The document summarizes the current state of the global economy. It notes that renewed economic pessimism and growing debt concerns have caused stock markets to decline over the summer. While a slowdown has begun, data does not necessarily indicate an imminent recession, though the risk has increased. The document also discusses challenges facing the Eurozone, with comments regarding Greece adding uncertainty. It argues the debt crises must be effectively managed to avoid a global recession, though available policy tools are more limited than in 2008.
The document provides an international and domestic macroeconomic outlook. Key points internationally include concerns over Greek debt maturing in March and potential impacts on stock markets. Domestically, industry figures in January are expected to remain weak year-over-year. Recent inflation estimates show a slowing trend towards the 5.5% target for 2012. The current account deficit is expected to widen further in coming months.
1) The European sovereign debt crisis remains uncontained, with fiscal burdens increasing across many eurozone countries and further sharp fiscal consolidation still required.
2) While the ECB has taken measures to improve bank lending and reduce bond yields, credit conditions are still tightening and bond yields remain elevated in troubled countries.
3) The eurozone faces the risk of a broader crisis scenario that could significantly slow growth across the region and leave Greece and Portugal stuck in deep recessions for years.
The document provides an overview of global market performance and key economic indicators. UK and European markets closed lower due to political uncertainty in Italy and Greece. In the US, markets closed slightly higher after comments from an ECB policymaker predicted the Eurozone crisis would end within two years. Most Asian markets are trading lower due to Eurozone debt concerns and Italian political turmoil. Key economic data releases are scheduled throughout the day from several countries including the UK, Germany, France, Switzerland, US and Canada.
The document discusses Latvia's experience during the 2008 financial crisis and recovery. It explains that Latvia chose an internal devaluation through austerity and structural reforms rather than devaluing its currency. This led to a rapid but difficult adjustment period and a "V-shaped" economic recovery. Key factors in Latvia's success included speed of implementation, ownership of reforms, commitment to change, and national solidarity. The internal adjustment approach stabilized public finances, restored competitiveness and exports, attracted foreign investment, and put Latvia in a strong position to adopt the Euro in 2014.
The economic outlook for the sector - Andrew SentanceCFG
The document discusses the implications of a "new normal" economy for charities. It suggests that since the 2008 financial crisis, Western economies will experience prolonged disappointing growth, volatility, and high commodity prices (Phase 1). However, a clearer growth dynamic may emerge in developing countries and later in Western countries in Phase 2. For charities, this means a challenging fundraising climate with economic uncertainty, but also opportunities to help stressed societies. Charities need resilience, good management, and risk assessment to navigate this environment.
Taiwan's economic situation and outlook , june 2012tuagu79
The document summarizes Taiwan's economic situation and outlook in June 2012. It finds that Taiwan's real GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 0.39% in Q1 2012 due to contracting exports and weak domestic demand. While the global economy is expected to modestly grow in 2012, Taiwan's export and GDP growth will likely be muted at around 3% due to uncertainties from Europe and China. Taiwan ran a trade surplus in April 2012 as exports declined 6.4% and imports rose 2.1% year-on-year. China remains Taiwan's largest export market while Japan is still its biggest import source.
The document provides an international and domestic macroeconomic outlook. Key points internationally include concerns over Greek debt maturing in March and potential impacts on stock markets. Domestically, industry figures in January are expected to remain weak year-over-year. Recent inflation estimates show a slowing trend towards the 5.5% target for 2012. The current account deficit is expected to widen further in coming months.
1) The European sovereign debt crisis remains uncontained, with fiscal burdens increasing across many eurozone countries and further sharp fiscal consolidation still required.
2) While the ECB has taken measures to improve bank lending and reduce bond yields, credit conditions are still tightening and bond yields remain elevated in troubled countries.
3) The eurozone faces the risk of a broader crisis scenario that could significantly slow growth across the region and leave Greece and Portugal stuck in deep recessions for years.
The document provides an overview of global market performance and key economic indicators. UK and European markets closed lower due to political uncertainty in Italy and Greece. In the US, markets closed slightly higher after comments from an ECB policymaker predicted the Eurozone crisis would end within two years. Most Asian markets are trading lower due to Eurozone debt concerns and Italian political turmoil. Key economic data releases are scheduled throughout the day from several countries including the UK, Germany, France, Switzerland, US and Canada.
The document discusses Latvia's experience during the 2008 financial crisis and recovery. It explains that Latvia chose an internal devaluation through austerity and structural reforms rather than devaluing its currency. This led to a rapid but difficult adjustment period and a "V-shaped" economic recovery. Key factors in Latvia's success included speed of implementation, ownership of reforms, commitment to change, and national solidarity. The internal adjustment approach stabilized public finances, restored competitiveness and exports, attracted foreign investment, and put Latvia in a strong position to adopt the Euro in 2014.
