Donald Trump has packed his cabinet with advisors who are pro-Taiwan and anti-China. Most notably,
Trump's Anti-China Triumvirate:
Robert Lighthizer - US trade representative
Wilbur Ross - Secretary of Commerce
Peter Navarro - Newly created White House National Trade Council
He says he will withdraw from the TPP and levy a 45% tariff on Chinese imports. This report will explore the impact of these actions on US small businesses.
China is ASEAN’s largest trading partner and a growing economic force in the Asia-Pacific region. Thousands of miles away, America has a new president, Donald Trump, who is threatening to enact anti-China trade policies and to remove the United States from the Transpacific Partnership. This presentation will explore China’s importance in Asia, as well as how changes in Trump-China trade policies will impact ASEAN.
The US is China’s number one export partner. For most of the last eight years, China has been the largest holder of US debt. The two countries are closely linked economically. As the world’s number one and number two economies, trade between these giants effects the entre globe. Donald Trump is accusing China of currency manipulation and unfair trade, vowing to remove the US from the Transpacific Partnership and to levy a 45% tariff on Chinese products. He is also threatening a 35% tax on US companies who export jobs to China. This presentation will explore these concepts in detail as well as look at the possible outcome of a trade war between the US and China.
How will Trump’s victory impact the global apparel industry?ThreadSol
This ppt will tell you various implications of Donald Trump’s trade policies on the global apparel industry. Check out the full article on http://stitchdiary.com/will-trumps-victory-impact-global-apparel-industry/
This PPT is from a 2017 presentation for AGP at their national convention. It covers the impact on agriculture from Federal Reserve policies, from the incoming Trump administration and from changing agriculture technology. If you want to find out why a finger with bandaid makes Fed policy difficult, contact us here: http://www.andrewbusch.com/?page=contact
Trade deficit tax losses violates constitutional law. This presentation has sound and provide and indepth overview of the trade deficit. It provides an understanding of equal trade as a corrective action. It also invites the reader to sign a petition at the website www.CitizensForEqualTrade.org.
With such an unpredictable 2016 behind us where Brexit and the election of new US president Donald Trump sent shock waves through the world, the question is, what can we expect for 2017?
China is ASEAN’s largest trading partner and a growing economic force in the Asia-Pacific region. Thousands of miles away, America has a new president, Donald Trump, who is threatening to enact anti-China trade policies and to remove the United States from the Transpacific Partnership. This presentation will explore China’s importance in Asia, as well as how changes in Trump-China trade policies will impact ASEAN.
The US is China’s number one export partner. For most of the last eight years, China has been the largest holder of US debt. The two countries are closely linked economically. As the world’s number one and number two economies, trade between these giants effects the entre globe. Donald Trump is accusing China of currency manipulation and unfair trade, vowing to remove the US from the Transpacific Partnership and to levy a 45% tariff on Chinese products. He is also threatening a 35% tax on US companies who export jobs to China. This presentation will explore these concepts in detail as well as look at the possible outcome of a trade war between the US and China.
How will Trump’s victory impact the global apparel industry?ThreadSol
This ppt will tell you various implications of Donald Trump’s trade policies on the global apparel industry. Check out the full article on http://stitchdiary.com/will-trumps-victory-impact-global-apparel-industry/
This PPT is from a 2017 presentation for AGP at their national convention. It covers the impact on agriculture from Federal Reserve policies, from the incoming Trump administration and from changing agriculture technology. If you want to find out why a finger with bandaid makes Fed policy difficult, contact us here: http://www.andrewbusch.com/?page=contact
Trade deficit tax losses violates constitutional law. This presentation has sound and provide and indepth overview of the trade deficit. It provides an understanding of equal trade as a corrective action. It also invites the reader to sign a petition at the website www.CitizensForEqualTrade.org.
With such an unpredictable 2016 behind us where Brexit and the election of new US president Donald Trump sent shock waves through the world, the question is, what can we expect for 2017?
Trade Wars and Sanctions: The Sino-American Confrontation and Japan Part 2
Presenter: Hiromi Murakami, Senior fellow at Economic Strategy Institute and Adjunct Professor at Temple University Japan Campus (TUJ)
Threats of trade war between china and usaM S Siddiqui
Free trade has supported the growth of the post-World War II world economy. If an all-out trade war were to break out between major powers, it would rock the foundations for growth. The United States and China are responsible for not only maintaining international security but also stabilizing the world economy.
Causes and possible consequences of the us china trade warHüseyin Tekler
When we look at the history of the known humanity, it appears that people started living in communities and that private property has emerged due to the progress of historical conditions. One of the consequences of this outcome is that world history is the scene of many wars and destruction. When it comes to war, it is armed struggles that take place between countries or political groups that come to mind first. Looking at this perspective, we see that the historical development process is also seen as the great majority of battles take place as physical battles, but it has become possible to say that, with great physical battles, technological and economic developments, sword-fighting and armed wars have begun to shift to economic and cultural wars. This new form of war has begun to take place on the stage of history on the basis of economic instruments. As an example of economic warfare, protectionism can be shown by countries in the direction of their own economic interests. It would not be wrong to say that the currency wars and the wars of trade that brought about by the protectionist policies of the countries, especially in the crisis period, will be the most important economic problem of our time. Throughout history, all wars have led to great destruction, and generally underdeveloped countries and poor countries have been affected by these destructions, and it is not wrong to say that the economic wars, as well as physical wars, will effect the least developed countries and the poor countries.
