The document provides a global economic report covering indicators for major economies including the US, Canada, Europe, China, and others. It includes sections on stock market performance, US economic indicators such as employment and business activity, global financial markets, and economic data from other regions. Overall, the report analyzes the current state of the global economy and key metrics for assessing economic growth and recovery.
This report aims to predict the spot exchange rate of USD/AUD on 28/08/2015 using a single equation regression model with independent variables such as interest rates, economic growth, trade balance, inflation rates, and other factors. The report finds that a model including lagged exchange rates, interest rate differentials, commodity indexes, capital account changes, economic growth differentials, and trade balances provides the best fit. This model predicts a spot exchange rate of 0.727209 for 28/08/2015, indicating an appreciation of the USD against the AUD. However, the single equation model has some limitations such as inconsistent data frequencies and an inability to fully capture qualitative factors.
Noah Blanton's Drivers of Supply and Demand for Oregon Real Estate Market UpdateAaron Stelle
This document summarizes the housing market and broader economic conditions in the Portland metro area. It finds that while housing demand remained strong through 2020, supported by low interest rates and pent-up demand, the market faces risks from potential job losses, rising interest rates, and the eventual impact of mortgage forbearance programs ending. The recovery is also expected to be uneven across different geographic areas, housing types, and industries. Overall, the market may remain undersupplied for 12-18 months but volatility is expected to return as the economic impacts of the pandemic continue to unfold.
Economic and Financial Outlook - Leslie Preston - TD EconomistWPCoC
This document provides an economic outlook and analysis from TD Economics. It summarizes recent global, US, Canadian and regional economic performance and forecasts. Key points include ongoing struggles for the global economy to accelerate, varied regional growth patterns, China's economic rebalancing, a rebounding US economy, modest Canadian growth supported by exports and consumers, and housing market resilience with slowing price gains. Risks to the outlook include geopolitical issues while upside potential exists if other economies improve more than expected.
- US and European stock futures fell as concerns over global growth and the outcome of Greece's debt swap weighed on investor sentiment.
- European stocks dropped with banks and resource stocks declining the most. Eurozone GDP contracted 0.3% in Q4 according to a report.
- Private investors holding about 20% of Greek bonds involved in the debt swap have declared participation in the restructuring so far.
- Asian stocks fell sharply led by miners following global markets lower on growth worries. The Hang Seng dropped 2.2% and Shanghai fell 1.4%.
The document provides a daily report on the foreign exchange market and economic indicators from around the world:
- The US dollar is looking to comments from the Chicago Fed president for clues on the likelihood of a reduction in the Fed's asset purchase program in September.
- The Japanese yen fell against counterparts as Japanese stock markets rose on news the country's pension fund may invest more in equities.
- The Australian dollar rallied after the central bank cut rates but provided no clear guidance on further easing, making the data-dependent.
- Upcoming economic indicators and central bank comments are highlighted from countries including the US, UK, eurozone, China, and others.
- U.S. stock futures pointed to losses, with Dow futures down 16 points and S&P and Nasdaq futures down 5 and 16 points respectively.
- Asian stocks closed lower as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea persisted. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.05% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 2.04%.
- European stocks also moved sharply lower with the Stoxx 600 dropping 1.03% as all sectors declined.
Special report by epic research of 28 december 2017Epic Research
Epic Research is leading financial advisory company, We provide a daily special report on each segment of share market that helps traders to get a better overview of the market. It also improves return on investment.
The document provides a review and outlook of the global economy in 2014 and 2015. Some key points:
- Global economic growth picked up in late 2013 but remained lackluster in 2014, with advanced economies like the US, Eurozone, and Japan seeing only tepid private spending growth as they adjusted to previous balance sheet adjustments.
- Diverging monetary policies between the US Fed tightening and ECB/BOJ maintaining stimulus caused increased market volatility in 2014. This divergence is expected to be a challenge for the global economy in 2015.
- US economic growth strengthened in the second half of 2014 but faces hurdles returning to full recovery. The Fed is expected to begin raising rates in mid-
Get the benefits of two days free trial service. Easily register at Epic Research and get Intraday tips, MCX tips, commodity tips, MCX tips and much more by our team of experts. Register Today.
Secondary data analysis of Pakistan key macroeconomic variables on the KSE_100_Index. The analysis provide a ready insight to descriptive statistics, correlation, linear & multi-stage regression, qualitative & quantitative forecast patterns and much more. For the study,IBM SPSS and Microsoft EXCEL solution is used. Secondary data is sourced from trending economics for 18-years (wef January 2000 to June 2018)
In this paper, we analyze the effect of socially responsible investments within a multi-asset portfolio optimization model. We also attempt to bridge the gap in the real estate literature between sustainability principles and investment analysis. To this aim, listed real estate companies with an active sustainability agenda, identified through the MSCI ESG database, represent the sustainable real estate asset class. Applying a downside risk approach by using a conditional value at risk (CVaR) optimization technique, we establish empirically whether diversification benefits can be achieved by investing in companies with a proven track record in sustainability. Our results highlight the potential contribution of listed real estate companies with high sustainability ratings to an institutional investor’s portfolio taking into account differences in investment style and risk aversion.
There are some of important key points to get success in stock market those are: Set long term investment Goals, Keep updates about the live stock market, Resolve your risk, Invest in valuable stocks, Trade in Market time ect. For live updates and tips visit Epic Research.
If you want to invest in Long Term Investment Stocks in Indian Market so Epic Research provides stock market analysis reports you can get information about the which stock you should by. Our well stock market specialist provides stock tips.
This document summarizes a New Zealand Treasury paper that explores the relationship between the size of government and economic growth. It finds that while some government expenditure can promote growth, large governments can undermine growth through the costs of taxation needed to fund spending. Taxes reduce incentives to work, save and invest. However, the impact depends on the type of spending and which taxes are used. While New Zealand's government size is average for the OECD, spending has grown faster than GDP recently. Reducing less productive spending and improving efficiency could allow tax cuts while maintaining services, potentially boosting growth. The economic impacts must be weighed against other objectives.
Epic research special stock market report 17th oct 2016Epic Research
Epic Research has proven itself best by offering optimum trading tips to traders. They help traders in learning useful stock market insights by offering them daily reports.
The document provides a global economic report covering indicators for major economies including the US, Canada, Europe, China, and others. It includes sections on stock market performance, US economic indicators such as employment and business activity, global financial markets, and economic data from other regions. Overall, the report analyzes the current state of the global economy and key metrics for assessing economic growth and recovery.
This report aims to predict the spot exchange rate of USD/AUD on 28/08/2015 using a single equation regression model with independent variables such as interest rates, economic growth, trade balance, inflation rates, and other factors. The report finds that a model including lagged exchange rates, interest rate differentials, commodity indexes, capital account changes, economic growth differentials, and trade balances provides the best fit. This model predicts a spot exchange rate of 0.727209 for 28/08/2015, indicating an appreciation of the USD against the AUD. However, the single equation model has some limitations such as inconsistent data frequencies and an inability to fully capture qualitative factors.
