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trend analysis
as the first step of the
design process
aga szóstek(at)gmail.com
where do the trends come from?
-  observation of new technologies (military!)
-  observation of industrial developments: transportation,
electronics, sports, home equipment, food industry, etc.
-  research regarding social and consumer behaviours
(lifestyles, demographics, politics, economics,
environment)
-  analysis of the public space such as bus stops, airports,
cafes, etc.
Zuzanna Skalska – trend watcher
aging of our societies influences
the health system
medical care moves away
from the hospitals to homes
visible change
in the health insurance policies
and also bedroom furniture standards
the current „medical”furniture
used to support elderly at home
is ugly and inconvenient
furniture producers change
the shape and functionality
of bedroom equipment
trend analysis is a method
to find information in
order to discover patterns
trend
scanning
trend scouting
trend
verification
opportunity
mapping
indirect observation
of consumer lifestyle
aspirations
research analysis
verification of
existing trends
direct observation
of consumer lifestyle
in context
substantiation
of trends
and lifestyle issues
in context
direct contact
with consumers
in context
eliciting lifestyle
aspirations for
today, tomorrow
and dreams
decoding of issues
and opportunities
identifying winning
design characteristics
generating multiple
concept directions
microtrend
half-a-portion:
9cm pizza in Pizza Hut
miditrend downsizing
maxitrend simple life
macrotrend deconsumption
macro- and microtrends
microtrend Farm to fork
miditrend ecological eating
maxitrend eco friendliness
macrotrend ecological lifestyle
influence
macro- and microtrends
macrotrends
based on:
“Creative Man: The Future Consumer,
Employee and Citizen”przygotowanym
przez
The Copenhagen Institute for Futures
Studies
1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +
society industrial dream creative
1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +
society industrial dream creative
organization hierarchy company values network
1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +
society industrial dream creative
organization hierarchy company values network
motivation material needs,
comfort and
security
social needs and
dreams
self-
development,
values and
challenges
1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +
society industrial dream creative
organization hierarchy company values network
motivation material needs,
comfort and
security
social needs and
dreams
self-
development,
values and
challenges
workspace good quality
physical working
space
a place enabling
interesting social
contacts
a place providing
possibilities for
being creative
1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 +
society industrial dream creative
organization hierarchy company values network
motivation material needs,
comfort and
security
social needs and
dreams
self-
development,
values and
challenges
workspace good quality
physical working
space
a place enabling
interesting social
contacts
a place providing
possibilities for
being creative
employee manageable loyal innovative
the main consequences of
the upcoming changes are:
-  the end of
the abundance era
-  integration of
the producer and the consumer
into a prosument
microtrends
POP-UP CULTURE
catch me before I disapear!
Zalando	
  Pop-­‐Up	
  Store	
  
SHOWROOMING
viewing offline buying online
over 30% of
people worldwide
admit to showrooming
21% uses a mobile
phone to do so
SELF GIFTING
a gift to myslef
SOCIAL SHOPPING
buying together
MIY„MAKE IT YOURSELF”
I can do it myslef
SIMPLEXITY
complex simple prducts
trend mapping
how about technological trends?
„There is solid data from national research council saying that
every new idea by the time it reaches maturity takes about 20
years. Every technology of today has been most likely first built 10
to 20 years earlier. And tell me that it’s fast moving…”
Bill Buxton
It took a mouse 30 years
from the moment it was built in 1965
to the moment it became ubiquitous in 1995
	
  
one of the first
calculator watches
by Citizen (1979)
	
  
Kinect was first built in 1999
at Microsoft research labs
before it became a commercial success in 2009
iPronto (2001)
a commercialized attempt by Philips
to build a tablet
ubiquity
is not the problem,
transparency is
technology push – because it is possible
focus on the product
and the need behind it
rather than technology
just a shoe
something quite bigger than
just a shoe
“The true voyage of discovery
is not to go to new places
but to have other eyes.”
Marcel Proust
“The future is already here
it’s just not very evenly distributed.”
William Gibson
references
Creative Man: The Future Consumer, Employee and Citizen - The
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies - www.isn.ethz.ch/
Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?ots591=0c54e3b3-1e9c-
be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233&lng=en&id=56090
“Teczka Trendów 2014”– 4P Research Mix www.4prm.com/trendy/
teczka_trendow.html
What’s next - www.nowandnext.com
360 Inspiration Blog - www.360inspiration.nl
Trendwatching - trendwatching.com/x/wp-content/uploads/
2014/06/2014-07-INNOVATION-CELEBRATION.pdf
IDEO - www.ideo.com/images/uploads/news/pdfs/
Empathy_on_the_Edge.pdf

