This document summarizes a research project studying the health effects of traffic pollution in London. The project has multiple work packages including (1) analyzing air quality metrics and their relationship to health outcomes, (2) modeling population exposure to traffic pollution, and (3) epidemiological studies of long-term exposure and health effects. The goal is to better understand the toxicity of traffic pollution sources and develop exposure-response relationships to inform policy scenarios. The project is a collaboration between King's College London and Imperial College London with input from advisory boards.

1. Traffic Pollution and Health in London
EEHI-ESEI Meeting
12th March 2013
Ross Anderson, KCL and SGUL
Sean Beevers, KCL
MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health
Imperial College
London

2. Traffic Pollution and Health in London:
NERC/MRC 2011-2014
PI: Frank Kelly, King’s College London
King’s College – Ross Anderson, Sean Beevers, Gary Fuller, Martin
Williams
Imperial College – Mireille Toledano, Marta Blangiardo, John Gulliver,
Sylvia Richardson
St George’s UOL – Richard Atkinson, Derek Cook, Peter Whincup
LSH&TM – Paul Wilkinson, Cathryn Tonne
Other collaborators:
Dick Derwent, Margaret Bell, Ben Armstrong, Mike Ashmore, David Green,
Anna Hansell, Paul Elliott MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health
Imperial College
London

3. The Problem:
Uncertainties about the Health Effects of
Traffic Pollution (HEI 2009)
• Wide and expanding range of health effects
• Sources and components
• Population exposure
• Exposure-response relationships
MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health
Imperial College
London

4. Why London?
• Severe traffic pollution (> EU limits for PM and NO2)
• Variability in population exposure
• Traffic interventions (CCS, LEZ)
• High density monitoring network
• Extensive traffic data (including ANPR)
• Fine spatial scale models (20x20m)
• Detailed daily analysis of chemical composition and
oxidative potential of PM (ClearfLo)
• Availability of a health outcomes from cradle to grave
• Multidisciplinary consortium of experienced investigators
MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health
Imperial College
London

5. NOx, Borough of Lambeth 2005 London annual mean NOx (20x20m) 2004
Histogram of NOx values in 158,493 London postcodes
30%
NO x D e c ile s we r e de f ine d a s
25% 1 = 2 1. 7 t o 3 7 . 7
160 2 = 37.8 to 42.4
3 = 42.4 to 46.1
20% 4 = 46.2 to 49.9
-3
Percentage
140
NO X concentration in 2005 µ g m
5 = 49.9 to 54.2
6 = 54.2 to 58.8
15% 7 = 58.8 to 63.7
120
8 = 63.7 to 69.9
9 = 69.9 to 82.1
100 10%
80
5%
60
0%
528000 529000 530000 531000 532000 533000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200+
Easting (m) Modelled NOx value for postcode
Transect. NOx 2005 % distribution of NOx for population of London

6. Proposed Research Programme
“Deliverables”
• Relative toxicity of air pollution from traffic
sources using linked in vitro and in populo
studies
• “Hybrid” model of exposure to traffic pollution
• Quantification of relationship between traffic
pollution (air and noise) and a suite of health
outcomes
MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health
Imperial College
London

7. Organisation of Research Programme
Management Team Advisory Board
Kelly/Anderson
Reps from: Defra, GLA, Tfl, HPA, EA
POLICY RELEVANCE (lead: Williams)
Work package 1 Work package 2 Work package 3
Analysis of AQ metrics Modelling population exposure to Chronic exposure health
Time-series study traffic pollution studies
(Anderson/Cook/ToledanoTonne/Whi
(Atkinson/Fuller/Mudway) (Beevers/Gulliver) ncup/Wilkinson)
VULNERABILITY (lead: Tonne)
Core facilities
Air quality and noise SAHSU Statistics
science (Armstrong/Atkinson
(Ashmore/Bell (Toledano/Hansell/ Elliott) Blangiardo/Cook/
Derwent/Green) Richardson)
MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health
Imperial College
London

8. WP1: PM Oxidative Potential and
Exploitation of NERC ClearfLo project
1. Oxidative potential and metal composition
• 2yrs 24hr samples from urban background site
1. Collection and analysis of ClearfLo data
• PM size, number, source apportionment
1. Time-series analysis of ClearfLo data to
investigate relative toxicity of PM metrics.
• Data from 1 and 2 and daily deaths and hospital
admissions.
MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health
Imperial College
London

9. WP2: Modelling of population exposure
to traffic pollution
1. Development of hybrid model of time activity and
human exposure to traffic pollution
• Apply to policy scenarios – Mayor’s AQ Strategy
1. Develop GIS-based noise modelling and mapping
capabilities across Greater London
2. Apply traffic pollution exposure models to spatio-
temporal epidemiological studies
• Existing LAQDM 20x20m2 grid link to address/postcode (NOx,
NO2, exhaust- and non-exhaust PM10 and PM2.5)
• Noise
• Traffic weighted proximity to roads
MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health
Imperial College
London

10. WP3: Epidemiological Studies of Health
Effects of Long-term Exposure to Traffic
Pollution
1. Adverse birth outcomes – low birthweight, preterm birth
2. Early markers and risk factors for vascular disease,
markers of chronic inflammation and lung function in
primary school children
3. Primary care records: incidence and exacerbation of
cardiovascular and respiratory conditions
4. Mortality, hospital admissions, survival after admission
for acute coronary syndrome
MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health
Imperial College
London

11. WP3: Approaches in common
• Link with modelled exposure at fine spatial scale
through address (or postcode)
• Use of spatial-temporal analyses to address
potential spatial confounding
• Evaluation of effects of changes in air quality
• Coordination of analyses
• Objective of developing exposure response
relationships that fit with exposure modelling for
impact analysis and scenario evaluation
MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health
Imperial College
London

12. Traffic Pollution and Health in London:
Gantt Chart: update March 2013
MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health
Imperial College
London

13. THANK YOU
MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health
Imperial College
London