Noah Blanton's Drivers of Supply and Demand for Oregon Real Estate Market UpdateAaron Stelle
This document summarizes the housing market and broader economic conditions in the Portland metro area. It finds that while housing demand remained strong through 2020, supported by low interest rates and pent-up demand, the market faces risks from potential job losses, rising interest rates, and the eventual impact of mortgage forbearance programs ending. The recovery is also expected to be uneven across different geographic areas, housing types, and industries. Overall, the market may remain undersupplied for 12-18 months but volatility is expected to return as the economic impacts of the pandemic continue to unfold.
Economic and Financial Outlook - Leslie Preston - TD EconomistWPCoC
This document provides an economic outlook and analysis from TD Economics. It summarizes recent global, US, Canadian and regional economic performance and forecasts. Key points include ongoing struggles for the global economy to accelerate, varied regional growth patterns, China's economic rebalancing, a rebounding US economy, modest Canadian growth supported by exports and consumers, and housing market resilience with slowing price gains. Risks to the outlook include geopolitical issues while upside potential exists if other economies improve more than expected.
- US and European stock futures fell as concerns over global growth and the outcome of Greece's debt swap weighed on investor sentiment.
- European stocks dropped with banks and resource stocks declining the most. Eurozone GDP contracted 0.3% in Q4 according to a report.
- Private investors holding about 20% of Greek bonds involved in the debt swap have declared participation in the restructuring so far.
- Asian stocks fell sharply led by miners following global markets lower on growth worries. The Hang Seng dropped 2.2% and Shanghai fell 1.4%.
The document provides a daily report on the foreign exchange market and economic indicators from around the world:
- The US dollar is looking to comments from the Chicago Fed president for clues on the likelihood of a reduction in the Fed's asset purchase program in September.
- The Japanese yen fell against counterparts as Japanese stock markets rose on news the country's pension fund may invest more in equities.
- The Australian dollar rallied after the central bank cut rates but provided no clear guidance on further easing, making the data-dependent.
- Upcoming economic indicators and central bank comments are highlighted from countries including the US, UK, eurozone, China, and others.
- U.S. stock futures pointed to losses, with Dow futures down 16 points and S&P and Nasdaq futures down 5 and 16 points respectively.
- Asian stocks closed lower as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea persisted. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.05% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 2.04%.
- European stocks also moved sharply lower with the Stoxx 600 dropping 1.03% as all sectors declined.
Special report by epic research of 28 december 2017Epic Research
Epic Research is leading financial advisory company, We provide a daily special report on each segment of share market that helps traders to get a better overview of the market. It also improves return on investment.
The document provides a review and outlook of the global economy in 2014 and 2015. Some key points:
- Global economic growth picked up in late 2013 but remained lackluster in 2014, with advanced economies like the US, Eurozone, and Japan seeing only tepid private spending growth as they adjusted to previous balance sheet adjustments.
- Diverging monetary policies between the US Fed tightening and ECB/BOJ maintaining stimulus caused increased market volatility in 2014. This divergence is expected to be a challenge for the global economy in 2015.
- US economic growth strengthened in the second half of 2014 but faces hurdles returning to full recovery. The Fed is expected to begin raising rates in mid-
Get the benefits of two days free trial service. Easily register at Epic Research and get Intraday tips, MCX tips, commodity tips, MCX tips and much more by our team of experts. Register Today.
Secondary data analysis of Pakistan key macroeconomic variables on the KSE_100_Index. The analysis provide a ready insight to descriptive statistics, correlation, linear & multi-stage regression, qualitative & quantitative forecast patterns and much more. For the study,IBM SPSS and Microsoft EXCEL solution is used. Secondary data is sourced from trending economics for 18-years (wef January 2000 to June 2018)
In this paper, we analyze the effect of socially responsible investments within a multi-asset portfolio optimization model. We also attempt to bridge the gap in the real estate literature between sustainability principles and investment analysis. To this aim, listed real estate companies with an active sustainability agenda, identified through the MSCI ESG database, represent the sustainable real estate asset class. Applying a downside risk approach by using a conditional value at risk (CVaR) optimization technique, we establish empirically whether diversification benefits can be achieved by investing in companies with a proven track record in sustainability. Our results highlight the potential contribution of listed real estate companies with high sustainability ratings to an institutional investor’s portfolio taking into account differences in investment style and risk aversion.
There are some of important key points to get success in stock market those are: Set long term investment Goals, Keep updates about the live stock market, Resolve your risk, Invest in valuable stocks, Trade in Market time ect. For live updates and tips visit Epic Research.
If you want to invest in Long Term Investment Stocks in Indian Market so Epic Research provides stock market analysis reports you can get information about the which stock you should by. Our well stock market specialist provides stock tips.
This document summarizes a New Zealand Treasury paper that explores the relationship between the size of government and economic growth. It finds that while some government expenditure can promote growth, large governments can undermine growth through the costs of taxation needed to fund spending. Taxes reduce incentives to work, save and invest. However, the impact depends on the type of spending and which taxes are used. While New Zealand's government size is average for the OECD, spending has grown faster than GDP recently. Reducing less productive spending and improving efficiency could allow tax cuts while maintaining services, potentially boosting growth. The economic impacts must be weighed against other objectives.
Epic research special stock market report 17th oct 2016Epic Research
Epic Research has proven itself best by offering optimum trading tips to traders. They help traders in learning useful stock market insights by offering them daily reports.
The document is a monthly report from Laird Research that provides economic data and analysis from around the world. It includes indicators for the US economy, global financial markets, key interest rates, inflation, and employment, business activity, consumption and housing data for the US. It also includes indicators for Canada, Europe, China, and other regions. The report finds that the US economy continues to grow while Europe faces challenges from fiscal austerity, and that lower oil prices are slowing growth in Canada but not creating a manufacturing boom.
Domestic and international stocks fell last week despite some positive economic indicators in the US. Treasury yields also declined as concerns about slowing global growth remained. Commodity prices dropped significantly, with several commodities reaching multi-year lows. While US economic data such as home sales and jobless claims were encouraging, corporate earnings came in mixed with some large technology companies reporting disappointing results. Overall, markets pulled back after recent highs, though the earnings season has started out better than expected overall.
Various leading indicators suggest a constructive backdrop for equities ahead. Improving economic fundamentals and positive leading indicators like the LEI and ISM Services Index signal further equity market gains. The author recommends an overweight position in equities over bonds, with a focus on cyclical sectors that have outperformed recently. On the fixed income side, the author advocates a "bear flattener" strategy of favoring corporate bonds over Treasuries and long-term bonds over short-term bonds.
Netwealth portfolio construction series - Discover cost effective investment ...netwealthInvest
The document summarizes an investment webinar discussing index opportunity funds as an evolved strategy for today's investment climate.
The webinar presented index opportunity funds as having a passive foundation of pooled funds and ETFs for stability and low costs, with an active overlay for added returns. ETFs allow building a globally diversified portfolio cost effectively. Tactical asset allocation is used to allocate between equities, fixed income and commodities depending on the economic cycle.
The economic environment has changed to one of lower growth, higher volatility and lower returns. This favors strategies with downside protection, diversification and lower costs like index opportunity funds.
