Union Budget- MACRO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK STATEMENT 2020-21
Highlights & Key features of budget 2020-21 pdf. Presented by Hon FM Nirmala Sitharaman
Sources: https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/doc/frbm1.pdf
In the July-August 2014 Issue of Economy Matters, we track the economic developments in US and China in Global Trends. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Fiscal, Trade & Monetary Policy. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the Implications of Jobless Growth. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on Textiles Sector. Special Feature discusses the importance of Hospitality Sector in India.
M&A dealscape highlights the M&A deal activity in India over the last 4 quarters (July 2017 to June 2018), together with insights on macro-economic scenario and key deal rationales by sector.
In August-September, 2014 issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recently held G20 Summit; movement in oil prices and Ukraine situation in the section on Global Trends. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation and Trade. In the section on Taxation, the urgency of implementing GST in India is discussed. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the Food Processing Industry. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on improving investment in Infrastructure.
The Make in India initiative of the government which lays emphasis on domestic manufacturing, indigenization and import substitution, is expected to pave the way for making the Indian defence sector self-sufficient.Encouragingly, the Indian industry is now actively engagedand is partnering with the government in building a modern and best-in-class defence systems, equipment and components which should strengthen our forces and make the country more self-reliant. The formation of the Society of Indian Defence Manufacturers (SIDM) as an apex body of the Indian defence industry is critical in this regard. SIDM is expected to play a proactive role as an advocate, catalyst and facilitator for building the growth and capability of the defence industry in India. Given the rising importance of buttressing the Make in India programme for expanding the capacity of the Indian defence sector, in this issue of Economy Matters, a few SIDM office bearers and defence experts present their insights into this crucial topic.
UK economy is on the mend. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation, monetary policy, Fiscal & BoP Scenario. In Corporate Performance, we analyse the latest data for 4QFY14. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Ease of Doing Business in India. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on Reviving Growth.
In the July-August 2014 Issue of Economy Matters, we track the economic developments in US and China in Global Trends. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Fiscal, Trade & Monetary Policy. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the Implications of Jobless Growth. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on Textiles Sector. Special Feature discusses the importance of Hospitality Sector in India.
M&A dealscape highlights the M&A deal activity in India over the last 4 quarters (July 2017 to June 2018), together with insights on macro-economic scenario and key deal rationales by sector.
In August-September, 2014 issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recently held G20 Summit; movement in oil prices and Ukraine situation in the section on Global Trends. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation and Trade. In the section on Taxation, the urgency of implementing GST in India is discussed. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the Food Processing Industry. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on improving investment in Infrastructure.
The Make in India initiative of the government which lays emphasis on domestic manufacturing, indigenization and import substitution, is expected to pave the way for making the Indian defence sector self-sufficient.Encouragingly, the Indian industry is now actively engagedand is partnering with the government in building a modern and best-in-class defence systems, equipment and components which should strengthen our forces and make the country more self-reliant. The formation of the Society of Indian Defence Manufacturers (SIDM) as an apex body of the Indian defence industry is critical in this regard. SIDM is expected to play a proactive role as an advocate, catalyst and facilitator for building the growth and capability of the defence industry in India. Given the rising importance of buttressing the Make in India programme for expanding the capacity of the Indian defence sector, in this issue of Economy Matters, a few SIDM office bearers and defence experts present their insights into this crucial topic.
UK economy is on the mend. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation, monetary policy, Fiscal & BoP Scenario. In Corporate Performance, we analyse the latest data for 4QFY14. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Ease of Doing Business in India. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on Reviving Growth.
CII’s flagship monthly publication Economy Watch has been now revamped and rechristened as ‘Economy Matters’. Apart from encompassing all the key features of the old version, the new issue also carries a new section on Corporate Profitability to keep readers abreast about the latest trends in corporate performance. The ‘Economy Matters’ brought out by CII Research seeks to provide an in-depth update on current trends in the domestic and international economy and helps in tracking policy developments and understanding industry dynamics.
China’s economy is besieged with several problems currently, which have had adverse repercussions for the global growth too. The rebalancing towards domestic consumption from an export and investment-led growth path has not been as successful as was planned. Elsewhere, in the last few months, Central Banks of three emerging economies viz. Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil have gone against the tide in raising interest rates to support their currencies and curb inflationary pressures. We discuss this in detail in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the progress of the monsoons so far, given its importance in shaping the domestic growth outlook. Additionally, the fiscal situation in the first-half of the current fiscal is also scrutinized.
