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VIETNAMICA.NET
            Socio-Economic Insights on Vietnam




                 Understanding of

The Vietnamese Economy and Business Environment
Bonjour Vietnam, 2006
                                   Raconte-moi ce nom étrange et difficile à
                                       prononcer
                                   Que je porte depuis que je suis née
                                   Raconte-moi le vieil empire et le trait de mes yeux
                                       bridés
                                   Qui disent mieux que moi ce que tu n'oses dire
                                   Je ne sais de toi que des images de la guerre
                                   Un film de Coppola, des hélicoptères en colère



                                   Tell me all about this name, that is difficult to say.
                                   It was given me the day I was born.
                                   Want to know about the stories of the empire of
                                        old.
                                   My eyes say more of me than what you dare to
                                        say.
                                   All I know of you is all the sights of war.
                                   A film by Coppola, the helicopter's roar.

Musician: Marc Lavoine (French)
Singer: Pham Quynh Anh (Belgian)
Vietnamese Tourism
2000-2005: Welcome to Vietnam
2006-2010: Vietnam: The Hidden Charm
(by Dr. Adam McCarthy, + 30% foreign
visitors)
Curious? Then What Next?
The Last Frontier
•   First investment funds in Vietnam: early 1990s
     – First half 1990s: Eight funds; US$700 Mln.
     – After 1997: only two (Vietnam Enterprise Investment Fund run by
       Dragon Capital Vietnam, and Vietnam Frontier Fund by Finasa)
•   2002-2005:
     – Quite period
     – Mekong Capital, VinaCapital, IDG, VietFund, PXP Asset Management
•   2006-2007:
     – Booming period
     – More: 22 funds and 17 fund management companies
•   2009-2010:
     – Closing, exiting, leaving (Indochina Capital exited in May 2009)
     – Poor perfomance (May 16, 2011)
         • VMFVF1: 9.8; PRUBF1: 5.3; MAFPF1: 4.1
         • Par value: 10
•   The charm is no more hidden!
Vietnam Stock Market
US$
               GDP per capita
2,150




1,650




1,150




 650




 150
        1969   1975   1981   1987   1993   1999   2005   2015
0%
           1%
           2%
           3%
           4%
           5%
           6%
           7%
           8%
           9%
          10%
19
     86
19
     88
19
     90
19
     92
19
     94
19
     96
19
     98
20
     00
20
     02
20
     04
                GDP Growth




20
     06
20
     08
20
     10
The Stock of FDI in Vietnam
              (As of Dec. 22, 2010)
        Type of Investment        No. of Projs    Registration             Statutory


100% foreign-owned                      9,599             119,252                39,258

Joint venture                           2,209              60,586                16,964

Business cooperation contract             223               5,053                 4,574

Joint-stock company                       193               4,795                 1,405

BOT, BT, BTO contracts                     11               3,599                      903

Investment holding                          1                    98                    83
Total                                  12,236             193,382                63,186

(As of Oct. 20, 2009)                  10,805             174,715                56,527

Source: GSO and Vietnam Economic Times, 2010. Registration and statutory
capital figures in million of USD.
Major FDI Sources, 2009




Source: Vietnam Economic Times, 2009.
Data point: Country; Cumulated FDI registration; Relative contribution in
percentage; Value: US$ Bln
Major FDI Sources, 2010
                                                                              Chinese Taipei, 22.8 ,
                                                                                      12%


                           Others, 38.5 , 20%




                                                                                         Korea, 22.1 , 11%
                 Thailand, 5.8 , 3%



               Caym an Islands, 7.4 ,
                        4%


                                                                                           Singapore, 21.7 , 11%
             Hongkong, 7.8 , 4%




                    USA, 13.1 , 7%
                                                                                 Japan, 20.8 , 11%
                                      BVI, 14.5 , 7%

                                                       Malaysia, 18.3 , 10%




Source: Vietnam Economic Times, 2010.
Data point: Country; Cumulated FDI registration; Relative contribution in
percentage; Value: US$ Bln
Vietnam: A Destination for American Companies

 • Pros:
    – The 2001 US-Vietnam Bilingual Trade Agreement
    – Vietnam’s full membership of WTO in 2007.
    – A promising market of 87 million people. The nation
      GDP per capita was about US$1,200 in 2010.
    – A reasonable alternative for China-based production
      since the Chinese production cost is increasing
 • Cons:
    – Business environment: Organized Chaos
    – Emerging and transiting economy
 • Fact: No American FDI in Top15 (4-M 2011)
Trade Deficits
US$ Mln.
                            Exports of Goods        Imports of Goods

100000




 80000



 60000




 40000


                          Exports ~ Imports
 20000



      0
           1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Trade Balance
Agricultural Products Exports
                        US$ Mln