In this analysis, in the light of the historical background of protectionism, a trade war and the possible consequences of this war, which could be caused by the mutually elevated trade walls of the US and China, were examined.
Understanding the US-China Trade Relationship Peachy Essay
The US-China Business Council (USCBC) is pleased to have commissioned this study by Oxford Economics on the overall impact of China on the US economy.
During last year’s election campaign, the negative impact of trade with China, such as estimates of jobs lost, received considerable attention. In most cases, the presented data fails to provide a balanced assessment that incorporates the positive effect of the commercial relationship with China. Presenting only the negative impact and ignoring the jobs created, lower inflation, and other benefits of trade with China can lead to policies based on incomplete or misleading information.
Colliers Flash - Challenges for asia after Trump's winHan Nguyen
Trump's victory surprises global financial markets
At first sight, Trump's policies will hold down Asian growth
Slow US interest rate rises would support Hong Kong property
USD weakness would hurt Japan and other Asian exporting nations
Direct implications for Asian emerging countries are limited
Trump and Brexit surprises should lower concern about Asia over time
Increasing tariffs and duties on either raw material or finished goods just forces up prices - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Government used tariffs and duties as stop gap when it comes to votes
USA is gaining in-shoring jobs - http://www.stltoday.com/news/national/govt-and-politics/us-factories-expand-at-strongest-rate-in-almost-years/article_f503790c-d2f2-593f-b6b3-e469da499080.html
USA has made changes to tax codes and regulations, but more needs to be done in terms of policies
Rising Healthcare Costs - https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/employers-to-spend-about-10000-on-health-care-for-each-worker.html
Rising Labour Costs - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-costs/u-s-labor-costs-increase-solidly-in-the-fourth-quarter-idUSKBN1FK1XR?il=0 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bonds-investments-analysis/costly-dollar-hedges-tarnish-u-s-bonds-for-overseas-investors-idUSKCN1GC0OF
Rising USD$ - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bonds-investments-analysis/costly-dollar-hedges-tarnish-u-s-bonds-for-overseas-investors-idUSKCN1GC0OF
The GCC will not be spared, as the region’s governments try to make sense of an untested leader entering at a particularly turbulent time. Yet for all of Mr Trump’s controversy, GCC governments remain tepidly optimistic about his arrival.
The following briefing, put together by our experts in the region, outlines where that optimism comes from and the hidden challenges that the region may face.
U.S. Presidential election China implications Brunswick Group
The unprecedented nature of this election has communication implications for companies across the globe, and especially for China. The country is a frequent topic in presidential candidates’ speeches on the campaign trail.
Companies operating in China, and particularly those with strong ties to both China and the U.S., should consider the white-hot campaign spotlight on China during the election. Clear communication, careful planning, and deliberate timing are more essential now than ever.
For more information please contact our following offices:
Beijing: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/beijing/
Hong Kong: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/hong-kong/
Shanghai: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/shanghai/
Washington, DC: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/washington-dc/
Will the US election trump the economy in 2017?RBS Economics
With the 2016 US Presidential election approach there have been questions about what this could mean for the US economy in 2017. In this blog, economist Rupert Seggins draws on the historical experience of the US and its G7 peers to offer an answer.
While this time may be different, history suggests that the bar for a President-caused US recession in 2017 is set much higher than may commonly be thought.
Trade Wars and Sanctions: The Sino-American Confrontation and Japan Part 2
Presenter: Hiromi Murakami, Senior fellow at Economic Strategy Institute and Adjunct Professor at Temple University Japan Campus (TUJ)
Threats of trade war between china and usaM S Siddiqui
Free trade has supported the growth of the post-World War II world economy. If an all-out trade war were to break out between major powers, it would rock the foundations for growth. The United States and China are responsible for not only maintaining international security but also stabilizing the world economy.
Causes and possible consequences of the us china trade warHüseyin Tekler
When we look at the history of the known humanity, it appears that people started living in communities and that private property has emerged due to the progress of historical conditions. One of the consequences of this outcome is that world history is the scene of many wars and destruction. When it comes to war, it is armed struggles that take place between countries or political groups that come to mind first. Looking at this perspective, we see that the historical development process is also seen as the great majority of battles take place as physical battles, but it has become possible to say that, with great physical battles, technological and economic developments, sword-fighting and armed wars have begun to shift to economic and cultural wars. This new form of war has begun to take place on the stage of history on the basis of economic instruments. As an example of economic warfare, protectionism can be shown by countries in the direction of their own economic interests. It would not be wrong to say that the currency wars and the wars of trade that brought about by the protectionist policies of the countries, especially in the crisis period, will be the most important economic problem of our time. Throughout history, all wars have led to great destruction, and generally underdeveloped countries and poor countries have been affected by these destructions, and it is not wrong to say that the economic wars, as well as physical wars, will effect the least developed countries and the poor countries.
