1) The document discusses how scenarios of military conflict with China often fail to consider the economic consequences, given the high level of economic interdependence between the US and China.
2) It provides examples of major US companies like Apple and Walmart that rely heavily on Chinese production and would be severely impacted by any disruption in US-China relations.
3) It describes a hypothetical scenario where increasing tensions between China and Taiwan could escalate into a crisis, causing a downturn in global markets and shortages of goods in the US as Chinese production is disrupted.
Global HeavyLift Holdings Cites “Absolute Need” For Commercial Boeing C-17(BC...GLOBAL HEAVYLIFT HOLDINGS
Paris, France -- As an addendum to its May 28, 2009 press releases, Global HeavyLift Holdings, LLC, a Florida incorporated and Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) listed (www.ccr.gov) entity with principal offices in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, has announced a new emphasizing of plans to permanently augment the U.S. global supply chain with air as a transportation methodology. The strategy would involve utilizing both heavylift (commercial C-17) and standard lift aircraft (747-8F). Current projections suggest at least 300 aircraft in initial phases. (http://www.pressrelease365.com/pr/industry/aerospace/global-heavylift-bc-17-3455.htm )
“Sword of Damocles”
“China’s and South Korea’s virtual control of ocean-borne shipping, along with China’s rise as a blue water naval power capable of interrupting critical east-west ship transit lanes at will, signals an absolute need to neutralize a veritable ‘Sword of Damocles’ over the U.S. industrial base global supply chain,” says Myron D. Stokes, Managing Member.
Global HeavyLift Cites 'Absolute Need' For C-17-Based Global Supply Chain Per...GLOBAL HEAVYLIFT HOLDINGS
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As an addendum to its May 28, 2009 press releases, Global HeavyLift Holdings, LLC, a Florida incorporated and Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) listed (www.ccr.gov) entity with principal offices in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, has announced a new emphasizing of plans to permanently augment the U.S. global supply chain with air as a transportation methodology.
The strategy would involve utilizing both heavylift (commercial C-17) and standard lift aircraft (747-8F). Current projections suggest at least 300 aircraft in initial phases.
"Sword of Damocles"
"China's and South Korea's virtual control of ocean-borne shipping, along with China's rise as a blue water naval power capable of interrupting critical east-west ship transit lanes at will, signals an absolute need to neutralize a veritable 'Sword of Damocles' over the U.S. industrial base global supply chain," says Myron D. Stokes, Managing Member
Pol 300 Massive Success / snaptutorial.comReynolds26
This Tutorial contains 2 Papers
Select a president from the table, “Presidents and Their ‘Doctrines,’” in Roskin, Chapter 4. Then write a 3-5 page paper on the doctrine that president used according to Roskin. Your research must include at least four (4) credible sources, apart from your textbook. Your paper must address the following:
1. Summarize a situation that required U.S. diplomatic efforts during the president’s time in office.
2. Explicate the diplomatic doctrine the president followed, with reference to specific actions or events that
Global HeavyLift Holdings Cites “Absolute Need” For Commercial Boeing C-17(BC...GLOBAL HEAVYLIFT HOLDINGS
Paris, France -- As an addendum to its May 28, 2009 press releases, Global HeavyLift Holdings, LLC, a Florida incorporated and Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) listed (www.ccr.gov) entity with principal offices in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, has announced a new emphasizing of plans to permanently augment the U.S. global supply chain with air as a transportation methodology. The strategy would involve utilizing both heavylift (commercial C-17) and standard lift aircraft (747-8F). Current projections suggest at least 300 aircraft in initial phases. (http://www.pressrelease365.com/pr/industry/aerospace/global-heavylift-bc-17-3455.htm )
“Sword of Damocles”
“China’s and South Korea’s virtual control of ocean-borne shipping, along with China’s rise as a blue water naval power capable of interrupting critical east-west ship transit lanes at will, signals an absolute need to neutralize a veritable ‘Sword of Damocles’ over the U.S. industrial base global supply chain,” says Myron D. Stokes, Managing Member.
Global HeavyLift Cites 'Absolute Need' For C-17-Based Global Supply Chain Per...GLOBAL HEAVYLIFT HOLDINGS
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As an addendum to its May 28, 2009 press releases, Global HeavyLift Holdings, LLC, a Florida incorporated and Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) listed (www.ccr.gov) entity with principal offices in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, has announced a new emphasizing of plans to permanently augment the U.S. global supply chain with air as a transportation methodology.
The strategy would involve utilizing both heavylift (commercial C-17) and standard lift aircraft (747-8F). Current projections suggest at least 300 aircraft in initial phases.