Aquacultural Products     4,953   6.9%

Vegetable                  451    0.6%

Cashew nuts               1,136   1.6%
                                         • The nation’s comparative advantage
Coffee                    1,763   2.5%

Tea                        197    0.3%
                                         • Renewable resource
Pepper                     425    0.6%

Rice                      3,212   4.5%
                                         • Green development and climate change
Casava                     556    0.8%

Coal                      1,549   2.2%

Crude Oil                 4,944   6.9%

Total Export Value       71,629
Agricultural Products




John Richard "Jack" Simplot, 1909-2008   Dang Le Nguyen Vu, born 1971
King of Potato                           Trung Nguyen Coffee
Forbes (2007): # 273, US$3.2 billion     Financial Times Case Study Apr. 27, 2011
Tourism Industry
Socio and Cultural Aspects
• Chinese-originated Confucianism
   – Hierarchy
   – Face-saving
   – Relation business
• Social Ranking “Sĩ – Nông – Công –Thương”
   – Gentry Scholar/Intellectual Official – Farmer –
     Craftsman – Trade/Businessman
• The Hidden Entrepreneur’s Aspiration to Become a Non-
  Entrepreneur
‘Seed’ Capital
• Most Vietnamese business people are enthusiastic
  about discussing collaboration opportunities
• Perception: foreigners bring
      – Future profits
      – AND immediate revenues
• Knowledge of the local market should be an asset for the
  potential partnership
• Face-saving keeps Vietnamese business people not
  asking for what they really want
• `Seed’ capital for long-term partnership
Cultural Interpreter
• There is a gap between what the
  local partner proposes what he has
  done or is able to do
• “Cultural Interpreter”
   – local professional business and
     consulting firm
   – understanding and expertise of the
     business and administrative
     processes
Disguised Entrepreneurs
•   Who are disguised entrepreneurs?

     – A bunch of ideas and proposals

     – NO risk-taking, NO implementing, ect.

     – Trying to be on the “safe-side”


•   Middle man:

     – Willing to facilitate the foreigners’ smooth businesses in Vietnam

     – Gains: profits, business relations, images and brands


•   Keep encouraging them to do their best for business collaboration.
Strategic Planning
• Many set up and start running a new company with:
   – A list of wishes
   – No business plan
• New fashion of the Vietnamese large corporations:
   – Doing “big things,”
   – Thinking globally,
   – Developing strategy
• Strategic planning services: a multi-million dollars market
• High prices for:
   – Well-known consulting brands (experts, professors)
   – The business owner’s ex-ante strategy
   – Higher prices of equity
What is Strategy?
Reference Reading
•   Vuong, Q.H., Dam, V.N, Van Houtte, D. and Tran, T.D. (2011) “The Entrepreneurial Facets as Precursor to Vietnam’s Economic
    Renovation in 1986,” Working Paper Series Centre Emile Bernheim, SBS-EM – ULB, No. WP-CEB 11-010, April.
•   Nancy K. Napier and Vuong Quan Hoang (2011) “Getting to the Real Story: What Vietnamese business people wish foreigners
    understood about doing business in emerging and transition countries like Vietnam – BEFORE they start,” Int. J. Human Resources
    Development and Management, accepted-forthcoming.
•   Quan Hoang Vuong and Tri Dung Tran (2011) “Vietnam’s Corporate Bond Market, 1990-2010: Some Reflections,” The Journal of
    Economic Policy and Research, Volume 6, Number 1, pp. 1-47, October 2010 – March 2011.
•   Vuong Quan Hoang, Tran Tri Dung, and Nguyen Thi Chau Ha (2010) “Mergers and Acquisitions Market in Vietnam’s Transition
    Economy,” The Journal of Economic Policy and Research, Volume 5, No. 1, pp. 1-54 (ISSN: 0975-8577), Mar. 2010. Institute of
    Public Enterprises, Hyderabad 500-007.
•   Vuong Quan Hoang (2010) Financial Markets in Vietnam’s Transition Economy: Facts, Insights, Implications. (ISBN: 978-3-639-
    23383-4) VDM-Verlag, Feb. 2010, Saarbrücken, Germany.
•   Quan-Hoang Vuong and Tran Tri Dung (2009) “The Cultural Dimensions of the Vietnamese Private Entrepreneurship,” The IUP
    Journal of Entrepreneurship Development, Vol. VI, No. 3 & 4 (Sept. and Dec. 2009), pp. 54-78.
•   Vuong Quan Hoang and Tran Tri Dung (2009) “Financial Turbulences in Vietnam’s Emerging Economy: Transformation over
    1991-2008 Period,” in Jagadeesha and Deene, eds., Contemporary Issues in Finance, pp. 43-61, Excel Books, New Delhi, ISBN 978-
    81-7446-725-6 (Amazon link). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1486204
•   André Farber, Nguyen Huu Tu ,Tran Tri Dung, and Quan-Hoang Vuong (2008) “The financial storms in Vietnam’s transition
    economy: A reasoning on the 1991-2008 period,” Working Papers CEB 08-023.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels
    School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB), November.
www.VIETNAMICA.net