The economic outlook for the sector - Andrew SentanceCFG
The document discusses the implications of a "new normal" economy for charities. It suggests that since the 2008 financial crisis, Western economies will experience prolonged disappointing growth, volatility, and high commodity prices (Phase 1). However, a clearer growth dynamic may emerge in developing countries and later in Western countries in Phase 2. For charities, this means a challenging fundraising climate with economic uncertainty, but also opportunities to help stressed societies. Charities need resilience, good management, and risk assessment to navigate this environment.
Taiwan's economic situation and outlook , june 2012tuagu79
The document summarizes Taiwan's economic situation and outlook in June 2012. It finds that Taiwan's real GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 0.39% in Q1 2012 due to contracting exports and weak domestic demand. While the global economy is expected to modestly grow in 2012, Taiwan's export and GDP growth will likely be muted at around 3% due to uncertainties from Europe and China. Taiwan ran a trade surplus in April 2012 as exports declined 6.4% and imports rose 2.1% year-on-year. China remains Taiwan's largest export market while Japan is still its biggest import source.
Mark Rajkowski, CFO of Credit Suisse, presented at the 2012 Global Paper & Packaging Conference. He outlined Credit Suisse's business model, which focuses on commercial excellence, innovation, and emerging markets to drive revenue growth of over 5% annually. This growth, combined with margin expansion through operational leverage and productivity, is expected to produce earnings growth of 7-10% and top quartile total shareholder returns.
ETX Capital -From The Floor is a daily briefing and global market report to k...ETX_Capital
The UK and European markets closed higher yesterday rebounding from losses as better German confidence and Greek/Spanish bond auctions buoyed sentiment. However, gains were limited after reports that the German Chancellor opposed raising the lending limit of the ESM bailout fund. In the US, markets closed lower extending declines as the Fed refrained from additional measures and weak retail sales weighed on sentiment. Asian markets are trading lower this morning tracking overnight Wall Street losses and declines in exporters on growth concerns.
This document summarizes the global economic outlook from Swedbank. It notes that global GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013 have been revised downward to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively, due to slowing growth in developed economies and emerging markets. While some countries saw upward revisions to 2012 growth due to strong early year results, growth is expected to weaken further in 2013, especially in the eurozone and US. Potential global growth is now estimated around 3.8%, lower than previous estimates, due to issues like high debt levels, weak financial systems, and insufficient reforms. Downside risks to the outlook are seen as more probable than upside risks.
UK and European markets declined amid concerns about the spreading sovereign debt crisis, while US markets closed higher supported by better-than-expected retail sales data. Asian markets are trading lower today due to worries about the new Italian government's ability to address the debt crisis. Several economic indicators are scheduled for release from the UK, Eurozone and US that will provide further insight into inflation and economic growth trends.
Andrew Sentence: The "New Normal" for the global economyNuffield Trust
- The global economy is expanding but the recovery is uneven, with growth in Asia outpacing the EU and US.
- This recovery differs from previous recoveries in the 1980s and 1990s with slower growth across advanced and emerging economies.
- Asia-Pacific has become the dominant global economic region while UK growth has disappointed, averaging only 1.3% since 2009.
Economic update – Keith Wade’s presentation at the LBS Investing Strategy event London Business School
Keith Wade is Chief Economist and strategist at Schroders. He is responsible for the economics team and the house view of the world economy. Prior to joining Schroders he was a researcher at London Business School's Centre for Economic Forecasting. In the presentation he discusses the current economic cycle, the likely trajectory and investment options for pension schemes having long term outlooks but short term pressure to manage volatility.
The “Investment Strategy 2013: Peering into the Crystal Ball” event was organised by The Pensions Management Institute and London Business School’s Alumni Club. It took place on 8 October 2012.
Principais destaques:
Semana Passada:
-“O Euro é Irreversível” – Nova política monetária do banco Central Europeu;
-Zona Euro vai continuar a contrair;
-“Grécia: Vais ser expulsa da Zona Euro?”;
-“Espanha: Não tens alternativas”;
Estimativa Europa, não apresentam melhorias;
Estimativa EUA, “Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3), cada vez mais perto”;
Perspectivas para esta semana:
Europa:
Tribunal Constitucional Alemão decide sobre ESM;
Eleições Legislativas Holanda;
Decisão da Troika sobre a Grécia;
Pedido de resgate (cada vez + próximo) por parte de Espanha?
EUA:
Reunião do FED (5ª feira);
Anúncio do “Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3);
Dados macroeconómicos (Inflação, Vendas a retalho, Produção Industrial e Confiança do consumidor);
China:
Dados macroeconómicos Import/Export (indicam abrandamento);
The Lithuanian Economy, No.2, 9 March/2011Swedbank
The Lithuanian economic sentiment indicator reached its lowest point in the first half of 2009 but has been gradually improving since then, though it remains in negative territory, indicating continued pessimism. The recovery of sentiment across different sectors has been uneven - while services confidence has been positive since early 2010, construction confidence remains weak at -40 points. Consumer confidence increased in the first half of 2010 but has stalled more recently due to high inflation and slowing wage and jobs growth. Overall the economic sentiment recovery is noticeable but gradual as structural unemployment remains high and domestic demand is still subdued.
