2. 1 Executive Summary 3-5
2 Portfolio position & Returns 6-12
3 Investment priorities and Store Performance 13-21
4 Investor Attractiveness 22-25
Contents
2
3. Executive Summary
Walmart – stays competitive despite growing competition;
Transformative strategy to drive returns in the long-term
3
4. 4
Walmart in 2017 Out performers
Under performers
Revenue Growth YoY
EBIT Margin
Current Ratio
CFO Ratio
Avg sales per store (USD Mn)
5/6
4/6
3/6
6/6
5/6
2/6
4/6
Avg sales per square foot (USD) 3/6
Total Asset Turnover 3/6
Inventory Turnover
4/6
Parameters Walmart’s
Rank
8.7%
1,074
8.6%
147%
61%
10.4%
10%
3.7x
14.6x
157%
4.2%
33%
24%
76%
1.7%
1.3x
-3.7%
2.9x
1.7%
147
ROA
SGA Margin
Earnings per Store (USD Mn) 2/6
Same-store sales growth 4/6
DPS (USD) 2/6
EPS (USD) 5/6
4.4%
-2.2%
8.0
0.14
2.4
0.5
6.1
2.1
Walmart Costco Target Kroger Macy's Dollar
Amid eroding margins, Walmart has been outperformed by Costco and Dollar who have adopted
innovative business models and store strategies, to deliver value…
5. 5
…However, aggressive investments in business transformation and Omni-channel strategy is likely
to strengthen Walmart’s competitiveness over the next decade
Improvement in same-store sales in 2018
Accelerating e-commerce growth
Share gains in fragmented grocery space
High-margin Private-label offerings
Less demographic overlap versus Target and Amazon
International divestitures helping fund domestic growth
Price investments would continue to affect margins
Price war with Costco, Target and Amazon
Aggressive investments resulting in falling bottom-line
Management of e-commerce distribution centers
Poor people-management practices
Intensifying price war amongst the U.S. retailers
"We're not going to lose on price,
but we're not out there trying to
lead the market down"
— Rodney McMullen
CEO, Kroger
"We believe that consumer
perception of value at Target has
not reflected how low our out-the-
door prices are"
— Brian Cornell
CEO, Target
"Price is at the top of our list.
When prices are going down...we
want to be the first to go down"
— Richard Galanti
CEO, Costco
"Price still matters. There are a
lot of Americans that are counting
every penny and every dime"
— Doug McMillon
CEO, Walmart
Growth accelerators for Walmart Risks to success
6. Portfolio position & Returns
Focus shifts to portfolio optimization and technology amidst
growing competition in “Big-Box” space
6
7. -25.00%
25.00%
75.00%
125.00%
175.00%
• Since 2015, Walmart has reset its growth targets and strategic priorities to resurrect its deteriorating competitive advantage through
focused M&A, technology adoption, store experience and price investments.
• Growing online grocery segment presents an opportunity to gain channel leadership vs. playing catch-up in many of the general
merchandise categories.
After a difficult stretch of 2013-16, strategic management changes have started to resurrect
Walmart’s stock in 2017-18
Walmart’s price
investment in 2017
resulted in higher store
traffic in the US
Walmart’s accelerates
investments in e-
commerce, technology
and alternative sales
channels
Slowdown in growth in
online business
Walmart reported
same-store sales
growth at the
strongest levels in
more than a decade
7
Source: S&P; Market Watch; Money Control; Walmart Annual Report 2015-2017
S&P 500, Retail Index Value Walmart Share Price
8. Walmart US
Costco
Target
Kroger
Macy's
Dollar
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
-5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
YoY Revenue Growth (2017)
Average
Revenue
Growth
(2014-16)
Positive
Momentum
Negative
Momentum
Walmart US
Costco
Target
Kroger
Macy's
Dollar
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11%
EBIT Margin (2017)
Average
EBIT
Margin
(2014-16)
Positive
Momentum
Negative
Momentum
However, as Walmart’s performance stayed tepid due to low price guarantee policy, Dollar
outperformed Walmart by almost 50% in terms of top-line growth and profitability
Dollar’s strategic positioning of stores, multiple price-points strategy and limited assortments based on popularity and preference
has helped the chain to shore-up its profit margins against Walmart and Target
8
Source: Company Annual Report 2015-2017
**Walmart US includes –
Walmart’s US and Sam’s Club
9. Amid intensifying competition in ‘big-box’ sales both Walmart and Target have trended towards becoming more of ‘volume-focused’
retailers during 2015-17. However, Dollar has adopted smart strategy combining ‘small-SKUs, frugal store layout and customer
convenience’ to sustain superior margins with strong top-line growth
Walmart US
Costco
Target
Kroger
Macy's
Dollar
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
UNDERPERFORMER
INCREMENTAL REVENUE as % of Total Revenue
EBIT
MARGIN
Peer
average
=
3.9%
Peer average = 5.3% VALUE FOCUSSED OPTIMALLY BALANCED
VOLUME FOCUSSED
Moreover, as Walmart’s position as a “value-focused” retailer has slightly deteriorated since 2015,
Dollar has gained a strong position to deliver on both value and volumes
2015
Metric
2017
Metric
9
Source: Company Annual Report 2015-2017
**Walmart US includes –
Walmart’s US and Sam’s Club
**Walmart US includes Walmart US and Sam’s Club
Size of the bubble represents revenues
10. Go where
Walmart wasn't
• Majority of Dollar’s stores in the
United States are located in rural and
suburban areas, where they cost less
to operate.