In this analysis, in the light of the historical background of protectionism, a trade war and the possible consequences of this war, which could be caused by the mutually elevated trade walls of the US and China, were examined.
Understanding the US-China Trade Relationship Peachy Essay
The US-China Business Council (USCBC) is pleased to have commissioned this study by Oxford Economics on the overall impact of China on the US economy.
During last year’s election campaign, the negative impact of trade with China, such as estimates of jobs lost, received considerable attention. In most cases, the presented data fails to provide a balanced assessment that incorporates the positive effect of the commercial relationship with China. Presenting only the negative impact and ignoring the jobs created, lower inflation, and other benefits of trade with China can lead to policies based on incomplete or misleading information.
Colliers Flash - Challenges for asia after Trump's winHan Nguyen
Trump's victory surprises global financial markets
At first sight, Trump's policies will hold down Asian growth
Slow US interest rate rises would support Hong Kong property
USD weakness would hurt Japan and other Asian exporting nations
Direct implications for Asian emerging countries are limited
Trump and Brexit surprises should lower concern about Asia over time
Increasing tariffs and duties on either raw material or finished goods just forces up prices - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Government used tariffs and duties as stop gap when it comes to votes
USA is gaining in-shoring jobs - http://www.stltoday.com/news/national/govt-and-politics/us-factories-expand-at-strongest-rate-in-almost-years/article_f503790c-d2f2-593f-b6b3-e469da499080.html
USA has made changes to tax codes and regulations, but more needs to be done in terms of policies
Rising Healthcare Costs - https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/employers-to-spend-about-10000-on-health-care-for-each-worker.html
Rising Labour Costs - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-costs/u-s-labor-costs-increase-solidly-in-the-fourth-quarter-idUSKBN1FK1XR?il=0 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bonds-investments-analysis/costly-dollar-hedges-tarnish-u-s-bonds-for-overseas-investors-idUSKCN1GC0OF
Rising USD$ - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bonds-investments-analysis/costly-dollar-hedges-tarnish-u-s-bonds-for-overseas-investors-idUSKCN1GC0OF
The GCC will not be spared, as the region’s governments try to make sense of an untested leader entering at a particularly turbulent time. Yet for all of Mr Trump’s controversy, GCC governments remain tepidly optimistic about his arrival.
The following briefing, put together by our experts in the region, outlines where that optimism comes from and the hidden challenges that the region may face.
U.S. Presidential election China implications Brunswick Group
The unprecedented nature of this election has communication implications for companies across the globe, and especially for China. The country is a frequent topic in presidential candidates’ speeches on the campaign trail.
Companies operating in China, and particularly those with strong ties to both China and the U.S., should consider the white-hot campaign spotlight on China during the election. Clear communication, careful planning, and deliberate timing are more essential now than ever.
For more information please contact our following offices:
Beijing: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/beijing/
Hong Kong: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/hong-kong/
Shanghai: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/shanghai/
Washington, DC: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/washington-dc/
Will the US election trump the economy in 2017?RBS Economics
With the 2016 US Presidential election approach there have been questions about what this could mean for the US economy in 2017. In this blog, economist Rupert Seggins draws on the historical experience of the US and its G7 peers to offer an answer.
While this time may be different, history suggests that the bar for a President-caused US recession in 2017 is set much higher than may commonly be thought.
On November 8, 2016 Donald Trump was elected president of the United States. His election sparked protests across the United States and demonstrated how divided the nation is on President Trump. He assumed office on January 20th, 2017, with an approval rating of only 48%, one of the lowest of any incoming president in history. He banned travel to the US from 7 Muslim countries, insulted the leaders of Germany, Mexico, and Australia, pulled America out of the Transpacific Partnership, threatened protectionist tariffs and taxes on foreign imports, and he packed his cabinet with pro-Taiwan and anti-China pundits.
Will the New Era of Trade Protectionism Under the Trump Regime Make America G...Christiana Wu
The election of Republican candidate, Donald Trump, as the 45th President of the USA in November 2016 marked a new era of trade protectionism. In his inaugural address, President Trump announced his “America First,” policy, effectively advocating a retreat from its traditional global leadership role in promoting more open trade. These sentiments mirror a global movement towards protectionism as evidenced by the British referendum to leave the EU (Brexit) and the wave of nationalism and anti-immigration sweeping across Europe. President Trump’s economic agenda to make America Great Again included several restrictive trade measures ranging from abandoning (TPP) and renegotiating multilateral free trade agreements (NAFTA), to imposing hefty import taxes on errant trading partners whose actions harm American jobs.
