Hovedtrender for fremtidig reiseetterspørsel

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Hovedtrender for fremtidig reiseetterspørsel

  1. 1. Reiselivskonferansen 2010 "Veksten må komme utenfra" ColorLine, Kiel 6 May 2010 Hovedtrender for fremtidig reiseetterspørsel – The future of Holiday Travel from Germany Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag This document is part of a personal © Martin Lohmann presentation and needs additional explanations. und Ulf Sonntag, Kiel, 2010 Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 This is about “Trends”: Which way to the future? Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  2. 2. What is a trend? Trends are: possible developments of the future from today‘s perspective, that are already visible today, and where we do have a good reason that they will continue in the future. A trend is not a temporary fashion. Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 “Reiseanalyse” (RA): The Survey ► The “Reiseanalyse” (RA) is a yearly (since 1970) representative survey, ► covering holiday travel behaviour, intentions and attitudes of Germans, ► conducted every year with a comparable set of questions and based on a random sample of 7,500 face-to-face interviews. ► Users: tour operators, hotel chains, regional, national and international tourism organisations / ministries and other organisations in the tourism industry. www.reiseanalyse.de Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  3. 3. www.reiseanalyse.de The “Reiseanalyse” Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 A trend needs a beginning. Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  4. 4. Holiday travel propensity: Stable demand on a high level % 100 90 78% 80 72% 76% 74% 75,7% 70 60 52% 50 40 30 20 10 0 4 00 2 4 6 8 9 64 74 84 94 96 98 5 0 0 0 0 0 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 Basis: population aged 14+; up to 1990 Western Germany only Source: 1970 onwards: Reiseanalyse; previous years: other Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Consumer priorities 59% Population 54% 54% 50% Holiday-makers 2008 48% 42% 42% 37% 34% 16% ia lth n s s ar ng od e e io ip k ed nc ur C ea ea i Fo Tr at on is ra /m od br H Le y i ea is ns a m t ov id or pp io co ol Sh pr at /a H Ac ic n ) on io un sh si m en Fa om (P C Question: „Here is a list of various items on which people spend money. Which of these are particularly important to you?“ Basis: population; holiday-makers in 2008 aged 14+; Source: FUR, RA 2009 Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  5. 5. Holiday Trips: we are used to take them… 1992 60% 61% 1998 2003 50% 51% 2008 46% 2009 36% 35% 33% 28% 26% 18% 16% 16% 13%13% Regular Occasional Infrequent Basis: population aged 14+; Regular = min. 1 trip p.a. in 2007-09; Occasional = 1 or 2 trips in the last 3 years; infrequent: no trip within the last 3 years Source: FUR, RA 1993, 1999, 2004, 2009 & 2010 Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 External influences Environment Policy Disasters Economy Examples Energy prices Climate change Economic crisis Demographic change Tourism demand Web 2.0 Technology Multi-optionality Tourism industry Consumer behaviour Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  6. 6. External Influences – How to they impact? External factors may have an impact on tourism demand by affecting the ability to travel (freedom, time, money, fitness) and the motivation to do so. Consumer Behavior is not a reaction to a single factor but to the whole set of influencing external factors. In addition it is driven by internal factors (e.g. motives, abilities etc.). Thus, the impact of a change in a single external factor is limited. Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 What is the basic situation? Demand for Holiday Trips in Germany On a high level It’s a priority It’s a habit Influenced by a multitude of factors Thus: Stability. Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  7. 7. Future Trends of Tourism Demand: An Evolution. Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 How to identify a trend? Taking into consideration: RA data + calculations + comparisons (other sources) + frame work conditions (as identified by reviewing the literature) Checking different views within our research team and Workshops with people from the industry Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  8. 8. The new tourism does not come as a revolution! At first sight, the long-term trends are not very fancy. But: They offer great challenges. Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Trends and their consequences 1. Structural change: new weighting of target groups 2. Motives: steady basic needs, higher expectations 3. Volume: stable, with potential for growth + risks 4. Destinations: larger regions have well-defined positions, leeway for countries/destinations 5. Information + decision: new strategies 6. Distribution: important role of professionals 7. Type of holiday: combine more types in a single holiday 8. Duration: shorter 9. Seasonality: declining 10. Expenditure: higher price consciousness 11. Accommodation: higher quality 12. Means of transport: stability with risks Strong Competition Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  9. 9. Long-term development: driving forces for demand Economic situation Prices 75 73 Number of holidays in million War & terror Climate change Epidemics Natural disasters 020 d2 Bad marketing n 66 Tre 63 60 58 1993 Economic situation 2020 Prices Motives Attitudes Demogr. change Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Good marketing Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Driving forces Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  10. 10. Trends in a framework of drivers Trends of tourism demand Supply • Structural change: new weightings of target groups Demand • Motives: steady basic needs, higher expectations Climate change • Volume: Stable, potential for growth + risks • Destinations: larger regions have well-defined positions, Innovation leeway for countries/destinations Consumer • Information + decision: new strategies power Globalization • Distribution: important role of professionals • Type of holiday: combine more types in a single holiday • Duration: shorter Demographic Extended product portfolio • Seasonality: declining change • Expenditure: higher price consciousness • Accommodation: higher quality Crises, war and • Means of transport: stability with risks terror threats Increased price sensitivity Pressure of competition Information overload Price orientation Sense of entitlement Internet/e-com Differentiation Standardization Sustainability Economy Clever customer Technology Security Source: Lohmann & Aderhold: Urlaubstrends 2020 (FUR) Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Tourism in a changing society – The „agequake“ Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  11. 11. Holiday travel propensity of different age groups 1970 - 2009 2009 % 100 1989 1979 80 1970 60 40 20 0 14 - 19 20 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 59 60 - 69 70+ Growth 1970-1990: through persons aged 20-50; 1990-2009: through persons aged 60+ Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Holiday destination choice for a German cohort 1995 and 2005 Age 55 65 1995 2005 in % 50 - 59 years 60 - 69 years Domestic (Germany) 31 32 Abroad 69 68 Source: FUR, RA 1996 & RA 2006; Destination of main holiday trip in %; n = ca. 1.000 Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  12. 12. Continuity People (cohorts) when getting older tend to stick to their once learned/acquired behavior patterns. These patterns are a result of previous experiences & life conditions. As these experiences are different for each cohort, the patterns are different, too. Thus, today‘s seniors behave differently from yesterday‘s and tomorrow‘s will be different from today‘s. We have tried to use this „rule“ in order to take a look into the future. Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Holidays of future senior citizens 75-year-olds in the year … 2007 2020 Total of age group 8,2 mn. 9,6 mn. Holiday travel propensity 64% 77% Number of travelers 5,2 mn. 7,4 mn. Destination of main holiday trip Domestic (Germany) 45% 31% Abroad 55% 69% 75-year-old = 70- to 80-year-old persons Figures for 2020 are estimated on the basis of the current data of the group aged 57 to 67 years Source: FUR, RA 2008 Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  13. 13. Volume and structure of holiday takers and holiday trips 2007 and 2020 Holiday takers Holiday trips Holiday takers Holiday trips 2007 2007 2020* 2020* % Mio. % Mio. % Mio. % Mio. Adolescents and young adults 21 10,4 20 12,6 19 9,2 17 11,0 (14 to 29 yrs) Middle-aged adults 51 24,6 50 31,6 48 23,9 48 31,1 (30 to 59 yrs) Seniors (aged 60+) 28 13,4 30 18,7 33 16,6 35 22,3 total 100 48,5 100 62,9 100 49,7 100 64,4 * Estimation using the cohort and segment rule on the basis of the RA 2008. Numbers stated for 2020 are examples. Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Continuity… … Continuity Theory of aging states that older adults will maintain the same activities, behaviours etc. as they did in their pre-senior life (cf. Atchley, 1989, 1999). … is an important factor in explaining the consumer behavior of future senior tourists, but it is not the only one. In addition we have ► New possibilities (e.g. more „disposable“ time after retirement) ► New limitations (e.g. health, fitness) ► Frame work conditions in society ► Marketing efforts of the tourism industry Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  14. 