This document projects the future size of major world economies in 2050 compared to 2005. It finds that emerging economies like China and India will significantly grow their share of the global economy. By 2050, the combined economy of 7 large emerging markets (E7) may be 25% larger than the current G7 when measured in US dollars, and 75% larger when measured in purchasing power parity terms. India has the potential to become the fastest growing large economy and may be similar in size to the US by 2050. China will also continue growing rapidly to become the largest economy after the US. Other emerging economies like Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico will also see strong growth to surpass some current European powers in size.
Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides brokerage services including receiving, executing, and transmitting orders. The document discusses weekly market perspectives and does not constitute investment advice. Fincor will not accept responsibility for any use or effects of the content. It summarizes discussions on Greece requesting a delay in austerity measures, opposition from some European leaders to more delays, and economic data from Greece, Spain, Germany, France, and the Eurozone.
The key global indices closed lower as concerns grew over Europe's debt crisis. In the UK, mining stocks declined on falling metal prices and banks fell due to debt exposure. European markets also closed lower with banks and insurers down, while poor earnings further weighed on sentiment. US markets finished lower as well, dragged down by bank shares and concerns over Europe. Most Asian markets are trading lower today tracking the declines.
The document discusses Santander's 2010 results and 2011 outlook. In 2010, Santander achieved solid profit generation of EUR 8.18 billion despite challenges in mature markets. Credit quality showed improvement, with declining net non-performing loan entries and risk premiums across the group and in main business units. Diversification across geographies helped drive growth, with emerging markets increasing profits despite difficulties in Europe. Santander also strengthened its capital and liquidity positions in 2010.
Presented by Dennis R. Chrisbaum
Director, International Trade Finance
Office of International Trade
U.S. Small Business Administration
409 – 3rd Street, S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20416
Tel: 202.205.6885
E-mail: dennis.chrisbaum@sba.gov
Web: www.sba.gov/international
ETX Capital -From The Floor is a daily briefing and global market report to k...ETX_Capital
- UK and European markets closed lower as German officials expressed pessimism about a comprehensive solution to the eurozone debt crisis at an upcoming summit. Financial stocks declined.
- US markets ended mostly higher on hopes that European leaders would announce a solution to the eurozone crisis. Clean energy and bank stocks gained.
- Asian markets are trading lower ahead of the crucial EU summit, with declines in Japan due to weaker machinery orders and higher Australian unemployment.
SANTANDER CONSUMER FINANCE-SANTANDER INVESTOR DAY 2011BANCO SANTANDER
Santander Consumer Finance se mueve en niveles récord de beneficios en 2011 y continuará haciéndolo en 2012 y 2013. Presentación Magda Salarich. Santander Investor Day 2011
Swedbank is a large Swedish bank operating in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. As of 2010, it had over 1.7 trillion SEK in total assets and nearly 10 billion SEK in operating profits. It serves over 4 million private customers and over 300,000 corporate customers across its four home markets. Swedbank aims to be accessible to customers through branches, online, and phone banking and to offer a wide range of banking services including savings, loans, investments and insurance.
Purchasing Managers' Index Report July 2009Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Mark Rajkowski, CFO of Credit Suisse, presented at the 2012 Global Paper & Packaging Conference. He outlined Credit Suisse's business model, which focuses on commercial excellence, innovation, and emerging markets to drive revenue growth of over 5% annually. This growth, combined with margin expansion through operational leverage and productivity, is expected to produce earnings growth of 7-10% and top quartile total shareholder returns.
ETX Capital -From The Floor is a daily briefing and global market report to k...ETX_Capital
The UK and European markets closed higher yesterday rebounding from losses as better German confidence and Greek/Spanish bond auctions buoyed sentiment. However, gains were limited after reports that the German Chancellor opposed raising the lending limit of the ESM bailout fund. In the US, markets closed lower extending declines as the Fed refrained from additional measures and weak retail sales weighed on sentiment. Asian markets are trading lower this morning tracking overnight Wall Street losses and declines in exporters on growth concerns.
This document summarizes the global economic outlook from Swedbank. It notes that global GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013 have been revised downward to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively, due to slowing growth in developed economies and emerging markets. While some countries saw upward revisions to 2012 growth due to strong early year results, growth is expected to weaken further in 2013, especially in the eurozone and US. Potential global growth is now estimated around 3.8%, lower than previous estimates, due to issues like high debt levels, weak financial systems, and insufficient reforms. Downside risks to the outlook are seen as more probable than upside risks.