In our view, the net impact of these restrictive trade measures are likely to be positive on the US economy as the benefits to domestic manufacturers and American workers via import substitution and reshoring outweigh the costs of protectionism, such as higher prices for consumers and slowdown in trade activity. However, from an Asia-Pacific Economic Corporation (APEC) perspective, which has been repeatedly accused of unfair trade practices, US trade protectionism poses significant downside risks, with major ramifications for Mexico, Canada and China due to their high exposure to the US market. While economic growth of these countries would be in jeopardy due to the slowdown in trade and remittances inflows, possible trade wars between China and the USA would have knock-on effects for other countries that export heavily to China such as Taiwan and Malaysia.
There are two articles below and in the modules section), one di.docxrelaine1
There are two articles below and in the modules section), one discussing the US withdrawal from the Tran Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade negotiations and a second discussing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The RCEP was originally the Chinese version of the TPP but now contains many of the countries that were to be TPP participants.
Your job is to evaluate the merits of the US decision to withdraw and the China’s reaction of embracing the leadership for, in effect, recreating the TPP without the US but with some staunch US allies.
There are both political and economic aspects to the actions of the US and China. Use the discussions in class and the other readings assigned concerning trade as well as your ongoing reading of the news. Your assignment is not meant to present an exhaustive review of what has happened and why it happened. It is to demonstrate knowledge of trade, the resulting politics, and the implications for the future…in 2 pages.
The paper is due by 11:59 PM on Sunday March 7. Submission will be though “Turnitin”. Be forewarned: “Turnitin” looks for plagiarism from published papers, and documents from around the world. Plagiarism is not dealt with by the instructor but by the department! Be smart and do your own work…which will make you smarter.
Bring a hard copy to class, please.
As Trump retreats on trade, China moves in
America’s traditional partners already are turning to Beijing.
By
Hans von der Burchard (Links to an external site.)
and
Simon Marks (Links to an external site.)
“Politico”
1/24/17, 8:49 PM CET
Updated 1/27/17, 8:42 AM CET
U.S. President Donald Trump’s crusade against China seemed to backfire on Day One.
Throughout his election campaign, Trump made clamorous promises to challenge Beijing’s ascent to global dominance. He vowed to hold the country to account over currency manipulation and cozied up to Taiwan. He accused Beijing of saber-rattling in the South China Sea and of supine support for nuclear-armed North Korea.
But Trump’s first big move on trade policy —
an executive order to withdraw (Links to an external site.)
from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal among 12 Pacific Rim countries — is set to play straight into China’s hands as it seeks to become the undisputed regional power. Angry over the move, America’s traditional trade partners have already this week reached out to Beijing to forge closer commercial ties.
China is perfectly placed to move into the empty space created by the U.S. withdrawal.
Ironically, one of the overriding strategic goals of the Trans-Pacific Partnership had been to triangulate a U.S.-led trade policy that would set technological and regulatory standards in Asia, which China would be forced to follow. The accord was a key plank of President Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia.”
European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström also criticized Trump’s protectionist policies on trade and said his policies were “doomed to fail..
The President of the USA for kids from chicken! Newspaper for childrenKen Wilson-Max
chicken! is a unique newspaper for children in primary school which bring current affairs into the classroom like never before. Here we explain what happened at the recent US Presidential election.
“You've got to know business before you go to show business.”
- Patti LaBelle
“Politics is just like show business. You have a hell of an opening, coast for a while, and then have a hell of a close.”
- President Ronald Reagan
“In order to carry a positive action we must develop here a positive vision.” - Dalai Lama
“The thing that lies at the foundation of positive change, the way I see it, is service to a fellow human being.”
- Lee Iacocca
“A President cannot always be popular.”
- President Harry S Truman
What Happens to Your Investments if the Trade War Becomes Permanent?InvestingTips
http://profitableinvestingtips.com/profitable-investing-tips/what-happens-to-your-investments-if-the-trade-war-becomes-permanent
What Happens to Your Investments if the Trade War Becomes Permanent?
What is going to happen with US Chinese tariffs? The consensus of the stock market seems to be that an amicable agreement will be reached and all will be well. That may not be the case. What happens to your investments if the trade war becomes permanent? We are not the only ones to be concerned. CNBC reports that Moody’s believes the stock market is getting it wrong and that the trade war could be prolonged and cause lasting damage to the world economy. So far the USA has put tariffs on $200 Billion in Chinese goods and the Chinese have put tariffs on $60 Billion in US goods.
“It’s a very modest response,” said Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, of China’s reaction. “There’s no question China’s hurting and they may want to negotiate. The problem is the Trump administration may be overplaying its hand. The harder they push, they may push the Chinese into a corner where politically and for just reasons of saving face, they can’t negotiate with the administration, and secondly the administration hasn’t established a negotiating process. There’s a real divide between the trade hawks and doves.”
Moody’s is predicting that US growth will slow to 2.3% next year and China’s to 6.4%. Why is this happening and why is there a danger of a prolonged trade war and diminution of the global economy?
