Thinking critically-session-1

Thinking critically
The key to success in Oxford and Cambridge University interviews
Session 1

Transition from Learning to Thinking
• Watch video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTv4yD6BKlA
• Technique used in video called ‘Misdirection’
• Personal Development coaches also use the idea of
Misdirection to illustrate how our minds filter out information
that might be important but we have been directed away from
• In school you are taught to absorb information and perform the
tasks in the way the teacher expects
• In higher level education, you need to look at problems from
many different perspectives. This may lead you to change the
very question you have been given
• Most importantly, you need to be constantly aware of not being
misdirected by a set of assumptions you either make
yourself .......or others wish you to make!
• This is where Critical Thinking comes in...

What is Critical Thinking?
• Formal definition from National Council for Excellence in
Critical Thinking at http://www.criticalthinking.org
– an intellectually disciplined process of actively and skilfully
conceptualizing, applying, analyzing, synthesizing, and/or
evaluating information gathered from, or generated by,
observation, experience, reflection, reasoning, or communication,
as a guide to belief and action
• Oxford Dictionary definition
– The objective analysis and evaluation of an issue in order to form
a judgment

Simon's and my definition
• Treating all information, however received, with scepticism
until such time as we understand the reliability of the
processes, and the probable veracity of the people, upon
which its supposed truth is based
• In other words
– Routinely and rigorously testing the consistency of all information
received with other reliable sources and everything else we know
– Relying on all information only as much as can be justified by the
outcome of the above processes
– Being sceptical....but never cynical!

Four lies and one truth
Not necessarily in that order!
• There is an infinite number of places on the Earth where you
can walk north for a mile, then west for a mile, then south for a
mile, ending up in the same place
• Evolution produces creatures perfectly adapted to their
environment
• In a thunderstorm, you are always safer standing out in the
open than under a tree
• You should drink eight glasses of water a day to stay healthy
• Taking vitamin C helps you avoid catching a cold

And the true statement is...
• There is an infinite
number of places on the
Earth where you can walk
north for a mile, then
west for a mile, then
south for a mile, ending
up in the same place!

What's wrong with the other statements?
• Evolution produces creatures perfectly adapted to
their environment?
• In a thunderstorm, you are always safer standing
out in the open than under a tree?
• You should drink eight glasses of water a day to
stay healthy?
• Taking vitamin C helps you avoid catching a cold?

Why is Critical Thinking so important?

Why is Critical Thinking so important?
• Because
– Progress towards a better world can only be made by constantly
seeking deeper truths and disseminating these more widely and
effectively
– In a world of constant change and global competition, your
careers will inevitably depend on your ability to discover flaws in
existing information and new and deeper truths in order to deliver
benefit to others
– The top universities need to recruit and train the best thought
leaders in order to maintain their reputation....they need
outstanding critical thinkers!
Critical Thinking is based on rational and autonomous
thought, which since the Age of Enlightenment starting
in late 17th-century Europe, commands the highest
respect in Western civilisation

Critical thinking is also very important because there
is a huge amount of misinformation in the world!
Why is this?

Misinformation is everywhere - Why?
• Most people are not experts. They have flawed understandings of the subjects
they talk and write about
• Even the world's leading authorities disagree on many things - perfect truth is
very elusive
• Much information is just passed on uncritically by people with limited critical
thinking abilities
• Much truth is more complex and layered than simple representations might
suggest e.g. "politicians cannot be trusted" is a gross oversimplification
• Lots of money to be made and power to be won in peddling misinformation
• Lots of people lie to cover their ass
• Even when they are not intentionally lying, many people prefer to blame others
for the world's ills and for their own failures
• Fiction is often a lot more sensational than fact and can easily be made to
appeal to prejudices, especially in conspiracy theories!

Of course the Media has a lot to answer for!

Let's test your critical thinking skills!
• A female patient with no symptoms of disease participates in a routine
screening. She tests positive, is alarmed, and wants to know whether
she has the disease for certain or if the test may have given a false
result. She is 50 years old.
• Her doctor is aware of the following statistics
– The probability that any 50 year old woman has the disease is 1%
("prevalence")
– If a woman has the disease, the probability that she tests positive
is 90% ("sensitivity")
– If a woman does not have the disease the probability that she
nevertheless tests positive is 9% ("false alarm rate")
• The doctor tells her she has a 90% chance of having the disease. Is
he right?

• He is wrong! The correct
answer is 10%! Most of the
positive results are false for
this disease (breast cancer)
• This is because out of 1000
women 98 will test positive but
only 9 of these will actually
have the disease. 89 are false
positives. Therefore the
chance of a true positive is 9 in
89 or 1 in 10!

• This question is based on a real questionnaire given
to a group of 160 practising gynaecologists in the
USA.
• In the experiment more than half of the specialist
doctors wrongly responded that the woman's
chance of having cancer was 90%!
• Of course this is no reason to avoid medical testing.
(A great deal more on this topic can be found by
searching on the BBC website under ‘do doctors
understand’)

Misinformation is one thing......
• Disinformation is quite another
• Now let's get really scary......
• And talk about........

Misinformation is one thing......
• Disinformation is quite another
• Now let's get really scary......
• And talk about........
The Arch-Manipulators!
The really scary people responsible
for most of the disinformation in
the world!

The Arch-Manipulators
Who are they?