UK and European markets declined amid concerns about the spreading sovereign debt crisis, while US markets closed higher supported by better-than-expected retail sales data. Asian markets are trading lower today due to worries about the new Italian government's ability to address the debt crisis. Several economic indicators are scheduled for release from the UK, Eurozone and US that will provide further insight into inflation and economic growth trends.
Andrew Sentence: The "New Normal" for the global economyNuffield Trust
- The global economy is expanding but the recovery is uneven, with growth in Asia outpacing the EU and US.
- This recovery differs from previous recoveries in the 1980s and 1990s with slower growth across advanced and emerging economies.
- Asia-Pacific has become the dominant global economic region while UK growth has disappointed, averaging only 1.3% since 2009.
Economic update – Keith Wade’s presentation at the LBS Investing Strategy event London Business School
Keith Wade is Chief Economist and strategist at Schroders. He is responsible for the economics team and the house view of the world economy. Prior to joining Schroders he was a researcher at London Business School's Centre for Economic Forecasting. In the presentation he discusses the current economic cycle, the likely trajectory and investment options for pension schemes having long term outlooks but short term pressure to manage volatility.
The “Investment Strategy 2013: Peering into the Crystal Ball” event was organised by The Pensions Management Institute and London Business School’s Alumni Club. It took place on 8 October 2012.
Principais destaques:
Semana Passada:
-“O Euro é Irreversível” – Nova política monetária do banco Central Europeu;
-Zona Euro vai continuar a contrair;
-“Grécia: Vais ser expulsa da Zona Euro?”;
-“Espanha: Não tens alternativas”;
Estimativa Europa, não apresentam melhorias;
Estimativa EUA, “Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3), cada vez mais perto”;
Perspectivas para esta semana:
Europa:
Tribunal Constitucional Alemão decide sobre ESM;
Eleições Legislativas Holanda;
Decisão da Troika sobre a Grécia;
Pedido de resgate (cada vez + próximo) por parte de Espanha?
EUA:
Reunião do FED (5ª feira);
Anúncio do “Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3);
Dados macroeconómicos (Inflação, Vendas a retalho, Produção Industrial e Confiança do consumidor);
China:
Dados macroeconómicos Import/Export (indicam abrandamento);
The Lithuanian Economy, No.2, 9 March/2011Swedbank
The Lithuanian economic sentiment indicator reached its lowest point in the first half of 2009 but has been gradually improving since then, though it remains in negative territory, indicating continued pessimism. The recovery of sentiment across different sectors has been uneven - while services confidence has been positive since early 2010, construction confidence remains weak at -40 points. Consumer confidence increased in the first half of 2010 but has stalled more recently due to high inflation and slowing wage and jobs growth. Overall the economic sentiment recovery is noticeable but gradual as structural unemployment remains high and domestic demand is still subdued.
This document projects the future size of major world economies in 2050 compared to 2005. It finds that emerging economies like China and India will significantly grow their share of the global economy. By 2050, the combined economy of 7 large emerging markets (E7) may be 25% larger than the current G7 when measured in US dollars, and 75% larger when measured in purchasing power parity terms. India has the potential to become the fastest growing large economy and may be similar in size to the US by 2050. China will also continue growing rapidly to become the largest economy after the US. Other emerging economies like Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico will also see strong growth to surpass some current European powers in size.
Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides brokerage services including receiving, executing, and transmitting orders. The document discusses weekly market perspectives and does not constitute investment advice. Fincor will not accept responsibility for any use or effects of the content. It summarizes discussions on Greece requesting a delay in austerity measures, opposition from some European leaders to more delays, and economic data from Greece, Spain, Germany, France, and the Eurozone.
The key global indices closed lower as concerns grew over Europe's debt crisis. In the UK, mining stocks declined on falling metal prices and banks fell due to debt exposure. European markets also closed lower with banks and insurers down, while poor earnings further weighed on sentiment. US markets finished lower as well, dragged down by bank shares and concerns over Europe. Most Asian markets are trading lower today tracking the declines.
The document discusses Santander's 2010 results and 2011 outlook. In 2010, Santander achieved solid profit generation of EUR 8.18 billion despite challenges in mature markets. Credit quality showed improvement, with declining net non-performing loan entries and risk premiums across the group and in main business units. Diversification across geographies helped drive growth, with emerging markets increasing profits despite difficulties in Europe. Santander also strengthened its capital and liquidity positions in 2010.
Presented by Dennis R. Chrisbaum
Director, International Trade Finance
Office of International Trade
U.S. Small Business Administration
409 – 3rd Street, S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20416
Tel: 202.205.6885
E-mail: dennis.chrisbaum@sba.gov
Web: www.sba.gov/international
ETX Capital -From The Floor is a daily briefing and global market report to k...ETX_Capital
- UK and European markets closed lower as German officials expressed pessimism about a comprehensive solution to the eurozone debt crisis at an upcoming summit. Financial stocks declined.