Feds decision implications for CRE 15 2015 perspective and analysisMatthew Marshall
This document summarizes economic projections from the Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents from December 2015. It projects modest GDP growth between 2.0-2.5% annually through 2018 and a gradual decline in the unemployment rate to around 4.7-5.0% through the longer run. Inflation is projected to be around 2.0% each year. The median projection shows the federal funds rate rising gradually to around 3.3-3.5% by 2018. Several charts show historical interest rates and inflation remaining low. The summary concludes that there is no guarantee long-term interest rates will rise significantly and that inflation is a more important indicator to watch than the federal funds rate.
- U.S. stock index futures pointed higher ahead of the Fed decision, while European and Asian markets closed mixed.
- Many retail experts have predicted the demise of Sears Canada for over a decade as its sales decline, and it issued a warning about its ability to continue as a going concern.
- Panera Bread expects digital sales including online, mobile and kiosk orders to pass $1 billion annually this year and double to $2 billion by 2019 as digital ordering pays off for the company.
ClearPath Investment Perspectives - Nov 17 2014bcdconna
The document is a weekly investment newsletter from ClearPath Capital Partners dated November 17, 2014. It provides an overview of the US and global economic outlooks, recent market performance, and commentary on stocks, bonds, and consumer spending. Global GDP and inflation are forecast to increase in 2014 and 2015. US GDP is expected to grow 2.9% in 2014 and stock markets posted gains last week, with the S&P 500 up 7.21% for the month. Retail sales rose slightly in October and lower gas prices are expected to boost consumer spending.
- The document is a 2016 outlook report from First National Bank's wealth management division.
- It predicts another year of low stock market returns and increased volatility as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.
- The US economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate 2.5% pace, supported by a strong job market but facing headwinds from weak business investment and slowing growth in emerging markets like China.
- Inflation is predicted to remain moderate due to factors like the strong dollar and low commodity prices.
The document provides an economic outlook and forecasts for the US economy from BBVA Compass. It summarizes that global growth is expected to remain weak in 2016. While the US job market and consumer spending remain strong, private business investment growth is lackluster. Lower oil prices boost energy-intensive industries but hurt the energy sector. Inflation is below target and the Federal Reserve remains cautious about raising interest rates given subpar growth and low inflation. The US dollar is expected to remain strong relative to other currencies.
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Current State of the Capital Markets 2010BoyarMiller
This document summarizes a presentation on the current state of the capital markets given on September 10, 2010. It discusses 2010 market performance data for various asset classes. It then covers topics like the end of the recession, unemployment, credit availability, the housing market, government stimulus, and earnings estimates. The presentation outlines risks in 2010 like the withdrawal of stimulus, China slowing, and debt issues. It recommends investment strategies focused on capital preservation and diversification. Charts on interest rates, government and consumer debt, and corporate cash levels are also included. The next sections will cover private equity, debt markets, mergers and acquisitions, and conclusions.
From the BPV Capital Management investment team comes our most recent update on capital markets. In this issue, we examine how the stabilizing global economy pushed equities, interest rates, and commodities higher in April.
This document provides an overview and agenda for a presentation on successful planning strategies for life and investments. It discusses Barry Mendelson's background and experience in financial services. It also summarizes Just Plans Etc., the firm he founded, which provides financial planning and investment management. The presentation agenda covers investment planning, personal planning, and charitable giving strategies.
- The document provides an economic and market outlook from Dr. Chris Caton in December 2015. It summarizes forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in countries around the world, including Australia, China, the US, and others. It also examines topics like the Australian dollar, house prices, share markets, employment, inflation, and monetary policy. The conclusion reiterates that moderate economic growth is expected in Australia, with the mining investment boom having ended and no significant pickup in non-mining investment yet.
This document provides an overview of various stock market indices, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities prices from 2016 back to 2006. It shows that most indices saw negative returns over the past year, with concerns over China's economy being a major factor. Interest rates remain low by historical standards. The US dollar has strengthened against other major currencies in recent years, while oil prices have fallen sharply but gold prices have risen.
Similar to Global Economics Report - September 2014 (19)
Optimizing Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the Financial Sector (With Examples).pdfshruti1menon2
NIM is calculated as the difference between interest income earned and interest expenses paid, divided by interest-earning assets.
Importance: NIM serves as a critical measure of a financial institution's profitability and operational efficiency. It reflects how effectively the institution is utilizing its interest-earning assets to generate income while managing interest costs.
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance36 Crypto
Learn in-depth about Dogecoin's trajectory and stay informed with 36crypto's essential and up-to-date information about the crypto space.
Our presentation delves into Dogecoin's potential future, exploring whether it's destined to skyrocket to the moon or face a downward spiral. In addition, it highlights invaluable insights. Don't miss out on this opportunity to enhance your crypto understanding!
https://36crypto.com/the-future-of-dogecoin-how-high-can-this-cryptocurrency-reach/
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
New Visa Rules for Tourists and Students in Thailand | Amit Kakkar Easy VisaAmit Kakkar
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"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
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An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
1. . Laird Research - Economics
Sep 15, 2014
Where we are now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Indicators for US Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Global Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
US Key Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
US In
ation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
QE Taper Tracker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
US Banking Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
US Employment Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
US Business Activity Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
US Consumption Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
US Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Global Business Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Canadian Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
European Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Chinese Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Where we are now
Welcome to the Laird Report. It’s job is to stick a the pin on the
global economy’s map that says ”You are here”. We present a com-pendium
of economic data from around the world to help figure this
out.
The Great Divergence seems to be the new theme in economics.
North America seems to be in good shape with inflation ticking up to
the goldilocks zone of 2% and employment slowly recovering. Europe
continues to be a mess, though again we are seeing some recovery in
employment. The challenge with Europe continues to be deflation -
prices simply aren’t strengthening the way that policy makers hoped.
The vaunted Quantitative Easing program which is currently being
wound down by the US is actually being picked up by the Europeans.
Europe-wide data shows inflation is still very low. The headwinds of the
economy now seem to be pointing to de
ation in a number of countries.
QE in the US was brought in because of fiscal paralysis, so the Fed gave
the economy a monetary boost – Europe seems to be indicating they
will try the same thing.
China also continues to slow. Chinese officials were concerned about
bubbles and have been slowly been letting the steam out of the system
to catch up with the rest of the world. The retail sales growth numbers
are slowing down, and other measures like industrial production and
fixed asset investment are weak. Australia is a good proxy for what is
going on in China because it is heavily resource driven and the main
customer is China - and Australia is being hit as well.
Formatting Notes The grey bars on the various charts are OECD
recession indicators for the respective countries. In many cases, the last
available value is listed, along with the median value (measured from
as much of the data series as is available).
Subscription Info For a FREE subscription to this monthly re-port,
please visit sign up at our website: www.lairdresearch.com
Laird Research, Sep 15, 2014
2. Indicators for US Economy
Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the
economy as a whole changes. They are useful as short-term predictors
of the economy. Our list includes the Philly Fed’s Leading Index which
summarizes multiple indicators; initial jobless claims and hours worked
(both decrease quickly when demand for employee services drops and
vice versa); purchasing manager indicies; new order and housing per-mit
indicies; delivery timings (longer timings imply more demand in
the system) and consumer sentiment (how consumers are feeling about
their own financial situation and the economy in general).