In Corporate Performance, we examine the financial performance of firms in the first quarter of the current year, in order to decipher the evolving trends.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Textiles, one of the leading sectors of the Indian economy. It contributes significantly to the industrial output, employment generation and foreign exchange earnings in India. However, currently, the sector is facing challenges due to various issues related to FTAs, technology, labour and power that are crucial for its growth. We discuss the sector’s challenges and suggest measures to bolster its output.
In the Special Article, we discuss the benefits and concerns emanating from the promulgation of an ordinance on National Food Security by the government. The ordinance provides a legal entitlement to persons belonging to specified households to receive specific quantities of food grains at subsidised prices from the state. If implemented properly, the ordinance will address the concerns on hunger and malnutrition. However, there are some serious challenges to its implementation. Some of the challenges are in terms of distribution and logistics, rising food subsidy outgo, and increasing food inflation. How well the government is able to address these challenges will be critical in scripting the success of the National Food Security Ordinance.
India's annual economic growth slumped in the January-March quarter to a nine-year low of 5.3% as the manufacturing sector shrank and a fall in the rupee to a record low suggests the economy remains under pressure in the current quarter.
Focus of the Month: Employment and Skill Development
One of the key factors driving India’s impressive growth
rate is the demographic dividend, based on a workforce
that will continue to grow into the middle of the century
and power our saving and investment rates. Moreover,
the evolving demographics unambiguously point out that
India will remain a young nation and the largest contributor
to the global workforce over the next few decades
- an exceptional strength compared to the rapidly ageing
population in the Western countries, and that in China,
owing to its one-child policy. The rise in its working-age
population, however, is necessary but not sufficient for
India to sustain its economic growth. If India does not
create enough jobs and its workers are not adequately
prepared for those jobs, its demographic dividend may
turn into a liability. While employment is one side of the
challenge, employability is the obverse. The skill development
endeavor has to be accelerated and greatly scaled
up in a joint effort of Government, industry and civil society.
In view of the increasing importance of both employment
and skill development of labour force in India,
in this month’s Focus of the Month, we cover this crucial
issue in detail.
The Union Finance Minister Shri Arun Jaitley tabled the Economic Survey 2016-17 today, the first day of the Budget Session of the Parliament. The Economic Survey says that the adverse impact of demonetisation on GDP growth will be transitional and the economy will recover with remonetisation. The Survey states that once the cash supply is replenished, which is likely to be achieved by end of March 2017, the economy would revert to normal. The GDP growth in 2017-18, as per the survey, is projected to be in the range of 6¾-7½ percent.
The Survey suggests a few measures to maximise long-term benefits and minimise short-term costs. One, fast remonetisation and early elimination of withdrawal limits. This would reduce GDP growth deceleration and cash hoarding. Two, continued impetus to digitalisation while ensuring that this transition is gradual and inclusive, and appropriately balances the costs and benefits of cash versus digitalisation. Three, following up demonetisation by bringing land and real estate into the GST. Four, reducing tax rates and stamp duties.
This is an analysis and brief overview document on the Survey
Provisional estimates of GDP for fy 2018 19 and final estimates of GDP for fy...Md. Mamun Hasan Biddut
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh GDP grew by 5.24 per cent during 2019-20 raising the per capita income by US$155 to US$2,064. This growth rate has been achieved when the global economy is contracting, in particular the whole developed world where according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) major economies are expected to contract by 2.4 per cent in 2020. The World Bank GDP projection for 2020 predicts a fall by 2.5 per cent for developing countries and 1.8 per cent for developed countries. Even the neighboring country India recorded a contraction of the economy by 23.9 per cent during the April-June quarter of 2020.
This growth rate is also much above the economic growth forecast provided for Bangladesh by the World Bank (WB) at 1.6 percent, International Monetary Fund (IMF) at 3.8 percent and Asian Development Bank (ADB) at 4.5 percent for 2020. While these forecast figures are for the calendar year 2020, but the BBS growth figure is for the 2019-20 financial year. In fact, the Bangladesh government believes that the economy is on track to achieve 8.2 per cent growth rate in 2020-21 and also expects the economy to rebound at a higher pace than before after the pandemic is over (FE, August, 28). There is an implicit message that the economy is not only trekking back to pre-pandemic levels but also will surpass that.
Bangladesh policy makers usually focus of growth of GDP but not discuss of distribution of growth and the budget is not focus of growing inequality created due to un-proportionate
distribution of budget expenditure and regressive taxation policy bias toward well-to-do section of the society.