- US markets ended mostly higher on hopes that European leaders would announce a solution to the eurozone crisis. Clean energy and bank stocks gained.
- Asian markets are trading lower ahead of the crucial EU summit, with declines in Japan due to weaker machinery orders and higher Australian unemployment.
SANTANDER CONSUMER FINANCE-SANTANDER INVESTOR DAY 2011BANCO SANTANDER
Santander Consumer Finance se mueve en niveles récord de beneficios en 2011 y continuará haciéndolo en 2012 y 2013. Presentación Magda Salarich. Santander Investor Day 2011
Swedbank is a large Swedish bank operating in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. As of 2010, it had over 1.7 trillion SEK in total assets and nearly 10 billion SEK in operating profits. It serves over 4 million private customers and over 300,000 corporate customers across its four home markets. Swedbank aims to be accessible to customers through branches, online, and phone banking and to offer a wide range of banking services including savings, loans, investments and insurance.
Purchasing Managers' Index Report July 2009Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank grundades 1820 då Sveriges första sparbank etablerades. Vårt arv är än i dag synligt i att vi är en bank för var och en och att vi fortfarande strävar efter att bidra till en hållbar utveckling av samhälle och miljö. Vi är starkt engagerade i samhället i stort och i att bidra till en hållbar samhällsutveckling. Vår svenska verksamhet är miljöcertifierad enligt ISO 14001 och miljöarbete är en integrerad del av vår verksamhet.
Swedbank grundades 1820 då Sveriges första sparbank etablerades. Vårt arv är än i dag synligt i att vi är en bank för var och en och att vi fortfarande strävar efter att bidra till en hållbar utveckling av samhälle och miljö. Vi är starkt engagerade i samhället i stort och i att bidra till en hållbar samhällsutveckling. Vår svenska verksamhet är miljöcertifierad enligt ISO 14001 och miljöarbete är en integrerad del av vår verksamhet.
The document provides an outlook on the global economy and investment markets for 2012. It notes that bond yields in major markets are at historic lows due to actions by central banks and weak economic growth. However, it warns that bond markets face potential risks in 2012. Specifically, large government debt maturing in 2012 could put pressure on yields if economies do not improve. Additionally, an unexpected rise in inflation could cause bond prices to drop sharply from current low levels. Overall the outlook suggests continued uncertainty around the Eurozone crisis and slowing global growth may lead to further volatility in financial markets in the coming year.
The Global Economy No. 8 - November 30, 2011Swedbank
The document summarizes the state of the global economy, with a focus on challenges in the eurozone. It discusses:
1) How the eurozone debt crisis is spreading from southern Europe to core countries, threatening the stability of the currency union.
2) How the inability to resolve fiscal problems in the US and eurozone crisis could lead to a global economic slowdown or recession.
3) The rising risk of recession in the eurozone as fiscal austerity, credit constraints, and declining business/consumer confidence hurt growth prospects.
- Germany and France are likely to keep Greece inside the eurozone to reduce financial volatility for their own economies, as they have significant exposure to Greek debt through their banks and private sectors.
- While an exit from the eurozone could allow Greece to devalue its currency and boost exports, it would also be extremely costly and risky due to technical difficulties in converting debts to a new currency and risk of capital flight and banking collapse.
- In the short term, bailouts may continue to be necessary, but Greece will struggle to generate enough revenue to pay back debts due to economic troubles. Long term solutions may require increased fiscal integration across eurozone countries or managed exit strategies.
Risk Management - The Role of Financial Institutions in the Current Economic ...FERMA
The panel discussed the role of financial institutions in the current economic climate. They addressed:
1) How new regulations like Solvency II and Basel III will impact institutions by increasing capital requirements and costs, but potentially help reduce systemic risk. Regulations could also inadvertently reduce long-term investing and cause pro-cyclical impacts.
2) Insurers have an opportunity to finance the real economy as banks reduce lending. Solvency II may encourage long-term investing in infrastructure and SMEs if capital rules are appropriately refined. Partnering with banks also provides investment opportunities for insurers.
This document summarizes policy measures taken in response to the financial crisis across multiple countries as of October 24, 2008. It details capital injections, new debt issuance guarantees, and other measures totaling over $2 trillion USD. Specifically, it outlines Canada's plan to provide $218 billion in guarantees for new debt issuance and purchase $25 billion in mortgage pools. It also notes discussions in the US of a loan guarantee program and plans to take stakes in regional banks.
The weekly newsletter provides an overview of global markets and the Irish and European economies. Most markets finished higher despite concerns over government deficits in Europe. The European Commission revised GDP growth estimates upwards for 2010. However, Irish bond spreads widened due to fears the government may need financial assistance. Consumer sentiment in the US fell on fears of higher taxes, while Japan intervened to weaken its currency and support exports. Oil prices declined on lower demand forecasts and a weaker euro. The outlook notes ongoing risks from bank lending and volatility but forecasts global growth of 3.6% in 2010 and 3.3% in 2011. Central banks maintain low rates but bond yields have risen in some stronger economies.