Leading Index for the US
Index: Est. 6 month growth
−3 −1 1 2 3
Growth
Contraction
median: 1.40
Jul 2014: 1.57
Initial Unemployment Claims
1000's of Claims per Week
200 400 600
median: 352.00
Sep 2014: 304.00
Manufacturing Ave. Weekly Hours Worked
Hours
39 40 41 42 43 44
median: 40.60
Aug 2014: 42.00
ISM Manfacturing − PMI
Index: Steady State = 50
30 40 50 60 70
median: 53.20
Aug 2014: 59.00
expanding economy
contracting economy
Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods
Billions of Dollars
150 200 250 300
median: 182.51
Jul 2014: 300.22
ISM Manufacturing: Supplier Deliveries
Index
40 50 60 70
median: 51.60
Slower Deliveries Aug 2014: 53.90
Faster Deliveries
Capex (ex. Defense & Planes)
Percent change (3 months)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10 −5 0 5
median: 0.86
Jul 2014: 2.64
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Index Value
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−4 −2 0 2
median: 0.08
Jul 2014: 0.39
U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Index 1966 Q1 = 100
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
50 70 90 110
median: 88.30
Aug 2014: 82.50
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 2
3. Global Financial Markets
Global Stock Market Returns
Country Index Name Close Date Current
Value
Weekly
Change
Monthly
Change
3 month
Change
Yearly
Change
Corr to
S&P500
Corr to
TSX
North America
USA S&P 500 Sep 12 1,985.5 -1.1% t 2.7% s 2.9% s 17.9% s 1.00 0.57
USA NASDAQ Composite Sep 12 4,567.6 -0.3% t 4.1% s 6.3% s 22.9% s 0.90 0.49
USA Wilshire 5000 Total Market Sep 12 21,041.4 -1.1% t 2.8% s 2.8% s 17.4% s 0.99 0.57
Canada S&P TSX Sep 12 15,531.6 -0.2% t 1.7% s 4.2% s 22.3% s 0.57 1.00
Europe and Russia
France CAC 40 Sep 12 4,441.7 -1.0% t 6.7% s -2.5% t 8.2% s 0.55 0.31
Germany DAX Sep 12 9,651.1 -1.0% t 6.4% s -2.9% t 13.6% s 0.57 0.42
United Kingdom FTSE Sep 12 6,807.0 -0.7% t 2.6% s -0.5% t 3.3% s 0.47 0.37
Russia Market Vectors Russia ETF Sep 12 24.6 -3.0% t 2.3% s -6.5% t -9.8% t 0.49 0.25
Asia
Taiwan TSEC weighted index Sep 12 9,223.2 -2.0% t 0.7% s 0.2% s 12.1% s 0.22 0.11
China Shanghai Composite Index Sep 05 2,326.4 4.9% s 4.8% s 13.4% s 9.6% s -0.05 0.14
Japan NIKKEI 225 Sep 12 15,948.3 1.8% s 5.2% s 6.5% s 10.9% s -0.06 0.07
Hong Kong Hang Seng Sep 12 24,595.3 -2.6% t -0.4% t 6.1% s 7.2% s -0.02 0.23
Korea Kospi Sep 12 2,041.9 -0.4% t 0.0% s 1.5% s 1.9% s -0.13 -0.03
South Asia and Austrailia
India Bombay Stock Exchange Sep 12 27,061.0 0.1% s 4.6% s 5.8% s 36.8% s 0.07 0.09
Indonesia Jakarta Sep 12 5,143.7 -1.4% t 0.2% s 4.2% s 18.1% s 0.16 -0.00
Malaysia FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Sep 12 1,855.6 -0.7% t 0.3% s -1.0% t 4.7% s -0.04 -0.07
Australia All Ordinaries Sep 12 5,532.3 -1.2% t 0.2% s 2.3% s 5.6% s -0.12 0.11
New Zealand NZX 50 Index Gross Sep 12 5,224.0 -0.6% t 3.3% s 0.6% s 12.5% s 0.04 0.21
South America
Brasil IBOVESPA Sep 12 56,928.0 -6.2% t 0.9% s 3.9% s 6.8% s 0.28 0.32
Argentina MERVAL Buenos Aires Sep 12 11,054.1 6.1% s 30.7% s 37.0% s 151.5% s 0.28 0.15
Mexico Bolsa index Sep 12 45,799.7 -0.9% t 2.4% s 7.5% s 12.3% s 0.46 0.30
MENA and Africa
Egypt Market Vectors Egypt ETF Sep 12 73.6 -3.4% t -0.1% t 5.1% s 58.8% s -0.04 0.11
(Gulf States) Market Vectors Gulf States ETF Sep 12 34.3 0.4% s 4.6% s 3.9% s 41.5% s 0.18 -0.01
South Africa iShares MSCI South Africa Index Sep 12 68.2 -6.2% t -5.0% t -0.2% t 10.1% s 0.53 0.33
(Africa) Market Vectors Africa ETF Sep 12 32.2 -4.4% t -4.2% t -1.9% t 13.3% s 0.57 0.56
Commodities
USD Spot Oil West Texas Int. Sep 08 $92.6 -0.3% t -5.1% t -11.8% t -15.5% t 0.18 0.26
USD Gold LME Spot Sep 12 $1,237.2 -2.1% t -5.6% t -1.9% t -7.7% t -0.07 -0.10
Note: Correlations are based on daily arithmetic returns for the most recent 100 trading days.
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 3
4. S&P 500 Composite Index
The S&P 500 Composite Index is widely regarded as the best single
gauge of the large cap U.S. equities market. A key figure is the valua-tion
level of the S&P500 as measured by the Price/Earnings ratio. We
present two versions: (1) a 12-month trailing earnings version which
reflects current earnings but is skewed by short term variances and (2)
a cyclically adjusted version which looks at the inflation adjusted earn-ings
over a 10 year period (i.e. at least one business cycle). Forecasted
earnings numbers are estimates provided by S&P.
S&P 500 Profit Margins and Overall Corporate Profit Margins (Trailing 12 months)
Percent
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Percent
Total Corporate Profits (% of GDP) − median: 6.2%, Q2/14: 10.6%
Net Profit Margin (S&P 500 Earnings / Revenue) − median: 6.6%, Q2/14: 9.0%
S&P Quarterly Earnings (USD$ Inflation Adjusted to current prices)
US Financial Crisis
Savings and Loans Crisis
Reported Earnings
Operating Earnings
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
−5.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
−5.00
Tech Bubble
Japanese Asset Bubble
Asian Financial Crisis House Bubble
Eurozone crisis
Oil Crisis I Oil Crisis II
Gulf War
High Inflation Period
Vietnam War Afganistan/Iraq War
Trailing P/E Ratios for S&P500
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
50
40
30
20
10
0
50
40
30
20
10
0
Multiple
Multiple
12−month P/E ( median = 17.4, Sep = 18.5)
10−year CAPE ( median = 19.4, Sep = 24.9)
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 4
5. S&P 500 Composite Distributions
This is a view of the price performance of the S&P 500 index com-panies.
The area of each box is proportional to the company’s market
cap, while the colour is determined by the percentage change in price
over the past month. In addition, companies are sorted according to
their industry group.