"Sword of Damocles"
"China's and South Korea's virtual control of ocean-borne shipping, along with China's rise as a blue water naval power capable of interrupting critical east-west ship transit lanes at will, signals an absolute need to neutralize a veritable 'Sword of Damocles' over the U.S. industrial base global supply chain," says Myron D. Stokes, Managing Member
Pol 300 Massive Success / snaptutorial.comReynolds26
This Tutorial contains 2 Papers
Select a president from the table, “Presidents and Their ‘Doctrines,’” in Roskin, Chapter 4. Then write a 3-5 page paper on the doctrine that president used according to Roskin. Your research must include at least four (4) credible sources, apart from your textbook. Your paper must address the following:
1. Summarize a situation that required U.S. diplomatic efforts during the president’s time in office.
2. Explicate the diplomatic doctrine the president followed, with reference to specific actions or events that
In the contemporary era, the international geopolitical chess indicates the existence of three major players: the United States, China and Russia. From confrontation between these three major military powers may result alternative scenarios to the current that is characterized at the time by the US hegemony on the world stage since the end of the bipolar world that confronted the United States and the Soviet Union.
Clear, hold, build: the evolution of counterinsurgency (COIN) for the British...Lucas Colley
Abstract: The British Army has amassed a wealth of operational experience in two theatres of conflict in the last fourteen years. In many ways, the conflicts of Iraq and Afghanistan have highlighted the strategic shortcomings of those in charge, and yet highlighted the enduring tactical excellence of those charged with fighting the battles. In terms of organisation and equipment, the British Army has modernised itself, and introduced new tactics, techniques and procedures to deal with the reality of the contemporary operating environment. This work seeks to track the British Army’s developments in counterinsurgency doctrine and practice from the conflict in Afghanistan up to the end of its offensive operations in 2014, and also the ways in which its orientation towards conventional war-fighting and the “corporate philosophy” therein does not lend itself well to waging counterinsurgency successfully as a matter of routine. This work also seeks to highlight how the campaign in Afghanistan has been plagued by the lack of a coherent strategy, and the implications both for the campaign itself and for future military operations.
An anti racist West Point is a comprehensive strategy document that address necessary steps for creating an anti-racist institution at West Point.
Those who wish to express their support are encouraged to contact leadership at West Point, the US Army Chief of Staff, and Secretary of the Army.
THE MILITARY POWER OF GREAT POWERS AND THE LOSS OF UTILITY OF THE ARMED FORCE...Fernando Alcoforado
This article aims to demonstrate that the great powers have acquired such military power that it has rendered the armed forces of the vast majority of countries in the world useless. The deterrent military power against external threats from the vast majority of countries in the world has become irrelevant in the contemporary era with the use by the great powers of an immense arsenal of nuclear weapons and modern cyber war. The view that each country must have its armed forces to defend its territories to deter external threats has become irrelevant because the vast majority of countries in the world have armed forces based on obsolete structures from the past. This fact makes military spending in almost all countries of the world unproductive, making it unnecessary the existence of armed forces whose military spending should be used in economic sectors most relevant to the economic and social development of many countries.
Lecture 1 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionStanford University
acquisition, Mattis, Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, requirements, stanford, Steve blank, China,
Global HeavyLift Holdings, LLC, Cites “Absolute Need” For Commercial Boeing C-17(BC-17)-Based Permanent Air Augmentation Of U.S. Industrial Base Global Supply Chain: Notes China’s Virtual Control of Ocean-Borne Shipping and Rise As a Blue Water Naval Power Capable of Interrupting Critical East-West Ship Transit Lanes At Will
Acknowledges Exhaustively Researched “Battle of The South China Sea: 2011” Scenario by National Security Strategist Dr. Sheila Ronis as Source of Assertion
Global HeavyLift Holdings,LLC, Cites "Absolute Need" For Commercial Boeing C-...guestde926c4
Paris, France -- As an addendum to its May 28, 2009 press releases, Global HeavyLift Holdings, LLC, a Florida incorporated and Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) listed (www.ccr.gov) entity with principal offices in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, has announced a new emphasizing of plans to permanently augment the U.S. global supply chain with air as a transportation methodology. The strategy would involve utilizing both heavylift (commercial C-17) and standard lift aircraft (747-8F). Current projections suggest at least 300 aircraft in initial phases. (http://www.pressrelease365.com/pr/industry/aerospace/global-heavylift-bc-17-3455.htm )
“Sword of Damocles”
“China’s and South Korea’s virtual control of ocean-borne shipping, along with China’s rise as a blue water naval power capable of interrupting critical east-west ship transit lanes at will, signals an absolute need to neutralize a veritable ‘Sword of Damocles’ over the U.S. industrial base global supply chain,” says Myron D. Stokes, Managing Member.
Sino-US Relations in the 21st Century: Is a Sino-US War Possible?Bright Mhango
This paper grapples with this question and concludes that war between the two can break out even tonight if certain conditions are met. However, for now, with China’s military not advanced enough, any war would have to be started by the US. And it so happens that the US actually has enough motives to engage China before it fully modernizes but cannot just do so from the blue. The US is thus trying to force China to give it the reason to justify a war to its increasingly war skeptical allies and domestic publics.
The reasons why the two cannot fight for now range from interdependence, the fact that Taiwan has not declared independence yet and the fact that Sino-Japan relations do not boil beyond the Yasukuni rhetoric. It is also due to the fact that China is powerless and relies on the US for many things such as access to lucrative markets and technology. The characters and personalities of the leaders of the two countries are also partly the reason there is not enough bad-blood to sound the war cry yet.