This document compares the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The EFSF was a temporary crisis response mechanism established outside of the EU framework, while the ESM is a permanent institution established within the EU framework. The ESM strengthens the no-bailout clause by allowing for possible investor bail-ins. It represents an evolution towards establishing a proper EU institution for financial stability and crisis response.
This document provides a summary of the global economic outlook and trends for retailers to consider. It discusses slowing economic growth in many leading markets in 2012. In Europe, government spending cuts and debt issues are weakening economies and confidence. In the US, uncertainty around fiscal policy is hurting markets. China is also slowing after monetary tightening. Some positives for retailers include potential margin improvements from lower commodity prices and inflation in some countries. Long term global growth prospects remain strong, especially in emerging markets.
2009. Jürgen Pfister. The global and European environment for CEE economies. ...Forum Velden
- The presentation discusses the impact of the global financial crisis on Central and Eastern European economies.
- CEE economies experienced a dramatic fall in foreign direct investment inflows and a reversal of private capital flows as a result of the crisis.
- Recovery from the recession will be slow, with an outright upswing not expected until 2011 due to weaknesses in the banking sector and rising unemployment in Europe.
- Medium-term growth prospects for CEE economies remain positive as the process of economic convergence with Western Europe continues, but growth will be dampened in the short-term by slow growth among EU trading partners.
The document discusses the following key points:
1) Recent economic data from the Eurozone indicates growing recession risks as growth slows, with the flash PMI showing continued weakness and the IFO index suffering its largest monthly decline since 2008.
2) Concerns around Greece have increased due to weaker-than-expected growth and challenges securing approval for its new bailout loan, including resolving Finland's collateral demands.
3) While eurobonds are ruled out, the EU is working on reforms to the EFSF and there are some additional steps it could take to boost market confidence, such as increasing transparency around the EFSF approval timeline.
The document discusses the shape of the global economic recovery and associated risks. It finds that while growth rebounded in 2010, the recovery is not sustainable and a downturn is expected in 2011. Europe faces significant risks from debt problems and austerity measures. The US recovery depends on weak consumer demand as households pay down debt. China also faces recession risks from a slowing property market and investment.
The document is a weekly market perspectives report from Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. dated September 10th, 2012. It provides a summary of recent economic events and data in Europe and the US, as well as previews of key events and data expected for the coming week. Specifically, it discusses the ECB's new bond-buying program, weak economic data from Europe and the US, expectations for further monetary easing from the Fed, and suggests buying shares of the Portuguese bank BES.
The Global Economy No. 9 - December 20, 2011Swedbank
The Global Economy No. 9 - December 20, 2011: Although 2011 was the year of the debt crisis, challenges still remain in 2012 – not least for the euro zone
While the world’s economic problems continue, it is essential that we provide our customers with timely information about key markets with which they may be trading or considering future trade.
Our monthly Market Monitor can also help them to understand the risk management measures we are taking as a credit insurer.
The September edition of the Market Monitor is now available on the Atradius intranet and internet. This issue, available in English, Dutch, German, French and Italian - includes coverage of the current business and insolvency environment of the following countries:
Italy – spotlighting on the ICT and food sectors
Australia – spotlighting on the mining and construction sectors
France
Switzerland
Sweden
China
India
In July 2009, the median Expected Default Frequency (EDF) of nearly all major Western economies dropped again compared to the previous month. This may suggest that the perception of risk has declined. However, at best it can only be described as a gradual reversal of the spike that followed Lehman´s failure last year.
- The Greek political situation has become more uncertain as the Prime Minister called for a confidence vote and national referendum, raising the risk of a disorderly Greek default.
- This threatens the recently agreed upon European rescue plan and debt restructuring deal, increasing volatility in the bond markets, particularly for Italy.
- In response, the authors further reduced their tactical allocation to European equities, moving the proceeds to investment grade bonds to preserve capital in a higher risk environment.
Economic and Structural Report August 2008, extract fromSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank corporate presentation April 25 2017Swedbank
This document provides an overview of Swedbank, a bank operating in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. It details that Swedbank has over 16 million inhabitants, 7.3 million private customers, and 651,000 corporate customers across its four home markets. Key figures on branches, employees and lending are also provided for each country. The document discusses Swedbank's history, vision, values, purpose and engagement in society. It outlines challenges from new customer needs, competitors, regulations and economic developments, and how Swedbank is adapting. Services provided to private and corporate customers are also summarized.
