A short essay I wrote for a final year university module on future forecasting methods and the future in tech. Written in 2006 - still relevant today.

1. “The Future is here it’s just not evenly
distributed”
(Gibson, W. cited O'Reilly T., 2002)
Anna Kulinskaya 30.11.2006

2. Table of Contents
1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................3
2. Forecasting.....................................................................................................................................3
2.1. What is Forecasting?...............................................................................................................3
2.2. Methods of Forecasting ..........................................................................................................3
2.3. Problems of Forecasting .........................................................................................................4
2.4. The Goals of Forecasting........................................................................................................5
3. Forecasts from the media industry ..............................................................................................5
3.1. Web Empowerment ................................................................................................................5
3.2. User Generated Content..........................................................................................................5
3.3. Folksonomy ............................................................................................................................6
3.4. Customisation .........................................................................................................................7
3.5. E-Learning..............................................................................................................................7
3.6. E-commerce............................................................................................................................8
3.7. The Digital Home ...................................................................................................................9
3.8. Making Technologies Good....................................................................................................9
4. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................10
5. References ....................................................................................................................................11

3. 1. Introduction
“We should all be concerned about the future because we will have to spend the rest of our lives there”
stated inventor Charles F. Kettering (cited M.Tambini, 2004, p6). Today, organisations have to innovate
consistently to maximise sales, profits and reputations. In order to innovate successfully companies
must look forward to the future to predict trends and failures. This report attempts to summarise and
contrast views of the future from the media industry and identify key messages for arising from these
views. This report will also discuss and critically evaluate some tools available to organisations to help
predict the future.
2. Forecasting
2.1. What is Forecasting?
The International Institute of Forecasters (IIF), (2006) declares forecasting as "approaches to
determining the future". By utilising a mixture of judgemental and empirical forecasting methods, a
view of the future may emerge, to assist organisations in preparing to meet the challenges of
conducting business in an increasingly networked, 24-hour prosumer (Tapscott, 2000) driven society.
2.2. Methods of Forecasting
All methods of forecasting are troubled with problems of accuracy and quality because ultimately the
future cannot be predicted fully. Faulty predictions tend to look somewhat silly in light of successes, as
an infamous quote from IBM Chairman Thomas Watson (1943, cited Coburn 2006) demonstrates: "I
think there is there is a world market for maybe 5 computers". Nevertheless, forecasting does have
some methods of particular use to the media industry.
Methods include simulation, observations, the Delphi method, surveys, scenario building and
technology forecasting. These aspects of forecasting are placed under an umbrella title of “judgmental
methods” (Wikipedia, 2006). Judgemental methods use a mix of expert opinion, observation and
empirical research to create informed conclusions about the future.

4. Role playing and simulation are both easy and inexpensive ways for companies to predict the impacts
of the future on their businesses. Popular methods in web development for predicting user behaviour
are personas - mechanisms which allow developers “to capture insight, as opposed to collecting data”
(Coburn, 2006, p210). All these methods allow a user experience to be captured and analysed. The
downside to these is that users tend not to do what is expected of them. White (2003) mentions that
users will often have no idea of what they want other than a product which is free, fast and good.
Another method for forecasting the future is asking for expert opinions. This is the foundation for the
Delphi Method (Wikipedia, 2006) where opinions are obtained in a two step process. Generally for
organisations this does mean going to some cost of time and expense, however the forecasts provided
tend to be accurate and of high quality if with a little bias (J.Armstrong, 2001). Asking for expert opinion
is the basis of the Futures conference held by the London College of Communication (LCC).
2.3. Problems of Forecasting
Today organisations tend to believe that based on sound research methodologies, forecasting can
provide an accurate picture of the future however the IIF (2006) cautions that forecasting is not the
same as planning and that a forecast about the future should not be changed because it doesn’t suit an
organisation’s goals.
Another difficulty of forecasting in the media industry is the rate of change: “People mistakenly think
that once they’ve graduated from university they are good for the next decade – when they’re really
good for the next ten seconds” (R. Sodeberg, cited D.Tapscott, 1998). It’s difficult to make predictions
when the present and the future are constantly shifting.
Finally, future casting does not always take into account newest developments from niche groups. Such
developments as AJAX (as defined by the Adaptive Path group, 2005) have largely gone unnoticed by
business strategists until Google had implemented this technology.