#38 who is the true threat to the west-5pgDaniel Wambua
Very good essay about threats to the west. America and other western have had threats coming from the middle west and economic threats from Asia particularly China.
In the contemporary era, the international geopolitical chess indicates the existence of three major players: the United States, China and Russia. From confrontation between these three major military powers may result alternative scenarios to the current that is characterized at the time by the US hegemony on the world stage since the end of the bipolar world that confronted the United States and the Soviet Union.
Clear, hold, build: the evolution of counterinsurgency (COIN) for the British...Lucas Colley
Abstract: The British Army has amassed a wealth of operational experience in two theatres of conflict in the last fourteen years. In many ways, the conflicts of Iraq and Afghanistan have highlighted the strategic shortcomings of those in charge, and yet highlighted the enduring tactical excellence of those charged with fighting the battles. In terms of organisation and equipment, the British Army has modernised itself, and introduced new tactics, techniques and procedures to deal with the reality of the contemporary operating environment. This work seeks to track the British Army’s developments in counterinsurgency doctrine and practice from the conflict in Afghanistan up to the end of its offensive operations in 2014, and also the ways in which its orientation towards conventional war-fighting and the “corporate philosophy” therein does not lend itself well to waging counterinsurgency successfully as a matter of routine. This work also seeks to highlight how the campaign in Afghanistan has been plagued by the lack of a coherent strategy, and the implications both for the campaign itself and for future military operations.
An anti racist West Point is a comprehensive strategy document that address necessary steps for creating an anti-racist institution at West Point.
Those who wish to express their support are encouraged to contact leadership at West Point, the US Army Chief of Staff, and Secretary of the Army.
THE MILITARY POWER OF GREAT POWERS AND THE LOSS OF UTILITY OF THE ARMED FORCE...Fernando Alcoforado
This article aims to demonstrate that the great powers have acquired such military power that it has rendered the armed forces of the vast majority of countries in the world useless. The deterrent military power against external threats from the vast majority of countries in the world has become irrelevant in the contemporary era with the use by the great powers of an immense arsenal of nuclear weapons and modern cyber war. The view that each country must have its armed forces to defend its territories to deter external threats has become irrelevant because the vast majority of countries in the world have armed forces based on obsolete structures from the past. This fact makes military spending in almost all countries of the world unproductive, making it unnecessary the existence of armed forces whose military spending should be used in economic sectors most relevant to the economic and social development of many countries.
Lecture 1 -Technology, Innovation and Great Power CompetitionStanford University
acquisition, Mattis, Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, requirements, stanford, Steve blank, China,
Global HeavyLift Holdings, LLC, Cites “Absolute Need” For Commercial Boeing C-17(BC-17)-Based Permanent Air Augmentation Of U.S. Industrial Base Global Supply Chain: Notes China’s Virtual Control of Ocean-Borne Shipping and Rise As a Blue Water Naval Power Capable of Interrupting Critical East-West Ship Transit Lanes At Will
Acknowledges Exhaustively Researched “Battle of The South China Sea: 2011” Scenario by National Security Strategist Dr. Sheila Ronis as Source of Assertion
Global HeavyLift Holdings,LLC, Cites "Absolute Need" For Commercial Boeing C-...guestde926c4
Paris, France -- As an addendum to its May 28, 2009 press releases, Global HeavyLift Holdings, LLC, a Florida incorporated and Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) listed (www.ccr.gov) entity with principal offices in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, has announced a new emphasizing of plans to permanently augment the U.S. global supply chain with air as a transportation methodology. The strategy would involve utilizing both heavylift (commercial C-17) and standard lift aircraft (747-8F). Current projections suggest at least 300 aircraft in initial phases. (http://www.pressrelease365.com/pr/industry/aerospace/global-heavylift-bc-17-3455.htm )
“Sword of Damocles”
“China’s and South Korea’s virtual control of ocean-borne shipping, along with China’s rise as a blue water naval power capable of interrupting critical east-west ship transit lanes at will, signals an absolute need to neutralize a veritable ‘Sword of Damocles’ over the U.S. industrial base global supply chain,” says Myron D. Stokes, Managing Member.
Sino-US Relations in the 21st Century: Is a Sino-US War Possible?Bright Mhango
This paper grapples with this question and concludes that war between the two can break out even tonight if certain conditions are met. However, for now, with China’s military not advanced enough, any war would have to be started by the US. And it so happens that the US actually has enough motives to engage China before it fully modernizes but cannot just do so from the blue. The US is thus trying to force China to give it the reason to justify a war to its increasingly war skeptical allies and domestic publics.
The reasons why the two cannot fight for now range from interdependence, the fact that Taiwan has not declared independence yet and the fact that Sino-Japan relations do not boil beyond the Yasukuni rhetoric. It is also due to the fact that China is powerless and relies on the US for many things such as access to lucrative markets and technology. The characters and personalities of the leaders of the two countries are also partly the reason there is not enough bad-blood to sound the war cry yet.
