The UNPS 2015/16 is the fifth wave of Uganda's national panel survey. Key findings include: - Labor force participation increased, with 57% of non-workers from 2011/12 working in 2015/16. - Teacher absence remained high, especially in Central and Northern Uganda at 20% each. - Drug stockouts increased substantially in Health Center IIs, from 65% to 84%. - Poverty dynamics varied by region, with 29.8% of households in Northern Uganda moving in/out of poverty.

1. UGANDA NATIONAL PANEL SURVEY
2015/16 (WAVE V)
November 2016
By
Vincent Fred Ssennono
Uganda Bureau of Statistics

2. OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
• Background
• Objectives of the survey
• Findings from the survey
• Summary

3. 3

4. BACKGROUND
• The UNPS 2015/16 is the fifth in the series of Panel
Household Surveys that uses the 2005/06 Uganda
National Household Survey (UNHS) as the Baseline.
• The UNPS is a multi-topic household survey that is
undertaken annually over a twelve-month period.
• The UNPS produces annual estimates of outcomes in
key policy areas as well as providing a platform for
the experimentation and assessment of national
policies and programs.

5. BACKGROUND-CONT’D
UNPS is part of:
• UBOS’ Long term Census and Survey Plan covering a
10-year period which in turn is part of:
• The Plan for National Statistical Development (PNSD)
that provides a framework for statistical
improvement across Ministries, Departments and
Agencies (MDAs)
• The UNPS compliments other data collection
efforts (e.g. UNHS, UDHS, NSDS etc.)

6. OBJECTIVES OF THE UNPS
Overall objective
• To collect high quality data on key outcome indicators
such as Poverty, Service Delivery and Employment
among others; in order to monitor Government’s
development programmes.
Specific Objectives
• To provide information for monitoring the NDP and
other development frameworks.

7. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES CONT’D:-
• To provide high quality nationally representative
information on income dynamics at the
household level as well as annual Consumption
Expenditure estimates to monitor poverty in
years between the Uganda National Household
Surveys (UNHS)
• To supply regular data on agriculture in order to
characterize and monitor the performance of the
Agricultural Sector.

8. SURVEY COMPONENTS
The 2015/16 UNPS administered the following
modules:
• Household (Core module)
• Woman
• Agriculture
• Community/ Facility module

9. SURVEY DESIGN
• The UNPS is a quantitative survey
• The sampling frame was the 7,400 households
interviewed during the 2005/06 UNHS
• A sample of 3,200 households was selected for the
Panel Survey.
• Consequently, the same sample size was maintained in
2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12 rounds of surveys.
• In 2013/14 UNPS (Wave IV), one-third of the 2011/12
sample was dropped and replaced with a ‘fresh’ one
while two-thirds was retained.
• This sample was maintained for the 2015/16 UNPS
(Wave V)

10. SURVEY DESIGN- CONT’D
• In 2013/14 and 2015/16 round (Wave IV &
Wave V), all Core Household Members (Head,
Spouse and Biological children (15+yrs) were
tracked incase any such household member had
moved either to form a new household or join
another existing household.
• The 2015/16 UNPS provides estimates reliable at
the national, rural-urban level and regional
levels.

11. Sample Attrition
Of the 17,495 individuals from wave 4 that were
to be interviewed in wave 5, 16,748 (96%) were
found and interviewed while 747 (4%) had
attrited (dropped out).
In addition, 2,498 individuals joined / re-joined
the panel during wave 5
In total 3300 households were covered in wave
5

12. Sample Attrition (%)
8
10
11
34
36
No competent respondent
available
Not at home for extended
period
Moved beyond survey scope
Refused (but found)
Others*

13. SURVEY FINDINGS

14. Selected characteristics of
household population

15. 65 62
49
62 70
59 67 64
35 38
51
38 30
41 33 36
Rural Urban Kampala Central Eastern NorthernWestern Total
Residence Region
Male Head Female Head
PANEL HHs by SEX OF HEAD (%)

16. Average Household size of
Panel HHs
4.9
4.1
4.6 4.5
5.3
4.7 4.5 4.7
Rural Urban Kampala Central Eastern Northern Western National

17. Highlights of Labor force
characteristics

18. Changes in Activities of Persons (14-
64 yrs)-(%)
43
14 8
46
79
34
11 7
58
Not Working
(11/12)
Self-Employed
(11/12)
Paid Employee
(11/12)
Not Working (15/16) Self-Employed (15/16) Paid Employee (15/16)

19. Changes in sector of
Employment(%)
90
28 24
62
2
7
11
74
Agriculture (13/14) Manufacturing (13/14) Services (13/14)
Agriculture (15/16) Manufacturing(15/16) Services (15/16)

20. Education and Health
services

21. Children 6-12 years who left
school by 2015/16 (%)
11
17
14
Male-were in
school 09/10
Female-were in
school 09/10
National-were in
school 09/10

