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UURAF Presentation FINAL
- 1. THE GEOPOLITICAL POWER SHIFT IN EURASIA: A NEW WORLD ORDER? PRESENTER: JACQUELINE CICCHINI MENTOR: NORMAN GRAHAM, PH.D. DEPT. JAMES MADISON AND CERES MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY, EAST LANSING
- 2. OUTLINE Road-map and organization of talk. • Purpose? • Who? • What? • Evidence • Data • Conclusion
- 3. PURPOSE? To understand China’s role in Eurasia and implications for the future global order in terms of economic and political power
- 4. RESEARCH QUESTION(S) • 1) Is China’s increasing economic and institutional dominance a threat to Central Eurasia? • 2) What role does Russia play in China’s rise? Is Russia’s power being weakened or strengthened?
- 5. BACKGROUND • Soviet Russia • Russian Revolution, 1917 • Influence of communism around the world socialist bloc governments • 1922: Union of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and the Transcaucasian Republics • Structure & Politics • One party political system, largest state in the world (8.6 million square miles) • Planned economy, strong railway and transport system • Strongest nation both politically and economically in Eurasia
- 6. BACKGROUND[…] • Russia Today • Less control for Russia • Collapse of USSR • Some soviet nations established established sovereignty • No longer economically dominant, China is major player • Market force based • Abundant natural resources such as oil/gas • EU Sanctions have hurt Russia’s trading ability and financial stability • Battered economy • Increase in interest rates by 17% • Capitol outflows, falling oil prices, lack of access to foreign markets and demographic problems
- 7. SHIFT IN POWER CHINA • After Mao’s communist regime… • Market-socialism, government no longer in control of all businesses; however, maintains strong central government • Increased trade relationship with post-Soviet countries • Historically Russian dominated • Infrastructure development and investment • Sign of changing power in Central Eurasia
- 8. CHINA - RUSSIA • “If the Russian side needs it, we will provide necessary assistance within our capacity” – Xi Jinping • “The role of Ukraine, as a transit country, will be reduced to zero…Gazprom has de facto abandoned Ukraine as a transit party” – Gazprom CEO
- 9. THE SILK ROAD ‘ONE BELT ONE ROAD’ • Trade & Investment • “I believe that 2015 will provide the development of the ‘One Belt One Road’ is an initiative primarily raised by China, it is fundamentally open and inclusive in nature” – China’s Minister of Commerce, Gao Hucheng • What is China doing? • November 2014: Pledged $40 billion to set up a silk road fund to improve connectivity across Asia by investing in infrastructure, resources and industrial and financial cooperation • $54.7 billion to areas and regions in Central and South Asia • Energy, railway, and highway infrastructures
- 10. GAS AND PIPELINE DEALS • Russian-Gas deal • 30 year agreement to start in 2018 • Up to 68 bcm of Russian gas to be delivered to China annually • $350-400 per cubic meter • Possible Routes are Altai pipeline and power of Siberia pipeline • “New Natural Gas Cooperation Alliance” • Altai Pipeline • Gazprom to supply 30 billion cubic meters per year for 30 years from Western Siberia to Northwest China • When?: Starting in 2019
- 11. OIL AND GAS GRAPH
- 13. MULTILATERAL AGREEMENTS • Asia Pacific Free Trade Deal • Shanghai Cooperation Organization • Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank • Alternative to World Bank • Been approached by 27 prospective founding members with the UK, France, Italy, Luxembourg, and Switzerland • Start? By end of 2015 • “Austria has already had close economic and political ties with the Asian region and is always so far very positive about international projects” – Johannes Frischmann, a spokesman for Finance Minister Hans Joerg Schelling
- 14. SO WHAT?
- 15. CONCLUSION • China’s rise with its continued streak of economic dominance should be viewed as a threat to Central Eurasia • Why? • Regional alliances neighboring China should be wary of measures taken to build international alliances • Russia is losing power and credibility in the region and relying on China for economic support • Now what? • Needs to reconsider the anti-West rhetoric, this could help lift sanctions imposed by EU
- 16. REFERENCES • http://www.eurasiareview.com/15122014-russian-risks-rise-china-energy-deals- analysis/ • http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-and-Chinas-Growing-Energy- Relationship.html • http://www.globalresearch.ca/russia-and-china-the-dawning-of-a-new-monetary- system/5423637 • http://rt.com/business/233051-russia-china-boost-partnership/ • http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/china-setting-the-agendas/ • http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?lng=en&id=188638 • http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital- Library/Publications/Detail/?lng=en&v33=118574&ots627=0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24- a6a8c7060233&id=189360 • http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21639557-russian-economy-will-take-long- time-recover-it-badly-needs-structural-reforms-it • http://rt.com/business/242533-russia-china-eastern-route/ • http://rt.com/business/243753-austria-china-infrastructure-bank/ • http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-03/25/content_19908124.htm
- 17. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS • This project was made possible by Michigan State University • Special thank you to my faculty advisor Professor Graham for his dedication to research in Eurasian politics and guidance through the process of my own research
- 18. QUESTIONS?