Similar to Trump-China Trade and the Impact on US Small Business (9)
A presentation for the 15th Asia TEFL International Conference-64th TEFLIN International Conference, held in Yogyakarta, July 2017
Business degree courses taught in English is one of the greatest growth areas in education. Because English medium programs are being taught around the world, even less developed countries, off the beaten path, such as Cambodia, are receiving international and exchange students. Delivering business courses in an English medium presents a number of issues, for example, who will be the teachers? The three options explored in this presentation are: 1. Local professors with subject knowledge, but questionable ability to teach in English, 2. Very expensive foreign professors who may not know how to scale their language and workload to meet the needs of a second language audience, or 3. ESL teachers who know how to communicate well with and motivate L2 students, but who may not be subject experts.
An inspirational presentation at Blue Mountain, Torrens University, Suzhou, China Campus
By Antonio Graceffo, PhD, China-MBA, Diplom Licentiate TESOL
Antonio draws parallels from his own life to those of his literary heroes Edgar Rice Burroughs, Sir Richard Francis Burton, Jack London, Louis L’Amour, and Ernest Hemingway. These men all lived incredible lives and were unusually prolific.
China's One Belt One Road Initiative is one of the largest projects ever undertaken by humans. It includes roads, ports, fiber optic cables, and pipelines, running from Singapore, North through ASEAN, to China, Xinjiang, Central Asia, Pakistan, and Iran. Along the route, the project brings
economic growth, human development, and the spread of the Chinese language. In Cambodia, The Belt and Road is also bringing about a resurgence of Chinese identity among Cambodia’s ethnic Chinese community. This presentation looks at the history of Chinese education in Cambodia and how it has dramatically increased, due to the Belt and Road Initiative.
中国特色经济发展(中国1978 以后经济改革开放)
Economic Development with Chinese Characteristics a presentation at the Finland business association, Shanghai China by Antonio Graceffo, PhD, China-MBA (安东尼博士)
School of Economics Shanghai University (上海大学经济学院)
This presentation traces China’s economic history, beginning with the formation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949, through the economic liberalization under Deng Xiaoping, which began in 1978, through the 1990s, and the beginning of state support for entrepreneurs. Dr. Graceffo explains the function of state owned enterprises, as well as China’s investment in ASEAN and the Belt and Road Initiative (One Belt One Road).
Watch the presentation on Youtube
https://youtu.be/I0l3rt5FBxk
British Author, George Orwell (1903-1950) was a socialist and adventurer, British Empire policeman in Burma and a volunteer in the Spanish Civil War. He lived among the poor in London and Paris, as well as among coal miners in Wigan. He was a socialist, but one who wrote commercially successful works. His greatest contribution to both literature and political science was 1984 which has been used by both the left and the right to prove the evils of the opposing political view.
America was born in a revolution, tempered in a civil war and passed its adolescence in the Jazz Age. F. Scott Fitzgerald was author of that age, and all of the famous notables who moved within his sphere were characters he created. The stock market crash in 1929 signaled the end of the feast. The Great Depression was an adult tragedy which had no place for America’s eternal youth. Finding no place in this world, Scott chose to move on to the next one. In 1940, he moved on leaving us with four and a half novels and 178 short stories. Of all the books written about the jazz age, Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby is the one which is universally regarded as the best and most accurate depiction of the era. Many scholars believe The Great Gatsby is the Greatest American novel.
War hero, big game hunter, fisherman, and arguably the greatest American writer of all time. Hemingway gave the world 10 novels, 10 collections of short stories, 5 works of non-fiction, and 21 movies based on his writing.
In return, he was awarded Pulitzer Prize for Fiction (1953) and the Nobel Prize in Literature (1954).
Some say that his greatest literary work was his life. He became the character, Ernest Hemingway. He believed boxing, war, hunting, and bull fighting were the bravest things a man could do.
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One of a series of university level presentations about adventure authors. The presentation introduces students to Jack London’s incredible life and his writing.
An English language translation of part of Brooklyn Monk, Antonio Graceffo’s PhD dissertation for Shanghai University of Sport. His PhD topic is “Chinese traditional wrestling compared with western wresting.”
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and TemplatesAurelien Domont, MBA
This Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit was created by ex-McKinsey, Deloitte and BCG Management Consultants, after more than 5,000 hours of work. It is considered the world's best & most comprehensive Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit. It includes all the Frameworks, Best Practices & Templates required to successfully undertake the Digital Transformation of your organization and define a robust IT Strategy.
Editable Toolkit to help you reuse our content: 700 Powerpoint slides | 35 Excel sheets | 84 minutes of Video training
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Personal Brand Statement:
As an Army veteran dedicated to lifelong learning, I bring a disciplined, strategic mindset to my pursuits. I am constantly expanding my knowledge to innovate and lead effectively. My journey is driven by a commitment to excellence, and to make a meaningful impact in the world.
Trump-China Trade and the Impact on US Small Business
1. Trump-China Trade and the Impact on Small Business
Antonio Graceffo, PhD, China-MBA
标题:唐纳德·特朗普和中国
贸易的未来
安东尼博士
上海大学经济学院
School of Economics Shanghai University
2. Trump's Anti-China Triumvirate:
Robert Lighthizer - US trade representative
Wilbur Ross – Secretary of Commerce
Peter Navarro - Newly created White House National Trade Council
US-China trade relations are about to get ugly
President-elect Trump has packed his cabinet with
advisors who are pro-Taiwan and anti-China.