FB
7.7%
AAPL
6%
USB MS
Financials
ORCL
2.7%
GOOG
2.7%
MSFT
10%
IBM
2%
BK
BLK
ADP
YHOO
PNC
MU
ADBE
CSCO QCOM
INTC
4.5%
V
1.7%
AFL CME
TRV
BEN
EMC
DFS
PSA
EBAY
HPQ
MA
TXN
CRM
FIS
STX
BRK−A
9.3%
WFC
3.2%
JPM
5.8%
BAC
11%
C
8.6%
AXP
GS AIG
MET
SPG
COF
AMT
ACE
STT
CB
HCN
VTR
HST
L
RF
TWX F GM
Consumer Discretionary
HD
12%
AMZN
7.6%
ABT ACT
MDT
JNJ
5.4%
COV
MCK
PFE
2.7%
MRK
TWC
UA TIF
M
TGT JCI
UNH BMY BIIB
GILD
16%
LLY
TMO
SYK AET
CI
A
MYL
DIS
5.4%
MCD
NKE
DTV
TJX
DG
LB
RL
APC
RTN DE
GD ITW
GE
2.6%
BHI
HES
WMB
Energy
CMI
UTX
UNP
11%
NOC
DAL
NSC
MMM
3.6%
NBL
OXY
COP
WM IR
UPS
BA
CAT
FDX
PCP
ETN
GLW
LUV
Telecommunications
APD
Services
Materials Utilities
MON
DD
KMB
WAG
WMT
4.2%
PX
GIS
CL
PG
4.8%
KO
SO
CVS
PM
3.2%
PEP
4.8%
MO
MDLZ
COST
ADM
NI
NEE
KR K
EL
SYY
XOM
−1.1%
CVX
SLB
−2.9%
HAL EOG
PSX
SE
VLO
RIG
DOW
LYB
PPG
IP
AA
CF
DUK
D
EIX ED
VZ
−1.6%
T
−1.4%
Information Technology
Health Care
Industrials Consumer Staples
<−25.0% −20.0% −15.0% −10.0% −5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% >25.0%
% Change in Price from Aug 01, 2014 to Sep 11, 2014
Average Median Median Median
Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E
Health Care 5.7% s 3.3 4.0 23.6
Financials 5.5% s 3.0 1.5 18.3
Information Technology 5.0% s 3.3 4.0 21.7
Industrials 4.7% s 1.6 3.3 20.4
Consumer Discretionary 4.7% s 1.6 4.2 20.5
Average Median Median Median
Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E
Consumer Staples 4.7% s 1.9 5.3 20.4
Utilities 4.0% s 1.4 1.6 17.0
Materials 2.8% s 1.6 3.4 23.2
Energy -0.6% t 2.0 1.8 18.8
Telecommunications Services -1.1% t 1.4 2.0 23.1
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 5
6. US Equity Valuations
A key valuation metric is Tobin’s q: the ratio between the market
value of the entire US stock market versus US net assets at replacement
cost (ie. what you pay versus what you get). Warren Buffet famously
follows stock market value as a percentage of GNP, which is highly
(93%) correlated to Tobin’s q.
We can also take the reverse approach: assume the market has
valuations correct, we can determine the required returns of future es-timated
earnings. These are quoted for both debt (using BAA rated
securities as a proxy) and equity premiums above the risk free rate (10
year US Treasuries). These figures are alternate approaches to under-standing
the current market sentiment - higher premiums indicate a
demand for greater returns for the same price and show the level of
risk-aversion in the market.
Tobin's q (Market Equity / Market Net Worth) and S&P500 Price/Sales
Tobin Q (median = 0.75, Mar = 1.11)
S&P 500 Price/Sales (median = 1.32, Jun = 1.72)
Paying up for growth
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
Buying assets at a discount
Equity and Debt Risk Premiums: Spread vs. Risk Free Rate (10−year US Treasury)
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Implied Equity Premium (median = 4.2%, Aug = 4.9%)
Debt (BAA) Premium (median = 2.0%, Aug = 2.3%)
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 6
7. US Mutual Fund Flows
Fund flows describe the net investments in equity and bond mutual
funds in the US market, as described in ICI’s “Trends in Mutual Fund
Investing” report. Note however that this is only part of the story as
it does not include ETF fund flows - part of the changes are investors
entering or leaving the market, and part is investors shifting to ETF’s
from mutual funds.
US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds
US$ billions (monthly)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
−40 −20 0 20 40
Domestic Equity
World Equity
Taxable Bonds
Municipal Bonds
US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds
US$ billions (Monthly)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
−60 −40 −20 0 20 40 60
Flows to Equity
Flows to Bonds
Net Market Flows
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 7
8. US Key Interest Rates
Interest rates are often leading indicators of stress in the financial
system. The yield curve show the time structure of interest rates on
government bonds - Usually the longer the time the loan is outstanding,
the higher the rate charged. However if a recession is expected, then
the fed cuts rates and this relationship is inverted - leading to negative
spreads where short term rates are higher than long term rates.
Almost every recession in the past century has been preceeded by an
inversion - though not every inversion preceeds a recession (just most
of the time).
For corporate bonds, the key issue is the spread between bond rates
(i.e. AAA vs BAA bonds) or between government loans (LIBOR vs
Fedfunds - the infamous “TED Spread”). Here a spike correlates to an
aversion to risk, which is an indication that something bad is happen-ing.
US Treasury Yield Curves
Forward Instantaneous Rates (%)
13
14
Sep 11, 2014 (Today) 3.0
Aug 11, 2014 (1 mo ago)
Jun 11, 2014 (3 mo ago)
11 Sep 2013 (1 yr ago)
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
3 Month & 10 Yr Treasury Yields 96
7% 10 Yr Treasury
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
3 Mo Treasury
Spread
AAA vs. BAA Bond Spreads
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
Percent
AAA
BAA
median: 91.00
Sep 2014: 66.00
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
300
200
100
0
300
200
100
0
Spread (bps)
LIBOR vs. Fedfunds Rate
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Percent
3 mos t−bill
LIBOR
median: 37.00
Sep 2014: 21.23
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
300
200
100
0
300
200
100
0
Spread (bps)
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 8
9. US In
ation
Generally, the US Fed tries to anchor long run inflation expectations
to approximately 2%. Inflation can be measured with the Consumer
Price Index (CPI) or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
index.
In both cases, it makes sense to exclude items that vary quickly like
Food and Energy to get a clearer picture of inflation (usually called
Core Inflation). The Fed seems to think PCI more accurately reflects
the entire basket of goods and services that households purchase.
Finally, we can make a reasonable estimate of future inflation ex-pectations
by comparing real return and normal bonds to construct an
imputed forward inflation expectation. The 5y5y chart shows expected
5 year inflation rates at a point 5 years in the future. Neat trick that.
Consumer Price Index
Percent
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
−1%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
−1%
US Inflation Rate YoY% (Jul = 2.0%)
US Inflation ex Food & Energy YoY% (Jul = 1.9%)
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Percent (Year over Year)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
PCE Inflation Rate YoY% (Jul = 1.6%)
PCE Core Inflation YoY% (Jul = 1.5%)
5−Year, 5−Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Percent
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
5 year forward Inflation Expectation
Actual 5yr Inflation (CPI measure)
Actual 5yr Inflation (PCE Measure
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 9
10. QE Taper Tracker
The US has been using the program of Quantitative Easing to pro-vide
monetary stimulous to its economy. The Fed has engaged in a
series of programs (QE1, QE2 & QE3) designed to drive down long
term rates and improve liquidity though purchases of treasuries, mor-gage
backed securites and other debt from banks.
