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www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
The 2030 Agenda and Societal Change:
from dreams to reality
Céline Charveriat
EESC meeting
22 and 23 May 2017
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
IEEP & SDGs: The contribution of a European
sustainability think tank
• Asking the right questions
• « Toute connaissance est une réponse à une
question. » (Gaston Bachelard)
• What safe and just space for Europe?
• Which national and collective European preferences
are compatible with science and universality?
• How to resolve justice issues
(generational, inequality (income, gender, race,
territorial)
• And with what ambition (inclusiveness or putting
those furthest behind first) ?
• Searching for solutions with our work on circular
economy and marine litter:
Source: Kate Raworth. Doughnut Economics. 2017
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
What ambition for Europe?
Example of stop-gap analysis based on top 5 OECD performers.
Source: Based on Bertelsmann Stiftung & SDSN. 2016. SDG
Index and Dashboard – A global report.
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
What pathway? The importance of back-casting and
scenario building
• Backcasting: “generating a desirable future, and then looking
backwards from that future to the present in order to strategize
and to plan how it could be achieved”
‒ Integrating relevant SDGs and other targets (UNFCCC mid-
century net zero emissions)
‒ Taking into account real potential for change (speed and scale)
‒ Based on latest science
‒ Taking into account the unknowns
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
The case of European agriculture
2020 2030 2050
Low carbon
and resilient EU
agriculture in
line with 1.5
degree, fair
shares and
other planetary
boundaries,
contributing to
health, food
security,
reduced
poverty and
inequality
What 2030
objectives in
line with SDGs
and mid-
century
strategy?
What costs
and what
burden
sharing?
How much
reduction in
GHG and
increased
sequestration?
What level of
activity and
employment
?
What
consumption
level and mix?
What mix of
production
models?CAP (2021-
2027)
MFF (2021-
2028)
Europe
2030
strategy
Submission
to UNFCCC
What tipping points
along the way?
Change in demand?
Market and trade
driven?
Disasters/ecological
collapse?
Technology?
Demographical
transition?
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
What does universal
mean for Europe?
The special case of OECD (and
possibly other) countries:
1) domestic targets
2) do-no-harm targets to minimize
external negative effects
 Avoid beggar thy neighbour
approaches
3) International responsibility targets
 Support others in achieving their
goals in line with “Common But
Differentiated Responsibilities and
Capacities”
Source: Climate Equity Reference Project, “Fair Shares: A Civil Society Equity Review of INDCS”, (November 2015).
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
What path interdependency? The example of meat and
dairy consumption
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
What role for research and innovation?
• Interdisciplinary research
• Key forms of innovation
‒ Technology?
‒ New supply chains (secondary raw
materials)
‒ Governance
‒ Financial (e.g. high level group on
sustainable finance)
• What enabling framework for
“meaningful” innovation?
Source: PwC, “Innovation for the Earth: Harnessing technological breakthroughs for people
and the planet”, World Economic Forum, Davos (January 2017).
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
Shifting the trillions: Mainstreaming and beyond?
• What financing gap in Europe?
• What role for public finance (local, MS,
EU), citizens (e.g. divestment) and
private finance?
• @ European Union level:
‒ Next MFF: Towards sustainability proofing?
‒ Own resources?
‒ Innovative instruments (see new ETS Just
transition fund)
‒ Role of EIB
‒ Enabling macroeconomic framework: ECB
Headlines of current MFF’s effectiveness
• Horizontal mainstreaming of sustainable
development via Article 8 of 2013 CPR and climate
20% target
• Est. 18.9% of the total EU budget for climate
action by 2020 i.e. Eur. 200 bn (EC, 2016).
• Effectiveness of spending?
‒ 57.1 % of European Agricultural Fund for
Rural Development (EAFRD) earmarked for
climate action i.e. 56 bn
‒ Lack of description of specific climate action
measures within programs
‒ Bulk of allocations have climate change as a
secondary objective
‒ Mitigation vs. adaptation confusion?
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
What governance and processes?
• Some top down?
‒ Science-based objective setting and road map: independent panel of experts
‒ Collective approach to impact on third countries (.e.g trade)
• Bottom up process of MS contributions: “ indicative national contributions”
(thereby strengthening the existing process in the HLPF) every two years.
• Deeper societal engagement: A process similar to the Paris-Lima agenda, with
pledges from local authorities, businesses and civil society, citizen engagement
Monitoring and accountability: Regular sense-making exercise with effective
feedback loop
• New toolbox: e.g. new Agenda 21 tools, just transition methodology, 3D projects
from C40, OECD better life-index; Italy’s budget indicators; Germany’s legislative
Sustainability Impact Assessments; EU guardian of future generations;
Sustainability proofing of MFF
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
How to inform the public and whose job is it?