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
Most notably:
4. (安东尼博士))
The world is waiting anxiously to see what America’s new president Donald
Trump will do first when he assumes the powers of the President
on January 20, 2017.
Donald Trump has said that the US will leave the Transpacific
Partnership (TPP)
And
He has also vowed to raise a 45% tariff on products imported
from China, As well as a 35% tax on US companies abroad.
We can only speculate about what he plans to do, but
he has said two things which will impact US-China
Trade.
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
Donald Trump将于2017年1
月20日成为美国总统。没
有人知道他会做什么..
他说他希望美国退出跨太
平洋伙伴关系 (TPP)。他还
表示,他想对所有中国产
品征收45%的贸易关税。
5. A Brief Overview of China-US Trade
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
In 2015, China exports to the US totaled
$481.9 for
US exports to China totaled only $116.2
billion (Amadeo 2016).
The US accounts for a total of 20% of China’s exports (Elliott 2016). And
this number increases almost every year.
The US runs a trade deficit with China
美国是中国第一大出口伙伴,占中国
出口总额的20%(Elliott 2016)。
它几乎每年都增加。
美国与中国发生贸易逆差
2015年,中国对美出口总额4819亿
美元
美国对华出口总额仅为1162亿美元
6. (安东尼博士))
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
Donald Trump says China is beating the US in trade because Chinese
wages and Chinese currency are too low. Therefore, he wants to raise
a 45% tariff on Chinese products to make them more expensive and
make trade between US and China more even.
他说,中国有一个贸易优势,因为中国的工资和中国
的货币太低。
因此,他想对中国产品征收45%的税,使它们更贵,
使美中贸易更平均。
7. (安东尼博士))
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
Lower wages
The average factory worker in US earns
$11.93/hour $1,908/month (Payscale.com)
While the average factory worker in
China earns around 3000 RMB per
month ($463) (Thayer Consulting, 2016)
Chinese products are cheaper than American products on world markets,
including inside of the US. One reasons for this is that Chinese wages are very
low compared to other developed countries.
他说,中国有一个贸易优势,因
为中国的工资和中国的货币太低。
因此,他想对中国产品征收45%
的税,使它们更贵,使美中贸易
更平均。(重复了?)
美国的平均工厂工人每小时得到
11.93美元,每月1,9080美元
(Payscale.com)
中国的平均工厂工人每月约3000
元(463美元)(Thayer
Consulting,2016)
8. (安东尼博士))
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
Many economists feel that China’s wages are too low, given how rich China is.
Per capita GDP (used as average income)
China $7,924.7
Malaysia $9,766.2
Gabon$10,966
The country in western Europe with the
worst economy is Greece, which has a
per capita GDP of $18,035.6 .
(Worldbank 2016)
A number of countries which are much poorer than China have higher incomes.
许多经济学家认为,考虑到中国的富裕程
度,中国的工资太低。 许多比中国贫穷的
国家收入更高。
人均GDP(用作平均收入)
中国7,924.7美元
马来西亚$ 9,766.2
加蓬$ 10,966
西欧经济最差的国家是希腊,人均GDP为
18,035.6美元
9. (安东尼博士))
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
One reason why Chinese products are cheaper
and wages are lower is because the Chinese
currency is low.
1 US Dollar equals
6.91 Chinese Yuan
(XE Converter 2017, viewed January 6, 2017)
If the exchange rate were 1 USD = 3.46 Yuan,
The income of Chinese people would double,
but Chinese products would become more
expensive.
Low currency value
中国产品更便宜,工资更低的一个
原因是因为中国的货币很低。
1美元等于6.91元
(XE Converter 2017,阅读1月6
日)
如果汇率是1美元= 3.44元,中国
人的收入会增加一倍,但中国产品
会变得更贵。
10. (安东尼博士))
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
Through September, 2016, China was the largest holder of US foreign debt.
The People’s Bank of China, the China Central Bank was holding CNY 3,121
billion of foreign reserves, mostly US Dollars (Trading Economics 2016).
Macroeconomic theory says: If the Chinese government spent this money, it would
increase the number of US Dollars on the world markets, decreasing the value of US
Dollars, and decreasing the number of Yuan, which would make the Yuan go up in value.
Donald trump accuses China of currency manipulation
截至2016年10月,中国人民银行拥有外汇储备31.2亿
元。 大多数外汇储备是美元。
如果中国政府花这笔钱,就会增加世界市场上美元的
数量。 美元的价值会下降。 此外,世界市场的人民
币数量也会减少。 而元的价值会增加。
11. Charges of currency manipulation are not as simple as they seem.
Things are not so simple: Over the past two years, China has had three major
selloffs of US debt. In August, 2015, they sold $94 Million. In December, 2015, China
sold $18 billion of U.S. Treasury debt. In October 2016, after the Offshore Yuan hit
a record low of more than 6.92 to the US dollar. In December of that year, the
government dumped $41.3 billion in US debt. And yet, in December, the Yuan
(domestic RMB) continued to drop to 6.94.
