This document is an honors thesis analyzing factors that may contribute to the decline in teen birth rates in the United States. The author uses data from 2000, 2005, and 2008 on 11 factors from all 50 states and DC, including rape rates, abortion rates, education levels, income, religion, and beer consumption. Through linear regression analysis, the author finds rape rates, the percentage of Baptists in the population, and beer consumption rates have statistically significant positive relationships with teen birth rates. While abortion rates also showed significance, the positive relationship does not make logical sense, likely due to omitted variables. The author concludes these three significant factors may be contributing to the overall decline in teen birth rates in recent decades as the variables decrease. However,
Infertility and gender difference in reaction among couples and family and co...Demsy Audu
Infertility and Gender Difference in Reaction Among Couples and Family and Community Treatment: A Study of Patients Attending NKST Hospital Mkar in Benue State, Nigeria - Audu, Demsy et al (2013).
A comparative analysis of the health status of men aged 60 74 years and those...paulbourne12
In a comprehensive literature search studies on self-rated
well-being, quality of life and health have mostly singled
out particular cohorts such as young adults or youth [1-4],
population [5-11], elderly [12-26], children [27], and
nations [28]; but none emerges that has compared factors that determine self-rated well-being for young adults and elderly in the English-speaking Caribbean, especially Jamaica.
The paper explores masculinity and / or femininity and their relationship to the prevalence of HIV and AIDS in Zimbabwe. The paper implicates both masculinity and femininity as accomplices in spreading HIV and AIDS. The purpose of the paper is to highlight the growing concern that cultural practices contribute to the prevalence of HIV and AIDS in Zimbabwe and beyond. The paper further argues that whereas the masculine (male or female) may impose themselves on the feminine (female or male), the latter also contributes to the prevalence of HIV and AIDS by willingly accepting the imposition as a societal ‘norm’ or value to use Taylor’s (2003) theory of scenarios. The unquestioned acceptance of the masculine’s demands becomes the norm or scenario that should be viewed as ‘natural’ by both the hegemonic masculine and the subaltern feminine in a relationship. To carry out the study, a case study design was adopted as the operational framework for data gathering. Data was collected from Mount Zion, Temeraire Baptist Church in Mashava, Masvingo province by engaging Practice As Research (PAR) and participant observation. The sample comprised 20 adolescents made up of 10 boys and 10 girls. The results gathered from the research confirmed that to a greater extent, societal norms and attitudes influence one’s behaviour towards life in general and sex to be specific. These findings demonstrate the need for academics, government, families and other interested stakeholders to re-evaluate cultural practices and specifically, gender roles.
Jim Crow and Premature Mortality Among the US Black and White Poulation, 1960...CookCountyPLACEMATTERS
"...the study results offer compelling evidence of the enduring impact of both Jim Crow and its abolition on premature mortality among the US black population, althought insufficient to eliminate the persistent 2-fold black excess risk evident in both the Jim Crow and non-Jim Crow states from 1960 to 2009." Epidemiology Volume 25, Number 4, July 2014 Digital Object Identifier 10.1097/EDE.
Infertility and gender difference in reaction among couples and family and co...Demsy Audu
Infertility and Gender Difference in Reaction Among Couples and Family and Community Treatment: A Study of Patients Attending NKST Hospital Mkar in Benue State, Nigeria - Audu, Demsy et al (2013).
A comparative analysis of the health status of men aged 60 74 years and those...paulbourne12
In a comprehensive literature search studies on self-rated
well-being, quality of life and health have mostly singled
out particular cohorts such as young adults or youth [1-4],
population [5-11], elderly [12-26], children [27], and
nations [28]; but none emerges that has compared factors that determine self-rated well-being for young adults and elderly in the English-speaking Caribbean, especially Jamaica.