• Dollar General has more than 14,000
stores across 44 states and more
than 45% of those stores are located
in southern states, according to
Moody’s.
Product
Selection
• Dollar stores don’t carry every brand
and size, just the most popular ones
• Each store has between 10,000 and
12,000 unique products. Around
60,000 are found at a typical
supercenter like Walmart.
• Carrying a limited number of items
gives the company more buying
power with suppliers as it buys in
bulk.
Real Estate
costs
• Dollar General doesn't own its stores,
which helps to keep real estate costs
down.
• The stores are smaller — around
7,300 square feet, which is one-tenth
the size of the average Walmart store
— and have a bare-bones design.
• Not owning its real estate also allows
the company to relocate stores
quickly if they aren’t successful.
Effective
SKUs
• Instead of selling items in bulk, Dollar
sells small quantities of items to keep
the cost of each transaction down.
• This strategy limits the pricing to
below USD10 and increases margins
on per-item basis
• Also, lower ticket value serves its
core customer well, who may not be
able to shop in bulk
Dollar is capitalizing on the growing trend toward more cost-conscious shopping and is well-positioned to maintain high margins
because of purchases of closeout and overstocked items, high-margin off-brand and private labels, and down-sizing of packaging
Dollar’s key differentiators remain in devising a very targeted approach focused on price flexibility,
low real estate costs along with customer convenience and preference…
10
Source: Dollar General Annual Report 2015-2017; Seekingalpha; Business insider
11. Walmart
Costco
Target
Kroger
Macy's
Dollar
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
5% 15% 25% 35%
SG&A as % of Revenue: 2017
SG&A
as
%
of
Revenue:
2014-16
Positive
Momentum
Negative
Momentum
Walmart
Costco
Target
Kroger
Macy's
Dollar
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
3% 5% 7% 9% 11%
Return on Assets 2017
Return
on
Assets
2014-16
Positive
Momentum
Negative
Momentum
…therefore Walmart and Target lag behind Dollar significantly in terms of earnings generated from
invested capital; Costco however, maintains cost leadership amongst peers
Costco’s extremely low cost levels as compared to peers can be attributed to its wholesale type operation, superior inventory
management, low shipping costs, limited advertising costs and stores located in high visibility areas
11
Source: Company Annual Report 2015-2017
**Nos. represented are at Group level for
each company’s Global operations
12. Costco outperforms Walmart in terms of lower operating expenses driven by effective location
strategy, high employee productivity and warehouse style distribution
While both Costco and Walmart aim to provide the lowest price to customers, they are starkly different in-term of their organizational
culture, target income group and business strategy
Costco Walmart
Staffing
• The average wage at Costco is over $20 per hour and most employees are
covered by the company’s benefits plan so the employee turnover is minimal
• Costco's high wages limit employee turnover, improving productivity and
customer service
• Walmart has raised the staff wages to $10 an hour to motivate employees.
However, at Walmart there’s always been a constant concern around
worker’s quality of life and lack of employee benefits
Pricing and
SKUs
• Costco acquires low number of SKUs and offers only one brand of each
product to secure lower pricing from suppliers. Costco buys in buys in bulk
which lowers their shipping costs.
• The reason that Costco can cap its margins to a tiny 10% is because it makes
money every day through the sale of its memberships.
• The economies of scale at Walmart enable it to provide lower prices than its
competitors, but it can’t possibly drop its prices to Costco’s level because of
Costco’s subscription business model
Advertising
• Costco relies on mailer promotions for their members and on word-of-mouth
advertising making the operations lean and lowering costs
• Walmart spends an incredible amount each year on advertising. The retailer
spent USD3.1 bn in 2018 on advertising as compared to USD 2.4 bn in
2014
• In an effort to reduce costs and provide the lowest prices, Walmart is trying
to cut back on their advertising.