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
China, and many China watchers reject the charges of currency manipulation
say that China is actually doing everything they can to prop up the Yuan. The
argument is that market factors are driving down the price of the Yuan and the
government is not to blame.
12. Whether China is a currency manipulator or not, the problem for US companies
is that the Yuan is extremely low and appears to be trending downward.
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
One way of dealing with this issue would be for President-elect
Trump to increase tariffs on Chinese imports in order to bring the
prices in line with American products.
13. (安东尼博士))
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
Senator Sanders even published a paper entitled
The Trans-Pacific Trade (TPP) Must be Defeated
(Sanders n.d.).
President-elect Trump wants to leave the TPP because the
TPP commission would make decisions for US workers.
US labor unions want the US to leave the TPP , because
they say the TPP will export American jobs.
US Environmentalists want to leave the TPP because
of potential environmental damage.
Obama administration Democratic party
members, such as Senator Bernie Sanders and
Senator Elizabeth Warren, also oppose the
Partnership.
Donald Trump说他希望美国退出跨
太平洋伙伴关系 (TPP)。
唐纳德·特朗普希望美国退出跨太平
洋伙伴关系因为
TPP委员会是为美国工人做出决定。
美国工会希望美国退出跨太平洋伙伴
关系,因为他们说TPP将输出美国工
作。
由于潜在的环境破坏,美国环保人士
希望美国退出跨太平洋伙伴关系。
奥巴马政府民主党成员,如参议员伯
尼·桑德斯和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦,
也希望美国退出跨太平洋伙伴关系
参议员桑德斯出版了一篇题为“跨太
平 洋 贸 易 ( TPP ) 必 须 击 败 ”
(Sanders n.d.)的文件。
14. The US runs a trade deficit with nearly all of the TPP members.
Most TPP members charge higher tariffs on US exports than we charge on
their imports
Many TPP countries have barriers preventing American companies from
investing in certain sectors.
TPP partners have state-owned banks, and grant unfair trade subsidies to
their state-owned enterprises.
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
The US leaving the TPP creates opportunity for China, whether to
fill the vacant seat in the TPP, or through promoting the RECP
(Campbell 2016)
Reasons to leave the TPP
15. (安东尼博士))
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
China proposed forming the Regional
Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RECP),
RECP includes the ten Asian countries: Brunei,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand,
and Vietnam, plus 6 states with whom ASEAN
has standing free trade agreements: China,
Japan, India, South Korea, Australia New
Zealand (Carlson 2016).
The US leaving the TPP would benefit China
美国退出TPP将有利于中国
中国提议成立区域经济全面伙伴关系
(RECP),RECP包括十个亚洲国家:
文莱,柬埔寨,印度尼西亚,老挝,
马来西亚,缅甸,菲律宾,新加坡,
泰国和越南,加上东盟有6个国家 贸易
协议:中国,日本,印度,韩国,澳
大利亚新西兰(Carlson 2016)。 美
国离开TPP为中国创造机会,无论是填
补TPP中的空缺席位,还是通过推广
RECP(Campbell 2016)
16. (安东尼博士))
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
A third option for Beijing is to promote the Free Trading Area of the Asia
Pacific (FTAAP). Chinese President Xijinping has also called on his
trading partners to increase the FTAAP (Carlson 2016).
The Free Trading Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP).
北京的第三个选择是促进亚太自由贸易区(FTAAP)。
中国总统习近平也呼吁他的贸易伙伴增加FTAAP
(Carlson 2016)。
17. (安东尼博士))
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
Donald Trump has stated that he would levy a 45% tariff on Chinese goods.
Some argue that this tariff would be in violation of WTO agreements (Reuters 2016).
Donald Trump’s Proposed Tariffs on Chinese goods
唐纳德·特朗普对中国商品的建议关税
唐纳德·特朗普表示,他将对中国商品征收45%的
关税。 一些人认为,这种关税将违反WTO协议
(路透社2016)。
Trump says that China’s unfair trade practices are already
a violation of the WTO.
18. (安东尼博士))
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
If the US raises tariffs against Chinese products, China could raise tariffs against
US products. American airplane manufacturers, automakers and makers of
farm machinery, and US soybean exporters (Bradsherbov 2016 and Smith et. al. 2016).
Economists argue that a trade war could start
Although a trade war would most likely hurt the surplus country, China,
more, it would also hurt the US.
经济学家认为贸易战争可以开始
如果美国提高对中国产品的关税,中国可以提高对美国产品的关税。 美
国飞机制造商,汽车制造商和农业机械制造商,以及美国大豆出口商
(Bradsherbov 2016和Smith等人2016)。
19. (安东尼博士))
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
US consumer goods manufacturers, such as Nike or Apple, could simply relocate
their China-based manufacturing facilities to Indonesia or Vietnam (Smith et. al.
2016). But even if they relocate, the jobs will not return to the US.