14. Demographic change Dresden Neustadt; Dec. 2008 (photo: Martin Lohmann) Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Demographic change Peru, Ausangate region, Aug. 2009 (photo: Lohmann) Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  15. 15. Customer‘s expectations: Informed customer. Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Holiday motives 2010 Relaxation Relaxation 69% Away from routine 67% Enjoyment Recuperation 63% Sun, warmth 66% Free time 57% Do nothing 56% Partner / children Spoil myself 31% Time for each other 52% Children18% Health / nature Contacts Experience nature 58% Healthy climate 51% Share experiences 40% New experiences Health 36% Acquaintances 36% Fun, amusement 60% Flirt / romance 14% New Impressions 44% Sports Travel around 38% Gentle sports 32% Other countries 35% Sports 11% Basis: population aged 14+ Motives „very important“ Source: FUR, RA 2010 Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  16. 16. Experienced traveller: Flexible “how”, inflexible “why” More demanding: every motive becomes more important! The basic motives of holidays are not going to change within the next ten years: relaxation, no stress, be free and independent, escape the daily routine and – at the same time – recuperate. No change of holiday values! Differentiation of expectations, how to implement these basic motives in a concrete holiday trip. More experiences, more pleasure. Holidays deliver impressions. Just service is not enough, „unique“ experiences with personal involvement! More in one holiday: content, velocity, intensity Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Distribution: increasing importance of the internet 68% Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 51% Jan 09 Jan 10 29% Internet access use for holiday information use for holiday booking 75% of persons online are using the internet for holiday information 50% are using the internet for holiday bookings Information and booking: new information technologies affect and change holiday travel planning. Persons regularly using the internet in daily life also use the internet for travel planning. Consequently, traditional means of booking are losing importance. Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Source: RA 2010; population Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  17. 17. Skilled consumer with low involvement - a challenge for marketing Immense offer interchangeable products need for information communication channels and information information overload less time/information The decision: not a comprehensive search-evaluate- choice process but a good-enough solution - how to get into the consideration set? When basic needs are fulfilled and under low involvement conditions, price orientation, convenience and experience orientation are getting more important. - how to get the best evaluation compared to the competitors in the consideration set? Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Norway on the German holiday market Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  18. 18. Destination trends: Multi-optionality x [love of one‘s native country + wanderlust] Interest in destinations in 2007 2010 Change Germany 44% 53% + 19% Northern Europe 22% 24% + 8% Long-haul 28% 30% + 8% Non-European Mediterranean 31% 33% + 8% Southern Europe 59% 61% + 3% Eastern Europe 26% 25% - 4% Basis: population aged 14+, more than one answer possible; source: FUR, RA 2007 & 2010 Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Holiday destinations: Structural overview 1995 33% 33% 2000 2005 2009 10% 7% 6% 4% Germany Mediterranean Alps Scandinavia Eastern Long Haul Europe Basis: all holiday trips 5+ days Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  19. 19. Stable level of holiday trips to Scandinavia % 4 3,8 3,7 3,5 3,5 3,3 3,3 3,0 3 2,7 2 1 0 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Basis: all holiday trips 5+ days Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Norway one of the winners within Scandinavia 1995 2009 % % million Denmark 55 48 1.1 Norway 22 27 0.6 Sweden 16 21 0.5 Finland 7 4 0.1 Basis: all holiday trips to Scandinavia 5+ days Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  20. 20. Growing interest for Scandinavia, biggest growth for Norway 15,7 Denmark + 11% 14,2 13,3 Norway + 42% 72% 9,4 11,8 Sweden + 37% 8,6 6,8 Finland + 31% 5,2 2010 Interest to visit destination within 4,3 the next three years Iceland/Greenland + 48% 1996 2,9 in % Basis: population 14+ years Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Interest for Norway 4x bigger than experience Norway last 3 years Norway next 3 years 3.2% (2.1 million) 13.3% (8.6 million) of the German population (aged 14+) of the German population (aged 14+) are have been to Norway on holiday or "almost definitely planning“ or "generally short holiday in the years 07-09 considering" to spend a (short-) holiday in Norway in the years 2010-2012. Interest for Norway 4x bigger than experience space for marketing Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  21. 