• A big knowledge gap
‒ 36% of EU population have heard of SDGs,
with 10% only knowing what they are
(Eurobarometer, 2015)
‒ 19% of Germans knowing a lot or some
about SDGs and 27% in the UK (Globescan,
2016)
• What narrative?
‒ Difficulty in “describing the beach”
‒ More or less Europe vs. positive value-
based narrative
‒ We are doing great vs. transformation
‒ Us vs. them
Net trust in institutions (%)
Institutions
Science and
academia
48
NGOs 30
UN 15
Business 12
National
governments
1
Media -1%
Source: Globescan (2016). Average of 25 OECD and emerging
countries.
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
Sources
• AlphaBeta, “Valuing the SDG Prize in Food and Agriculture”, Business and Sustainable Development Commission (October 2016).
• Christian Kroll, “Sustainable Development Goals: Are the rich countries ready”, Guetersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung (2015).
• Climate Equity Reference Project, “Fair Shares: A Civil Society Equity Review of INDCS”, (November 2015).
• European Commission, “EU28 Highlights”, Special Eurobarometer 441 (November-December 2015).
• European Commission, “Next steps for a sustainable European future: European action for sustainability”, COM(2016) 739 final
(Strasbourg, 22 November 2016).
• Eurostat, “Sustainable development in the European Union: A Statistical Glance from the Viewpoint of the UN SDGs”, (2016).
• Globescan, “Average of 25 OECD and emerging countries”, (2016).
• Globescan, “Awareness of SDGs vs MDGs: How engaged are global citizens?” (presented at the OECD DevCom Annual Meeting, 9
November 2016).
• Guido Schmidt-Traub, “Implementing the SDGs: Are European countries ready?”, UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network
(presented at the EESC Conference ‘Next steps for a sustainable European future - Reforming Europe, implementing SDGs’, Brussels,
Belgium 7 July 2016).
• Ingeborg Niestroy, “How are we getting ready? The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in the EU and its Member States: Analysis
and Action so far”, German Development Institute (9/2016).
• Kate Raworth, “Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist”, Chelsea Green Publishing (2017).
• PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, “Innovation for the Earth: Harnessing technological breakthroughs for people and the planet”, World
Economic Forum, Davos (January 2017).
• Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the Bertelsmann Stiftung, “SDG Index and Dashboards – Global Report” (2016).
www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu
Thank you for your attention !
ccharveriat@ieep.eu

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The 2030 Agenda and Societal Change in Europe

  • 1. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu The 2030 Agenda and Societal Change: from dreams to reality Céline Charveriat EESC meeting 22 and 23 May 2017
  • 2. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu IEEP & SDGs: The contribution of a European sustainability think tank • Asking the right questions • « Toute connaissance est une réponse à une question. » (Gaston Bachelard) • What safe and just space for Europe? • Which national and collective European preferences are compatible with science and universality? • How to resolve justice issues (generational, inequality (income, gender, race, territorial) • And with what ambition (inclusiveness or putting those furthest behind first) ? • Searching for solutions with our work on circular economy and marine litter: Source: Kate Raworth. Doughnut Economics. 2017
  • 3. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu What ambition for Europe? Example of stop-gap analysis based on top 5 OECD performers. Source: Based on Bertelsmann Stiftung & SDSN. 2016. SDG Index and Dashboard – A global report.
  • 4. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu What pathway? The importance of back-casting and scenario building • Backcasting: “generating a desirable future, and then looking backwards from that future to the present in order to strategize and to plan how it could be achieved” ‒ Integrating relevant SDGs and other targets (UNFCCC mid- century net zero emissions) ‒ Taking into account real potential for change (speed and scale) ‒ Based on latest science ‒ Taking into account the unknowns
  • 5. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu The case of European agriculture 2020 2030 2050 Low carbon and resilient EU agriculture in line with 1.5 degree, fair shares and other planetary boundaries, contributing to health, food security, reduced poverty and inequality What 2030 objectives in line with SDGs and mid- century strategy? What costs and what burden sharing? How much reduction in GHG and increased sequestration? What level of activity and employment ? What consumption level and mix? What mix of production models?CAP (2021- 2027) MFF (2021- 2028) Europe 2030 strategy Submission to UNFCCC What tipping points along the way? Change in demand? Market and trade driven? Disasters/ecological collapse? Technology? Demographical transition?
  • 6. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu What does universal mean for Europe? The special case of OECD (and possibly other) countries: 1) domestic targets 2) do-no-harm targets to minimize external negative effects  Avoid beggar thy neighbour approaches 3) International responsibility targets  Support others in achieving their goals in line with “Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Capacities” Source: Climate Equity Reference Project, “Fair Shares: A Civil Society Equity Review of INDCS”, (November 2015).