The paper explores masculinity and / or femininity and their relationship to the prevalence of HIV and AIDS in Zimbabwe. The paper implicates both masculinity and femininity as accomplices in spreading HIV and AIDS. The purpose of the paper is to highlight the growing concern that cultural practices contribute to the prevalence of HIV and AIDS in Zimbabwe and beyond. The paper further argues that whereas the masculine (male or female) may impose themselves on the feminine (female or male), the latter also contributes to the prevalence of HIV and AIDS by willingly accepting the imposition as a societal ‘norm’ or value to use Taylor’s (2003) theory of scenarios. The unquestioned acceptance of the masculine’s demands becomes the norm or scenario that should be viewed as ‘natural’ by both the hegemonic masculine and the subaltern feminine in a relationship. To carry out the study, a case study design was adopted as the operational framework for data gathering. Data was collected from Mount Zion, Temeraire Baptist Church in Mashava, Masvingo province by engaging Practice As Research (PAR) and participant observation. The sample comprised 20 adolescents made up of 10 boys and 10 girls. The results gathered from the research confirmed that to a greater extent, societal norms and attitudes influence one’s behaviour towards life in general and sex to be specific. These findings demonstrate the need for academics, government, families and other interested stakeholders to re-evaluate cultural practices and specifically, gender roles.
Jim Crow and Premature Mortality Among the US Black and White Poulation, 1960...CookCountyPLACEMATTERS
"...the study results offer compelling evidence of the enduring impact of both Jim Crow and its abolition on premature mortality among the US black population, althought insufficient to eliminate the persistent 2-fold black excess risk evident in both the Jim Crow and non-Jim Crow states from 1960 to 2009." Epidemiology Volume 25, Number 4, July 2014 Digital Object Identifier 10.1097/EDE.
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Teen pregnancy in the United StatesTeen pregnancy in the Unite.docxmattinsonjanel
Teen pregnancy in the United States
Teen pregnancy in the United States
The National Campaign to Prevent Teen Pregnancy was founded in 1996 and has its headquarters in Washington D.C. and has nearly 200 organizations and media outlets which serve as partners. The National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy’s main agenda seeks to improve the lives and future prospects of children and families by ensuring that children are born into stable, two-parent families who have a commitment to and are ready for the demanding task of raising the next generation. Their strategy is aimed at the prevention of teen pregnancy and unplanned pregnancy among single, young adults by supporting a combination of responsible values and behavior by both men and women and responsible policies in both the public and private sectors. Their actions are aimed at improving child and family well-being therefore reducing the prevalence rate of poverty by providing more opportunities for the teenagers to complete their education or achieve other life goals while advocating for fewer abortions towards the creation of a stronger nation.
Teenage pregnancies have resulted to a total of 273,105 babies who were born to women aged 15–19 years, for a live birth rate of 26.5% per 1,000 women in this age group. There has been a decline in teen pregnancies with a drop of 10% in 2013. The birth rates declined at 13% for women aged 15–17 years, and 8% for women aged 18–19 years (Child Trends, 2014). Still, the U.S. teen pregnancy rate is substantially higher than in other western industrialized nations (Clay, et al, 2012). The national teen pregnancy rate has been declining steadily over the last two decades which has been attributed to the combination of an increased percentage of adolescents who are waiting to have sexual intercourse and the increased use of contraceptives by teens. The teen pregnancy rate includes the pregnancies that end in a live birth, as well as those that end in abortion or miscarriage resulting from fetal loss. In the United States 4 in 10 teens get pregnant at least once before they reach the age of 20 which leads to the teenagers dropping out of school with more than 50% of teen mothers never completing school. The trends show that less than 10% of the fathers marry the mother of their child and that almost a half of the teen mothers get their second child within the first 24 months since 80% of teens who do not use protective methods have higher chances of becoming pregnant.
Teen birth rates have been declining significantly in the recent years, however, despite these declines, there still exists a lot of disparities that need to be properly addressed (Dessen, 2005). There are substantial disparities that persist in teen birth rates, and teen pregnancy and childbearing which continue to carry significant social and economic costs. In 2013, the Hispanic teen birth rates were still more than two times higher than the rate for ...