CII’s flagship monthly publication Economy Watch has been now revamped and rechristened as ‘Economy Matters’. Apart from encompassing all the key features of the old version, the new issue also carries a new section on Corporate Profitability to keep readers abreast about the latest trends in corporate performance. The ‘Economy Matters’ brought out by CII Research seeks to provide an in-depth update on current trends in the domestic and international economy and helps in tracking policy developments and understanding industry dynamics.
China’s economy is besieged with several problems currently, which have had adverse repercussions for the global growth too. The rebalancing towards domestic consumption from an export and investment-led growth path has not been as successful as was planned. Elsewhere, in the last few months, Central Banks of three emerging economies viz. Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil have gone against the tide in raising interest rates to support their currencies and curb inflationary pressures. We discuss this in detail in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the progress of the monsoons so far, given its importance in shaping the domestic growth outlook. Additionally, the fiscal situation in the first-half of the current fiscal is also scrutinized.
In Corporate Performance, we examine the financial performance of firms in the first quarter of the current year, in order to decipher the evolving trends.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Textiles, one of the leading sectors of the Indian economy. It contributes significantly to the industrial output, employment generation and foreign exchange earnings in India. However, currently, the sector is facing challenges due to various issues related to FTAs, technology, labour and power that are crucial for its growth. We discuss the sector’s challenges and suggest measures to bolster its output.
In the Special Article, we discuss the benefits and concerns emanating from the promulgation of an ordinance on National Food Security by the government. The ordinance provides a legal entitlement to persons belonging to specified households to receive specific quantities of food grains at subsidised prices from the state. If implemented properly, the ordinance will address the concerns on hunger and malnutrition. However, there are some serious challenges to its implementation. Some of the challenges are in terms of distribution and logistics, rising food subsidy outgo, and increasing food inflation. How well the government is able to address these challenges will be critical in scripting the success of the National Food Security Ordinance.
India's annual economic growth slumped in the January-March quarter to a nine-year low of 5.3% as the manufacturing sector shrank and a fall in the rupee to a record low suggests the economy remains under pressure in the current quarter.
Focus of the Month: Employment and Skill Development
One of the key factors driving India’s impressive growth
rate is the demographic dividend, based on a workforce
that will continue to grow into the middle of the century
and power our saving and investment rates. Moreover,
the evolving demographics unambiguously point out that
India will remain a young nation and the largest contributor
to the global workforce over the next few decades
- an exceptional strength compared to the rapidly ageing
population in the Western countries, and that in China,
owing to its one-child policy. The rise in its working-age
population, however, is necessary but not sufficient for
India to sustain its economic growth. If India does not
create enough jobs and its workers are not adequately
prepared for those jobs, its demographic dividend may
turn into a liability. While employment is one side of the
challenge, employability is the obverse. The skill development
endeavor has to be accelerated and greatly scaled
up in a joint effort of Government, industry and civil society.
In view of the increasing importance of both employment
and skill development of labour force in India,
in this month’s Focus of the Month, we cover this crucial
issue in detail.
The Union Finance Minister Shri Arun Jaitley tabled the Economic Survey 2016-17 today, the first day of the Budget Session of the Parliament. The Economic Survey says that the adverse impact of demonetisation on GDP growth will be transitional and the economy will recover with remonetisation. The Survey states that once the cash supply is replenished, which is likely to be achieved by end of March 2017, the economy would revert to normal. The GDP growth in 2017-18, as per the survey, is projected to be in the range of 6¾-7½ percent.
The Survey suggests a few measures to maximise long-term benefits and minimise short-term costs. One, fast remonetisation and early elimination of withdrawal limits. This would reduce GDP growth deceleration and cash hoarding. Two, continued impetus to digitalisation while ensuring that this transition is gradual and inclusive, and appropriately balances the costs and benefits of cash versus digitalisation. Three, following up demonetisation by bringing land and real estate into the GST. Four, reducing tax rates and stamp duties.
This is an analysis and brief overview document on the Survey
Provisional estimates of GDP for fy 2018 19 and final estimates of GDP for fy...Md. Mamun Hasan Biddut
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh GDP grew by 5.24 per cent during 2019-20 raising the per capita income by US$155 to US$2,064. This growth rate has been achieved when the global economy is contracting, in particular the whole developed world where according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) major economies are expected to contract by 2.4 per cent in 2020. The World Bank GDP projection for 2020 predicts a fall by 2.5 per cent for developing countries and 1.8 per cent for developed countries. Even the neighboring country India recorded a contraction of the economy by 23.9 per cent during the April-June quarter of 2020.