#38 who is the true threat to the west-5pgDaniel Wambua
Very good essay about threats to the west. America and other western have had threats coming from the middle west and economic threats from Asia particularly China.
An armed conflict between the US and China will not end well for the US. US cannot, BY TREATY, defend Taiwan in case of China trying to annex her. It can only help Taiwan defend herself.
{This is the first part of a talk given to the students of the University of Tokyo, JAPAN.
Crisis and Opportunity
Maintaining international security and pursuing American interests is more difficult now than perhaps at any time in history. The security environment that the United States faces is more complex, dynamic, and difficult to predict. At the same time, no domestic consensus exists on the purposes of American power and how best to pursue them.
As the U.S. repositions its military forces to assume a great role in the Western Pacific, the state Department has taken a position to defend the contested Senkaku islands, which most Americans have never heard of. f the U.S. does not stay out of this dispute, then there is certain to be at least one aggrieved nation, and the era of U.S. diplomatic pressure and “gunboat” diplomacy belong to another era. Those few in Washington with a historical memory might recall that in 1853 an American naval flotilla forcibly opened up Japan to western trade.
This section will be inclusive of the brief overview of the overall paper, including the key arguments throughout the paper and the aim of the same. This section will also raise certain questions that have led to the formulation of the paper and the whole issue of U.S’s interfere in the Diaoyu / Senkakus islands.
The EDCA and its implications under a Realism Lens
Chinese Missiles and the Walmart Factor | U.S. Naval Institute
1. Published on U.S. Naval Institute (http://www.usni.org)
Home > Magazines > Proceedings Magazine - July 2011 Vol. 137/7/1,301 > Chinese Missiles and the Walmart Factor
Chinese Missiles and the Walmart Factor
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By Lieutenant Commander Matthew Harper, U.S. Navy
Scenarios of a military conflict with a rising China are pointless if they leave out a glaring detail—the global
economy.
Multiple news outlets recently carried stories about a Chinese antiship ballistic missile (ASBM) that could target
U.S. aircraft carriers at sea. 1 It was just the latest in a long-running stream of news coverage and concerned
dialogue over China’s expanding military capabilities and influence. As China’s growing strength gains greater
global attention, more and more time, energy, and money will be spent asking how the United States will counter
an increasingly capable Chinese military. For some within defense circles, this is a routine question and a
question the U.S. Navy (particularly Pacific Command) is expected to answer.
But fear of China’s perceived martial intentions is both overblown and unproductive for the United States and its
military. Focusing solely on Chinese military capabilities clouds the critical challenge of preventing a catastrophic
Sino-American conflict. Furthermore, this distraction obscures the real work of guiding China’s rise as an open,
self-confident, fully integrated member of the world community.
Anti-Access Angst
In the Winter 2010 issue of the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s journal Orbis , Commander James Kraska
forecasts a growing and aggressive China and provocatively describes a hypothetical encounter: The year is
2015, and a Chinese Dong Feng-21D (DF-21D) ASBM sinks the USS George Washington (CVN-73). The
United States is caught by surprise and, because of the military’s decline and the distraction of various other
priorities, the nation is unable to muster an effective response for weeks. By this time, the world community has
interceded, rendering America unable to take unilateral action. 2
The weapon at the heart of Kraska’s cautionary tale, the DF-21D (also known as the CSS-5), is a medium-range
ballistic missile theoretically able to target U.S. carriers at sea. It is currently a cause of significant concern in
U.S. military circles. The common belief is that the ability to draw a bead on the centerpiece of American power
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2. projection will prevent any effective U.S. response in a conflict over Taiwan. The DF-21D, along with China’s
increasing numbers of modern quiet submarines, long-range air-defense surface ships, and fourth-generation
fighter aircraft, is at the forefront of the U.S. Navy’s, and to a lesser extent the U.S. Air Force’s, consciousness.
Andrew Erickson and David Yang articulated the worries in the Naval War College Review , claiming “even the
mere perception that China might have realized an ASBM capability could represent a paradigm shift, with
profound consequences for deterrence, military operations, arms control and the balance of power in the
Western Pacific.” 3
Whether the concern is over the status of Taiwan or Chinese territorial ambitions in the South China Sea, U.S.
strategic thinkers, academics, and military planners are increasingly apprehensive over China’s growing ability
to prevent U.S. naval freedom of movement in the region—often referred to as China’s “anti-access capability.”
Through a Spyglass, Distortedly
In a strategic sense, “How should the United States counter Chinese anti-access capabilities?” is the wrong, or
at least incomplete, question. Looking at relations with China through a naval-warfare lens alone clouds our
strategic thinking, which prevents analyzing the issue effectively.
In the 21st century, qualifying naval tonnage or tallying up missile ranges and submarine numbers does not
adequately inform our overarching view of the situation. In a world where a Taiwanese company in mainland
China makes half of the consumer and business electronics in the world, it is insufficient to scrutinize military
actions alone. 4 To further our strategic understanding, a Sino-American confrontation scenario must scrutinize
military timelines, and more important, implications for the U.S. and world economies.