Running Head Teen Pregnancy 1Teen Pregnancy .docxtoltonkendal
Running Head: Teen Pregnancy 1
Teen Pregnancy 2
Teen Pregnancy
Name
Institution
Date
Teen Pregnancy
Introduction
Early sexual activity is one of the major issues in the development of adolescents. Different surveys such as Youth Risk Behavior Survey and National Survey of Family Growth have established that most adolescents engage in sexual activities at earlier ages. However, older adolescents aged 15 years and older have recorded a reduction in sexual activity whereas those that are younger have recorded increased sexual activity. There are different factors that make adolescents engage in sexual activities. Some of these factors include peer pressure to engage in sexual activity, adolescents that mature earlier and the influence of the new media. The use of drugs as well as alcohol leads to reduced inhibitions hence, influencing unprotected sexual activity. Boys and girls that smoke or take alcohol are at risk of early sexual activity. This is because the use of these substances influences their decision making in social contexts.
Fake references According Peters, 2017, early sexual activity is associated with teen pregnancy. Teenage pregnancy has been a national concern for many decades. Teenage pregnancy in most cases complicates the development of adolescents and it leads to a difficultshift to young adulthood. This leads to potential limited economic and most important educational opportunities. There has been a significant teenage pregnancy decline in the last three decades. However, based on the National Campaign aimed at preventing teen pregnancy shows that out of ten girls, four of them get pregnant before they are twenty years old. Compared to other industrialized countries, United States has the highest teen pregnancy, abortion and birth rates (Peters, 2017).
Population Impacted and how they are affected.
Sexual risk behavior among adolescents in the United States is a major health concern. According to Rebecca et al, 2011, approximately 800,000 girls aged between fifteen and nineteen years get pregnant every year. In recent years, the proportion of sexually experienced adolescents has decreased. However, 34 percent of the ninth graders and 61 percent of the 12th graders agree to having had sexual intercourse. Of those that go to high school, 7 percent agree to have sex before their thirteenth birthday. Fake data
In 2015, 229,715babies were born to mothers aged between 15 years and 19 years. This represented a birth rate of approximately 22 per 1,000 girls in the 15-19 age group. This was a record low showing a drop of 8 percent from the previous year, 2014. There was also a significant drop of 9% for girls aged 15 to 17 and 7% for women between 18 years and 19 years. The decline was attributed to abstinence of teens from sexual activity and those that are were sexually active using birth control ...
Source informationDate Wed Feb 8, 2012 1223pmDocument ty.docxMARRY7
** Source information:
Date: Wed Feb 8, 2012 12:23pm
Document type: ArticleTitle: “Teen pregnancy, abortion rates at record low, study says”
Authors: By James B. Kelleher, Editing by Cynthia Johnston
Source: “Teen pregnancy, abortion rates at record low, study says.”reuters.com. Feb 8, 2012
< http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/us-teen-pregnancy-idUSTRE8171J020120208>.
** Summary:
Since 1972 until 2008, the rate of pregnancy and abortion among teenagers in the United States decreased significantly, and the rate of contraceptive use increased. In 2008, which is the most recent year that the Guttmacher researchers looked at government statistics on teen-age sex, pregnancies, births and abortion. They found that nearly 750,000 U.S. women under the age of 20 became pregnant in 2008, nearly 98 percent of them between the ages of 15 and 19. In 2008 the rate of teen abortion had decreased since 1972. The researchers and analyzers think the percentage decreased because both male and female teens used contraception. The researchers found that teen who had pregnancies and abortions between the ages of 15to 17 may be affected long-term. This long-term affect could show as a decline in their sexual activity. However, Racial and ethnic disparities are still seen in the African American communities. They found that the abortion rate is still two to four times that of their white peers. In addition, in 2008 they found the birth rates for Hispanic and black teens were more than twice those of the counterpart, and the Hispanic teen abortion rate were twice as high as the rate of white peers and black teen abortion rate were four times higher than the rate of the Caucasian.