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Swedbank Corporate Presentation, October 25 2016Swedbank
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Swedbank Corporate Presentation, June 30 2016Swedbank
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Swedbank Corporate Presentation, September 2015Swedbank
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The Global Economy No. 6 - September 22, 2011
1. The Global Economy
Monthly letter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department
by Cecilia Hermansson No. 6 • 22 September 2011
A weaker economic outlook makes it even more important
to use the right tools from a shrinking toolbox
Renewed economic pessimism and increased debt worries are jeopardising
financial and political stability, especially in Europe and the US. Although the risk
of a new recession has increased, it still is not part of our main scenario.
Trying to create inflation or raising tariffs are not the right measures to address the
crisis, although such ideas are being suggested and in some cases implemented.
What are needed instead are more, and more extensive, structural reforms, and
for countries that are able, additional stimulus.
Gloominess dominates When it comes to the debt crisis drama, the
financial market flares up every time the troika of
The downturn in global stock markets during the
the ECB, EU Commission and IMF starts looking at
summer months primarily relates to two
the Greek support program to see if reforms are
phenomena: renewed economic pessimism and
being implemented. Since the Greek economy is
growing debt concerns.
developing weaker than expected and the
Despite exaggerated claims and possibly some government has been slow to execute reforms,
overly negative analyses, the hard economic data lenders are hesitating whether to approve the next
indicate that a slowdown has already begun after payment, this time of 8 billion euro.
the positive rebound in growth following the
Make note that sentiment about Ireland is much
financial crisis. These data include purchasing
more positive and its programme is progressing as
managers indexes, which have dropped down to a
planned, which is evident in the differential between
reading of 50 in a number of countries, along with
German and Irish government bonds, which has
declining exports, weaker labour and housing
declined recently, in contrast with the corresponding
markets, and consumption data from the US and
German-Greek bonds.
Europe. Moreover, GDP growth had already slowed
during the second quarter in the US and Germany. Interest rate differential against the German 10-year
government bond, percentage points
Export trends, index 100 = 2000m01
22,5
340
320 20,0
Global
300
USA 17,5
280
260 Japan 15,0
Percentage points
240 Euro Zone
220 12,5
Emerging Markets
200
Asia 10,0
180 Greece
160 7,5
140
120 5,0 Ireland
Spain
100 Portugal
80 2,5 Italy
0,0
UK France Belgium Sweden
-2,5
07 08 09 10 11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Ekonomiska sekretariatet, Swedbank AB (publ), 105 34 Stockholm, tfn 08-5859 1000
E-mail: ek.sekr@swedbank.se www.swedbank.se Ansvarig utgivare: Cecilia Hermansson, 08-5859 7720.
Magnus Alvesson, 08-5859 3341, Jörgen Kennemar, 08-5859 7730
2. The Global Economy
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department, continued
No. 6 • 22 September 2011
Comments by euro politicians that Greece may consumption had held up better than confidence
have to drop out of the currency union are doing surveys suggest. This is especially true of retail
little to help the parties involved. Statements by the sales, which have surprised on the upside. In other
Greek government that euro politicians are using words, there is a gap between what households say
Greece as an experiment certainly don’t help, they will do and what they actually do, although
either, but can be seen as part of the negotiations there is still a possibility that confidence, which is a
now under way between lenders and borrowers. leading indicator, is signalling significantly weaker
consumption going forward.
If forecasters go by what has happened and try to
average out the negative and positive events, their Considering the gloominess hanging over the US
future projections naturally will also be negative. economy, our GDP forecasts this year and next are
probably too high at around 2%. Even if the US
The problem is that this isn’t especially constructive,
since these events, if anything, are binary in the avoids a new recession, it will be hard to create the
sense that they can either happen (e.g., the euro growth needed to reach 2%, especially when the
labour market, 45 months after employment
collapses) or not.
peaked, still has a long way back and open
It makes more sense to build scenarios on unemployment exceeds 9%.
assumptions how the debt crises in the US, Japan
and especially Europe will be handled going
forward. If it is assumed that they can in fact be Toolbox: Neither higher inflation nor
handled – even at the last minute – the global protectionism will resolve the crisis
economy should be able to avoid a new recession. When the financial crisis and global recession
If the crisis cannot be managed, if political and occurred in 2008, the world's politicians and central
financial instability grows at the same time that bank governors worked together to try to fight the
future confidence declines even further among negative effects. Rate cuts, quantitative easing,
investors, companies and households, there is a banking support and fiscal stimulus were among the
risk of another recession, and this time it will be tools they used.
harder to fight off, and therefore more protracted, At this point interest rates are already as low as
since the toolbox at our disposal no longer has as they can be in the US, the UK and Japan, and
many effective tools. relatively low in the euro zone. The time for fiscal
stimulus has passed for the euro countries in crisis,
US consumer confidence (index) and
private consumption (annual % change) but could still work in the US and Germany, if the
140 7
political will can be mustered.