The Arch-Manipulators
• Governments
• Companies
• The Media
• The Intelligence Services
• Religious leaders (some)
• Corrupt and incompetent scientists
• Criminals/confidence tricksters
• Girlfriends and boyfriends
• Parents and teachers

You don't believe me?
• Need six Boards of Directors each comprising
– Chief Executive
– Finance Director
– Sales Director
– Chief Scientist

World Baby Foods Inc
• You are all members of the Board of
an international baby food company,
World baby Foods inc

• You are all members of the Board
of an international baby food
company, World Baby Foods Inc
• You have just been informed that
major new research has shown that
one of your main ingredients,
Ingredient X, is probably a major
cause of ADHD (Attention deficit
hyperactivity disorder) in children

major new research has shown
that one of your main ingredients,
• It may already have caused over
10,000 cases of it!

major new research has shown
that one of your main ingredients,
10,000 cases of it!
• A leading journalist from a
international newspaper is going to
call you in 10 minutes to get your
reaction

major new research has shown that
one of your main ingredients,
10,000 cases of it!
• A leading journalist from a
international newspaper is going to
call you in 10 minutes to get your
reaction
• What do you plan to say?

It gets worse!
• Your advertising agency advises you that if
you admit there may be a problem, you will
lose 3/4 of your market overnight because
no parents want to take risks with their
baby's food

It gets worse!
lose 3/4 of your market overnight because no
parents want to take risks with their baby's
food
• Your finance director says this will mean you
will go bust within 3 months and everyone
will lose their jobs

It gets worse!
parents want to take risks with their baby's
food
• The new research into Ingredient X has been
done by a very reputable company

It gets worse!
one wants to take a risk with their baby's food
• The new research into Ingredient X has been
done by a very reputable company
• Ingredient X is what gives most of your
products a winning taste

However
• Previous reputable independent research has always shown
Ingredient X to be safe

However
• It turns out that the new research has been led by your ex-Chief
Scientist, Joe Feinstein, who left your company three years ago after
expressing unease about Ingredient X

However
• Your current Chief Scientist has known Feinstein a long time. He/she
is absolutely convinced that Feinstein's reservations about Ingredient
X are ill-founded. He/she strongly suspects that the real reason
Feinstein left the company was that he was not selected for the Chief
Executive position when it became vacant. He/she thinks Feinstein
has been seeking revenge on your company ever since

However
• You have been advised by lawyers that if anyone suggests publicly
that Feinstein's motives may be unworthy, they will be sued for
millions

However
• You have been advised by lawyers that if anyone suggests publicly
that Feinstein's motives may be unworthy, they will be sued for
millions
• None of your competitors uses Ingredient X in its products but that is
only because its precise formulation is a closely guarded commercial
secret

What is the essence of your dilemma?

What is the essence of your dilemma?
• Uncertainty as to whether or not Ingredient X causes ADHD
• Knowing that most parents need to feel very confident in the
safety of baby food before buying it
• No way of resolving the uncertainty quickly
• Suspecting that an enemy may deliberately be trying to create
the uncertainty and destroy your company
• Knowing that if Feinstein is right, many more children may suffer
long-term illness if you deny there is a problem
• Knowing that if Feinstein is wrong and you fail to assert that
from the outset, your company may go out of business

What options do you have?
A. Accept that the new research is worrying and needs to be looked into.
Face the probable destruction of your company as customers decide
not to take the risk of buying your products until the situation
becomes clearer

becomes clearer
B. Withdraw Ingredient X immediately and again risk destruction of your
company because Ingredient X is what gives most of your products a
winning taste

becomes clearer
winning taste
C. Deny there is any risk with Ingredient X and cast doubts on
Feinstein's motives. Mount a campaign to undermine his research

not to take the risk of buying your products until the situation becomes
clearer
winning taste
C. Deny there is any risk with Ingredient X and cast doubts on Feinstein's
motives. Mount a campaign to undermine his research
D. Deny there is any risk with Ingredient X and cast doubts on Feinstein's
motives. Nevertheless commission secretly another reputable research
company urgently to analyse Feinstein's research and provide you with
an assessment. Urgently establish contingency plans to replace
Ingredient X in the event their report supports Feinstein's conclusions

Questions from the journalist
• What is the company's reaction to the news that Ingredient X
may have caused over 10,000 cases of ADHD?

• Is it not true that Feinstein was forced out of your company
after warning you of the risk 3 years ago?

• What does the company plan to do about the new information?
Will it withdraw all its products using Ingredient X?

• How can your company survive?

• How can your company survive?
• Does the Board plan to resign over the issue?

Lessons?
• Difficulties of managing uncertainty when the
consequences of being wrong are huge
• The risks of always telling the truth, the whole truth
and nothing but the truth, particularly when there is
significant uncertainty and people are worried and
need assurances
• The temptations that exist to say you are sure when
in reality you are not

Lessons?
• All of us under pressure can get dragged into being
less than fully truthful
• Most people in senior positions are under pressure
of one form or another most of the time
• It leads to huge amounts of misinformation and
disinformation at every level
• So scepticism backed by critical thinking is
ESSENTIAL in all walks of life at all times!

Next session - Wednesday 6 August
7.00 pm
• How to detect misinformation
• How best to handle interview questions
• What to read to improve your critical
thinking powers
Before the next session, please read the
short handout "Culture Still Matters" by
Victor Davis Hanson and decide what you
think about it

Thinking critically-session-1

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to Thinking critically-session-1

Similar to Thinking critically-session-1 (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Thinking critically-session-1