The document contains charts analyzing the Toronto housing market from June 2012. It shows trends in home sales, new listings, average prices, and sales-to-listing ratios from 2009-2012. Seasonal patterns and year-over-year comparisons are examined. Higher sales-to-listing ratios generally correspond to greater price growth. Affordability is also assessed based on income needed for a mortgage, taxes and utilities on an average-priced home.
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Toronto housing market charts - April 2012Amit Saini
Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,350 transactions through the TorontoMLS system in April 2012. This level of sales was 18 per cent higher than the 8,778 firm deals reported in April 2011. The strongest sales growth was reported in the single-detached market segment, with transactions of this home type up by 22 per cent compared to a year ago.
“Interest in single-detached homes has been very high, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions. Growth in single-detached listings has not kept up with demand, which means competition between buyers in this market segment increased. With this in mind, it was no surprise that the strongest annual price increase was also experienced in the single-detached segment,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President, Richard Silver.
The average price for April 2012 transactions was $517,556 – up 8.5 per cent compared to April 2011. While price growth was strongest for single-detached homes, the better-supplied condominium apartment segment experienced a more moderate annual rate of price growth, at four per cent.
“Monthly mortgage payments remain affordable for home buyers in the Greater Toronto Area. While interest rates are generally expected to increase over the next two years, the extent and timing of rate hikes has been thrown into question by slower than expected economic growth in the first quarter of this year. On net, borrowing costs are expected to remain a positive factor influencing home sales through 2012,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
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2. TorontoMLS Sales
Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
12,000 2009 2010 2011 2012
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales for the current year and the previous three years. The
recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
3. TorontoMLS New Listings
Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
25,000
2009 2010 2011 2012
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings for the current year and the previous three
years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each
month.
4. TorontoMLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
1.10 2009 2010 2011 2012
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) for the current year and the previous
three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
When the SNLR moves higher, annual average price growth generally increases – often at a rate well above inflation.
When the SNLR moves lower, annual average price growth generally declines and can become negative.
5. TorontoMLS Average Resale Home Price
Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison
$550,000 2009 2010 2011 2012
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® average home price for the current year and the
previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous
years for each month.
6. TorontoMLS Sales
Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
12,000
Actual MLS® Sales
10,000
Trend (12-Month Moving Average)
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® sales since January 1995. The blue line shows actual sales. The brown
line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other
irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual sales must occur to change the direction of the trend.
7. TorontoMLS New Listings
Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
22,000
20,000 Actual MLS® New Listings
18,000 Trend (12-Month Moving Average)
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings since January 1995. The blue line shows actual new listings.
The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other
irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual new listings must occur to change the direction of the trend.
8. TorontoMLS Average Price
Monthly Time Series with Trend Line
575,000
Actual MLS® Average Price
525,000
475,000 Trend (12-Month Moving Average)
425,000
375,000
325,000
275,000
225,000
175,000
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® average price since January 1995. The blue line shows the actual average
price. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or
other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual average price must occur to change the direction of the
trend.
9. TorontoMLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Compared to
Average Annual Per Cent Change in Home Price
Average Price Annual Per Cent Change
1.20 25%
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
1.00 20%
15%
(Brown Line)
0.80
(Blue Line)
10%
0.60 5%
0.40 0%
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio -5%
0.20 -10%
Average Price Annual Per Cent Change
0.00 -15%
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Explanation: This chart plots the monthly sales-to-new listings ratio (blue line) with year-over-year average annual per
cent price change (brown line). When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves higher, average annual per cent change in
home prices generally trends higher. When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves lower, average annual per cent change
in home prices generally trends lower.
10. TREB Affordability Indicator
Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest,
Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada
Explanation: This chart plots the share of average household income that goes toward mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities
for the average priced home in the GTA subject to the following assumptions:
1. Average annual or year-to-date home price as reported by TREB
2. 20 per cent down payment
3. Average 5-year fixed mortgage rate (Statistics Canada); 25-year amortization
4. Average property tax rate reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending
5. Average utilities cost reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending and components of the Consumer Price Index
6. Average household income reported by the Census of Canada. Years in between Censuses estimated using interpolation (years up to 2005) or annual growth in average weekly earnings reported by
Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey (2006 onward).