This growth rate is also much above the economic growth forecast provided for Bangladesh by the World Bank (WB) at 1.6 percent, International Monetary Fund (IMF) at 3.8 percent and Asian Development Bank (ADB) at 4.5 percent for 2020. While these forecast figures are for the calendar year 2020, but the BBS growth figure is for the 2019-20 financial year. In fact, the Bangladesh government believes that the economy is on track to achieve 8.2 per cent growth rate in 2020-21 and also expects the economy to rebound at a higher pace than before after the pandemic is over (FE, August, 28). There is an implicit message that the economy is not only trekking back to pre-pandemic levels but also will surpass that.
Bangladesh policy makers usually focus of growth of GDP but not discuss of distribution of growth and the budget is not focus of growing inequality created due to un-proportionate
distribution of budget expenditure and regressive taxation policy bias toward well-to-do section of the society.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Economy: 28th November 2020Sam Ghosh
Indian economy entered a technical recession with two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction in Q2 of FY 2020-21. Results released by the National Statistical Office shows that the GDP of India during the H1 of FY 2020-21 contracted by 15.7% at Constant (2011-12) Prices and 13.3% at Current Prices. While quarterly GDP in Q2 FY 2020-21 in rupee terms improved from Q1 FY 2020-21 by 23% at Constant Prices and 24% at Current Prices, it is still 7.5% and 4% lower than Q2 of FY 2019-20 at Constant and Current Prices respectively. The contraction was caused by a drastic drop in private consumption (which contributes around 60% of Indian GDP) and a drop in gross fixed capital formation.
The policy repo rate has been reduced by 115 basis points from the beginning of 2020 to record low levels. Apart from that, RBI is injecting liquidity through various Open Market Operations and Long Term Repo Operations. Currency with the public increased by ~20% from the end of 2019 to the end of October 2020. We can safely say that the Indian economy is flushed with liquidity.
Consumer inflation remains above the policy range of 4%+2%, and with a GDP contraction, the Indian economy is dealing with stagflation.
On the fiscal front, total monthly receipts remained lower than the same period last year for the whole Q1 and Q2 (April - September) FY 2020-21. October receipts show signs of improvement. Fiscal expenditure on the other hand was maintained at the same levels of FY 2019-20 in FY 2020-21 till October. The fiscal deficit stood at 119.7% of the Budget Estimates as of October 2020 due to lower receipts.
Credit growth remains sluggish especially due to lower credit uptake by the industry. Credit demand for smaller companies was low from the beginning of fiscal 2020-21 which improved after August. Credit uptake by the large corporates dropped after July 2020.
Household savings increased dramatically from Rs.5.32 lakh crores in Q4 of FY 2019-20 to Rs. 8.16 lakh crores in Q1 of FY 2020-21 - a more than 50% increase. Most of the increase in household savings resulted from an aversion to liabilities. It signifies that the households turned conservative about their finances to deal with impending financial distress.
The unemployment rate shot-up in April and May 2020 above 20% and moderated to below 10% levels after June 2020. Employees' Provident Fund records show healthy job creation in September 2020.......
Federal Budget FY21: A Barrier Eclipsing ReliefSCPL Capital
FY21 : Key Budgetary Targets
GDP is expected to grow 2.2% vs. -0.4% in FY20e
Inflation to clock in at 6.5% as compared to 10.9% in FY20e
PSDP allocation of 1.3trn (up 13% YoY)
Tax revenue targeted at PKR4.7trn (up ~1trn YoY)
Fiscal Deficit to stand at 7% vs. 9.1% in FY21
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
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Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
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Union Budget- MACRO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK STATEMENT 2020-21
1. 1
MACRO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK STATEMENT 2020-21
Overview of the Economy
Global headwinds and challenges in the domestic
financial sector moderated the growth of Indian
economy in 2019-20. The real GDP growth moderated
to 5.0 percent in 2019-20 as compared to 6.8 percent
in 2018-19. Despite a temporary moderation in the
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2019-20,
the fundamentals of Indian economy remain strong
and GDP growth is expected to rebound from the first
quarter of 2020-21. Fiscal situation remained close
to the consolidation path and consumer price inflation
was within the targeted limits set by the monetary
policy committee of Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Despite continuing sluggishness in global demand the
CurrentAccount Deficit (CAD) narrowed to 1.5 percent
of GDP in first half (H1) of 2019-20 from 2.1 percent
in 2018-19. Global confidence in the Indian economy
improved as reflected in growing inflows of net Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI) and an all-time high
accumulation of foreign exchange reserves of US$
457.5 billion as in end December, 2019. India moving
up by 14 positions to 63rd rank in 2019 World Bank's
Ease of Doing Business 2020 Report, has among
others, contributed to the increase in global confidence
in Indian economy. India has emerged as an important
player in the world on the back of high GDP growth
and announcement/implementation of critical
measures in the current year and last few years.