22. Primary school teacher absence in
the classroom
9
2
7 5
14
9 9
14
6
20
3
20
5
14
Government Others Central Eastern Northern Western Uganda
2013/14 2015/16

23. Stock-Out of Six Tracer
Drugs (%)
65 62 61
84
69
74
HC II HC III National
Last 2 months(13/14) Last 2 months (15/16)

24. Provision of Mama Kits By
Gov’t HF (%)
33
29
42
2011/12 2013/14 2015/16

25. Health worker absence from duty –
2015/16 (%)
45
24
38
56
37
42 43
44
41 40 41
46 45 44
Government Others Central Eastern Northern Western Uganda
2013/14 2015/16

26. Household expenditure and Poverty
dynamics

27. Share of Household Expenditure-
2013/14 to 2015/16 (%)
2013/14 2015/2016
Food 45.5 45.6
Rent, fuel & energy 17.7 20.2
Education 10.7 12.9
Transport & communication 8.1 5.2
Household & personal goods 5.2 5.1
Health 4.4 3.3
Non-consumption expenditure 2.7 2
Drinks & tobacco 2.1 1.9
Clothing & footwear 2.1 2
Other consumption expenditure 1.4 1.8
Total 100.0 100.0

28. Consumption Expenditure Mobility
by Quintile, 2013/14-2015/16 (%)
2013/14 2015/16
Poorest
20%
2 3 4
Top
20% Total
Poorest 20% 9.3 5.3 3.2 1.8 0.4 20
2 5.1 5.6 4.3 3.5 1.5 20
3 2.3 5.9 4.1 5.7 2.0 20
4 1.8 2.3 5.6 4.9 5.3 20
Top 20% 0.4 0.6 1.3 3.7 14.1 20
Total 20 20 20 20 20 100

29. Poverty Dynamics from 2013/14
through to 2015/16 (%)
12.2
2.9
9.8
15.6
5.8
13.1
8.1
6.5
7.7
64.1
84.8
69.4
Rural
Urban
Uganda
Chronically poor Moved in poverty Moved out poverty Never poor

30. Household Poverty Dynamics -2013/14
& 2015/16 (%)
10.9
9.4
11.8
13.8
6.2
8.5
71.1
68.3
Female Headed
Male Headed
Chronically poor Moved out of poverty Slipped into Poverty Never poor

31. Household Poverty Dynamics by Region
(2013/14 to 2015/16) (%)
1.2
15.5
23.8
3.7
6.7
22.7
17.5
7.9
2.5
10.3
12.3
8.0
89.5
51.4
46.5
80.5
Central
Eastern
Northern
Western
Chronically poor Moved out of poverty Slipped into Poverty Never poor

32. Poverty Dynamics by Education of
HH Head (%)
23.4
10.3
6.5
2.7
17.4
14.0
18.0
6.8
5.6
10.3
10.1
4.4
53.5
65.5
65.3
86.1
No formal education
Some primary
Completed primary
Secondary and above
Chronically poor Moved out of poverty Slipped into Poverty Never poor

33. Agriculture and related
services

34. Acquisition of Agricultural Land
(Panel HHs)-%
30 30 31
67 69 67
2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
Purchased Inherited/Received As Gift Others

35. Land Use by Panel
Households (%)
85 82 79
11 9 12
2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
Cultivated Fallow Pasture Others

36. Use of Irrigation by Panel HHs
(%)
0.8
1.6
1.4
2011/12 2013/14 2015/16

37. Use of Seeds by Panel HHs (%)
91 92 92
9 8 8
2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
Traditional Improved

38. Received Advice from NAADS
(%)
2011/12 2013/14 2015/16
Residence
Rural 28.1 20.8 12.7
Urban 26.7 20.3 11.5
Region
Kampala 12.5 4.8 0.0
Central 22.0 16.9 8.1
Eastern 25.0 20.2 16.1
Northern 37.0 24.7 16.4
Western 24.8 20.0 8.1
National 28.0 20.8 12.6

39. Production (‘000
tonnes)
2013/14 2015/16
Maize 1,920 2,250
Millet 110 100
Sorghum 50 60
Beans 620 580
Groundnuts 120 150
Sweet potatoes 1,090 890
Cassava 1,620 1,420
Banana 5,900 5,360

40. Summary
• 57% of persons who were not working in 2011/12 were working in 2015/16
• Teacher absence in the classroom continued to be a problem with the highest
levels experienced in Central and Northern Uganda (20% each)
• Percentage of HCIIs facing drug stock-outs rose from 65% in 2013/14 to 84%
in 2015/16
• 9% Male headed & 11% female headed households remained chronically
poor during the period 2013/14 and 2015/16
• 29.8% of households in Northern Uganda moved into and out of poverty while
23.8% remained chronically poor.
• Majority of the chronically poor are from households where the household
heads have no education.
• Use of irrigation is still low and did not change between 2013/14 & 2015/16.

41. Way Forward
For More Information
Contact: Director Socio-Economic Surveys
Email: ubos@ubos.org
Tel: +256-414-706069

42. THANK YOU