A little something from Spring 2010 regarding America and the "Rise of the Rest," being Brazil, Argentina, Russia, India, China.

1. Michael Musgrove

2.  Recession and recovery – Ross
 Porter's diamond analysis – David
 India and Brazil – Raj
 China – Lisa
 A closer look at the rising rest – Adam
 Strategy and wrap up – Thomas

3. • NBER (National Bureau of Economic
Research)
•Declared beginning around December
2007
• Recession = Domino Effect
Subprime
Mortgage
Crisis
Banks
Collapse
Lending
Frozen
Manufacturing
Layoffs

4. •“Recession” is defined by NBER as
“significant decline in the economic activity
lasting more than a few months”

5.  Governmental Actions
 October 2008
 $700 billion TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program)
 January 2009
 $787 billion Stimulus
 Lowering Interest Rate
 Home buyer tax credit
 Job Creation Bill (Pending)

6.  Reason for Optimism
 Well-developed Economy
 Leadership in Auto, Telecommunication, Aerospace, IT
 Trade Deficit Lowering Slightly
 Shrank in 2008 (707.8 bn to 681.1 bn)

8.  Strong entrepreneurial culture
 Technological advancement leader
 China is forcing the U.S. to become more
efficient
 Excellent infrastructure to promote trade
 Communication is widely available

9.  Determines the direction of innovation and
economic development
 Diverse culture
 Trend setter nation
 Domestic firm global forecasting

10.  The U.S. encourages fair competition (FTC)
 Labor freedom
 Privatization

11.  Strong global position
 Judicial system
 Product performance
 Environmental safety standards

14.  Population: 1.1 billion
 GNI Per capita: $1,066.5
 Starting business – 13 procedures and 195 days
 Profit tax: 25.1%
 Closing a business: 7 years
(for resolving bankruptcies)

15.  Rural poverty and slums
 Entrenched corruption
 Poor infrastructure
 Longest national constitution

17.  Second largest English speaking
population
 Educated human capital
 Evolving politics and media –
Empowering democracy
 Impact of services industry on
overall economy

18.  Population: 191 million
 GNI Per capita: $7,351.22
 Starting business – 16 procedures and 120 days
 Profit tax: 21.3%
 Closing a business: 4 years
(for resolving bankruptcies)
 Latin America’s first super power

19.  Poverty and slums
 Poor infrastructure
 High public debt
 Unequal income distribution

21.  Brazil is far less reliant on exports
 Only 17% are exports
 Resource-rich country
 Surge in domestic consumption
 Attention from global investors

22.  Population: 1.3 billion
 GNI Per capita: $ 2774.88
 Starting business – 14 procedures and
37days
 Closing a business: 1.7 years (for resolving
bankruptcies)
 Profit tax: 6.3%

23.  Cheap Labor & Education
 Government policy
 High saving rate
 A strong manufacture base

24.  The lack of rule of Law
 Real Estate bubble

25.  China has been the fastest growing U.S. export
market among its major trading partners.
 China has become the second-largest source for
U.S. imports.
 China has become the second-largest purchaser
of U.S. Treasury securities.

26.  The Rise of China
 9% growth over past 3 decades
 20 fastest growing cities
 Industrial growth
 Top Down Growth
 Communist government
 400 million pulled out of poverty
 Future of China
 Future growth
 Government stability
 Reliance on exporting

27.  The Rise of India
 6.9% growth over past decade
 Shift in poverty and income
 Bottom up Growth
 Initiated from the people
 Language and services
 Future of India
 Expected growth
 Reliance on exporting
 Democratic government

28.  The Rise of Brazil
 5% growth rate
 Leading emerging market
 Well Planned Growth
 Top economists and international bankers
 Structural reforms and fiscal policies
 Future of Brazil
 Exports account for 13% of GDP
 Commodities exports
 Domestic focus