5. 2.4. The Goals of Forecasting
Perhaps then the goal of forecasting the future is to understand and learn from today’s mistakes or
successes in order to bring about a cultural shift in the media and technology environment? Coburn
(2006) argues that success comes to those organisations that are able to focus on the needs of the users
rather then on technology for technology’s sake.
A key theme that emerged from the LCC’s Futures conference has been that of focusing on the needs
of user is one of the most important things for an organisation’s success in the future. This view is
echoed by technology strategists such as Coburn who stated (2006) that companies should change
their business focus to concentrate on technology that is user-driven.
3. Forecasts from the media industry
3.1. Web Empowerment
Interface designer, Roberto (2006), an LCC alumnus, argues that the user's needs should always come
first when designing a product. He feels that it is necessary to empower the user by providing
communication networks and facilities that allowed the user to contribute to a body of content. The
LCC alumni suggested that the way to make sure users' needs are placed first is to incorporate
disciplines such as accessibility (making products available to disabled users or different devices (WAI,
2006)), web standards (through the use of up to date World Wide Web Consortium (W3C, 2006)
technologies) , usability (trying to ensure that a computer system is as easy and efficient as possible
(Neilsen, 1999)) and not making assumptions about the availability of technologies that users may use
to connect to a particular web site would all help in making the web a better place for users.
3.2. User Generated Content
A slightly less simplistic discussion of the issues in making products was provided by A. M. Peters (2006).
Peters’ key problems were dealing with user generated content and user generated metadata. Peters’

6. particular concerns were with regards to storage and display of data and creating a revenue stream
from user generated content. In the recent future a large problem for businesses will be monetising
their databases of user-generated content. Amazon are an example of a business that have succeeded
in this arena – their reviews system leverages the free time and writing talent of their clients to provide
a cheap and effective value-added services to all parties (O'Reilly, 2005).
O’Reilly (2005) describes that harnessing collective intelligence is a key to market domination in the
Web 2.0 world. Peters' organisation is researching technologies that could make user generated video
pay – perhaps through hot links in video clips to advertisers’ websites. The problem of revenue
generation is echoed throughout the business world: user generated content and social networks are
seen as an exciting business area but not many businesses are finding investment into these areas
profitable. (BBC, 2006)
3.3. Folksonomy
Another area seen to be valuable and profitable by Peters is the folksonomy (O’Reilly, 2005) or tagging.
Tagging allows a user to define an information architecture that is to their personal liking by allowing
them associate meta data with an item of content. The value of tagging in user centred design is due to
the fact that the user experience of the content is customisable and flexible. Tagging however is not a
new invention – Vanevar Bush predicted tagging in 1945: "Selection by association, rather than
indexing, may yet be mechanized."

7. 3.4. Customisation
Tapscott (2000) says that in the future not only data but physical objects will be customisable to the
consumers' needs. Today companies such as Converse 1
(2006), Dell2
(2006), and Bodymetrics (2006)3
are already providing users with tools that let them customise a product. The product gets ordered,
created and dispatched with the assistance of digital networks. This means that organisations no longer
need to store large amounts of parts or employ armies of telesales staff as per traditional mail order
model thus significantly cutting operational and increasing consumer satisfaction. Tapscott (2000)
suggests that users, whom he calls "prosumers", are increasingly interested in highly customisable
products – and this trend is not just visible in the consumer space but also manifests itself as
personalised learning and the digital home.
3.5. E-Learning
Lacey (2006) argues that people are inherently bad at presenting information via computers and that
to successfully transmit information between users it must be “differentiated and over coded”. In this
context that means that information must be presented in multiple ways for assimilation by different
users – or customised. Lacey (2006) goes on to say that e-Learning ultimately doesn’t work because it
fails to differentiate and it does not take into account that learning is context dependent. E-Learning is
not user centric.
Personalised e-learning is a favoured area for future development. With 87% of computers in secondary
schools already networked (DfES, 2003), the Department for Education seems interested in
opportunities that promote the use of IT (BBC, 2006). According to Tapscott (2006) learning is moving
away from a broadcast model to an interactive model: in the future teachers will become leaders and
1
Converse allow an internet user to customise a pair of trainers by providing an interface for selecting outer and inner colours,
laces, colour or rubber strip, adding text and choosing a pattern (Converse 2006).
2
Dell allows all clients to customise computers hardware and software before purchase (Dell, 2006).
3
Bodymetrics creates a 3D profile of a consumer's body through the use of 3D scanning techniques. This profile then gets used
to create tailor-made clothing which can be ordered on the internet (Bodymetrics 2006).