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Understanding of the Vietnamese Economy and Business Environment 2011

  • 1. VIETNAMICA.NET Socio-Economic Insights on Vietnam Understanding of The Vietnamese Economy and Business Environment
  • 2. Bonjour Vietnam, 2006 Raconte-moi ce nom étrange et difficile à prononcer Que je porte depuis que je suis née Raconte-moi le vieil empire et le trait de mes yeux bridés Qui disent mieux que moi ce que tu n'oses dire Je ne sais de toi que des images de la guerre Un film de Coppola, des hélicoptères en colère Tell me all about this name, that is difficult to say. It was given me the day I was born. Want to know about the stories of the empire of old. My eyes say more of me than what you dare to say. All I know of you is all the sights of war. A film by Coppola, the helicopter's roar. Musician: Marc Lavoine (French) Singer: Pham Quynh Anh (Belgian)
  • 3. Vietnamese Tourism 2000-2005: Welcome to Vietnam 2006-2010: Vietnam: The Hidden Charm (by Dr. Adam McCarthy, + 30% foreign visitors) Curious? Then What Next?
  • 4. The Last Frontier • First investment funds in Vietnam: early 1990s – First half 1990s: Eight funds; US$700 Mln. – After 1997: only two (Vietnam Enterprise Investment Fund run by Dragon Capital Vietnam, and Vietnam Frontier Fund by Finasa) • 2002-2005: – Quite period – Mekong Capital, VinaCapital, IDG, VietFund, PXP Asset Management • 2006-2007: – Booming period – More: 22 funds and 17 fund management companies • 2009-2010: – Closing, exiting, leaving (Indochina Capital exited in May 2009) – Poor perfomance (May 16, 2011) • VMFVF1: 9.8; PRUBF1: 5.3; MAFPF1: 4.1 • Par value: 10 • The charm is no more hidden!
  • 6. US$ GDP per capita 2,150 1,650 1,150 650 150 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2015
  • 7. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 GDP Growth 20 06 20 08 20 10
  • 8. The Stock of FDI in Vietnam (As of Dec. 22, 2010) Type of Investment No. of Projs Registration Statutory 100% foreign-owned 9,599 119,252 39,258 Joint venture 2,209 60,586 16,964 Business cooperation contract 223 5,053 4,574 Joint-stock company 193 4,795 1,405 BOT, BT, BTO contracts 11 3,599 903 Investment holding 1 98 83 Total 12,236 193,382 63,186 (As of Oct. 20, 2009) 10,805 174,715 56,527 Source: GSO and Vietnam Economic Times, 2010. Registration and statutory capital figures in million of USD.
  • 9. Major FDI Sources, 2009 Source: Vietnam Economic Times, 2009. Data point: Country; Cumulated FDI registration; Relative contribution in percentage; Value: US$ Bln
  • 10. Major FDI Sources, 2010 Chinese Taipei, 22.8 , 12% Others, 38.5 , 20% Korea, 22.1 , 11% Thailand, 5.8 , 3% Caym an Islands, 7.4 , 4% Singapore, 21.7 , 11% Hongkong, 7.8 , 4% USA, 13.1 , 7% Japan, 20.8 , 11% BVI, 14.5 , 7% Malaysia, 18.3 , 10% Source: Vietnam Economic Times, 2010. Data point: Country; Cumulated FDI registration; Relative contribution in percentage; Value: US$ Bln
  • 11. Vietnam: A Destination for American Companies • Pros: – The 2001 US-Vietnam Bilingual Trade Agreement – Vietnam’s full membership of WTO in 2007. – A promising market of 87 million people. The nation GDP per capita was about US$1,200 in 2010. – A reasonable alternative for China-based production since the Chinese production cost is increasing • Cons: – Business environment: Organized Chaos – Emerging and transiting economy • Fact: No American FDI in Top15 (4-M 2011)
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. Trade Deficits US$ Mln. Exports of Goods Imports of Goods 100000 80000 60000 40000 Exports ~ Imports 20000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  • 16. Agricultural Products Exports US$ Mln Aquacultural Products 4,953 6.9% Vegetable 451 0.6% Cashew nuts 1,136 1.6% • The nation’s comparative advantage Coffee 1,763 2.5% Tea 197 0.3% • Renewable resource Pepper 425 0.6% Rice 3,212 4.5% • Green development and climate change Casava 556 0.8% Coal 1,549 2.2% Crude Oil 4,944 6.9% Total Export Value 71,629
