 2015 - 2020
3 Nam Con Son 2 Pipeline Project Ba Ria - Vung
Tau
South East
1,300.00
Planning NA

87
No.. Ports City/Province Economic zone
Value
(US$mn)
Status New Timeframe

88
No.. Power Plants & Transmission Grids City/Province Economic zone Value (US$mn) Status Timeframe

89
No.. Railways City/Province Economic zone
Value
(US$mn)
Status Timeframe

90
No.. Roads & Bridges City/Province Economic zone
Value
(US$mn)
Status Timeframe

91
No.. Water City/Province Economic zone
Value
(US$mn)
Status Timeframe

92
Contents

93
HA TIEN 1 CEMENT HT1 HT1 HT1 HT1 HT1
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales
Cost of Sales
Gross Profit
GP Margin %
Overhead Expenses
Sales & Marketing
S&M %
Administration
Admin %
EBIT
EBIT Margin %
Depreciation
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin %
Financial Expense
Interest Expense
Profit/(Loss) before tax
Net Profit/(Loss) after tax
Net Profit Margin %
Cash Flow From Operation
CFO/Sales
Current Assets
Accounts receivable
Inventory
Non-Current Assets
Total Assets
Current Liabilities
Accounts payable
Borrowings
Non-Current Liabilities
Borrowings
Total Liabilities
Net Assets
Debt/ Total Assets
BIM SON CEMENT BCC BCC BCC BCC BCC
Appendix 4: Fact sheet of listed cement companies

94
VICEM BUTSON BTS BTS BTS BTS BTS
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales
EBIT
VICEM HOANG MAI CEMENT HOM HOM HOM HOM HOM
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013
Sales
EBIT

95
SAI SON CEMENT SCJ SCJ SCJ SCJ SCJ
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
THAI BINH CEMENT TBX TBX TBX TBX TBX
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales
EBIT

96
CAN THO CEMENT CCM CCM CCM CCM CCM
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales
EBIT
VICEM HAI VAN HVX HVX HVX HVX HVX
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales
EBIT

97
QUANG NINH
CONSTRUCTION & CEMENT QNC QNC QNC QNC QNC
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales 1,418,765 1,630,898 1,600,004 1,258,904 1,288,333
Cost of Sales 1,133,322 1,313,990 1,390,629 1,079,181 1,157,078
SONG DA CEMENT SCC SCC SCC SCC SCC
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales
EBIT

98
SONG DA YALY CEMENT SDY SDY SDY SDY SDY
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales
EBIT
TIEN SON CEMENT TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales
EBIT

99
CEMENT MATERIALS AND
TRANSPORT VTV VTV VTV VTV VTV
Sales
EBIT
DANANG MATERIALS AND
CEMENT DXV DXV DXV DXV DXV
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales
EBIT

100
YEN BAI CEMENT YBC YBC YBC YBC YBC
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales 299,300 333,203 359,139 432,716 483,011
EBIT
LANG SON CEMENT LCC LCC LCC LCC LCC
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales
EBIT

101
CEMENT PETROLEUM NGHE
AN PX1 PX1 PX1 PX1 PX1
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales
EBIT
GYPSUM AND CEMENT TXM TXM TXM TXM TXM
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales
EBIT
Debt/ Total Assets 44.5% 41.2% 0.0% 4.6% 4.8%

102
HA LONG CEMENT HLCM HLCM HLCM HLCM HLCM
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales 0 1,777,021 1,298,462 0 0
Cost of Sales 0 1,333,160 1,205,726 0 0
Gross Profit 0 443,861 92,736 0 0
CAM PHA CEMENT CPCM CPCM CPCM CPCM CPCM
VND Millions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sales 0 1,933,253 1,967,081 0 0

103
Contents

104
No. Word Stand for No. Word Stand for
1 ARC Acid Resistant Cement
2 BMI Business Monitor International
3 bn billion
4 CARG Compounded Annual Rate of Growth
5 CBRE Commercial Real Estate Services
6 CIF Cost, Insurance & Freight
7 CPI Consumer Price Index
8 D/E Debt/Equity
9 DWT Dead Weight Tonnage
10 EBITDA Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and
Amortization
11 EC Expansive Cement
12 EPT Environmental Protection Tax
13 FDI Foreign Direct Investment
14 FII Foreign Indirect Investment
15 FOB Free On Board
16 GDP Gross Domestic Product
17 GSO General Statistics Office
18 HCMC Ho Chi Minh City
19 ICOR Incremental Capital Output Ratio
20 M&A Mergers & Acquisitions
21 mn Million
22 MT Million Ton
23 MTPY Million Ton Per Year
24 na Not Availble
25 NRT Natural Resources Tax
26 MoIT Ministry of Industry and Trade
27 ODA Official Development Assistance
28 PCB Blended Portland Cement
29 PPPs Public-Private Partnerships
30 SBV State Bank of Vietnam
31 SG&A Selling. General and Administration Expense
32 SOEs State Owner Enterprise
33 STAMEQ Director for Standards, Metrology And Quality
34 VICEM Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation
35 WHRPG Waste Heat Recovery Power Generation
36 VNCA Vietnam Cement Association
Appendix 5: List of Acronym

105
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‹#›
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Hai Khieu
Research Associate
+84 (0) 35626962 (ext. 109)
+84 (0) 966 510 388
hai.khieu@stoxplus.com
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5th Floor, Indovina Bank Building
36 Hoang Cau Street
Hanoi, Vietnam
+ 84 (4) 3562 6962
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76 Le Lai Street, District 1
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
+ 84 (8) 3823 3485
Lan Nguyen
Research Manager
+84 (0) 35626962 (ext. 109)
+84 (0) 96 494 6760
lan.nguyen@stoxplus.com

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