The higher demand for long maturity securities would drive up their
price, but as these securities have a fixed coupon, their yield would be
decreased (yield coupon / price) thus driving down long term rates.
In 2011-2012, “Operation Twist” attempted to reduce rates without
increasing liquidity. They went back to QE in 2013.
The Fed chairman suggested in June 2013 the economy was recover-ing
enough that they could start slowing down purchases (“tapering”).
The Fed backed off after a brief market panic. The Fed announced in
Dec 2013 that it was starting the taper, a decision partly driven by
seeing key targets of inflation around 2% and unemployment being less
than 6.5%. These charts track that progress.
QE Asset Purchases to Date (Treasury Mortgage Backed Securities)
Trillions
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Treasuries QE1 QE2 Operation Twist QE3 Taper
Mortgage Backed Securities
Total Monthly Asset Purchases (Treasury + Mortgage Backed Securities)
200
150
100
Billions
50
0
−50
−100
200
150
100
50
0
−50
−100
Month to date Sep 10: $4.7
Inflation and Unemployment − Relative to Targets
Percent
10
8
6
4
2
0
10
8
6
4
2
0
Target Unemployment 6.5%
Target Inflation 2%
U.S. 10 Year and 3 Month Treasury Constant Maturity Yields
Percent
5
4
3
2
1
0
5
4
3
2
1
0
Short Term Rates:
Once at zero, Fed moved to QE
Long Term Rates:
Moving up in anticipation of Taper?
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 10
11. Exchange Rates
10 Week Moving Average CAD Exchange Rates
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0.62 0.71 0.81 0.90 1.00 1.09
USA / CAD
0.55 0.61 0.66 0.72 0.77 0.82
Euro / CAD
59.16 74.71 90.26 105.81 121.36 136.91
Japan / CAD
0.38 0.44 0.49 0.55 0.61 0.67
U.K. / CAD
0.59 0.98 1.36 1.74 2.12 2.51
Brazil / CAD
CAD Appreciating
CAD Depreciating
1 Month Change in Rates versus Average
3.0%
1.5%
−1.5%
−3.0%
Euro
2.6%
UK
2.8%
Japan
1.4%
South Korea
−1.0%
China
−1.2%
India
−1.2%
Brazil
−1.8%
Mexico
−2.0%
USA
0.7%
Canada
−0.7%
% Change over 3 months vs. Canada
BRA
−0.9%
ARG
−0.2%
KRW
2.9%
JPY
−3.0%
AUS
−1.8%
RUS
−7.0%
CHN
2.2%
IND
−0.3%
USA
2.2%
EUR
−2.2%
MXN
0.3%
ZAR
−0.6%
−10.0% −8.0% −6.0% −4.0% −2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
CAD appreciating CAD depreciating
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 11
12. US Banking Indicators
The banking and finance industry is a key indicator of the health
of the US economy. It provides crucial liquidity to the economy in the
form of credit, and the breakdown of that system is one of the exac-erbating
factors of the 2008 recession. Key figures to track are the
Net Interest Margins which determine profitability (ie. the difference
between what a bank pays to depositors versus what the bank is paid
by creditors), along with levels of non-performing loans (i.e. loan loss
reserves and actual deliquency rates).
US Banks Net Interest Margin
Percent
3.5 4.0 4.5
median: 3.95
2014 Q2: 3.10
Repos Outstanding with Fed. Reserve
Billions of Dollars
50 150 250
median: 52.86
Sep 2014: 267.60
Bank ROE − Assets between $300M−$1B
Percent
0 5 10 15
median: 12.84
2014 Q2: 9.42
Consumer Credit Outstanding
% Yearly Change
−5 0 5 10 15 20
median: 7.05
Jul 2014: 6.50
Total Business Loans
% Yearly Change
−20 0 10 20
median: 7.83
Aug 2014: 11.41
US Nonperforming Loans
Percent
1 2 3 4 5
median: 2.34
2014 Q2: 2.26
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 2 4 6
median: −0.0085
Sep 2014: −1.28
Commercial Paper Outstanding
Trillions of Dollars
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2
median: 1.36
Sep 2014: 1.05
Residential Morgage Delinquency Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
2 4 6 8 10
median: 2.30
2014 Q2: 7.39
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 12
13. US Employment Indicators
Unemployment rates are considered the “single best indicator of
current labour conditions” by the Fed. The pace of payroll growth is
highly correlated with a number of economic indicators.Payroll changes
are another way to track the change in unemployment rate.
Unemployment only captures the percentage of people who are in
the labour market who don’t currently have a job - another measure
is what percentage of the whole population wants a job (employed or
not) - this is the Participation Rate.
The Beveridge Curve measures labour market efficiency by looking
at the relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate.
The curve slopes downward reflecting that higher rates of unemploy-ment
occur coincidentally with lower levels of job vacancies.
Unemployment Rate
Percent
median: 6.25
11
10
9
8
7
6
4 Aug 2014: 6.10
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
5
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Percent
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Beveridge Curve (Unemployment vs. Job Openings)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Job Openings (% total Employment)
Dec 2000 − Dec 2008
Jan 2009 − Jun 2014
Jul 2014
Participation Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
63 64 65 66 67
median: 66.10
Aug 2014: 62.80
Total Nonfarm Payroll Change
Monthly Change (000s)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−500 0 500
median: 161.00
Aug 2014: 142.00
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 13
14. There are a number of other ways to measure the health of employ-ment.
The U6 Rate includes people who are part time that want a
full-time job - they are employed but under-utilitized. Temporary help
demand is another indicator of labour market tightness or slack.
The large chart shows changes in private industry employment lev-els
over the past year, versus how well those job segments typically pay.
Lots of hiring in low paying jobs at the expense of higher paying jobs
is generally bad, though perhaps not unsurprising in a recovery.
Median Duration of Unemployment
Weeks
5 10 15 20 25
median: 8.60
Aug 2014: 13.20
(U6) Unemployed + PT + Marginally Attached
Percent
8 10 12 14 16
median: 9.70
Aug 2014: 12.00
4−week moving average of Initial Claims
Jan 1995 = 100
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
50 100 150 200
median: 108.22
Sep 2014: 93.47
Financial Activities
0 200 400 600
Unemployed over 27 weeks
Millions of Persons
35
30
25
20
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
median: 0.78
Aug 2014: 2.97
Services: Temp Help
Millions of Persons
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.5 2.0 2.5
median: 2.24
Aug 2014: 2.90
15
Annual Change in Employment Levels (000s of Workers)
Average wages ($/hour)
Private Industry Employment Change (1 year)
Construction
Durable Goods
Education
Health Services
Information
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Mining and Logging
Nondurable Goods
Other Services
Professional
Business Services
Retail Trade
Transportation
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Circle size relative to total employees in industry
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 14
15. US Business Activity Indicators
Business activity is split between manufacturing activity and non-manufacturing
activity. We are focusing on forward looking business
indicators like new order and inventory levels to give a sense of the
current business environment.
