1. 2010 International Tourism
Results and Prospects for 2011
UNWTO News Conference
HQ, Madrid, Spain
17 January 2011
John G.C. Kester
Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies
Programme

2. 2010: Multi-speed recovery
International tourist arrivals, 1995-2010*
1000
935
913
894
900 877
839
795
800 755
million
695
684
700 675 675
626
602
586
600 561
528
500
400
1995 2000 2005 2010*

3. International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution
World (% change)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
+2.1% -4.0% +6.7%
-15
2008 2009 2010*
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

4. International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution
Advanced economies & Emerging economies (% change)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10 Advanced economies
-15 Emerging economies
-20
2008 2009 2010*
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

5. Growth driven by emerging destinations
550 International tourist arrivals by country of destination
500
million
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
advanced economies
emerging economies
100
50
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010*
Source: World Tourism Organization

6. Growth driven by emerging destinations
100 International tourist arrivals by country of destination
90 advanced economies
share (%)
80 emerging economies
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010*
Source: World Tourism Organization

7. No
r th
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
e rn
Eu
-5
ro p
W e
es
-0.1
te r
Ce nE
n tr u ro
-3
a l/
09*/08
Ea pe
International Tourist Arrivals
5
s te
So rn
Eu
u th
-10
ro p
e rn e
/M 4
2010*
ed
ite
-4
r. E
No u
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
2
r th
-E
as
tA -3
So s ia
14
u th
-E
as
tA
1
s ia
12
Oc
ea
-2
n ia
6
So
u th
-3
As
No ia
10
r th
Am
-6
e ri
ca
8
Ca
rib
be
-3
Ce an
4
n tr
al
Am
Multi-speed recovery
-7
e ri
So ca
8
u th
Am
-2
e ri
ca
10
No
rth
Af
3
Su ric
bs a
6
ah
a ra
nA
4
fr i c
a
7
Mi
dd
le
-6
Ea
st
14
(% change over same period of the previous year)

8. Is it just a ‘dead cat bounce’ or a real new up-trend?

9. International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution
World (million)
120
2007
110
2008
100 2009
90 2010*
80
70
2010: 935 mn
60
2009: 877 mn => 2010: +58 mn
50
2008: 913 mn => 2010: +22 mn
40
jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

10. 2010 compared to pre-crisis peak year 2008
International Tourist Arrivals (% change 2010 over pre-crisis peak year 2008)
15 10.6 12.7 10.7
7.5 7.8 8.4 7.5
10
2.5 4.2
5 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.3
0
-5 -1.6
-10 -5.5 -6.3
sia
ica
sia
ld
ia
st
nia
a
e
ica
ica
.
an
a
e
Eu
op
ric
ric
op
..
As
Ea
or
be
E.
tA
tA
er
er
er
ea
Af
Af
W
ur
ur
r.
Am
Am
Am
uth
rib
le
rn
ite
Oc
as
as
nE
nE
rth
an
dd
ste
Ca
ed
-E
-E
So
uth
rth
ar
al
No
r
ter
Mi
the
rth
uth
n/M
Ea
ntr
ah
No
es
So
No
r
al/
Ce
So
bs
No
er
W
ntr
Su
uth
Ce
So
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
International Tourist Arrivals (absolute change 2010 over pre-crisis peak year 2008, million)
30 22.4
25
20
15 10.8 7.9
10 2.9 1.5 1.7 1.4 2.9 4.2
5 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
0
-5
-10 -3.1 -2.8
-6.3
sia
sia
ld
ica
nia
ia
a
st
ica
.
e
an
ica
a
e
Eu
op
op
ric
ric
..
As
Ea
or
be
E.
tA
tA
er
er
er
ea
Af
Af
W
r
ur
r.
Eu
Am
Am
Am
uth
rib
le
rn
ite
Oc
as
as
nE
rth
an
dd
ste
Ca
ed
n
-E
-E
So
rth
uth
ar
al
No
ter
er
Mi
rth
uth
n/M
Ea
ntr
ah
rth
No
es
So
No
al/
Ce
So
bs
No
er
W
ntr
Su
uth
Ce
So
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

11. Confidence confirmed
UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts
175
Better 150
125
Equal 100
75
Prospects
50
Worse Evaluation
25
T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3 T1 T2T3
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

12. Confidence confirmed
UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts
175
150144
144140 140
Better 150 136 137143 132 140 138
131
119
125
98
Equal 100
71 72
75 Prospects (before)
Worse 50 Evaluation (after)
25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

13. Outlook 2011
International Tourist Arrivals Forecast 2011: 4% to 5%
12
10.3
10
8.0
8 6.6 6.7
change (%)
6
5.4 5.5
4 3.0
2.1
2
-0.1
0
-2
-1.6
-4
-4.0
-6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010* 2011*
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

14. International Tourism 2011 –Forecast
2010 Forecast 2011
World +6.7% 4% to 5%
Europe +3.2% 2% to 4%
Asia and the Pacific +12.6% 7% to 9%
Americas +7.7% 4% to 6%
Africa +6.4% 4% to 7%
Middle East +13.9% 7% to 10%
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

15. Actual Trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision Forecast
World
International Tourist Arrivals
1,600 Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
Actual 1995-2010*
1,400 1.6 bn
1,200 1.0 bn
1,000
million
800 935 mn
600
877 mn
400
534 mn
200
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

16. Thank you very much for your attention!
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
www.unwto.org
John Kester
Tourism Trends and Marketing Strategies Programme