We live in Thomas Friedman’s “flat world,” one of increasing interconnectedness. But do we really understand
what this implies?
In the current literature surrounding the Chinese military threat, there is little to indicate our methods of strategic
thinking have changed. Kraska’s piece clearly highlights the shortcomings of our current mindset regarding
Chinese military capabilities. He describes the buildup to the sinking of the George Washington in one sentence:
“The incident—could it really be called a ‘war’?—had been preceded by a shallow diplomatic crisis between the
two great powers.” 5 While Kraska warns of a Chinese rise and U.S. decline, he fails to fully examine factors that
led to his scenario and therefore continues to hamper our analysis.
Erickson and Yang ask whether Chinese leaders have considered the dangers of a lopsided focus on technical
capabilities, “without a proper understanding of the potential strategic risks involved.” 6 While they ask if the
Chinese leadership understands the strategic risks, they fail to ask if the United States has considered the
strategic and, more important, the economic risks resulting from any conflict with China.
In Red Star Over the Pacific (Naval Institute Press, 2010), Naval War College professors Toshi Yoshihara and
James Holmes examine the rise of the Chinese military. However, they also appear to dismiss the wider
ramifications of a Sino-American conflict. In describing the Chinese advantages of firing antiship missiles deep
from inland China, the authors write, “the United States would risk a limited naval conflict escalating into a
full-blown war against China, its leading trading partner.” 7 While they note that China is America’s largest
trading partner, they still imply a limited naval conflict over Taiwan is possible.
Globalization touches every facet of our modern world and would play a central role in the event of U.S.-China
hostilities. It is not enough to posit “a shallow diplomatic crisis” or to believe there could exist a limited naval
conflict around Taiwan. Highlighted by the preceding examples, present-day literature examining possible U.S.
conflict with China over Taiwan entirely dismisses the notion of an integrated world, and the larger economic
risks and consequences of those actions. Whether we are analyzing this issue from a strategic, great-power, or
military perspective, understanding of globalization and the interconnected nature of the United States and
China is critical.
Economic Links to China and Taiwan
U.S. concern over China’s anti-access capabilities primarily center on a China-Taiwan scenario. A number of
military options are open to China in responding to a Taiwan crisis. The Department of Defense report, Military
and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2010 , examined four conventional military
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3. methods China could use to force Taiwan’s acquiescence: blockade, limited force or coercive option, air and
missile campaign, or invasion. However, all of these options require, at minimum, some preparation if for no
other reason than to fuel ships, assemble soldiers, and prepare rockets. There is no feasible way to
immediately attack or invade Taiwan overnight.
If there can be no instantaneous coercion of Taiwan, then there must be an understanding of the buildup to
a China-Taiwan conflict and a wider Sino-American war. If we appreciate the interconnected nature of the
world and recognize how a conflict might occur, we will better comprehend how our strategic questions must
change.
Most people know that we rely on China for much of what we consume, yet perhaps few fully understand
the immensity of that reliance. Writing in The Atlantic , James Fallows gives a partial run-down of what
China produces:
computers, including desktops, laptops, and servers; telecom equipment, from routers to mobile
phones; audio equipment, including anything MP3-related, home stereo systems, most portable
devices, and headsets; video equipment of all sorts, from cameras and camcorders to replay
devices; personal-care items and high-end specialty-catalog goods; medical devices; sporting
goods and exercise equipment; any kind of electronic goods or accessories; and, for that matter,
just about anything else you can think of. 8
U.S. angst over the outsourcing of jobs overseas rests primarily with the label “Made in China.” Tainted dog
food, lead-based paints on children’s toys, and the recent suicides at high-tech assembly plants all keep
Chinese production in our consumer consciousness. As the steady march of global integration continues,
the U.S. public is continually surprised by what else it learns. Only after a number of suicides in Shenzhen
did many become aware that a Taiwan-based electronics manufacturer named Foxconn employs more than
920,000 people in China and produces electronics for IBM, Cisco, Microsoft, Nokia, Sony, Hewlett-Packard,
and Apple. 9
While Foxconn is the Taiwanese and Chinese face of globalization, Apple Computer, which is inexorably
linked to both China and Taiwan, is an international face of the United States. The backs of iPads, iPhones,
and iPods are all stamped “Designed by Apple in California, Assembled in China.” For Apple, currently the
second largest company in the world by market capitalization, most of its parts and final production travels
through the Western Pacific. An iPod’s hard drive is built in both China and the Philippines, its display
module is built in Taiwan, and all of its components are shipped to China for final assembly. A Foxconn plant
in Longhua, China, produces 137,000 iPhones a day, or about 90 a minute. And if the iPod and iPhone are
not enough to illustrate the importance of China, the Apple iPad begins its shipping route in Shenzhen,
China, and then goes to a Federal Express shipping facility in Hong Kong. 10
These examples, which do not even account for the $900 billion that China holds in U.S. government debt,
along with countless other globalization facts, dictate that easy separation between military analyses and
wider economic and political factors is insufficient in advancing our strategic thinking. To accurately examine
a possible military conflict over Taiwan, a full understanding of the buildup to a conflict is required. Here is
one way a Taiwan Strait Crisis might unfold.