** Quotations:
1. The researcher said that the disparities between race affect the teens and make them abort a fetus:
But disparities among racial and ethnic groups continued to persist, with black and Hispanic teens experiencing pregnancy and abortion rates two to four times higher than their white peers, the Guttmacher Institute, the nonprofit sexual health research group that conducted the analysis, said.
2. The percentage of the teens pregnant decreased because teen are more alert, to the use of contraceptives “The teen abortion rate in 2008 dropped to the lowest rate seen since 1972 at 17.8 per 1,000 teen girls and women, the analysis found, and was down 59 percent from 1988 when the abortion rate peaked at 43.5 per 1,000 teen women. The Guttmacher researchers said the decline in teen birthrates was largely attributable to increased contraceptive use by teens of both genders.”
** Paraphrasing:
Original paragraph:
The Guttmacher researchers said the decline in teen birthrates was largely attributable to increased contraceptive use by teens of both genders. Among women aged 15 to 17, about a quarter of the long-term decline in pregnancies, births and abortions could be attributable to reduced sexual activity, the researchers said.
Paraphrased paragraph:
The res ...
Teen Pregnancy Precede-Proceed Phase 1 Although we have s.docxmehek4
Teen Pregnancy
Precede-Proceed Phase 1: Although we have seen pregnancy rates decline in the past two
decades, substantial health disparities remain in both social and economic aspects for teenagers
that are at risk. Many individuals are affected nationwide directly and indirectly, from being the
teenagers who face unplanned pregnancies to lost tax revenue. Both social and behavior factors
exist and have a major impact on teenagers living in the United States. Many teenagers are
easily influenced by their peers, but they also serves as targets of the media. We must improve
adolescent reproductive health in central San Diego by improving the behaviors with
encouraging positive attitudes, extracurricular activities, and offering counseling services.
Strategies used in sex education courses at high schools can be improved by including
information about health services that are offered in the community and not only encourage the
delay of sexual intercourse, but also provide education on the risks associated risky sexual
behavior. There are many studies that have been conducted on sex education and teen
pregnancy. Our health promotion program and plan will incorporate the most effective strategies
previously used.
Precede-Proceed Phase 2 (National Level): “Despite declines since 1991, the teen birth
rate in the United States remains as much as nine times higher as in other developed countries”
(Pazol, et. al. 2011). This is unusual for being such an industrialized, developed country. “Each
year, teen childbearing costs the United States approximately $6 billion in lost tax revenue and
nearly $2 billion in public expenditures” (Pazol et. al, 2011). According to Jessica Pika,
Assistant Director, Communications for The National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned
Pregnancy Organization states, teen pregnancy is a major issue for the U.S. because it not only
affects pregnant teens, but their family, friends, and people they have never met (i.e., taxpayers
who pay for “teen childbearing costs” (personal communication, November 20, 2012). Teen
pregnancy affects everyone (J. Pika, personal communication, November 20, 2012). Since teen
pregnancy can be prevented, this is a lot of money that the country is losing annually.
“Approximately one third of the teenaged females in the United States becoming pregnant and
once pregnant, are at risk of becoming pregnant again” (Basch, 2011). Getting pregnant once
during one’s teenage years raises the risk of conceiving again. In a recent interview with Marcy
Clayson an Engagement Specialist at Planned Parenthood a statement she made advocates for
Basch’s belief about teen pregnancy risks of conceiving again, she stated, “A lot of our teen
moms are children of teen parents. That is a common factor. It’s almost a social norm in their
communities. We make sure that our teens know that they can prevent an unplanned for a second
pregnan ...
William Allan Kritsonis, PhD, Editor-in-Chief, NATIONAL FORUM JOURNALS (Founded 1982). Article published by Dr. Joanna Hadjicostandi in the national refereed journal titled INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EDUCATION.