The measures announced/implemented in 2019-20
include- hike in minimum support price of agricultural
crops for 2019-20; reduction in corporate tax rate;
policy initiatives for development of textiles &
handicrafts and electric vehicles; outreach programme
for growth, expansion and facilitation of micro, small
and medium enterprises; incentives for start-ups in
India; scheme to provide a one-time partial credit
guarantee to public sector banks(PSBs) for purchase
of pooled assets of financially sound non-banking
financial companies (NBFCs); recapitalization of public
sector banks, relaxation of external commercial
borrowing guidelines for affordable housing; realty
fund worth ` 25,000 crore for stalled housing projects;
additional tax deduction of interest for affordable
housing; merger of 10 public sector banks into four
entities; revised Priority Sector Lending (PSL) norms
for exports; and streamlining of many labour laws at
the central government level. Apart from this, various
steps were taken to boost manufacturing; employment
generation; financial inclusion; digital payments;
improving ease of doing business via schemes such
as Make in India, Skill India and Direct Benefit
Transfer. Government has also announced the
National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) of projects worth
` 102 lakh crore, which will commence in phases from
2020-21 to 2024-25.
GDP Growth
As per the first advance estimates of annual national
income, the real GDP growth is estimated at 5.0
percent in 2019-20, as compared to the provisional
estimates of 6.8 percent in 2018-19. Correspondingly,
the real growth of gross value added (GVA) is
estimated at 4.9 percent in 2019-20 as compared to
6.6 percent in 2018-19. This moderation in GVAgrowth
in 2019-20 (AE) as compared to 2018-19 is attributed
to all sectors on the supply side save public
administration, defence and other services. From the
demand side private final consumption expenditure,
public final consumption expenditure and net exports
have driven the growth GDP in 2019-20 as compared
to 2018-19. Gross fixed capital formation on the other
hand has slowed the growth of GDP.
Agriculture
In 2018-19, as per fourth advance estimates, food
grain production in the country was estimated at 285
million tonnes, the same as in 2017-18. However, food
grain production was 19.2 million tonnes higher than
the average production of previous five years. Rice
production during 2018-19 was estimated at 116.4
million tonnes as compared to 112.8 million tonnes in
2017-18. Wheat production during 2018-19 was
estimated at 102.2 million tonnes as compared to 99.9
million tonnes during 2017-18. Government has
increased Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for all
mandated kharif, rabi and other commercial crops.
The enhanced MSP ensures a return of 1.5 times over
all India weighted average cost of production for the
season 2019-20.
India continues to be the largest producer of milk in
the world. The milk production in the country was 187.7
million tonnes in 2018-19 growing 6.5 per cent over
the previous year. The egg production in the country
also increased from 95217 million in 2017-18 to
103318 million in 2018-19. Fish production in India
1
2. 2
has registered an average annual growth rate of more
than 7 per cent in the recent years. Total fish
production in the country stood at 13.4 million metric
tonnes during 2018-19. Of this, the marine fisheries
contributed 3.7 million metric tonnes and the inland
fisheries 9.7 million metric tonnes. Under agriculture
credit a sum of ` 9,07,843.4 crore has been disbursed
in 2019-20 as on 30th November, 2019.
Prices
Consumer Price Index (Combined) (CPI-C) inflation
for 2018-19 declined to 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent
in 2017-18 and 4.5 percent in 2016-17. It averaged
4.1 percent in 2019-20 (April to December) and stood
at 7.3 percent in December, 2019. Food inflation based
on Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for 2018-19
declined to 0.1 percent from 1.8 percent in 2017-18
and 4.2 percent in 2016-17. It averaged 5.3 percent
in 2019-20 (April to December) and stood at 14.1
percent in December, 2019.
Inflation measured in terms of Wholesale Price Index
(WPI) stood at 4.3 percent in 2018-19 as compared
to 3.0 percent in 2017-18 and 1.7 percent in 2016-17.