Sino-American War = Plummeting Economy?
A blockade or invasion of Taiwan likely would arise from a regional diplomatic or military incident, or a return
to the policies of former Taiwanese President Chen Shui Bian. While a declaration of independence by
Taiwan is widely seen as the catalyst for a Sino-American conflict, an unforeseen episode between China
and Taiwan is perhaps just as likely to escalate into an international incident. As evident in the November
2010 diplomatic confrontation between China and Japan after a Chinese fishing vessel rammed into a
Japanese coast guard ship, relatively minor episodes in this region can quickly escalate into international
crises.
In the event of such escalation, domestic tensions in both China and Taiwan would fuel diplomatic rhetoric,
preventing either government from backing down. As Susan Shirk, a former deputy assistant secretary of
State, has written, “it is universally believed in China that the Chinese Communist Party would fall if it
allowed Taiwan to become independent without putting up a fight.” 11
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4. Therefore, the Chinese would have to make an overt statement and convey their resolve to prevent a
unilateral declaration of independence emanating from Taiwan. One way to show such resolve would
be to announce increased readiness of Chinese rocket forces, and preparations to put People’s
Liberation Army Navy surface ships and submarines to sea. This would demonstrate the seriousness of
the military threat to Taiwan and make a clear statement to a domestic audience that only China will
decide the fate of Taiwan. The United States would respond in kind militarily, if for no other reason than
to ensure an adequate deterrence posture.
International economic markets would watch these events closely, and any announcement of military
activities would set off a downward spiral in the international stock markets. Both Apple and Walmart,
which receive most, if not all of their production from China, would see their stock prices plummet.
Although a majority of Americans do not watch the stock market regularly, approximately 50 percent of
the U.S. population owns stocks either outright or through mutual funds and 401Ks. Companies such
as Apple, Walmart, and hundreds of others are heavily invested in China, Taiwan, and the rest of the
Western Pacific. The resulting dive in the stock market would make Americans acutely aware of just
how connected their financial well-being is linked to China and Taiwan.
As tensions mount, it is not hard to imagine a lone commander making a rash decision that escalates
the situation. In response to such an act, or out of a need to please a domestic audience, either China
or Taiwan might pursue a military option. If events continue to spiral, Chinese leadership would feel
they have no choice but to take steps to ensure Taiwan remained part of One China, thus ensuring the
Communist Party remained in power. In this scenario, China would declare a maritime- and
air-inspection zone (or to the rest of the world, a blockade) around Taiwan.
The U.S. government would not be immune to the nationalist pressures confronting the Chinese
Communist Party. Right-wing bloggers and political pressure groups would wave the Taiwan Relations
Act (regardless of what it says) and use this opportunity to confront China and protect U.S. hegemony.
The American political establishment would not allow China to forcibly coerce a multiparty democracy
to bend to its will, and in the worst-case scenario, U.S. political pressures and the need to reassure
allies would force a retaliatory trade embargo. Both Chinese and U.S actions would significantly impact
seagoing and airborne trade in the vicinity of China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the Strait of
Malacca. Even without a formal blockade, the civilian response to this scenario would be the same.
Once a threat of a military strike against Taiwan became a possibility, or if Chinese submarines were to
put to sea in large numbers to enforce a blockade, commercial shipping in the area would drop off
dramatically of its own accord.
Instant Fallout
The impact to the world economy would be instantaneous. Apple, along with other technology firms that
rely on China, would face disaster. Foxconn could not be expected to continue production, even if it
were somehow able to get to its components during the crisis. As a Taiwanese company, Foxconn
would have no room to maneuver. Within days, if not hours, half of the world’s supply of consumer and
business electronics would dry up.
Walmart, even more broadly reflective of the wider U.S. economy, would fare little better. In the era of
“just-in-time logistics,” when shipping companies act as Walmart’s warehouse, it only would be a few
days before the United States would start seeing eerily empty shelves, not only at Walmart but at other
stores across the country. Companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that are dependent on sales
and growth in China—including Alcoa, Caterpillar, General Electric, McDonald’s, and Boeing, to name a
few—would see huge losses. The technology-heavy NASDAQ companies would lose even more of
their stock-market value.
This scenario is not meant to be a scare tactic, and it is not based on the fear of a militarily capable
China. It simply represents the reality in which we live. The vital economic links between the United
States and China mean that even the buildup to a military conflict would have dire effects. The United
States should be alarmed about “Chinese strategic writings, which often express considerable
confidence that China can manage strategic escalation in measured increments with a high degree of
certainty.” 12
Chinese Missiles and the Walmart Factor http://www.usni.org/print/8219
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5. Conflict with China would not be an isolated or limited affair. In any type of Sino-American war
scenario there should be no expectation that political leaders could manage the economic fallout.
