'''''''''''

1. The Strategy of the
United States in Syria
(Μarch 2016)
Iakovos Alhadeff

2. I would like to describe the options faced by the United States in Syria,
under the present geopolitical landscape. I am mainly talking about two
issues i.e. the issue of the Syrian Kurds and the issue of the natural gas
pipelines.
Map 1 Middle East
As far as the Kurds of Syria are concerned, things seem to be pretty simple.
The Americans have proven their willingness to support them against the
Sunni Islamists of Syria i.e. ISIS, who are supported by Turkey. The
Americans pretend they do not see that the Kurds of Syria are cooperating
with the Kurds of Turkey (PKK), and at the same time they put pressure on
the Kurds of Syria to use the Americans guns only against the Sunni
Islamists of Syria (ISIS) and not against Turkey in Turkey. Therefore the
answer is simple to this question. The Americans will keep supporting the
Kurds of Syria, unless they launch a big war against Turkey from Syria,
which is very unlikely.

3. The harder question to answer is what the Americans can do on the issue of
the natural gas pipelines. They only have 3 options on this one. The first one
is to accept the current status quo in Syria, which is what the Russians want.
Or go for 3 federal states, one Alawite, one Sunni and one Kurdish, but
which will be designed in a way that will not allow the connection between
Turkey and the Persian Gulf, in order for Russia to be happy.
Map 2
http://www.oil-price.net/cartoons/iran-iraq-syria-pipeline.jpg
The second strategy the United States can follow is to support Iran’s plans.
Iran wants to reach the Mediterranean Sea through Syria and Iraq, something
the Russians, the Turks and the Arabs of the Gulf do not want to see

4. happening. The Russians proposed in the past the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline,
which would be constructed by Gazprom, but they did it to keep the Iranians
and the Syrians happy, and not because it was an optimal solution for them.
The Russians want Russian gas and oil to run in their pipelines.
After the abolition of the economic sanctions, the Iranians do not need
Gazprom to construct their pipelines. They can also obtain financing from
the West. Therefore the United States could support Iran’s effort to reach the
Mediterranean Sea through Iraq and Syria in order to enhance their alliance.
But if the United States decide to do that they will have to fight a war with
Russia at the Syrian coasts, and actually Russia will be supported by the
Arabs of the Gulf and the Turks, who do not want to see Iran reaching the
Mediterranean Sea. Therefore this does not seem to be a good option for the
United States.
The third option the Americans have is to support, alongside the Turks and
the Qataris, the Sunni pipeline i.e. the Qatar-Turkey pipeline. The argument
will be that the pipeline will pass from the Sunni part of Syria, and it is not
fair for the Sunni majority of Syria to be ruled by the Alawite minority, and
therefore the Russians and the Iranians would have to accept the pipeline.
Map 3

5. http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4396135/sunni-shia-kurd_state_crop.jpg
However this kind of argumentation does not mean nothing, because we are
talking about major Russian and Iranian economic interests. The Russians
and the Iranians will say that Syria is one country, a that she is a traditional
ally of Russia and Iran, and she cannot be used to hurt so vital Russian and
Iranian interests. I think the Iranians would not be happy with the Federal
solution proposed by Russia for Syria, because the Sunni federal state would
block Iran’s access to the Mediterranean Sea. For the Russians it would be a
good thing if the Iranians were blocked from reaching the Mediterranean
Sea.
I am sure that the Americans like the idea of the Qatar-Turkey pipeline, but
it is very difficult for them to support it. The first problem is that the
Germans, who are US allies, have constructed with the Russians the Russo-

6. German pipelines (Nord Stream), and would not be willing to go to a war
against Russia for the sake of the Arab-Turkish pipelines.
Χάρτης 4
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45871000/gif/_45871934_pipeline
map2.gif
The second problem is that the other US ally, Israel, has already allied with
Russia against Turkey.
The third problem is that it is unlikely that the Saudis would be willing to go
to a war with Russia for the Qatar-Turkey pipeline. The Saudis are not as
rich as the Qataris in natural gas reserves, and they consume domestically all

7. the natural gas they produce. Therefore for the Saudis it is much more
important to block the Iranians in Syria and Lebanon, in order to prevent
them from exporting their oil from the Mediterranean Sea, than to push for
the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline. That means that if the Russians were to
guarantee that they will not allow Iran to reach the Mediterranean Sea, and if
the Russians were willing to help the Saudis dominate Syria and Lebanon,
where they are fighting with the Iranians for influence, the Saudis would
have no motive to go to a war with Russia to support the Qatar-Turkey
pipeline. Or even if they had the motive it is doubtful they would be willing
to take all this trouble instead of reaching a descent peaceful deal.
The fourth problem is whether the French and the English would be willing
to fight a war against Russia for the Qatar-Turkey pipeline. France is a
strong Arab ally, and is helping her allies by asking the removal of Bashar al
Assad from power. But would France really be willing to go to a war with
Russia to help her enemy Turkey? There is Qatar of course. Qatar is a
French ally and it buys billions in French weapons, and the French buy
billions in Qatari gas and oil, and at the same time the French energy
companies are working with the Qatari ones. But would the French be
willing to go to a war with Russia for Qatar? And take into account that the
Russians gave stakes to the Germans, the French, the British, the Dutch and
the Austrians in the Nord Stream 2 project.
The other day the ex President of France, Nicola Sarkozy, said that Turkey
is not good for the E.U. and whoever says Turkey should join the European
Union wants the death of the E.U. He also said that Russia is much better for
Europe.

8. Therefore given the current geopolitical landscape, the United States best
option seems to be to let Russia block the Sunni and Shia pipelines, and
simply go for a Kurdish state in Syria. To support the Sunni Pipelines would
be very nice for the United States, but it could lead to bloodshed in Syria and
the destruction of NATO.
The question is what would happen if Turkey was to cause a war with
Russia, in order to force NATO in the fight. Remember that the other day
the Foreign Minister of Luxemburg said that Turkey should not expect
NATO to support her if she chooses to go to a war with Russia in Syria.
Therefore I am sure there is no question of German support for the Turks,
and there are doubts about the French and British support. The question is
what the United States would do if Turkey was to start a war with Russia? I
really don’t know. But I do not know either whether Turkey would dare to
send the Turkish army in Syria and go to a war with Russia, without
guarantees from NATO. Erdogan and Davutoglu are risk takers, but would
they go that far? I don’t know.
To make a long story short I will say that it seems the only thing the
Americans can do in Syria is to go for a Kurdish federal state, and then
accept Russia’s terms. Of course there is the question mark of what will
happen if Turkey causes a war with Russia.