It averaged 1.5 percent in 2019-20 (April to December)
and stood at 2.6 percent in December 2019.
Government has taken various measures from time
to time to stabilize prices of essential food items
through, inter-alia, trade and fiscal policy instruments
like import duty, minimum export price, export
restrictions, imposition of stock limits besides advising
States for effective action against hoarders & black
marketers to regulate domestic availability and
moderate prices. For increasing productivity and
production in key segments of agriculture towards
moderating prices, government has been incentivizing
farmers by announcing minimum support prices and
implementing schemes such as Mission for Integrated
Development of Horticulture (MIDH) and, National
Mission on Oilseeds and Oil Palm (NMOOP), among
others. Government is also implementing Price
Stabilization Fund (PSF) to help moderate the volatility
in prices of agri-horticultural commodities like pulses,
onion, and potato.
Industry
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew at 0.6
percent during April-November 2019 as compared to
3.8 percent in 2018-19. Mining, manufacturing and
electricity sectors in IIP grew at (-)0.1 percent, 0.9
percent and 0.8 percent respectively during April-
November 2019. The full year growth in these three
sectors in 2018-19 was 2.9 percent, 3.9 percent and
5.2 percent respectively. Under the use-based
categories growth inApril-November of 2019-20 stood
for primary goods at 0.1 percent, capital goods at
(-) 11.6 percent, intermediate goods at 12.2 percent
and infrastructure/construction goods at (-) 2.7
percent. The corresponding full year growth of these
categories in 2018-19 was 3.5 percent, 2.7 percent,
0.9 percent and 7.3 percent respectively.
The eight core infrastructure supportive industries, viz.
coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products,
fertilizers, steel, cement and electricity that have a
total weight of nearly 40 percent in the Index of
Industrial Production (IIP) remained stagnant during
April-November 2019 as compared to a growth of 4.4
percent in 2018-19. The production of fertilizers, steel,
and electricity increased by 4.0 percent, 5.2 percent,
0.7 percent respectively during April-November 2019
while the production of coal, crude oil, natural gas,
refinery products and cement contracted by 5.3
percent, 5.9 percent, 3.1 percent, 1.1 percent and 0.02
percent respectively during the same period.
External Sector
Merchandise exports (customs basis) during 2019-
20 (April-December), were US$ 239.3 billion, which
declined by 2.0 percent over the level of US$ 244.1
billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.
During 2019-20 (April-December), merchandise
imports were US$ 357.4 billion, registering a decline
of 8.9 percent over the level of US$ 392.3 billion in
corresponding period of the previous year. Oil imports
declined from US$ 108.5 billion in 2018-19 (April-
December) to US$ 95.7 billion in 2019-20 (April-
December). Merchandise trade deficit improved from
US$ 148.2 billion in 2018-19 (April-December) to US$
118.1 billion in 2019-20 (April-December).
Following a rise in vulnerabilities in 2018-19, India's
external sector has regained some stability in the first
half of 2019-20, with improvement in Balance of
Payments (BoP) position anchored in narrowing of
current account deficit from 2.1 in 2018-19 to 1.5 in
H1 of 2019-20, growing inflows of foreign direct
investment (FDI), rebounding of portfolio flows from
net outflow to net inflow and receipt of robust
remittances, all showing up in higher accretion of
foreign exchange reserves, which as on end
December, 2019 stood at US$ 457.5 billion.
Net FDI inflows have continued to be buoyant in 2019-
20 (April-November) attracting US$ 24.4 billion as
against US$ 21.2 billion, which is a reflection of a
3. 3
global sentiment that increasingly believes in India's
growth story and reform measures being undertaken
by the government.
The average monthly exchange rate of rupee (RBI's
reference rate) was Rs. 70.41 per US dollar in 2019-
20 (April-December), as compared to Rs. 69.92 per
US dollar during 2018-19. External debt as at end
September, 2019 remains low at 20.1 percent of GDP.
After witnessing significant decline since 2014-15,
India's external liabilities (debt and equity) to GDP has
increased at the end of June, 2019 primarily driven
by increase in FDI, portfolio flows and external
commercial borrowings (ECBs).
Monetary Management and Financial
Intermediation
Monetary policy remained accommodative during
2019-20. Five meetings of the Monetary Policy
Committee (MPC) have been held so far in financial
year 2019-20. In the first four meetings, the MPC
decided to cut the policy repo rate. The repo rate was
reduced by 110 basis points (bps) from 6.25 percent
in April 2019 to 5.15 percent in October 2019. In its
fifth bi-monthly monetary policy statement in
December 2019, the MPC decided to keep the repo
rate unchanged at 5.15 percent.