Both sides, and the entire world economy, would be devastated by the economic consequences,
and the ramifications would affect all facets of U.S. society.
Asking the Right Question
Concerns over China’s ostensibly peaceful rise still highlight how critical it is for the United States
to manage its relations with China. As China analyst Andrew Scobell states, “To China’s leaders
the potential for a conventional conflict with the U.S. is highly unlikely in the near future, with the
notable exception of Taiwan.” 13
So where does this leave the vital discussion about U.S.-Chinese relations? As China becomes
more of a potential military rival, U.S. strategic thinking needs to evolve beyond the age-old
question of “How do we counter?” Perhaps the real question is, “How do we prevent any type of
military conflict with China?” While this may appear a subtle distinction, it cannot be dismissed,
given 21st-century realities.
The United States cannot allow the DF-21D missile to dominate and deflect its strategic thinking
about China. A Taiwanese businessman and his company, Foxconn, have taken care of any
“carrier-killers.” What the United States truly needs to fear, and do everything in its power to
prevent, is a China that believes it has nothing to lose by opposing America in some type of
military engagement. In this case no amount of deterrence would prevent a catastrophic conflict.
The United States must make it clear that if China were to try to use coercive military means to
prevent Taiwan from declaring its de facto independence, there would be no strategic winner. Once
this is understood, then the question of how to prevent a military conflict with China takes on new
importance.
According to Susan Shirk, “preventing war with a rising China is one of the most difficult foreign
policy challenges our country faces.” 14 Ensuring the development of a mature, self-confident
China is the responsibility of the U.S. government through the State Department. Providing specific
recommendations for this delicate and long-term task is beyond the scope of this article, but as a
minimum, the U.S. military needs to ensure it does not stand as an impediment to this crucial task.
The United States will need to do everything it can to help manage China’s transition and ensure it
is done with minimal disruption to the world’s political and economic order. The world has changed
dramatically since the fall of the Soviet Union. Nations are intertwined as never before, and the
dynamics of the world economy and international society have changed the way we interact with
the world community. The United States needs to ensure its strategic thinking changes in
response.
1. “China’s Carrier Killers,” Newsweek , 4 October 2010; “China’s Anti-Ship Missiles Aren’t
Effective Yet, U.S. Navy Says,” Bloomberg News , 4 January 2011; “China’s Push to Modernize
Military is Bearing Fruit,” The New York Times , 6 January 2011.
2. James Kraska, “How the U.S. Lost the Naval War of 2015,” Orbis , vol. 54, no. 1 (Winter 2010),
pp. 35–45.
3. Andrew S. Erickson and David D.Yang, “Using the Land to Control the Sea? Chinese Analysts
Consider the Antiship Ballistic Missile,” Naval War College Review , vol. 62, no. 4 (Autumn 2009),
www.usnwc.edu/Publications/Naval-War-College-Review/2009---Autumn.aspx [6] .
4. Thomas Dinges, “Foxconn Rides Partnership with Apple to Take 50 Percent of EMS Market in
2011,” iSuppli, 27 July 2010, www.isuppli.com/Manufacturing-and-Pricing/News/Pages/Foxconn-
Rides-Partn... [7] .
5. Kraska, “How the U.S. Lost.”
6. Erickson and Yang, “Using the Land.”
Chinese Missiles and the Walmart Factor http://www.usni.org/print/8219
5 of 16 8/13/15, 10:53 PM
6. 7. Toshi Yoshihara and James R. Holmes, Red Star Over the Pacific: China’s Rise and the
Challenge to U.S. Maritime Strategy (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2010), p. 75.
8. James Fallows, “China Makes, the World Takes,” The Atlantic , July/August 2007,
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2007/07/china-makes-the-world-takes... [8] .
9. “A Look Inside Foxconn, Where iPhones are Made,” Bloomberg Businessweek , 12
September 2010.
10. “The iPod has Global Value,” The New York Times , 28 June 2007; “The Man Who Makes
your iPhone,” Bloomberg Businessweek , 9 September 2010.
11. Susan L. Shirk, China, Fragile Superpower: How China’s Internal Politics Could Derail Its
Peaceful Rise (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007), p. 186.
12. Erickson and Yang, “Using the Land.”
13. Andrew Scobell, “Is There a Civil-Military Gap in China’s Peaceful Rise?” Parameters , vol.
39, no. 2 (Summer 2009), pp. 4–21.
14. Shirk, p. 268.
Lieutenant Commander Harper has served multiple tours on Aegis destroyers and was an
operational planner for the U.S. 7th Fleet based in Yokosuka, Japan. His most recent
assignment was as a special assistant to the Commander of U.S. Africa Command.