CDade-GraduateIntern-IDPH-OWHFS-MaternalMortality-FinalReportChelsea Dade, MS
As a part of my contribution to Illinois’s Maternal Mortality review process, I was tasked to investigate the maternal mortality review committees, related literature, and other related reports of 26 states, plus Washington D.C. and Illinois. The goal of this project was to give my supervisors and IDPH staff an overview of what has worked, what isn’t working in terms of maternal mortality reduction recommendations in other states. In addition to including incidence rates, racial breakdowns, and other markers, I examined the methods that states used to present their maternal mortality data. The latter refers to graphics selections, terminology, and other creative considerations that might have been used to impact a reader’s connection and understanding of the issue in a state’s report.
It is important to acknowledge that not every state had an existing report. Furthermore, in my analysis I found that even for states with existing maternal mortality review committees, reports were not always readily accessible online. Moreover, every state with an existing review committee do not always have a list of recommendations. Therefore, the following summaries are a couple of examples from my complete 26 state analysis, featured on the states of Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, and Ohio, as they were able to provide a direct list of official recommendations.
1. The Decline of Teen Birth Rates: A Statistical Analysis
An Honors Thesis (HONR 499)
by
Cassandra J. Dehning
Thesis Advisor
Dr. Erik Nesson
Ball State University
Muncie, Indiana
December 2014
Expected Date of Graduation
December 13, 2014
2. Abstract
Teen pregnancy is a sensitive topic in today’s society. While our culture has become more
accepting of teenage pregnancy, even creating TV shows and movies based on the subject, it is
still an area of concern for many people. One way to track teen pregnancy is to follow the trend
of teen birth rates, which has been declining significantly in recent years. Several studies have
attempted to pinpoint the exact cause of the decline. An analysis of the following eleven factors
potentially contributing to teen birth rates gives a more broad sense of what may be happening in
society: the number of rapes per 100,000 people; the number of abortions per 1000 women aged
15-19; the number of high school diplomas awarded per 1000 students; school expenditures per
100 students; the percentage of the population identifying as either Baptist, Mormon, Catholic, or
Protestant; real per capita income per ten people; marriage rates; unemployment rates; and per-
capita beer consumption rates. I analyze the following variables’ statistical significance in a
regression model in an attempt to understand what cultural factors may be contributing to the
decline in teen birth rates.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Dr. Erik Nesson for helping and advising me through this project. His
assistance not only on this project but throughout my college career has been invaluable.
I would like to thank Adam for being an unknowing source of inspiration to pursue this project.
I would like to thank K.C., Terri, and Larry for their support and encouragement as I worked to
complete this project.
3. 1. Introduction
Over the last few decades, the United States has seen a significant decrease in the birth rate
among teenagers. According to the US Department of Health and Human services, the decline is
nationwide and is not limited to teenagers of a certain race or ethnicity. The trend can be clearly
seen in the figure below, obtained from the USDHHS website.
Figure 1: Birth rates per 1,000 females ages 15-19, by race/ethnicity, 1990-2012 (USHHS
website)
It is unclear what has caused this change in teen birth rates, but there are several possibilities that
could be considered. For example, the decision of Roe v. Wade legalized abortion in 1973 and
made abortions more easily accessible for women as well as more acceptable within society.
There has also been a cultural shift toward equality for women both in education and in the
workplace, placing a heavy emphasis on the success of women in their career fields. These
societal changes beg the question, what exactly has impacted the teenagers and young women in
the United States in a way that has decreased the birth rates among them so drastically? Is it
possible that this trend will continue?
In this paper I address the question of what may be impacting the decline in teen birth rates in the
United States. I consider multiple causes of the change within data compiled from all 50 states
plus the District of Columbia across the years 2000, 2005, and 2008. In my analysis of these
causes, I find that per-capita beer consumption, the percent of individuals in each state
identifying as Baptist, and the number of rapes per capita have the most statistically significant
impacts on the teen birth rate. As each of these variables increases, there is an increase in the
teen birth rate.
4. The rest of this paper is outlined as follows: I first address previous studies that are similar to my
own and that concentrate on the same subject of the change in teen birth rates within the last few
decades. I then describe the variables I consider in my analysis as well as my data and data
sources. I also explain the methodology I used to analyze the data. Finally, I describe the
statistical results of my analysis, including significant observations about the coefficients of the
variables and a summary of relationships among the variables tested.