Store
Location
• Costco Wholesale has concentrated its business on the coasts, favoring
higher-income markets with its membership model.
• Costco stores are always located in high visibility areas. The strategy is to
maximize market reach to maximize store output
• Wal-Mart, on the other hand, has been most successful in the rural interior
of the country in regions like the South and the Midwest, where its everyday
low prices model has made it the dominant retailer
Inventory
• Costco uses a warehouse style of distribution, often putting retail store space
and warehouse space in the same location. Costco often also displays
merchandise on shipping pallets, which cuts down on costs associated with
merchandising.
• Having a Supermarket layout and huge number of stores across rural and
suburban areas in the U.S. results in higher distribution and merchandising
costs for Walmart
12
Source: Company Annual Report 2015-2017; Investopedia; eMarketer; CNN; Consumeraffairs.
13. Investment priorities and Store Performance
E-commerce and Technology drives investment agenda; Effective
Omni-channel strategy accelerating sales
13
14. Despite lackluster last 5 years, Walmart’s multi-year turnaround effort is likely to position the
company strongly over the next decade…
Phase three of Walmart’s transformation is clearly focused on improving ROIC by capitalizing on the maturity of initiatives
undertaken in Phase 1&2, positioning itself as a leader in retail-related technologies and optimizing its global portfolio.
PHASE ONE
2014-1H16
PHASE TWO
2H16-1H18
PHASE THREE
2H18+
• Supercenter growth slowed
• New disciplines to use data more effectively and autonomy given to store managers
• Improved quality and assortment of fresh products
• Higher levels of service and reduced out of stocks
• Renewed focus on EDLP and price investments to drive the productivity loop
• Various e-commerce acquisitions including jet.com, Shoebuy, Moosejaw, and Modcloth
• Expanding Omni-channel capabilities –rollout of grocery pickup and store pickup
• Free 2-day shipping on eligible orders
• Focus on competitive pricing and costs
• Evaluating the sale of other non-core assets
• Acquisition of Flipkart (India) and further partnership with JD.com (China)
• Grocery pickup and online grocery delivery expansion and increase online SKU count
• Maintain EDLP discipline even as inflationary pressures begin to appear in the business
• Building new tools and technologies to differentiate vs. competitors
14
Source: Walmart Annual Reports 2014-17
15. 01
02
03
In first two quarters of 2018, Walmart has made three major moves to strengthen its retail portfolio:
• Merge struggling British subsidiary, Asda, with Sainsbury to cash out much of its stake in the U.K. market
• Blockbuster USD16 billion investment in Flipkart to penetrate fast-growing Indian online retail market
• Proposed sale of 80% of Brazil business, which has struggled amid high inflation
Smart portfolio strategy
Walmart is redeploying capital towards beefing up its online retail capabilities. This includes –
• Mergers & Acquisitions to expand footprint in the U.S. e-commerce
• Plans to have more than 2,000 grocery pickup stations by the end of 2018
• Free two-day shipping and launch of pickup towers
E-commerce
Amazon is experimenting through its technology incubator, to enhance its customer experience
• Amazon issues several patents in 2018, which include smart shopping carts, in-store drones, blockchain
protocol and virtual reality showroom systems.
• Walmart launched a personalized shopping service in New York City called Jetblack which offers the
ability to text a shopping request and Jetblack will find and deliver the right products the same or next day
for no additional charge
Leadership in technology and Innovation
15
…as Walmart is realigning its portfolio and optimizing retail channel to achieve operational
efficiencies and ward off competition
Walmart already has built-in advantages like economies of scale and an unmatched distribution network that only became stronger
with its more recent moves. The company's efforts to refocus its business on growth markets, boost its e-commerce business, and
experiment to expand its reaches beyond its traditional customer base should make life more difficult for its competitors.
Source: Walmart Annual Reports 2014-17; Press releases; Fortune Times
16. In a stark contrast to Target’s emphasis on existing stores, Walmart’s Investments are heavily
focused on E-commerce and Technology…
• Walmart has been scaling back its total capital spending over the past several years as the total CAPEX declined at a CAGR of
4.9% during 2012-17.
• Walmart’s increased investments in e-commerce, technology, and supply chain infrastructure would likely position the company
to eventually scale profitability of its e-commerce business and support its growing digital business
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Walmart U.S.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Target
• Walmart’s total capex allocation has shifted more
heavily toward e-commerce, tech, and supply chain
investments.
o On a U.S. basis, the allocation toward e-
commerce, tech, and supply chain
investments, at 61%, is even higher than for
the overall company.