21. Rising interest for Norway on the German market Interested in Norway next 3 y ears been to Norway in the past 3 y ears % 15 13,2 11,9 11,1 10 8,9 8,1 7,8 7,6 5 2,8 3,2 2,3 2,3 2,5 1,7 1,9 0 RA 98 RA 00 RA 02 RA 04 RA 06 RA 08 RA 10 Basis: population 14+ years Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 The interest to travel to Norway is mainly „soft“ Norway last 3 years Norway next 3 years 3.2% (2.1 million) 13.3% (8.6 million) of the German population (aged 14+) of the German population (aged 14+) are have been to Norway on holiday or "almost definitely planning“ or "generally short holiday in the years 07-09 considering" to spend a (short-) holiday in Norway in the years 2010-2012. 14% (1.3 million) 86% (7.3 million) ‘hard potential’ Norway ‘soft potential’ Norway (“almost definitely planning”) (“generally considering”) Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  22. 22. Most prospective travellers have no recent experience with Norway Norway last 3 years Norway next 3 years 3.2% (2.1 million) 13.3% (8.6 million) of the German population (aged 14+) of the German population (aged 14+) are have been to Norway on holiday or "almost definitely planning“ or "generally short holiday in the years 07-09 considering" to spend a (short-) holiday in Norway in the years 2010-2012. 13% (1.1 million) 87% (7.5 million) ‘potential repeater’ Norway ‘NEW potential’ Norway (“interest AND experience”) (“interest WITH NO experience”) Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Fierce competitive situation of Norway Number of potential destinations 2010-2012 German population 6,4 Scandinavia-Interest 10-12 13,6 Norway-Interest 10-12 17,8 broad interest of Norway-Interested in different destinations fierce competitive situation Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  23. 23. Prospective Norway guests have been to many countries in the past 3 years Germany 61 Spain 29 Austria 21 Italy 19 Denmark 15 72% Norway 13 France 13 Turkey 12 Switzerland 11 Netherlands 10 Greece 8 Croatia 7 Sweden 6 in % Basis: Persons interested in visiting Norway within the next three years Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Prospective Norway guests are interested in a lot of destinations beside Norway Norway 100 Germany 69 Sweden 66 Denmark 62 Spain 72% 61 Italy 57 Austria 54 France 50 Greece 48 Finland 44 Switzerland 43 Turkey 42 USA 37 in % Basis: Persons interested in visiting Norway within the next three years Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  24. 24. Prospective Norway guests are interested in a lot of different kinds of holiday Holiday Apartment 67 All-Inclusive 67 Sun+Beach 67 Nature 61 Holiday Home 72% 61 Experience 57 Relax 56 City 51 Active 47 Round 45 Family 39 Winter/Snow 36 Winter/Sun 33 Cruise 32 in % Basis: Persons interested in visiting Norway within the next three years Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Norway on the German market ► Stable demand for Scandinavia – market share 3.5% ► Within Scandinavia, Norway is one of the winners in the past decade ► Interest for Norway in Germany is 4x bigger than the experience ‘space for marketing’ ► Norway-Interest and -Experience are growing ► Norway-Interested are mainly ‘soft and new potential’ important fact to consider in marketing planning ► Fierce competitive situation for Norway Main competitors are Germany, Scandinavia, Mediterranean ► The kinds of holiday, potential Norway-guests are interested show … CHANCES (holiday homes, nature, experience, action, round) THREATS (AI, sun+beach, winter/sun) Norway in a good position on the German market, yet in a fierce competition with holiday destinations around the world Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  25. 25. Short cruises Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Interest for short cruises 13x bigger than experience Short cruise last 3 yrs Short cruise next 3 yrs 1.1% (0.7 million) 13.7% (8.9 million) of the German population (aged 14+) of the German population (aged 14+) are have been on a short cruise in the "almost definitely planning“ or "generally years 07-09 considering" to go on a short cruise in the years 2010-2012. Interest for short cruises 13x bigger than experience (!!) new segment with huge market potential Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  26. 