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The Russian Baltic Fleet Sovremennnyy-class guided
missile destroyer Bespokoynyy ("Restless... Read More
[164]
Lest We Forget
Built by Bethlehem Shipbuilding Corporation of Quincy,
Massachusetts, the USS Detroit (CL-8) was... Read More
[165]
Lest We Forget
Named for Lieutenant Paul Riley, a naval aviator who died
during the Battle of Midway, the USS... Read More [166]
World Naval Developments
Don’t Rain on My B-2 The B-2 is in trouble again. In
August, a congressional study... Read More [167]
Lest We Forget
The minesweeper Revenge (AM-110, later MSF-110) was
the sixth II.S. naval vessel to bear that... Read More [168]
First Division: In Their Own Words
Many leaders in the military services claim that today's
youth cannot be led. Those leaders... Read More [169]
The U.S. Navy: Search the Oceans
A specialized nuclear-propelled submarine, developed in
great secrecy, has become one of the Navy... Read More
[170]
World Naval Developments: U.S. Army Goes for Big
Picture
At its annual show in October, the U.S. Army's vision of
the future was front and center. All... Read More [171]
Charting a Course Away from the Pension
Altering the DOD retirement system along the path of
least resistance lacks focus and direction.... Read More
[172]
Often the Only Option
The unique integrated attributes of naval forces can
provide the foundation for new security... Read More [173]
Combat Fleets
Outwardly identical to 14 Archer-class, P.2000-design
training patrol boats delivered to Britain... Read More [174]
Lest We Forget
Chinese Missiles and the Walmart Factor http://www.usni.org/print/8219
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15. The cruiser USS New Orleans (CA-32) was built at
the New York Navy Yard and launched on 12 April...
Read More [175]
Lest We Forget
Built by the Portsmouth Navy Yard of New
Hampshire, the USS Sirago (SS-485), a Tench-
class... Read More [176]
Lest We Forget
The second U.S. Navy warship to bear the name
Guam was the second of the controversial large...
Read More [177]
World Naval Developments
Carrier Forces Remain Free to Act The recent
stand-off between the United States and Iraq... Read
More [178]
Lest We Forget
The ammunition ship Pyro (AE-1), named for the
Greek word meaning fire, was the first U.S. vessel...
Read More [179]
World Navies in Review
In a year without significant naval combat other than
that incident to the ongoing civil war in... Read More
[180]
Because We Can, We Should
Capstone Essay Contest The U.S. military has
served as the big stick in U.S. politics for the... Read
More [181]
Navy Blue Goes Green
With growing national emphasis on environmental
issues, the Navy is taking steps to seize the... Read
More [182]
The U.S. Navy: The Battleships Are Back!
Ardent battleship supporters have won another
round; the Navy has reinstated two battleships...
Read More [183]
Air Detachment or Air Department?
LAMPS IIIs offer their ships a lot of capability
—standoff sensors and weapons, for starters... Read
More [184]
Lest We Forget
The destroyer USS Morris (DD-417) was the seventh
Morris to serve with U.S. naval forces. Built... Read
More [185]
‘Leadership over Management’
Editor’s Note: Former Secretary of the Navy John
Lehman’s article (September 2011... Read More [186]
Combat Fleets
Singapore received the first of its two newly rebuilt
Västergötland-class (Type A-17)... Read More [187]
Lest We Forget
The second U.S. Navy ship named Herndon
(DD-638) was launched on 2 February and
commissioned on... Read More [188]
Quality of Life at Sea
The sacrifice of time away from home is unavoidable,
but the U.S. Navy could learn a lot from its... Read
More [189]
Historic Aircraft - First of the Many
The name Douglas has long been associated with
outstanding U.S. naval attack aircraft—... Read More
Chinese Missiles and the Walmart Factor http://www.usni.org/print/8219
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Lest We Forget
Laid down under a Maritime Commission
contract on 1 July 1944, the attack transport
Allendale (... Read More [191]
Combat Fleets
On 30 September the U.S. Navy officially
disestablished the 2nd Fleet at Norfolk, Virginia,
in an... Read More [192]
Lest We Forget
The USS Perch (SS-176) was a Porpoise
(SS-172)-class submarine commissioned on 19
November 1936.... Read More [193]
Combat Fleets
The first new Turkish MILGEM-class corvette,
the TCG Heybeliada (pictured here), was
commissioned... Read More [194]
Lest We Forget
Named for Rear Admiral Edward Simpson, a
Civil War-era naval hero, the USS Simpson
(DD-221) was... Read More [195]
Combat Fleets
The Dutch Ministry of Defense plans to upgrade
its four De Zeven Provinciën–class... Read More
[196]
Nobody Asked Me, But. . . - ‘Choreographed’
Training Is Dancing with the Devil
Pier sentries are inspecting a vehicle. Just
before letting it proceed, a sailor asks the
driver... Read More [197]
Combat Fleets
The long-rumored transfer and lease of the
Russian Akula-class attack submarine Nerpa to
India... Read More [198]
Events and Conferences
None found for this author.
Source URL: http://www.usni.org/magazines
/proceedings/2011-07/chinese-missiles-
and-walmart-factor
Chinese Missiles and the Walmart Factor http://www.usni.org/print/8219
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