• By contrast, Target’s capex allocations have
trended in almost the exact opposite direction in
recent years as—
o Capex has increasingly been allocated
towards remodels and existing store
investments (64% of FY2018 capex, or 2.2%
of sales)
o While capex for e-commerce, supply chain
and other has decreased in recent years to
25% of capex.
Walmart U.S. versus Target Capital Expenditure
New Stores Existing Store Investment E-commerce and Technology
16
**Walmart US doesn’t include
Sam’s Club
Source: Walmart Annual Reports 2014-17; Press releases
17. As growing price-competition as eroded same store sales, Walmart has been aggressive in tapping into alternate sales channels such
as membership customer model and especially e-commerce to augment its topline and record healthy customer traffic
Walmart US
Costco
Target
Kroger
Macy's
Dollar
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
-5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0%
Total Sales CAGR: 2014-17
Same
Store
Sales
CAGR:
2014-17
Peer
average
=
2.7%
Peer average = 0.8%
…as a result of which despite the stagnating same-store sales, Walmart’s overall sales have stayed
strong as its channel expansion efforts are working more effectively than Target and Kroger
IDENTICAL-STORE DRIVEN OPTIMAL CHANNEL STRATEGY
DRIVEN BY NEW STORES/CHANNELS
UNDERPERFORMER
Target is stating away from the e-commerce
war between Walmart and Amazon and is
focusing on winning back customers by
improving buyer experience at existing stores
Dollar’s alternative channel expansion has
been very limited however low real estate
and store design costs have allowed the
chain to expand aggressively
Macy’s, despite the falling sales isn’t faring
badly as the retailer is very clear on its
strategy of “volumes with margins”
17
**Size of the bubble represents Revenues in 2017
Walmart US doesn’t include Sam’s club
Source: Walmart Annual Reports 2014-17; Press releases; eMarketer; Business Insider; CBS news; Consumerist
18. Costco’s extremely high sales productivity as compared to competitors can be attributed to its warehouse-style store design to fit
maximum assortments and membership business model which helps ensure customer traffic
Moreover, despite eroding sales Walmart maintains a healthy leads over its competition in terms of
store productivity with Costco being the only exception
Walmart US
Costco
Target
Kroger
Macy's
Dollar
(60.0)
(10.0)
40.0
90.0
140.0
- 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
**Size of the bubble represents total no. of
stores in 2017
Avg sales per square foot (USD)
Avg
sales
per
store
(USD
Mn)
-1.1%
3.1%
-1.7%
3.3%
-8.5%
0.8%
0.7%
2.9%
-1.3%
1.8%
-3.4%
0.5%
Walmart US Costco Target Kroger Macy's Dollar
Store Sales CAGR:2014-17
Sales/Store
Sales/Sq. Foot
• Costco stores are designed in a way that
encourages shoppers to wander around
• This forces the buyers to view and purchase
products that they wouldn't otherwise see
• Lack of signage within the warehouse is also
meant to encourage people to explore.
• Walmart and Kroger have revamped their
store strategy over last 3 years to driving
more sales from existing stores.
• Both retailers have stuck the philosophy that
it is cheaper to close a money-losing store
than try to turn it around
18
Source: Walmart Annual Reports 2014-17; Press releases; eMarketer; Business Insider; CBS news; Supply Chain Dive
19. Costco’s warehouses are strategically located in or near urban centers which enables the company to maintain high revenues per
facility, thereby contributing to the organization’s continued profitability.
Costco’s significant lead over Walmart in terms of earning capacity could be further explained by the
former’s focus on locating stores in high visibility areas
Walmart US
Costco
Target
Kroger
Macy's
Dollar
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0
Earnings per square foot (USD)
Earnings
per
store
(USD
Mn)
9.1
64.3
131.4
146.7
149.7
149.9
Dollar
Kroger
Target
Costco
Walmart US
Macy's
Avg store gross sq ft (‘000) in 2017
• Costco maximizes its market reach by opening stores in
busy areas which maximize store output and earnings
• Costco uses its warehouse-style stores as retail spaces
doubling as storage spaces as a result of which the chain
does not spend for extra storage space.