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Trend analysis as the first step of the design process

  • 1. trend analysis as the first step of the design process aga szóstek(at)gmail.com
  • 2. where do the trends come from? -  observation of new technologies (military!) -  observation of industrial developments: transportation, electronics, sports, home equipment, food industry, etc. -  research regarding social and consumer behaviours (lifestyles, demographics, politics, economics, environment) -  analysis of the public space such as bus stops, airports, cafes, etc. Zuzanna Skalska – trend watcher
  • 3. aging of our societies influences the health system medical care moves away from the hospitals to homes visible change in the health insurance policies and also bedroom furniture standards the current „medical”furniture used to support elderly at home is ugly and inconvenient furniture producers change the shape and functionality of bedroom equipment
  • 4. trend analysis is a method to find information in order to discover patterns
  • 5. trend scanning trend scouting trend verification opportunity mapping indirect observation of consumer lifestyle aspirations research analysis verification of existing trends direct observation of consumer lifestyle in context substantiation of trends and lifestyle issues in context direct contact with consumers in context eliciting lifestyle aspirations for today, tomorrow and dreams decoding of issues and opportunities identifying winning design characteristics generating multiple concept directions
  • 6. microtrend half-a-portion: 9cm pizza in Pizza Hut miditrend downsizing maxitrend simple life macrotrend deconsumption macro- and microtrends
  • 7. microtrend Farm to fork miditrend ecological eating maxitrend eco friendliness macrotrend ecological lifestyle influence macro- and microtrends
  • 9. based on: “Creative Man: The Future Consumer, Employee and Citizen”przygotowanym przez The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
  • 10. 1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 + society industrial dream creative
  • 11. 1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 + society industrial dream creative organization hierarchy company values network
  • 12. 1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 + society industrial dream creative organization hierarchy company values network motivation material needs, comfort and security social needs and dreams self- development, values and challenges
  • 13. 1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 + society industrial dream creative organization hierarchy company values network motivation material needs, comfort and security social needs and dreams self- development, values and challenges workspace good quality physical working space a place enabling interesting social contacts a place providing possibilities for being creative
  • 14. 1890 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 + society industrial dream creative organization hierarchy company values network motivation material needs, comfort and security social needs and dreams self- development, values and challenges workspace good quality physical working space a place enabling interesting social contacts a place providing possibilities for being creative employee manageable loyal innovative
  • 15. the main consequences of the upcoming changes are: -  the end of the abundance era -  integration of the producer and the consumer into a prosument
  • 17. POP-UP CULTURE catch me before I disapear!
  • 20.
  • 21. over 30% of people worldwide admit to showrooming 21% uses a mobile phone to do so
  • 22. SELF GIFTING a gift to myslef
  • 23.
  • 25.
  • 26. MIY„MAKE IT YOURSELF” I can do it myslef
  • 27.
  • 29.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 35. „There is solid data from national research council saying that every new idea by the time it reaches maturity takes about 20 years. Every technology of today has been most likely first built 10 to 20 years earlier. And tell me that it’s fast moving…” Bill Buxton
  • 36. It took a mouse 30 years from the moment it was built in 1965 to the moment it became ubiquitous in 1995  
  • 37. one of the first calculator watches by Citizen (1979)  
  • 38.
  • 39. Kinect was first built in 1999 at Microsoft research labs before it became a commercial success in 2009
  • 40. iPronto (2001) a commercialized attempt by Philips to build a tablet
  • 41.
  • 42. ubiquity is not the problem, transparency is
  • 43. technology push – because it is possible
  • 44. focus on the product and the need behind it rather than technology
  • 46. something quite bigger than just a shoe
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51. “The true voyage of discovery is not to go to new places but to have other eyes.” Marcel Proust
  • 52.
  • 53.
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