The growth of reserve money as on December 27,
2019 was 10.2 percent over 17.0 percent in December
27, 2018. The expansion in reserve money was led
by Currency in Circulation (CIC). Broad money (M3)
growth has been on declining trend since 2009.
However, since 2018-19 growth of M3 has picked up
and was marginally, mainly driven by the growth in
aggregate deposits. The growth of M3 was 10.4
percent as on December 20, 2019 over 10.2 on
December 20, 2018. The expansion in M3 so far
during the year is attributable to aggregate deposits,
which recorded a growth of 10.1 percent as on
December 20, 2019 over 9.2 percent in December
20, 2018.
Banking and Non-Banking Sector
During 2019-20, gross non-performing advances
(GNPA) ratio of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs)
remained unchanged at 9.3 percent in September
2019 as compared to March 2019. Similarly, the
restructured standard advances (RSA) ratio of SCBs
remained unchanged at 0.4 percent during the same
period. The stressed advances (SA) ratio of SCBs
followed suit by remaining flat at 9.7 percent. GNPA
ratio of public sector banks (PSBs) was also
unchanged at 12.3 percent in September 2019 while
stressed advances ratios increased from 12.7 percent
in March to 12.9 percent in September, 2019.
The growth of non-food credit was 7.2 percent at
November 22, 2019 as compared to 13.8 percent at
November 23, 2018. The moderation in credit growth
was witnessed across all the major segments of non-
food credit except personal loans, which grew at 16.4
percent as on November 22, 2019 as compared to
17.2 percent as on November 23, 2018.
Non-Banking Financial Sector
After growing rapidly in 2017-18 and first half of
2018-19, the NBFC sector has decelerated sharply
since then. The growth of loans from NBFCs declined
to 3.4 per cent at end September 2019 from 14.6 per
cent in December 2018 and 31.9 per cent in
September 2018. The balance sheet of the NBFC
sector grew by 17.9 per cent from ` 26,17,790 crore
to ` 30,85,480 crore during 2018-19. There is an
observable shift in the sources of funding of NBFCs.
Borrowings from banks increased from ` 5.62 lakh
crore in October 2018 to ` 7.13 lakh crore in October
2019 registering a growth of 26.8 per cent. However,
deployment of credit by Mutual funds to NBFCs has
been contracting since October 2018.
Capital Market
The primary market resource mobilization through 85
public and rights issues was ` 73,896 crore during
2019-20 (up to December 31, 2019) as against 124
issues which had raised ` 44,355 crore during
2018-19 (up to December 31, 2018). Funds raised
through private placement of 1,520 issues amounted
to ` 6.29 lakh crores in 2019-20 (up to December 31,
2019) as compared to ` 5.3 lakh crores through 2006
issues in the 2018-19.
India's benchmark indices, namely, Nifty 50 and S&P
BSE Sensex index, have continued to grow during
2019-20. The S&P BSE Sensex, the benchmark index
of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), reached an all-
time high closing of 41,681 on December 20, 2019,
witnessing an increase of 7.2 percent from the level
of 38,871 on April 1, 2019. Nifty50 index gained 5.3
per cent over April1, 2019 to close at 12,226 on
January 3, 2020. Average annual growth of BSE and
Nifty50 in 2019-20 (April-December) was 8.9 percent
and 5.7 percent respectively.
Central Government Finances
The fiscal deficit and revenue deficit for 2019-20 were
4. 4
budgeted at 3.3 percent of GDP and 2.3 percent of
GDP respectively. The BE 2019-20 envisaged a tax
to GDP ratio of 11.7 percent and total expenditure to
GDP ratio of 13.2 percent. The envisaged growth for
gross tax revenue was 9.5 percent over 2018-19
Revised Estimates (RE). The total expenditure in BE
2019-20 was estimated to increase by 13.4 percent
over 2018-19 RE.
As per the data on Union Government Finances
released by Controller General of Accounts for April-
November 2019, the gross tax revenue increased by
0.8 percent over the corresponding period of the
previous year achieving 47.7 percent of the budget
estimate. The non-tax revenue increased by 67.8
percent during (April- November 2019) over the
corresponding period of the previous year achieving
74.3 percent of the budget estimate. At the end of
November 2019, the non-debt capital receipts stood
at 24.2 percent of the budget estimate.