2. Background Information
I am not the first to investigate what may be causing the decline in teen birth rates over the years.
Several studies in the last decade have focused on this topic, mainly in the areas of public health
and economic status.
A study conducted in 2002 attempted to define a relationship between income inequality,
poverty, and the teen birth rate. The study found that teen birth rates are affected by both poverty
and income inequality (Gold, et. al. 77).
In 2003 a study was conducted to test what kind of effect beer taxes have on teen pregnancy. The
study was conducted using data from the 1980s and 1990s; it was concluded that higher beer
taxes have statistically significant negative effects on teen abortion rates, but have statistically
insignificant effects on the teen birth rate (Sen 328).
In 2004, John Santelli headed a study done to explore whether or not improved contraceptive use
can be used to explain the decline in teen birth rates. It was concluded in this study that delayed
initiation of sexual intercourse as well as improved contraceptive use both contributed to the
decline in teen pregnancy rates during the 1990s, which implies a contribution to the decline in
teen birth rates during the same time period (Santelli, et. al. 80).
A similar study was conducted more recently in 2007, again by John Santelli and others, which
posed the same question as the study in 2004. The 2007 study found results in agreement with
the study done in 2004, suggesting that improved contraceptive use has contributed to the decline
in teen pregnancy rates. The study even went so far as to conclude that improved contraceptive
use has been the primary determinant of the declining rates (Santelli, et. al. 150).
While these analyses have each answered their own specific question of what single thing may
be having an impact on teen birth rates, my analysis is broader in nature and considers multiple
variables that could be impacting the decline in teen birth rates.
5. 3. Data & Method
Variables. In this study, I have analyzed the impact of 11 different variables on teen birth rate in
a linear regression model. I collected data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia for the
years 2000, 2005, and 2008. The following variables were considered: the number of rapes per
100,000 people; the number of abortions per 1000 women aged 15-19; the number of high school
diplomas awarded per 1000 students; school expenditures per 100 students; the percentage of the
population identifying as either Baptist, Mormon, Catholic, or Protestant; real per capita income
per ten people; marriage rates; unemployment rates; and per-capita beer consumption rates.
Data Sources. The data used in this study was compiled from the following sources:
Number of rapes – Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics-UCR Data Online
Number of high school diplomas – National Center for Education Statistics
School expenditures – National Center for Education Statistics
Religious affiliations – Pew Research Center
Per Capita Income – U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Marriage rates – CDC/CNHS, National Vital Statistics System
Unemployment rates – Bureau of Labor Statistics
Beer consumption rates – Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System
Descriptive Statistics. Table 1 shows the descriptive statistics for each of the variables across all
years the data was collected, obtained using Minitab. For the most part, there are no red flags in
the data that would be a cause for concern in this analysis. The main issue worth noting is that
the mean for the variables abortions, diplomas, Mormon, Baptist, and marriage rate do not fall
near the middle of the ranges for each variable. This could indicate that the data values for these
variables vary significantly and could cause problems when analyzing the data.