8. facilitators. Tapscott states that “the digital media enables students to be treated as individuals” (2000,
p146) which inherently means that the development of products for the digital classroom must be
customised and user-centred.
Lacey’s (2006) core arguments are that information must be presented in a structured and hierarchical
manner to avoid informational overload He also argues that e-Learning is anti-social and that
technologists do not take into account the social aspects of learning. Lacey (2006) states that “e-
Learning CANNOT work”. This is because data found online is fundamentally unstructured and does not
promote deep learning. These ideas seem to be based on the idea of information consumption for
instant gratification rather then for any greater purpose (McLuhan, 1964). The global village, where
netizens consume information daily and with more rapidity then ever before is an environment where
all lives are interconnected through technology that does not promote community or social interaction.
3.6. E-commerce
A darker view of the future has been predicted by Linford (2006). He also suggests technology is de-
socialising society and that the traditional high street will become obsolete due to e-commerce. This
will create a society which is both isolated and insular. The flip-side of e-commerce stores becoming
good at customisation and user-centred design is that consumers no longer need to leave their houses
except for access to essential physical services. However, for M.Dertouzos (2001) e-commerce will
greatly improve the productivity of various businesses. A case study written by Dertouzos (2006) for a
human-centric house buying process demonstrated that e-commerce speeds up purchasing for all
parties. Luckily, M.Tambini (2004) predicts that electronic shopping will dominate only from 2014 (long
after global electronic currency comes into use in 2007). This prediction leaves society some time to
consider how to best cope with the removal of identikit corporations more concerned with making
profit at all costs then with serving the needs of their users (N.Klein, 2001).

9. 3.7. The Digital Home
Tambini (2004) predicts that in 2020 we might be living in homes with technology that reacts to the
needs of its inhabitants. Such technology could provide users with showers that double as health-
monitoring stations, dining-room tables that are linked to communications networks for having a
shared dinner with distant relatives, and homework helpers like the holoprojector which could assist
with maths problems by modelling geographic surfaces in 3D (Tambini, 2004). Dertouzos (2001) also
likes the idea of a digital building that is focused on the needs of its users: he has created a computer
system called the Enviro21 which is embedded into a user’s stationary environment. The Enviro21
communicates and manages all electronic devices to make sure that the user is able to completely
control their environment by issuing voice command. (Dertouzos believes that natural language voice
based interaction is crucial to building user-centric systems.) Digital homes are no longer the future:
the BBC (2006) has reported that 100 new homes have been built and 30 000 more have been planned
in South Korea.
A negative side to the digital home has been brought up by Linford (2006) who argues that the digital
home could become a digital prison if technology decides to prevent either access to data or a function.
Linford however reinforces the case for user-centric design by asking what would happen if a digital
house suffered from poor design which lead to programming errors and crashes. He sees this as a key
problem because current "technologies are bad".
3.8. Making Technologies Good
Coburn’s (2006) change function counsels that users will only adopt a new technology when the pain
of using it outweighs the problems of not using it. Thus he advises that organisations implement a
strategic shift away from supplier centric patters of behaviours to user centric ones. His vision for
improving technologies includes: an iterative design processes, co-designing products with users,
employing anthropologists to analyse user behaviour, and using various strategies to align the
viewpoints technologists with their users.