Manufacturing Sector: Real Output
YoY Percent Change
−10 0 10 20
median: 6.07
2014 Q2: 10.45
ISM Manufacturing − PMI
Index
30 40 50 60 70
Aug 2014: 59.00
manufac. expanding
manufac. contracting
ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index
Index
30 40 50 60 70 80
Aug 2014: 66.70
Increase in new orders
Decrease in new orders
Non−Manufac. New Orders: Capital Goods
Billions of Dollars
40 50 60 70
median: 57.22
Jul 2014: 72.44
Average Weekly Hours: Manufacturing
Hours
39 40 41 42 43
median: 41.10
Aug 2014: 42.00
Industrial Production: Manufacturing
YoY Percent Change
−15 −5 0 5 10
median: 3.30
Jul 2014: 5.29
Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio
Ratio
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
median: 1.37
Jul 2014: 1.29
Chicago Fed: Sales, Orders Inventory
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−0.5 0.0 0.5
Above ave growth Jul 2014: 0.05
Below ave growth
ISM Non−Manufacturing Bus. Activity Index
Index
Growth
Contraction
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
35 45 55 65
Aug 2014: 65.00
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 15
16. US Consumption Indicators
Variations in consumer activity are a leading indicator of the
strength of the economy. We track consumer sentiment (their expec-tations
about the future), consumer loan activity (indicator of new
purchase activity), and new orders and sales of consumer goods.
U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Index 1966 Q1 = 100
50 60 70 80 90 110
median: 88.30
Aug 2014: 82.50
Consumer Loans (All banks)
YoY % Change
0 10 20 30
median: 7.10
Aug 2014: 3.42
Accounting
Change
Deliquency Rate on Consumer Loans
Percent
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
median: 3.48
2014 Q2: 2.26
New Orders: Durable Consumer Goods
YoY % Change
−30 −10 10 30
median: 3.86
Jul 2014: 7.82
New Orders: Non−durable Consumer Goods
YoY % Change
−20 0 10 20
median: 3.87
Jul 2014: 0.12
Personal Consumption Housing Index
Index
−0.4 0.0 0.2 0.4
median: 0.02
above ave growth Jul 2014: −0.10
below ave growth
Light Cars and Trucks Sales
Millions of Units
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
10 12 14 16 18 20 22
median: 14.76
Aug 2014: 17.45
Personal Saving Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
2 4 6 8 10
median: 5.60
Jul 2014: 5.70
Real Retail and Food Services Sales
YoY % Change
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10 −5 0 5
median: 2.36
Jul 2014: 2.43
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 16
17. US Housing
Housing construction is only about 5-8% of the US economy, how-ever
a house is typically the largest asset owned by a household. Since
personal consumption is about 70% of the US economy and house val-ues
directly impact household wealth, housing is an important indicator
in the health of the overall economy. In particular, housing investment
was an important driver of the economy getting out of the last few
recessions (though not this one so far). Here we track housing prices
and especially indicators which show the current state of the housing
market.
15 20 25 30 35
150 200 250 300
Personal Income vs. Housing Prices (Inflation adjusted values)
New Home Price (000's)
Disposable Income Per Capita (000's)
Jul 2014
r2 : 88.5%
Range: Jan 1964 − Jul 2014
New Housing Units Permits Authorized
Millions of Units
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
median: 1.36
Jul 2014: 1.06
New Home Median Sale Price
Sale Price $000's
100 150 200 250
Jul 2014: 269.80
Homeowner's Equity Level
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
40 50 60 70 80
median: 66.52
2014 Q1: 53.64
New Homes: Median Months on the Market
Months
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
4 6 8 10 12 14
median: 5.00
Jul 2014: 3.50
US Monthly Supply of Homes
Months Supply
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
4 6 8 10 12
median: 5.90
Jul 2014: 6.00
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 17
18. US Housing - FHFA Quarterly Index
The Federal Housing Finance Agency provides a quarterly survey
on house prices, based on sales prices and appraisal data. This gener-ates
a housing index for 355 municipal areas in the US from 1979 to
present. We have provided an alternative view of this data looking at
the change in prices from the peak in the 2007 time frame.
The goal is to provide a sense of where the housing markets are
weak versus strong.The colours represent gain or losses since the start
of the housing crisis (defined as the maximum price between 2007-2009
for each city). The circled dots are the cities in the survey, while the
background colours are interpolated from these points using a loess
smoother.
Change from 2007 Peak − Q2 2014
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
−10%
−20%
−30%
−40%
−50%
Today's Home Prices
Percentage Change from 2007−2009 Peak
Frequency
−75% −50% −25% 0% 25% 50% 75%
Year over Year Change − Q2 2014
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
−2%
−4%
−6%
−8%
−10%
YoY Change in this quarter
YoY Percent Change
Frequency
−15% −10% −5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 18
19. Global Business Indicators
Global PMI Reports
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an indicator reflecting
purchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services. An index read-ing
of 50.0 means that business conditions are unchanged, a number
over 50.0 indicates an improvement while anything below 50.0 suggests
a decline. The further away from 50.0 the index is, the stronger the
change over the month. The chart at the bottom shows a moving av-erage
of a number of PMI’s, along with standard deviation bands to
show a global average.
Global PMI − August 2014
Eurozone
50.7
MEX 56.1
52.1
Global PMI
52.6
TWN
40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 60.0
Contracting Steady Expanding
KOR
50.3
JPN
52.5
VNM
50.3
IDN
49.5
ZAF
49.0
AUS
47.3
BRA
50.2
CAN
54.8
CHN
50.2
IND
52.4
RUS
51.0
SAU
60.7
USA
57.9
Global PMI Monthly Change
Eurozone
−1.1
MEX 0.3
0.6
Global PMI
0.2
TWN
−5.0 −4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Deteriorating PMI Change Improving
KOR
1.0
JPN
2.0
VNM
−1.4
IDN
−3.2
ZAF
3.1
AUS
−3.4
BRA
1.1
CAN
0.5
CHN
−1.5
IND
−0.6
RUS
0.0
SAU
0.6
USA
2.1
Purchase Managers Index (Manufacturing) − China, Japan, USA, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Australia
Business Conditions Expanding
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
30 40 50 60 70
30 40 50 60 70
Business Conditions Contracting
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 19
21. OECD International Trade Data
The OECD calculates import and export values for member coun-tries.
Figures are seasonally adjusted and measured in billions of US
dollars. Red lines indicate exports, while blue lines indicate imports.
Green lines indicate the zero level.