  • 17. Agricultural Products John Richard "Jack" Simplot, 1909-2008 Dang Le Nguyen Vu, born 1971 King of Potato Trung Nguyen Coffee Forbes (2007): # 273, US$3.2 billion Financial Times Case Study Apr. 27, 2011
  • 19. Socio and Cultural Aspects • Chinese-originated Confucianism – Hierarchy – Face-saving – Relation business • Social Ranking “Sĩ – Nông – Công –Thương” – Gentry Scholar/Intellectual Official – Farmer – Craftsman – Trade/Businessman • The Hidden Entrepreneur’s Aspiration to Become a Non- Entrepreneur
  • 20. ‘Seed’ Capital • Most Vietnamese business people are enthusiastic about discussing collaboration opportunities • Perception: foreigners bring – Future profits – AND immediate revenues • Knowledge of the local market should be an asset for the potential partnership • Face-saving keeps Vietnamese business people not asking for what they really want • `Seed’ capital for long-term partnership
  • 21. Cultural Interpreter • There is a gap between what the local partner proposes what he has done or is able to do • “Cultural Interpreter” – local professional business and consulting firm – understanding and expertise of the business and administrative processes
  • 22. Disguised Entrepreneurs • Who are disguised entrepreneurs? – A bunch of ideas and proposals – NO risk-taking, NO implementing, ect. – Trying to be on the “safe-side” • Middle man: – Willing to facilitate the foreigners’ smooth businesses in Vietnam – Gains: profits, business relations, images and brands • Keep encouraging them to do their best for business collaboration.
  • 23. Strategic Planning • Many set up and start running a new company with: – A list of wishes – No business plan • New fashion of the Vietnamese large corporations: – Doing “big things,” – Thinking globally, – Developing strategy • Strategic planning services: a multi-million dollars market • High prices for: – Well-known consulting brands (experts, professors) – The business owner’s ex-ante strategy – Higher prices of equity
  • 25. Reference Reading • Vuong, Q.H., Dam, V.N, Van Houtte, D. and Tran, T.D. (2011) “The Entrepreneurial Facets as Precursor to Vietnam’s Economic Renovation in 1986,” Working Paper Series Centre Emile Bernheim, SBS-EM – ULB, No. WP-CEB 11-010, April. • Nancy K. Napier and Vuong Quan Hoang (2011) “Getting to the Real Story: What Vietnamese business people wish foreigners understood about doing business in emerging and transition countries like Vietnam – BEFORE they start,” Int. J. Human Resources Development and Management, accepted-forthcoming. • Quan Hoang Vuong and Tri Dung Tran (2011) “Vietnam’s Corporate Bond Market, 1990-2010: Some Reflections,” The Journal of Economic Policy and Research, Volume 6, Number 1, pp. 1-47, October 2010 – March 2011. • Vuong Quan Hoang, Tran Tri Dung, and Nguyen Thi Chau Ha (2010) “Mergers and Acquisitions Market in Vietnam’s Transition Economy,” The Journal of Economic Policy and Research, Volume 5, No. 1, pp. 1-54 (ISSN: 0975-8577), Mar. 2010. Institute of Public Enterprises, Hyderabad 500-007. • Vuong Quan Hoang (2010) Financial Markets in Vietnam’s Transition Economy: Facts, Insights, Implications. (ISBN: 978-3-639- 23383-4) VDM-Verlag, Feb. 2010, Saarbrücken, Germany. • Quan-Hoang Vuong and Tran Tri Dung (2009) “The Cultural Dimensions of the Vietnamese Private Entrepreneurship,” The IUP Journal of Entrepreneurship Development, Vol. VI, No. 3 & 4 (Sept. and Dec. 2009), pp. 54-78. • Vuong Quan Hoang and Tran Tri Dung (2009) “Financial Turbulences in Vietnam’s Emerging Economy: Transformation over 1991-2008 Period,” in Jagadeesha and Deene, eds., Contemporary Issues in Finance, pp. 43-61, Excel Books, New Delhi, ISBN 978- 81-7446-725-6 (Amazon link). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1486204 • André Farber, Nguyen Huu Tu ,Tran Tri Dung, and Quan-Hoang Vuong (2008) “The financial storms in Vietnam’s transition economy: A reasoning on the 1991-2008 period,” Working Papers CEB 08-023.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB), November.
  • 26. www.VIETNAMICA.net • Quality Insights on Vietnam’s Economy and Business • Financially and Time-Saving Tool For Your Making Well Informed Decisions.