6. Table 1: Descriptive Statistics for Rapes, Abortions, Diplomas, School expenditures,
Mormon, Baptist, Catholic, Protestant, Real PCI, Marriage rate, Unemployment rate,
Teen Birth rate, and Beer consumption rate
Variable Mean SE Mean StDev Minimum Maximum Range
Rapes per 100k 33.857 0.926 11.299 12.922 81.115 68.193
Abortions every 1000 17.289 0.767 9.361 5 52 47
Diplomas/1000 55.17 5.1 62.25 2.81 372.31 369.5
School $/100 91.8 2.19 26.69 46.74 196.98 150.24
Mormon 2.986 0.787 9.608 0.107 66.198 66.091
Baptist 6.573 0.759 9.264 0.107 32.166 32.059
Catholic 20.062 0.994 12.138 3.212 51.631 48.418
Protestant 17.83 0.721 8.796 2.798 43.97 41.172
Real PCI/10 41.383 0.561 6.85 29.16 76.482 47.322
Marriage rate 8.791 0.625 7.628 4 72.2 68.2
Unemployment rate 4.68 0.101 1.236 2.3 8.3 6
Teen Birth rate 42.21 1.02 12.46 17.9 70.1 52.2
Beer Cons 22.826 0.31 3.784 12.109 32.384 20.275
Regression formula: I used the aforementioned variables to obtain a linear regression model of
the following form:
Teen Birth rate = β0 + β1 Rapes per 100k + β2 Abortions every 1000 + β3 Diplomas/1000 + β4
School $/100 + β5 Mormon + β6 Baptist + β7 Catholic + β8 Protestant + β9 Real PCI/10 + β10
Marriage rate + β11 Unemployment rate + β12 Beer Cons + ε
4. Results
Regression output. Table 2 summarizes the Minitab regression output for the linear regression
model relating the 11 variables to teen birth rate.
7. Table 2: Minitab Regression Output for Teen Birth Rate vs. Rapes, Abortions,
Diplomas, School expenditures, Mormon, Baptist, Catholic, Protestant, Real Per
Capita Income, Marriage Rate, Unemployment Rate, and Been Consumption Rate
Term Coef SE Coef T P
Constant 25.6899 8.40560 3.05628 0.003
Rapes per 100k 0.2065 0.06066 3.40380 0.001
Abortions every 1000 0.3723 0.09417 3.95370 0.000
Diplomas/1000 0.0191 0.01162 1.64783 0.102
School $/100 -0.0820 0.04231 -1.93770 0.055
Mormon 0.0783 0.09033 0.86636 0.388
Baptist 0.7746 0.08945 8.65961 0.000
Catholic -0.1149 0.07472 -1.53790 0.126
Protestant -0.0019 0.09500 -0.02030 0.984
Real PCI/10 -0.2485 0.16449 -1.51070 0.133
Marriage rate 0.0810 0.09433 0.85857 0.392
Unemployment rate 0.6596 0.62937 1.04804 0.296
Beer Cons 0.5724 0.20887 2.74039 0.007
Statistical Significance. Setting α = 0.05, a t-test of each coefficient reveals that the only
statistically significant variables to the model are rapes per 100k, abortions per 1000, Baptist,
and beer consumption with p-values equal to 0.001, 0.000, 0.000, and 0.007 respectively. These
find.ings suggest that these particular variables could be impacting teen birth rates, while the
other variables most likely do not have any effect on teen birth rates due to their statistical
insignificance.
Observations. Simply looking at the values of the coefficients for each variable tells us much
about their relationships to teen birth rates according to this particular model. A few coefficients
that stand out are those of abortions, Baptist, unemployment and beer consumption. According to
this model, for every 1% increase in beer consumption, the teen birth rate increases by 0.5724;
for every 1% increase in the unemployment rate, there is an increase of 0.6596 in the teen birth
rate; for every 1% increase in those who identify as Baptists, the teen birth rate increases by
0.7746; and finally, for each additional abortion performed on a woman aged 15-19, the teen
birth rate increases by 0.3723. Each of these variables affects the teen birth rate significantly and,
with the exception of the unemployment rate, is significant to the model overall. Taken at face
value, these findings suggest that the variables abortions, Baptist and beer consumption do in fact
have an impact on teen birth rates.
Variable relationships. When considering these 11 variables, it is important to realize that the
variables may not be completely independent from each other. For example, the unemployment
8. rate could have an effect on real PCI or it is possible that the two variables are influenced by
other factors not considered in this model. The unemployment rate may also influence beer
consumption, although that could be a stereotypical assumption to make. There is most likely a
direct relationship between the amount of school expenditures and the number of high school
diplomas awarded to students each year. These relationships between the variables considered
may have affected their statistical significance in the model.