  • 7. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu What path interdependency? The example of meat and dairy consumption
  • 8. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu What role for research and innovation? • Interdisciplinary research • Key forms of innovation ‒ Technology? ‒ New supply chains (secondary raw materials) ‒ Governance ‒ Financial (e.g. high level group on sustainable finance) • What enabling framework for “meaningful” innovation? Source: PwC, “Innovation for the Earth: Harnessing technological breakthroughs for people and the planet”, World Economic Forum, Davos (January 2017).
  • 9. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu Shifting the trillions: Mainstreaming and beyond? • What financing gap in Europe? • What role for public finance (local, MS, EU), citizens (e.g. divestment) and private finance? • @ European Union level: ‒ Next MFF: Towards sustainability proofing? ‒ Own resources? ‒ Innovative instruments (see new ETS Just transition fund) ‒ Role of EIB ‒ Enabling macroeconomic framework: ECB Headlines of current MFF’s effectiveness • Horizontal mainstreaming of sustainable development via Article 8 of 2013 CPR and climate 20% target • Est. 18.9% of the total EU budget for climate action by 2020 i.e. Eur. 200 bn (EC, 2016). • Effectiveness of spending? ‒ 57.1 % of European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) earmarked for climate action i.e. 56 bn ‒ Lack of description of specific climate action measures within programs ‒ Bulk of allocations have climate change as a secondary objective ‒ Mitigation vs. adaptation confusion?
  • 10. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu What governance and processes? • Some top down? ‒ Science-based objective setting and road map: independent panel of experts ‒ Collective approach to impact on third countries (.e.g trade) • Bottom up process of MS contributions: “ indicative national contributions” (thereby strengthening the existing process in the HLPF) every two years. • Deeper societal engagement: A process similar to the Paris-Lima agenda, with pledges from local authorities, businesses and civil society, citizen engagement Monitoring and accountability: Regular sense-making exercise with effective feedback loop • New toolbox: e.g. new Agenda 21 tools, just transition methodology, 3D projects from C40, OECD better life-index; Italy’s budget indicators; Germany’s legislative Sustainability Impact Assessments; EU guardian of future generations; Sustainability proofing of MFF
  • 11. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu How to inform the public and whose job is it? • A big knowledge gap ‒ 36% of EU population have heard of SDGs, with 10% only knowing what they are (Eurobarometer, 2015) ‒ 19% of Germans knowing a lot or some about SDGs and 27% in the UK (Globescan, 2016) • What narrative? ‒ Difficulty in “describing the beach” ‒ More or less Europe vs. positive value- based narrative ‒ We are doing great vs. transformation ‒ Us vs. them Net trust in institutions (%) Institutions Science and academia 48 NGOs 30 UN 15 Business 12 National governments 1 Media -1% Source: Globescan (2016). Average of 25 OECD and emerging countries.
  • 12. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu Sources • AlphaBeta, “Valuing the SDG Prize in Food and Agriculture”, Business and Sustainable Development Commission (October 2016). • Christian Kroll, “Sustainable Development Goals: Are the rich countries ready”, Guetersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung (2015). • Climate Equity Reference Project, “Fair Shares: A Civil Society Equity Review of INDCS”, (November 2015). • European Commission, “EU28 Highlights”, Special Eurobarometer 441 (November-December 2015). • European Commission, “Next steps for a sustainable European future: European action for sustainability”, COM(2016) 739 final (Strasbourg, 22 November 2016). • Eurostat, “Sustainable development in the European Union: A Statistical Glance from the Viewpoint of the UN SDGs”, (2016). • Globescan, “Average of 25 OECD and emerging countries”, (2016). • Globescan, “Awareness of SDGs vs MDGs: How engaged are global citizens?” (presented at the OECD DevCom Annual Meeting, 9 November 2016). • Guido Schmidt-Traub, “Implementing the SDGs: Are European countries ready?”, UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (presented at the EESC Conference ‘Next steps for a sustainable European future - Reforming Europe, implementing SDGs’, Brussels, Belgium 7 July 2016). • Ingeborg Niestroy, “How are we getting ready? The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in the EU and its Member States: Analysis and Action so far”, German Development Institute (9/2016). • Kate Raworth, “Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist”, Chelsea Green Publishing (2017). • PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, “Innovation for the Earth: Harnessing technological breakthroughs for people and the planet”, World Economic Forum, Davos (January 2017). • Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the Bertelsmann Stiftung, “SDG Index and Dashboards – Global Report” (2016).
  • 13. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu Thank you for your attention ! ccharveriat@ieep.eu