26. „Exploding“ interest for short cruises on the German market Interested in Sho rt-Cruises next 3 years been o n a Sho rt-Cruise in the past 3 years % 15 13,7 10 8,5 7,9 8,3 7,7 5 0,8 0,9 1,1 0,4 0,6 0 RA 06 RA 07 RA 08 RA 09 RA 10 Basis: population 14+ years Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 The interest to go on short cruises is mainly „soft“ Short cruise last 3 yrs Short cruise next 3 yrs 1.1% (0.7 million) 13.7% (8.9 million) of the German population (aged 14+) of the German population (aged 14+) are have been on a short cruise in the "almost definitely planning“ or "generally years 07-09 considering" to go on a short cruise in the years 2010-2012. 13% (1.2 million) 87% (7.7 million) ‘hard potential’ ‘soft potential’ (“almost definitely planning”) (“generally considering”) Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  27. 27. Almost all prospective travellers have no recent experience with short cruises Short cruise last 3 yrs Short cruise next 3 yrs 1.1% (0.7 million) 13.7% (8.9 million) of the German population (aged 14+) of the German population (aged 14+) are have been on a short cruise in the "almost definitely planning“ or "generally years 07-09 considering" to go on a short cruise in the years 2010-2012. 6% (0.5 million) 94% (8.4 million) ‘potential repeater’ ‘NEW potential’ (“interest AND experience”) (“interest WITH NO experience”) Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 3.9 million are distinct short cruise potential with no interest in cruises 44% (3.9 million) short cruise and NO cruise 56% (5.0 million) short cruise and cruise Short cruise potential 2010-2012 total: Cruise potential 8.9 million 2010-2012 total: 9.9 million Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  28. 28. 2.5 million are interested in short cruises AND Norway 72% (6.4 million) short 71% (8.1 million) Norway cruise and NO Norway and NO short cruise 28% (2.5 million) short cruise and Norway 29% (2.5 million) Norway and short cruise Short cruise potential Norway potential 2010-2012 total: 2010-2012 total: 8.9 million 8.6 million Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Short cruises on the German market ► Growing interest for short cruises ► Big potential – quite little actual demand exciting ‘new’ segment which has yet to find its ‘place’ on the market ► Consequently: almost only ‘soft’ and ‘new’ potential ► Almost half of the potential is not interested in ‘cruises’ A big part of the short cruise potential is a quite distinct segment ► Norway and short cruises fit quite well together: interest for each other more as double as high as in population Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  29. 29. Market perspective 2020 Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Trends as managerial tasks Trends Tourism industry • Increasing capacities • Strong competition • Professionalisation As a result of the • Bigger industry units market situation: • Standardisation of • Consumer power products • New information search and • others travel decisions patterns Framework dynamics • Fragmentation of target groups • Climate change • High expectations with an • Demographic change „instant gratification“ attitude • Technological change • Consumers’ paradox: be different • others Tourism demand & meet the standards • Volume: stagnation • Price sensitivity • Structure: new • Flexible consumers weighting of target groups • Convenience orientation • stable motivation • others • new competences • others Source: Lohmann (2009) Challenges, opportunities & tasks for the tourism industry management Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010
  30. 30. What was it? ► Stable demand for holiday trips in Germany to be expected ► Structural dynamics in a huge but very fragmented market ► Skilled consumers ► Multi-optionality: There is always an alternative for the tourist… ► A lot of potential tourists for Norway (create more awareness in Germany vs. make those, who are interested, realize their plans?) ► Similar situation for Short Cruises ► Norway and short cruises fit quite well together: interest for each other more as double as high as in population Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010 Paper & Authors This paper has been prepared for Reiselivskonferansen 2010 "Veksten må komme utenfra„ in Kiel, 6 May 2010 Martin Lohmann is Professor for Consumer Behaviour with the Leuphana University in Lüneburg, Germany (www.leuphana.de), Visiting Professor at WU Wien (www.wu.ac.at), and Managing Director of N.I.T., the Institute of Tourism Research in Northern Europe in Kiel, Germany (www.nit-kiel.de). He is scientific consultant of FUR (www.fur.de). Ulf Sonntag is Associate Director and Head of Market Research of N.I.T., the Institute of Tourism Research in Northern Europe in Kiel, Germany (www.nit-kiel.de). He coordinates the research and analyses performances of FUR (www.fur.de). Contacts: lohmann@nit-kiel.de ulf.sonntag@nit-kiel.de FUR - Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.V. Fleethörn 23; D – 24103 Kiel, www.reiseanalyse.de Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010

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