130 6 When the toolbox shrinks, people get nervous,
considering that the challenges haven’t gotten any
120 5
smaller. For growth countries, and even some
110 4 developed countries such as Switzerland, there is a
100 3 risk that their currencies could rise enough to hurt
them competitively. For Switzerland, this led to the
Percent
90 2
Index
dramatic decision to set a limit on the franc versus
80 1 the euro, which is now being defended with the help
70 0 of stronger confidence and the printing presses.
60 -1 For Brazil, it is more a question of capital controls,
but recently of higher customs duties on auto
50 -2
imports as well. There is a risk that other countries
40 -3 will be a little less hesitant to resort to protectionist
30 -4 measures such as higher tariffs when others have
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 already done so, which makes it unfortunate that
Source: Reuters EcoWin Brazil has chosen this route.
Among developed and highly indebted countries,
At the same time it is hard to make projections right
there have been suggestions that higher inflation
now based on confidence indicators. For example,
could stimulate demand and reduce the debt
US households and businesses were extremely
burden in real terms. Professor Kenneth Rogoff
worried this past summer when negotiations on the
recently said that it was time to “think outside the
US debt ceiling spooked the markets and S&P
box”, i.e., that we should no longer be afraid of
downgraded the US’s credit rating. Still, household
slightly higher inflation of 4-6% a year.
2 (3)
3. The Global Economy
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department, continued
No. 6 • 22 September 2011
The problem is that you can’t always decide what Structural budget deficit as a share
of GDP 2009 and 2012
inflation is going to be. For one thing, it could be
4
considerably higher, since the previous anchors
have already been dropped. For another, it can be 2
harder to pinpoint inflation when the job market is 0
weak and so many people are out of work. It’s wage ‐2
inflation, if anything, that could have a positive ‐4
effect, rather than inflation from higher commodity ‐6
prices. 2009
‐8
Furthermore, it is likely that higher inflation would ‐10
2012
be followed by higher nominal interest rates, which
‐12
reduces the positive impact of such a measure. Nor
‐14
would the effect on the debt burden be so positive.
The IMF has calculated that if inflation is 5% ‐16
annually for five years, the total debt burden would
shrink by 8-9%. So inflation would probably have to
be in the double digits to have much of an impact
on debt. Some of the structural reforms require spending,
Questions of income inequality also have to be while others are possible anyway. More efficient
considered. Wouldn't it be better to raise taxes on government is largely a question of changing
those with relatively high incomes than to raise attitudes. Southern Europe has no other alternative
inflation, which usually hits those with low incomes than to try to improve growth by implementing
the hardest. reforms that make it more competitive, e.g. in
education, labour markets, pensions, infrastructure
including IT, and public/tax administration.
Toolbox (cont.): Structural reforms are vital The time when countries could devaluate their own
It makes more sense to focus on structural reforms currencies has passed, as has the time when the
and more expansive fiscal policy if possible. interest differentials relative to Germany were
Monetary policy is less effective at this juncture, minimal and pricing was inaccurate. If the currency
since many households and businesses are less union is to survive, member-countries have to adopt
interested in borrowing when they are busy trying to more effective economic policies, fiscal coordination
clean up their balance sheets. has to improve, a single bank regulator has to be
created, and the ECB, as a central bank, has to
Structural reforms are the most important measure
eliminate uncertainty about its role as lender of last
for the PIIGS countries, which have lost competitive
resort. Then the currency union would work better,
ground in recent years due to their high cost levels
even in a crisis. This will take time, but the sooner
and often wasteful administration of public
the road is staked out, the better.
resources. Politicians in Greece, Italy, Spain and
Portugal have to convince citizens that it is worth Cecilia Hermansson
their while to pay taxes, that the money will be used
effectively and that certain (often wealthy) groups
won’t receive unfair tax breaks and exemptions.
Swedbanks Ekonomiska sekretariat
105 34 Stockholm Swedbanks Månadsbrev om den Globala Ekonomin ges ut som en service till våra kunder.
tfn 08-5859 7740 Vi tror oss ha använt tillforlitliga källor and bearbetningsrutiner vid utarbetandet av
ek.sekr@swedbank.se analyser, som redovisas in publikationen. Vi kan dock inte garantera analysernas riktighet
www.swedbank.se or fullständighet and kan inte ansvara for eventuell felaktighet or brist in grundmaterialet or
bearbetningen därav. Läsarna uppmanas att basera eventuella (investerings-)beslut även
Ansvarig utgivare på annat underlag. Varken Swedbank or dess anställda or andra medarbetare skall kunna
Cecilia Hermansson, 08-5859 7720. göras ansvariga for forlust or skada, direkt or indirekt, på grund av eventuella fel or brister
Magnus Alvesson, 08-5859 3341 som redovisas in Swedbanks Månadsbrev.
Jörgen Kennemar, 08-5859 7730
3 (3)