One variable in particular to look at in regards to relationships is that of abortions per 1000
women aged 15-19. According to this model, the variable is significant with a p-value close to 0,
but it is also positively related to teen birth rates – that is, an increase in abortions causes an
increase in teen birth rates. This relationship does not make logical sense as an abortion
terminates a pregnancy and most often does not result in a birth. This begs the question, how
would an abortion cause an increase in the teen birth rate? The most logical answer is that of an
omitted-variable bias. Since this model does not take into consideration all possible factors
contributing to teen birth rates, it is likely that the abortion variable is over compensating for a
variable which is not measured in this model. Therefore, the coefficient related to abortions is
not accurately reflecting the impact abortions has on the teen birth rate, but is most likely a
reflection of a combination of one or more other causal factors not tested.
I believe it is reasonable to conclude that of the 11 variables considered in this model, the
number of rapes per 100,000 people, the percentage of the population identifying as Baptist, and
the beer consumption rate all play a significant role in determining the teen birth rate. Since these
variables are all positively related to the teen birth rate and the teen birth rate has been declining
in recent years, it makes sense that these particular variables must be on the decline as well. The
remaining variables do not appear to have a statistically significant impact on teen birth rates.
Although abortions appear to be significantly related to the teen birth rate also, the nature of the
relationship is questionable and therefore unreliable. Further investigation is necessary to
determine other underlying causal variables that may be affecting the teen birth rate.
5. Conclusion
In this paper I summarized my analysis of 11 different variables I believed to be related to teen
birth rates in the US. I gathered data from a variety of sources from all 50 states and the District
of Columbia during the years 2000, 2005, and 2008 and created a linear regression model using
these data points in an attempt to discover what may be causing the decreasing trend in teen birth
rates that have been observed over the last few decades.
I found in my observation of the coefficients for each variable that the majority do not have a
statistically significant impact on teen birth rates at all. Only a handful of the variables are
significant: rapes, abortions, the Baptist religion, and beer consumption. Of these significant
9. variables only three make logical sense – abortions must be disregarded due to a possible
omitted-variable bias. However, I am confident in my conclusion that the number of rapes, the
percentage of the population that is Baptist, and beer consumption rates do significantly impact
teen birth rates. It is likely that changes in these variables have been contributing to the overall
decline in teen birth rates in the past several years.
The list of variables considered in this analysis is by no means exhaustive. As demonstrated
when considering the impact abortions has on the teen birth rate, there are most likely several
other contributing factors to the decline in teen birth rates. While this study does contribute to the
ongoing speculation of the subject, there is further research to be done in regards to the teen birth
rate.
10. References
Gold, Rachel, Bruce Kennedy, Fred Connell, and Ichiro Kawachi. "Teen Births, Income
Inequality, and Social Capital: Developing an Understanding of the Causal
Pathway." Health & Place 8.2 (2002): 77-83. ScienceDirect. 30 Nov. 2014.
“The Office of Adolescent Health, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services." Office of
Adolescent Health. US Department of Health and Human Services, 21 Nov. 2014. 07
Dec. 2014.
Santelli, John S., Joyce Abma, Stephanie Ventura, Laura Lindberg, Brian Morrow, John E.
Anderson, Sheryl Lyss, and Brady E. Hamilton. "Can Changes in Sexual Behaviors
among High School Students Explain the Decline in Teen Pregnancy Rates in the
1990s?" Journal of Adolescent Health 35.2 (2004): 80-90. ScienceDirect. 30 Nov. 2014.
Santelli, John S., Laura Duberstein Lindberg, Lawrence B. Finer, and Susheela Singh.
"Explaining Recent Declines in Adolescent Pregnancy in the United States: The
Contribution of Abstinence and Improved Contraceptive Use." American Journal of
Public Health 97.1 (2007): 150-56. PubMed Central. 30 Nov. 2014.
Sen, Bisakha. “Can Beer Taxes Affect Teen Pregnancy? Evidence Based on Teen Abortion
Rates and Birth Rates.” Southern Economic Journal 70.2 (2003): 328-43. JSTOR. 30
Nov. 2014.