因为中国有贸易顺差,贸易战争很可能伤害中国,
超过美国。 但贸易战争也会伤害美国。
美国消费品公司,如耐克或苹果,可能将他们在中
国的制造设施迁移到印度尼西亚或越南(Smith等人
2016)。 但即使他们搬迁,工作也不会回到美国。。
And these US companies would lose their China markets.
20. (安东尼博士))
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
Moody’s ran a simulation to see what the effects of the Trump-China
Tariff would be. In the short run, it hurt the Chinese economy, but
in the long run, it caused a recession in the US, and eventually
crippled the global economy. The Trump tariff was compared to
when President Herbert Hoover increased tariffs in 1929, with the
Smoot-Hawley Act, which experts feel is what drove the US and the
world deeper into The Great Depression (Schmitz 2016).
穆迪的计算机模拟确定,贸易关税将在短期内伤害中国经济。
但从长远来看,这将导致美国经济衰退。 它最终会削弱全球经
济。
一些专家说,特朗普的关税类似于美国总统赫伯特·胡佛在1929
年增加关税。专家认为这种关税恶化了1929年的经济大萧条
(Schmitz 2016)
21. (安东尼博士))
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
Currently, The Office of the United States Trade Representative
(2016) sets US exports to China at more than $161 billion. Fears
are that if a trade war escalated US exports to China would stop.
And this number could increase with a free trade agreement.
Experts against a China tariff
Schuman (2016) reporting for Bloomberg.com, suggested
that Trump’s best China strategy would be to arrange a free
trade agreement.
China has a tremendous population with an economy
growing at the rate of around 6% per year. China now
represents an extremely attractive market of more than 1.3
billion consumers with a per capita GDP of over $7,000 per
year, according to the World Bank (2016).
有的专家建议不要对
中国进口增加关税
Schuman (2016)
reporting for
Bloomberg.com,他
建议特朗普最好的中
国战略是安排自由贸
易协定。中国人口众
多。
经济增长率超过6%。
现在,中国是一个非
常有吸引力的市场。
中国有13亿消费者,
每年人均GDP超过
7000美元,根据世
界银行(2016)。
22. Author’s recommendation: The US and China could
come to the negotiation table and see if a compromise
could be reached by which the US leader would feel
the playing field was fair, after which, a free trade or
expanded freed trade agreement could be reached.
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
Conclusion
The US leaving the Transpacific Partnership (TPP)
would benefit China, either through China filling the
US seat in the TPP, or leading the the Regional
Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RECP), or the
Free Trading Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP).
The US levying a 45% tariff against Chinese imports
would probably hurt China worse than the US, but in
the long run, it would hurt both countries, and in an
extreme scenario, it could destroy the world economy.
结论
美国离开太平洋伙伴关系(TPP)将
使中国通过填补美国在TPP中的席位,
或领导区域经济综合伙伴关系(RECP)
或亚太自由贸易区(FTAAP),而受
益。
美国对中国进口征收45%的关税可能
与美国相比会更加伤害中国,但从长
远来看,它会伤害两国,在极端情况
下,它可能摧毁世界经济。
作者的建议:美国和中国可以进入谈
判桌,看看是否可以达成妥协,美国
领导人认为公平竞争的领域之后,可
以达成自由贸易或扩大的自由贸易协
定。
23. In December, 2016, The U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee
(FOMC) increased the interest rate by 0.25%.
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
Increase capital flight – Possibly increased private Chinese investment in the US
The Dollar will continue to rise
The Yuan will continue to drop
Chinese foreign investment may slow down.
Chinese companies borrowing in US Dollars will decrease
Chinese non-performing loans will increase
Servicing foreign debt will become more difficult for Chinese firms.
Chinese products will become even cheaper in the US.
US exports will become even more expensive in China.
The impact on the Chinese economy
24. Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
1. The cost of borrowing will increase
2. If you are selling goods in China, you will see a slowdown of orders.
3. Start looking for other export markets
4. Whether a trade war breaks out or not products and components
from China will become more expensive.
5. Prepare to find new suppliers
What this all means for US small business owners
25. 1. Increased Chinese capital flight -If you sell real-estate or investments make
sure you are positioned in such a way that Chinese people would know about
you.
2. American goods will become more competitive, which should increase
sales.
3. If taxes and tariffs are increased on US firms in China, they will relocate.
Some may come home. This could create competition or opportunity for you.
4. Opportunity – Prepare to sell goods and services to returning firms
5. If you invest in debt markets, Chinese nonperforming debt from state
owned enterprises will be sold cheaply.
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
Oportunities
26. If you know any organization that may want to hear a presentation
about US-China trade, or
If you know of a publisher that would be interested in publishing my
articles, papers, or my book about US-China trade
Please let me know.
Antonio Graceffo
(安东尼博士))
27. Dr. Antonio Graceffo, PhD, China MBA (安东尼博士)
School of Economics Shanghai University
Contact: antonio_garecffo@hotmail.com
Linkedin:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/antoniograceffo
Antonio Graceffo (安东尼博士)
谢谢大家听我的报告