The document discusses declining job growth in India, particularly in manufacturing. Data shows that new projects in 2014-15 expect to hire less than half as many workers compared to the previous year. This points to jobless growth and could increase social unrest, as seen in recent protests by Patidars in Gujarat demanding jobs and quotas. While some industries like drugs and chemicals have grown in Gujarat, they are largely capital intensive and do not generate many jobs. With more youth entering the workforce each year, the lack of quality private sector jobs threatens the social and political influence of communities that have a wealthy creamy layer but many unemployed members, fueling demands for reservations.

1. Few Jobs: There's No
Stopping Hardiks
BAD TO WORSE In a strong pointer to jobless growth, new projects in
2014-15 expect to hire less than half the number of workers compared
to new projects a year ago

3. Contd..
Social unrest of the kind seen in Gujarat could rise and spread to other
states that are heavily invested in manufacturing because quality jobs
are disappearing even as the number of young people searching for
secure, quality employment is increasing dramatically .Data published
by the department of industrial policy and promotion (DIPP) shows
that new projects planned in 2014-15 expect to hire less than half the
number of workers compared to new projects conceived a year ago.
Filings of investment intentions with DIPP during 2014-15 show that
entrepreneurs proposed to spend `4,20,229 cr on new and expansion
projects and the investment will spawn just 4,11,597 jobs or less than
one job per crore of capital invested.

4. Contd..
That number was more than double in the previous year when investment
intentions were Rs 4,58,330 crore and proposed direct employment was a
shade less than a million.
The data is based on the Industrial Entrepreneurs Memorandum filed with
the DIPP in 39 de-licensed industries. And a large number of these intentions
are unlikely to materialize on the ground.
A Crisil Research report early August said capital investments across 22 large
sectors would fall 2 per cent in 2015-16 and private investments would
plunge by about 8 per cent. “Industrial capex, which accounts for close to 30
per cent of aggregate capital investments, is expected to decline sharply by
16 per cent this fiscal,'' Crisil said, adding it did not expect a revival until
2017.

5. Contd..
Economic policies of the current as well as previous governments are
predicated on more and more workers moving from farms to
industries. Sandip Sarkar, professor at the Institute of Human
Development, projects that this year the number of youth in the age
group of 15-29 in the workforce would be 153 million. This number
would rise to 156 m in 2020 and to 158 m by 2025.
As seen in the Patidar agitation in Gujarat--one of the most
industrialized states in the country--this youth cohort has started to
build political pressure for an assured share of stable but shrinking
government jobs as well as preference in cheap skilling opportunities
such as engineering and medicine courses.

6. Contd..
“See, 40% of my community is well-off. But 30% is forced to sell land to fund
education, because richer backwards walk away with seats and jobs.
Yes, we have more opportunities to go abroad or go private because we
might have more wealth, but why must we?
Government should provide for everyone,'' Hardik Patel, the 22-year-old face
of the Patidar agitation, has claimed. It is unlikely that the Patidar leader
would have made that argument if the community's youth could find quality
private sector employment.
Manufacturing was Gujarat 'sticket to progress. The state, which is home to
10% of India's factories, produces a third of the country's drugs, more than
half of its chemicals, two-thirds of plastics and more than 62%of
petrochemicals, according to a presentation the state made to investors a
couple of years ago. But most of these industries are labour light.

7. Contd..
In a research paper on Gujarat's economic growth, social scientist Ghanshyam Shah
has observed that though labour was moving from farm to non-farm sector,
industries were capital intensive and the rate of employment was slow and erratic.
“Employment per factory has significantly declined, from 99 workers in 19601961
to 62.40 persons in 19901991 and to 59.44 in 2005. Whereas average invested
capital per factory has increased 2.5 times in less than a last decade,'' Shah said in
the 2013 paper, Politics of Governance: A study of Gujarat, written for Lokniti,
CSDS.
Investment intentions for Gujarat for 2014-15 amount to `59,493 cr with a
proposed job count of 1,19,263. The planned capex was `88,373 cr and the number
of jobs 88,675 in FY14.
“It (the Patidar agitation) is the basic dissatisfaction with the kind of economy
which is not giving them decent jobs,'' Shah told ET in a telephone interview from
Ahmedabad.

8. Contd..
Combine the economic reality with reservation politics and the mix is potent.
Many communities--Patidars in Gujarat, Jats in Haryana, UP , Delhi,
Uttarkhand, Rajasthan and MP, Marathas in Maharashtra--that want quotas
for themselves are cohesive vote caches. They typically have a wide creamy
layer that is wealthy , landowning and well networked. The majority of the
rest are dependent on education and jobs. For the creamy layer to retain its
influence, it is necessary that the entire community function as a cohesive
unit.
“They (the creamy layer) need the base to use for their political purposes,''
Shah says. That is threatened in times of economic slowdown when jobs are
scarce and farm incomes plunge.
Now, Patel is connecting with other communities to widen the agitation
which means unrest spreading to the northern parts of the country is very
real.

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