2. As you can read at the following New Europe article, Turkey decided to
allow France to use her military bases of Incirlik, in order for France to
bomb ISIS in Syria and Iraq. See “Turkey opens airspace to French jets”,
November 2015. Naturally Turkey has never allowed Russia to use her
bases.
http://neurope.eu/article/turkey-opens-airspace-to-french-jets/
That’s a very impressive diplomatic move from Turkey, whose status was
deeply hurt when the Russian President publicly accused Turkey of
supporting ISIS by buying its oil. The Russian president said that the trucks
carrying the oil to Turkey are so many that they form a moving oil pipeline.
Moreover the Russian state-owned news agency RT (Russia Today) wrote
that the companies of Tayip Erdogan’s son i.e. Bilal Erdogan, are buying oil
from ISIS.
By opening her Incirlik bases to France, Turkey can say that she helps the
war on terror. But I am sure that Turkey is not only trying to improve her
image abroad. Turkey is going for a lot more than that. Remember that in the
past Turkey has also allowed the United States to use her Incirlik bases to
bomb ISIS in order to convince the Americans to agree on a Turkish
controlled buffer zone at the Turkish-Syrian borders. Turkey needs a
corridor to Syria in order to import oil and also help the Sunni Islamist
militants she supports in Syria and Iraq. See “The Oil Fields of the Islamic
State”.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/10/19/the-oil-fields-of-the-islamic-state/
3. But it is a sure thing that the United States would let Turkey know what they
were doing in Syria and Iraq when they were using the Incirlik bases. The
United States want to support the Kurds against ISIS in Syria, and also to
prevent the oil of the Iraqi Kurds from falling under the control of ISIS, but
nevertheless for the Americans Turkey is an ally and Russia is a rival. This
is true even with the differences that arose between the Americans and the
Turks over the Kurds and due to the American-Iranian rapprochement.
Therefore Turkey is expecting the US to support her against Russia, who is a
common rival.
After all, ISIS is not anti-American. ISIS is anti-Shiite and anti-Iranian,
sometimes even anti-Saudi. But ISIS is not anti-American. It is al-Qaeda
which is very anti-Shiite but also very anti-American. And that’s normal
because there is a lot of Turkish influence over ISIS while there is a lot of
Saudi influence over al-Qaeda, and the Turkish geopolitical interests are a
lot more aligned to the American ones, at least when compared to the Saudi
ones. See “ISIS VS Al-Qaeda Part 2”.
https://iakal.wordpress.com/2015/11/15/isis-vs-al-qaeda-part-2/
Map 1
4. But let’s think about France and Turkey for a moment. In Syria, France has
supported the removal of Bashar Assad with the same, if not with more
enthusiasm than Turkey. Bashar al Assad is a Russian and Iranian ally, and
the French are selling to the Arabs of the Persian Gulf weapons worth billion
of dollars. When you sell so many weapons to the Arabs you need to offer
them some protection too from the Iranians and the Turks. Moreover the
French and the Arabs are cooperating in the energy sector. The French also
have very problematic relations with the Turks and the Iranians. The point is
that the French, together with their Arab allies, want Assad to go, and that’s
what Turkey wants too. But that’s not what Russia wants.
Moreover Turkey is in a very difficult position because there is a European
alliance against ISIS, with France, England and now Germany on board. If
all these countries start bombing ISIS in Syria and Iraq, Turkey might have a
big problem. Therefore it is a sure thing that Turkey would love to create a
5. division between Russia and France. After all the Russians and the France
might have a common problem with the Jihadists, but in Syria the French
want Assad to go and the Russians want him to stay. By downing the
Russian aircraft the Turks increased tensions with Russia and drew the US
closer to Turkey, and made it ever harder for France to work with Russia.
Now they are trying to bring France on their side too.
We should not forget that for France North Africa is a lot more important
than Syria and Iraq, while Syria and Iraq are a lot more important than North
Africa for Turkey. It is in Africa that the French army is hunting the
Jihadists, and Africa is the main source of terrorism for France. Moreover
we should not see ISIS as one thing. The ISIS of Nigeria has different
interests than the ISIS of Iraq etc. We should see the various branches of
ISIS in the same way we see NATO or any other alliance. International
branches of ISIS can work together when they have common interests, and
they cannot when they don’t. I usually refer to Turkey when I talk about
ISIS because in military terms Turkey is the strongest country of the Muslim
world, and it is a country that supports Sunni Islamist militants.
That does not mean that Turkey is the main influence over ISIS in Nigeria or
ISIS in Afghanistan. I would expect Turkey to be the major influence over
ISIS in Iraq and Syria. But it is difficult to imagine that any ISIS branch
would ignore Turkey, and dare to go completely against Turkey’s wishes,
given how important and strong Turkey is. The same is true for Saudi Arabia
and al-Qaeda. What I am trying to say is that maybe Turkey could use her
influence over the Jihadists of North Africa in order for the French to feel a
bit more comfortable when they are sleeping, and France could pay less
6. attention over the Jihadists of Syria and Iraq. In addition France has many
problems with Islamists supported by Iran in North Africa, and maybe
Turkey could help even more on this one.
Therefore Turkey could provide some help to France, given that North
Africa is less important than Syria and Iraq for Turkey, and given that Syria
and Iraq are less important than North Africa for France. After all both
Turkey and France want Assad to go, and sometimes the Turks cooperate
with the Arabs of the Persian Gulf, who are French allies, against Russia and
Iran.
Therefore we have to wait and see how France is going to respond to the
Turkish gesture, and also we have to see how far Turkey is willing to go
with France. Because we can be sure that Turkey would not be willing to let
France bomb whatever she wants and whenever she wants in Syria and Iraq.
And we also have to see how the French-Russian relations will be affected if
the tension between France and Turkey does indeed cool down. What is for
sure though is that France has a problem with the Jihadists and Turkey will
have to somehow help France with that, if she really wants to bring France
closer to her and away from Russia. France and Russia on the other hand
have the Jihadists as a common threat, and Turkey as a common rival, but in
Syria they are on the opposite sides, because France might not be on the
Turkish side, bus she is on the Arab side.
Another thing that must be taken into account is that the French know full
well that by cooperating with the Russians they are making life hard for their
American allies, because the Americans cannot support Russia against
7. Turkey, at least not for now. Moreover the Russians are much closer to
France’s main competitor in Europe i.e. Germany, and also Russia is a
Chinese ally, and the French are competing with the Chinese for the
resources of Africa. Therefore the French know that they need the
Americans, and they know that by aligning with the Russians they make life
harder for them, and that’s not good for France.
Finally we should not forget that just yesterday i.e. 29.11.2015, the
agreement between the EU and Turkey was finalized, and Turkey will
receive 3 billion euros to stop immigration flows from Turkey to Europe.
Moreover Turkish citizens will have the right to enter the EU without visas.
France must have also played a role in this agreement, and we do not know
what she might have asked from Turkey in return.
Therefore, even though the Turkish gesture to allow France to use Incirlik is
very impressive, we should better wait to see what will happen, and how the
relations between France and Turkey and between France and Russia will be
affected. But Turkey enjoys immediate benefits because she can say that
contrary to what the Russian president said she helps the war on terror.