Major subsidies (food, nutrient based fertilizers, urea
and petroleum) increased by 7.3 percent during April-
November, 2019, as compared to April-November
2018. Urea subsidy increased by 52.7 percent and
petroleum subsidy increased by 27.7 percent during
April-November 2019, as compared to the
corresponding period in 2018-19.
During April-November 2019, fiscal deficit reached
114.8 percent of the budgeted amount in 2019-20.
During the corresponding period of the previous year
the same ratio had prevailed in relation to 2018-19
budgeted amount. The revenue deficit for April-
November, 2019 is 128.4 percent of BE and is lower
than the corresponding figure of 132.6 percent in the
previous year. The Revised Estimates place fiscal and
revenue deficits at 3.8 percent of GDP and 2.4 percent
of GDP respectively in 2019-20.
Prospects
The growth of the economy appears to have bottomed
out and is expected to pick up in 2020-21. The
prospects for Indian economy for the year 2020-21
need to be assessed in the light of emerging global
and domestic challenges and opportunities. Major
challenges for the economy arising from the external
front are geo-political tensions in Middle East and
rising crude oil prices due to supply disruption which
may decelerate growth and increase inflation.
Challenges in the domestic front are revival of
investments and savings. The positive prospects for
the economy are continuation of structural reforms
that will revive growth and expected normalization of
credit flow as investment picks up induced by a cut in
the corporate tax rate and anticipated transmission of
repo rate cuts earlier implemented by the Monetary
Policy Committee. Global economic growth is
expected to pick up in 2020 which could also support
India's growth. In view of a positive outlook on
economic rebound the nominal growth of the
economy is expected to be 10 percent in the financial
year 2020-21.
5. 5
MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK STATEMENT
(ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AT A GLANCE)
Sl. Item Absolute value Percentage change
April-December April- December
2018-19 2019-20 2018-19 2019-20
Real Sector
1 GDP at market prices ( thousand crore)
@
a) at current prices 19010 20442 11.2 7.5
b) at 2011-12 prices 14078 14779 6.8 5.0
2 Index of Industrial Production(2011-12=100)
@@
127.7 128.5 5.0 0.6
3 Wholesale Price Index (2011-12=100) 119.9 121.7 4.7 1.5
4 Consumer Price Index: New Series (2012=100) 139.5 145.3 3.7 4.1
5 Money Supply (M3) ( thousand crore) 14549.7 16061.6$
10.2 10.4$
6 Imports at current prices *
a) In Crore 2737092 2514784 23.6 -8.1
b) In US $ billion 392.3 357.4 14.3 -8.9
7 Exports at current prices *
a) In Crore 1702261 1684559 18.5 -1.0
b) In US $ billion 244.1 239.3 9.6 -2.0
8 Trade Deficit (US$ billion) * -148.2 -118.1 22.9 -20.3
9 Foreign Exchange Reserves (at end December)
a) In Crore 2752310 3264729 5.1 18.6
b) In US $ million 393404 457468 -3.9 16.3
10 Current Account Balance (US$ billion)#
-34.8 -20.6
Government Finances (` Crore)##
April-November
2018-19 2019-20 2018-19 2019-20
1. Revenue Receipts 870306 983214 8.1 13.0
Gross tax revenue 1164685 1174143 7.1 0.8
Tax (net to Centre) 731669 750614 4.6 2.6
Non Tax 138637 232600 31.4 67.8
2. Capital Receipts, of which 742902 836843 10.2 12.6
Recovery of loans 10467 10910 10.5 4.2
Other Receipts 15810 18099 -69.8 14.5
Borrowings and other liabilities 716625 807834 17.1 12.7
3. Total Receipts (1+2) 1613208 1820057 9.1 12.8
4.Total Expenditure 1613208 1820057 9.1 12.8
(a) Revenue Expenditure 1421778 1606215 9.8 13.0
Interest payments 348233 341812 12.4 -1.8
(b) Capital Expenditure 191430 213842 4.0 11.7
5. Revenue Deficit 551472 623001 12.6 13.0
6.Effective Revenue Deficit 416686 493783 15.3 18.5
7. Fiscal Deficit 716625 807834 17.1 12.7
8. Primary Deficit 368392 466022 21.9 26.5
@: GDP is from April to March and 2018-19 is provisional estimate and 2019-20 is the first advance estimate.
@@: April to November
*: On Customs basis.
$: as on December 20, 2019
#: April – September.
##: Figures as reported by Controller General of Accounts and Ministry of Finance.