• Walmart is re-engineering most aspect of its business to
optimize store costs. Some of these include –
o Sending drones flying through warehouses,
equipping shoppers with their own scanners and
putting apps in the hands of efficiency-seeking
store managers
19
**Size of the bubble represents total no. of
stores in 2017
Source: Walmart Annual Reports 2014-17; Press releases; eMarketer; Business Insider; CBS news; Supermarketnews.com
20. Walmart has outperformed it’s closest competitor Target’s asset efficiency however, the company is
yet to find a strategy to combat innovative business practices of Costco and Kroger
It took Walmart about 42 days to turn its inventory in 2017, whereas Kroger and Costco required significantly lesser 25 days and 31
days respectively, demonstrating their best-in-class asset management practices and store traffic
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total Asset Turnover
Walmart Costco Target
Kroger Macy's Dollar
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Inventory Turnover
Walmart Costco Target
Kroger Macy's Dollar
Inventory practices adopted by
Walmart’s competition
• Limited Offerings: Costco and Kroger
limit offerings to about 90% less than
Walmart which reduces costs of
carrying inventory
• JIT: Costco employs a just-in-time
inventory system which shares data
directly with its largest suppliers
o Suppliers calculate re-orders in
real time and send new
inventory to replenish store
shelves
• Packaging Design: Costco works to
redesign packaging and squeeze more
bulky goods onto trucks and shelves,
reducing the number of orders to place
with suppliers
• Category Review: Kroger follows a
category review process that
incorporates viewpoints from multiple
vendors in shaping strategy and hence
strengthens relationships with suppliers.
20
Source: Walmart Annual Reports 2014-17; Press releases; eMarketer; Business Insider; CBS news; Supermarketnews.com
21. Aggressive organic and inorganic investments pose short-term challenge to Walmart’s financial
stability; Dollar and Macy’s well placed due to ‘value-focused’ business model
0.92
1.07 1.07
0.78
1.46
1.64
0.76
0.99 0.95
0.78
1.47 1.43
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
Walmart Costco Target Kroger Macy's Dollar
CURRENT RATIO
Avg. 2014-16 2017
0.45
0.25
0.43
0.36
0.40
0.66
0.36
0.38
0.52
0.24
0.38
0.61
-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
Walmart Costco Target Kroger Macy's Dollar
OCF RATIO
Avg. 2014-16 2017
• Walmart’s aggressive investments during 2014-17 to accelerate its business transformation plan has slightly hampered its
liquidity position. This was further compounded by the depleting profitability
• Walmart’s current assets during 2017 declined by 6% as compared to 2014 levels to reach USD 60.0 billion However, the current
liabilities increased by 20% for the same period
• Further, Walmart’s Operating cash flow has stagnated to register a marginal decline of 0.8% in 2017 as compared to 2014 levels.
However, this could soon be overcome by Walmart’s growing penetration in e-commerce and grocery business
21
Source: Walmart Annual Reports 2014-17; Press releases; Supermarketnews.com; Morningstar
23. For investors, Walmart continues to be an attractive investment because despite business
turbulence, its stock has remained competitive versus peers, over last 3 years…
Versus its competitors, Walmart’s stock has grown steadily to register a 20.5% growth in the 52 weeks ending September 2018. The
sharp decline in February 2018 was an outcome of slow digital sales growth slowed in 2017 Q4 at 23% year-over-year growth, after
multiple quarters of over 50% growth.
-80.0%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
STOCK PERFORMANCE INDEX
Costco Kroger
Macy's Dollar
Target Walmart
Walmart announced a slowdown in
digital sales in Q4 2017
23
Source: Walmart Annual Reports 2014-17; Press releases; S&P
24. WMT in one of the strongest competitive positions in our space and well equipped for changes in the grocery and general
merchandise categories . However, valuation along with some of the short-term fundamental drivers, puts us on the sidelines.
Walmart
Costco
Target
Kroger
Macy's
Dollar
(0.25)
0.25
0.75
1.25
1.75
2.25
2.75
1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50
Earnings per Share (USD)
Dividends
per
Share
(USD)
Peer
average
=
USD
4.6
Peer average = USD 1.6
…and regardless of the margin erosion, Walmart has managed to sustain investor interest via
healthy dividend payout
2015
Metric
2017
Metric
24
Source: Source: Walmart Annual Reports 2014-17; Press releases; S&P
**Size of the bubble represents market
capitalization in 2017 in USD bn
25. Analysts believe that amid ongoing transformation, it’s worth holding the Walmart stock as the company’s burgeoning e-commerce,
technology investments and channel expansion efforts are likely to pay-off well over the next 5-10 years
Further, analysts echo a patience-driven investor approach towards Walmart stock; However market is
really bullish for Costco and Dollar stocks
38.9%
56.7%
26.9%
38.5%
20.0%
62.1%
61.1%
40.0%
61.5%
57.7%
60.0%
34.5%
3.3%
11.5% 3.8%
20.0%
3.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Walmart Costco Target Kroger Macy's Dollar General
Analyst Ratings for Walmart and Peers as of 1st October 2018
BUY HOLD SELL
25
Source: Bloomberg