The top part of the graph shows the changes in exports and imports
on a year-over-year basis, while the bottom part shows the difference
between exports and imports for that given month (i.e. the trade bal-ance)
China
YoY Change
40
20
0
−20
−40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
40
30
20
10
0
−10
US
YoY Change
40
20
0
−20
−40
−60
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0
−20
−40
−60
−80
Canada
YoY Change
10
5
0
−5
−10
−15
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 2 4 6
−2
Germany
YoY Change
20
0
−20
−40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
30
25
20
15
10
0 5
Japan
YoY Change
20
10
0
−10
−20
−30
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
10
0 5
−5
−10
South Korea
YoY Change
15
10
0 5
−5
−10
−15
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 2 4 6
−2
−4
India
YoY Change
15
10
5
0
−5
−10
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0
−5
−10
−15
Australia
YoY Change
0 2 4 6
−2
−4
−6
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 1 2 3 4
−1
−2
Eurozone
YoY Change
40
20
0
−20
−40
−60
−80
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
20
10
0
−10
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 21
22. Canadian Indicators
Retail Trade (SA)
YoY Percent Change
−5 0 5 10
median: 4.76
Jun 2014: 5.90
Total Manufacturing Sales Growth
YoY Percent Growth
−20 0 10 20
median: 4.13
Jun 2014: 6.88
Manufacturing New Orders Growth
YoY Percent Growth
−30 −10 0 10 20 30
median: 4.46
Jun 2014: 1.62
Sales and New Orders (SA)
YoY Percent Change
−20 0 10 20
Sales
New Orders (smoothed)
10yr Government Bond Yields
0 2 4 6 8 10
median: 5.80
Aug 2014: 2.00
Manufacturing PMI
50 51 52 53 54 55
Aug 2014: 54.80
Tbill Yield Spread 3mo vs 10 yr
Spread (10yr − 3mo)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−1 0 1 2 3 4
median: 1.36
Aug 2014: 1.06
Inflation (total and core)
YoY Percent Change
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−1 0 1 2 3 4
median: 1.94
Jul 2014: 2.11
Total
Core
Inventory to Sales Ratio (SA)
Ratio
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
median: 1.35
Jun 2014: 1.39
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 22
23. 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6
1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9
Beveridge Curve (Mar 2011 − May 2014)
Unemployment Rate
Vacancy rate (Industrial)
Mar 2011 − Dec 2012
Jan 2013 − Apr 2014
May 2014
Property vs. Rent Prices
Owned Property Price Index Rent Price Index
50 100 150 40 60 80 100
Calgary
Montreal
Vancouver
Toronto
Unemployment Rate (SA)
Percent
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Canada 7.0%
Alberta 4.9%
Ontario 7.4%
Debt Service Ratios (SA)
Percent
4 6 8 10
Canada 7.0%
Alberta 4.9%
Ontario 7.4%
Housing Starts and Building Permits (smoothed)
YoY Percent Change
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−40 −20 0 20 40
Permits
Starts
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 23
24. European Indicators
Unemployment Rates
Percentage
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Business Employment Expectations
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−40 −20 0 10
Industrial Orderbook Levels
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−60 −40 −20 0 20
Country Employment
Expect.
Unempl.
(%)
Bond Yields
(%)
Retail
Turnover
Manufacturing
Turnover
In
ation
(YoY %)
Industry
Orderbook
PMI
Series Dates Aug 2014 Aug 2014 Aug 2014 Jul 2014 Jul 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Aug 2014
France -10.0 s 10.3 s 1.41 t 105.3 t 110.0 s 0.6 u -22.2 s 46.9 t
Germany -2.8 t 4.9 t 0.95 t NA 113.9 s 0.8 t -10.5 t 51.4 t
United Kingdom 6.8 t 6.4 u 2.12 t 111.7 t NA 1.9 s 8.9 s 52.5 t
Italy -8.1 t 12.6 s 2.63 t NA NA 0.0 t -23.2 t 49.8 t
Greece 1.0 t 27.0 t 6.09 t NA NA -0.8 s -16.8 t 50.1 s
Spain -6.4 t 24.5 t 2.17 t NA NA -0.4 t -12.2 s 52.8 t
Eurozone (EU28) -2.8 t 10.2 u 1.97 t 104.6 t 108.6 t 0.7 s -13.1 s NA
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 24
25. Government Bond Yields
Long Term Yields %
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 2 4 6 8 10
Economic Sentiment
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
60 70 80 90 110 130
Consumer Confidence
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−100 −60 −20 0 20
Inflation (Harmonized Prices)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 2 4 6
median: 2.00
Jun 2014: 0.50
Euro Area
US
Harmonized Inflation: Jun 2014
AUT
1.7%
BGR
−1.1%
NOR
2.2%
DEU
0.8%
GBR
1.9%
ESP
−0.4%
FIN
1.0%
FRA
0.6%
HUN
0.5%
GRC
−0.8%
IRL
0.5%
ISL
2.3%
ITA
0.0%
POL
0.0%
ROU
1.5%
SWE
0.4%
−1.0%0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
YoY % Change in Prices
PMI: August 2014
40.042.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.060.0
Contracting Steady Expanding
BRA
50.2
CAN
54.8
DEU
51.4
ESP
52.8
FRA
46.9
GBR
52.5
GRC
50.1
IRL
57.3
ITA
49.8
MEX
52.1
POL
49.0
SAU
60.7
TUR
50.3
USA
57.9
PMI Change: Jul − Aug
−5.0−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Deteriorating PMI Change Improving
CAN
0.5
DEU
−1.0
ESP
−1.1
FRA
−0.9
GBR
−2.9
GRC
1.4
IRL
1.9
ITA
−2.1
POL
−0.4
TUR
1.8
USA
2.1
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 25
26. Chinese Indicators
Tracking the Chinese economy is a tricky. As reported in the Fi-nancial
Times, Premier Li Keqiang confided to US officials in 2007 that
gross domestic product was “man made” and “for reference only”. In-stead,
he suggested that it was much more useful to focus on three alter-native
indicators: electricity consumption, rail cargo volumes and bank
lending (still tracking down that last one). We also include the PMI
- which is an official version put out by the Chinese government and
differs slightly from an HSBC version. Finally we include the Shanghai
Composite Index as a measure of stock performance.
Manufacturing PMI
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
40 45 50 55 60
Aug 2014: 50.20
Shanghai Composite Index
Index Value (Monthly High/Low)
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Aug 2014: 2217.20
Electricity Generated
100 Million KWH (log scale)
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1000 2000 3000 5000
Aug 2014: 4959.00
Electricity Generated
Long Term Trend
Short Term Average
Consumer Confidence Index
Index
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
98 100 102 104 106 108
median: 103.00
Jul 2014: 104.40
Exports
YoY Percent Change
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−20 0 20 40 60 80
median: 19.30
Aug 2014: 9.40
Retail Sales Growth
YoY Percent Change
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
10 15 20
median: 13.15
Aug 2014: 11.90
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 26
27. Global Climate Change
Temperature and precipitation data are taken from the US National
Climatic Data Center and presented as the average monthly anomaly
from the previous 6 months. Anomalies are defined as the difference
from the average value over the period from 1961-1990 for precipitation
and 1971-2000 for temperature.
Average Temperature Anomalies from Jan 2014 - Jun 2014
−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
−4 −2 0 2 4
Cooler Anomalies in Celcius Warmer Anomalies in Celcius
Average 6 month Precipitation Anomalies from Feb 2014 - Jul 2014
−40.0 −30.0 −20.0 −10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
−40 −20 0 20 40
Drier Anomalies in millimeters Wetter Anomalies in millimeters
www.lairdresearch.com Sep 15, 2014 Page 27