10. Dertouzos (2000) too argues that dramatic change must occur before technologies improve – “that
computers [currently] have increased hype more then productivity” (p6). Dertouzos (2006) suggests
that in order to make computers truly useful, innovations such as nomadic software must be
implemented. He argues for a common sense approach to development by making software fit a given
situation, time, place and user. Dertouzos’ solution is an underlying high data network that integrates
both software and hardware devices with highly intuitive natural language interfaces to provide
unobtrusive access to computing when it’s needed - the right information to the right person at the
right time”.
4. Conclusions
To summarise, forecasting the future is a way for companies to learn from mistakes and successes of
the present in order to innovate. Forecasting the future helps companies plan and develop new
strategies for growth.
Many methods of forecasting exist, and judgemental methods appear to be the most suitable for use
in the media industries. Particularly in software development, role playing, user simulations, and
persona designs are fundamental approaches to understanding the nature of a products’ user and their
desires. These methods can help companies ensure that their products are suitable and acceptable for
their audience thus increasing revenue due to increased user satisfaction.
The pivotal themes that have emerged from the Futures conference is that the user holds the key to
product design and that to ensure survival in the future companies must engage with their users today.
The products of the future, whether e-learning or the digital home will be highly customisable and users
will refuse to use a product until using it becomes less difficult then not using it.
On a final note, Tapscott (1998, pX) says that “We should remember that the future is not something
that should be predicted, but rather a goal to be achieved”.

11. 5. References
Armstrong, J. (2001). Principles of Forecasting. Google Books. Internet.
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=PA443&lpg=PA443&ots=QmFebckj0N&dq=forecasting+methods+armstrong&sig
=8aQx4i8Kei3BlUH2h7TVORdoctQ>
BBC. (2006). Lessons offered around the clock. BBC. Internet. Accessed:
20/11/2006. Available from
<http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/5377520.stm>
Bodymetrics. (2006). Bodymetrics Homepage. Bodymetrics. Internet.
Accessed: 17/11/2006. Available from
<http://www.bodymetrics.com/main.html>
Bush, V., (1945). As We May Think. Atlantic Monthly. Internet. Accessed: 15/11/2006. Available from
<http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/194507/bush>
Coburn, P., (2006). The Change Function. City: Portfolio Hardcover.
Converse. (2006). Converse - Design Your Own. Converse. Internet.
Accessed: 20/11/2006. Available from: <http://www.converse.com>
Dell Corporation. (2006). Dell Homepage. Dell Corporation. Internet. Accessed:
21/11/2006. Available from <http://www.dell.co.uk>
Department for Education and Skills (DfES). (2003). Survey of Information and Communications
Technology in Schools 2003. DfES. Internet. Accessed:
20/11/06. Available from
<http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000421/bweb05-2003.pdf>
Dertouzos, M., (2001). The Unfinished Revolution. London: HarperCollins.
Garett, J., (2005). Ajax: A New Approach to Web Applications. Adaptive Path group. Internet. Accessed:
20/11/06. Available from
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12. Jones, R., (2006). High Tech Trends on Show in Spain. BBC. Internet.
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Klein, N., (2000). No Logo. London: Flamingo.
LCC Alumni, (2006). No title available. Futures Conference 2006. (MP3 recording)
Linford, C., (2006). Predicting the Future. Futures Conference 2006. (MP3 recording)
Lacey, I., (2006). No title available. Futures Conference 2006. (MP3 recording)
Mcluhan, M., (2001). Understanding Media. New York: Routledge.
Nielsen, J., (1999). Designing Web Usability. City: New Riders Press
O'Reilly, T., (2002). Inventing the Future. O'Reilly Publishing. Internet.
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O'Reilly, T., (2005). What is Web 2.0? Internet. Accessed: 10/11/2006.
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Peters, A.M., (2006) No title available. Futures Conference 2006. (MP3 recording)
Simmons, D., (2006). Smart Homes a Reality in S Korea. BBC. Internet.
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Tambini, M., (2004). Futures. New York: DK Publishing
Tapscott, D., (1999). Growing up Digital. New York: McGraw-Hill Trade.
Wikipedia. (2006). Forecasting. Wikimedia. Internet. Accessed: 26/11/06.
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13. Web Accessibility Initiatives Group (WAI). (2006). Web Accessibility Initiative. World Wide Web
Consortium (W3C). Internet. Accessed: 20/11/06. Available from:
<http://www.adaptivepath.com/publications/essays/archives/000385.php>
White, S., (2002). New Ideas about New Ideas. Cambridge: Perseus Pub
World Wide Web Consortium (W3C). (2006). W3C Homepage. Internet.
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