AI / Deep learning as predictor of conversion

1. THE POTENTIAL OF DEEP LEARNING IN MARKETING
INSIGHTS FROM PREDICTING CONVERSION WITH DEEP LEARNING
Rutger Ruizendaal

5. DEEP LEARNING
Computer Vision Speech Recognition Natural Language Processing

6. DEEP LEARNING: Growth at Google

7. 1. INTRODUCTION

8. • Master Business Administration
• Master Marketing Communication
• Data Scientist at MIcompany
INTRODUCTION
ABOUT ME
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017

9.  Neural Networks modelled after the human brain
INTRODUCTION
DEEP LEARNING
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017

10. INTRODUCTION
DEEP LEARNING FOR BEHAVIORAL TARGETING
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017
 Method
Behavioral
Data
Prediction/
Classification
Deep
Learning

11. INTRODUCTION
DEEP LEARNING FOR BEHAVIORAL TARGETING
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017

12.  Academic papers –> Potential in Finance, Education, Marketing etc.
 Lack of empirical research
 Predicting next action (Tamhane et al., 2017; Tang et al., 2016)
 Predicting conversion
 Comparison with Traditional Machine Learning models
INTRODUCTION
DEEP LEARNING IN MARKETING
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017

13.  Research Problem:
What is the value of deep learning models for predicting conversion?
INTRODUCTION
RESEARCH PROBLEM
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017
VALUE?

14. 2. DATA COLLECTION
& MODELLING

15. DATA COLLECTION
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017

16. • Month of StudyPortals’ click-stream data
• 56 million+ events
• 36.000 converting users
• Balanced dataset
DATA COLLECTION
SOME QUICK NUMBERS
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017

17. TRADITIONAL MACHINE LEARNING VS. DEEP LEARNING
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017
TML DL

18. Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017
TRADITIONAL MACHINE LEARNINGDEEP LEARNING
*Visualization based on Zalando tech blog

19. 3. RESULTS

20. RESULTS
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017
• Converting users
• Interactions
• Scrolling
• Computer users
• Non-converting users
• Average page time
• Scholarship pages
• Mobile users

21. RESULTS
IMPORTANT FEATURES
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017
Scrolling
Average page time
Country
Interactions

22. RESULTS
BEST PERFORMING MODELS
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017
Traditional Machine Learning
• Gradient Boosted Trees
• 83.60% accuracy
• 5s training time
• <1s prediction time
Deep Learning
• RNN with LSTM
• 90% accuracy
• > 90s training time
• >25s prediction time
• 9th epoch

23. 4. CONCLUSION

24. • Research Problem: What is the value of deep learning models for
predicting conversion?
• Predictive performance
• Gets better with bigger data
• When to keep using Traditional Machine Learning
• Generalizability for Marketing applications
CONCLUSION
OF MY RESEARCH
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017

25. • Can handle language, images, video, audio
• AI in Marketing
• Human touch
CONCLUSION
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE INDUSTRY?
Deep Learning for Behavioral Targeting 02/10/2017

26. 5. THANK YOU

27. 6. QUESTIONS?