Time to Bet on the Cloud?

Time to Bet on the Cloud?
Alexis Richardson
CEO Rabbit Technologies Ltd
July 9 2009
alexis@rabbitmq.com

1
Thursday, 9 July 2009

RabbitMQThank you!

Im in yr serverz,
queueing yr messagez
Photo credit: http://flickr.com/photos/53366513@N00/67046506/


CohesiveFTHybrid solutions allow for cautious migration
20 Cloud
Computing
Startups You
Should Know


Scale is not my problem


Scale is not my problem

Animoto: 50 EC2 slices to 3,500 over 3 days

What CIOs say The future is “cloudy”

58% of CIOs say cloud computing will
cause a radical shift in IT

47% say they're already using it or
actively researching it.

Source: CIO Research cited in “Cloud computing: IT execs see both promise & security issues,
By LAURIANNE MCLAUGHLIN, IDG October 22, 2008


http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/psd

Joyent Mosso Google
AppEngine
FlexiScale
Slice
Host Engine
Amazon Yard
EC2

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/psd

PUBLIC Cloud

conﬁdential 7


Magic?
Cloud computing is IT as a service

Source: The 451 Group


Magic?
Cloud computing is IT as a service

Security
Scalability
Availability
Performance
Cost-effectiveness

Source: The 451 Group


Data (re)liability


Key points The future is “cloudy”

Amazon starts at 10 cents / CPU-hour
- or as little as 3 cents if you block book
EngineYard “Solo” - Rails on EC2 - starts at 18
JPMorgan pay 50 according to 451 Group
Merrill Lynch pay less..
IBM - I’ve heard range of 13-25 cents

But it’s about choice - not just price.

Cloud

... is a business model


Fundamental Theorem of
Cloud: If you can reliably beat
cloud providers on price,
availability, and scalability...
Then you are a cloud provider.


Cheap is good Market conditions place additional emphasis on cost-savings

In uncertain
economic times,
companies look
for immediate
cost-cutting
measures. Cloud computing can
reduce IT costs without
negatively affecting
ongoing operations.
Capital expenditure via
“hardware refresh” vs.
operating expense.


Other people’s money
Software
computers are a
heck of a lot
cheaper to
assemble, deploy,
manage than metal Someone else spending
their capital is way better
than me spending my
capital
I’ll spend my money on
an IT staff that helps me
leverage these two
axioms

Elasticity =
Freedom


Bet on: CHOICE


How big can this be?
2008: ﬁrst real “year of cloud”

MS Azure, VMware, GoGrid,
Mosso, and and and ....

(But ISPs still don’t “get it”)

More cloud services than users?

Much much more to come...

conﬁdential 24


Use Case: Ocean Observatories “Global Twitter for Data”

DMAC

Use Case: Ocean Observatories “Global Twitter for Data”

Service.DomainName

Region Virtual IP

Cloud IPs

DMAC

It’s complicated


The ‘fool proof’ enterprise The future is “cloudy”

Disruption is bad
It must be failure proof
Plans are not subject to change
You can take opportunity without risk
Business is a source of revenue, IT is a source of risk
And IT must justify itself with predictions
Sales people are there to help you (eat)
Machine huggers...


Business expects


Reasonable concerns The future is “cloudy”

Will my apps, tools, and
people still work in the
Will I get ﬁred for this?
exact same way? Is it
cheap to change?

Can I control my infra?
Is it stable?

Migrating sunk
resources is hard. Can I Does the cloud provider
move my whole data have business model that I
center to the cloud? can rely on? What is their
cost of capital?


Clouds don’t care

Amazon’s CTO on Economic Drivers

• Increasing Uncertainty
• Growing Abundance
• Intensifying Competition
• Growing Power of Customers
• Limited access to capital

From Push to Pull – Emerging Model for Mobilizing Resources – John Hagel & John Seely Brown - 2005


Amazon Use Cases

Media Distribution

Scalable Web Sites

Backup and Recovery

Financial Applications

Large-scale Simulation

Elastic Computing


Founded Jan 2008
20+ Million Users
4 of top 10 games on Facebook
20 billion customer minutes per month
(55% of YouTube)

100% AWS


Founded Jan 2008
20+ Million Users
(55% of YouTube)

100% AWS

S3
(games 1-2MB ea)


Founded Jan 2008
20+ Million Users
(55% of YouTube)

100% AWS
EC2
Load
Balancing M1.S M1.S M1.S M1.S

Mid-Tier M1.L M1.L

S3
(games 1-2MB ea)
Database M1.XL

EBS EBS EBS EBS


Produce
Encode
Distribute
Archive


Video Citizen Journalism


4 Weeks!
Video Citizen Journalism


It’s BUSINESS time The future is “cloudy”

MANY Clouds - not just Amazon any more
They are a commercial SERVICE
In production - NO WAIT needed

SIMPLE resource allocation that can be audited
STOP paying if you don’t like your IT provider
Extend your infra in a CONTROLLED way
You are not alone

Would you bet on the cloud

Would you bet on your own infrastructure to scale

Can you save money - or defer expenditure to when it is needed

Will you get ﬁred


Manage expectations

45


Experiment



Ofﬂoad some systems
Some companies begin with the “coffee ordering” system


Make money



Play the peak game Scale conﬁdently

Leverage the cloud for peak
demand or seasonal spikes.


Control



Check your assumptions
Analysts cite security and control top cloud-computing concern

“Cloud computing has unique
attributes that require risk
assessment in areas such as
data integrity, recovery, and
privacy, and an evaluation of
legal issues in areas such as
e-discovery, regulatory
compliance, and auditing,” 1

Customers currently lack
control of security in the cloud.
1. Source: Assessing the Risks of Cloud Computing, Gartner, June 2008.
2. Source: IDC Enterprise Panel, August 2008.
3. InformationWeek Analytics Cloud Computing Survey, September, 2008


Conﬁdence



Use guerilla tactics
Hybrid solutions allow for cautious migration


Would you bet on the cloud

What about data
What about latency
What about regulations


Time to make a stand?


All of this has happened before
and it will all happen again

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_return

Attack of the clones?
CLOUD-OS
LOCK IN

57
(CC) Giara @ﬂickr.com

Defend your data


Open Services?


Open Messaging

Open Cloud = Your Cloud


Would you bet on this?
Number of EC2 Instances

Steady state of ~40 instances

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
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2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 0/
4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/2



Launch of Facebook application


8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
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2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 0/
4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/2


Amazon EC2 easily scaled up
and down to handle additional
traffic
Peak of 3500 instances

Launch of Facebook application


8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00
2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 0/
4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/2



8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00
2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 0/
4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/2


Time to Bet on the Cloud?

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