The document summarizes issues related to a potential free trade agreement between Thailand and the US. While the US sees benefits like increased trade and investment, the evidence presented suggests FTAs do not necessarily guarantee improved market access or benefits for smaller partners. Thailand needs to consider costs like constraints on policy space and pressure to accept stricter rules in areas like intellectual property, environment and investment that developed countries have failed to achieve multilaterally. On balance, the gains from the agreement appear doubtful compared to the potential costs.

1. US-Thailand Free Trade Agreement Market Access Issues Parthapratim Pal Jayati Ghosh

5. The ASEAN-USA Matrix Country FTA TIFA WTO GSP Brunei Yes Yes Not Eligible Burma Yes Not Eligible Cambodia Yes Yes Indonesia Yes Yes Yes Laos Negotiating Accession Not Eligible Malaysia Launched Yes Not eligible Singapore Yes Yes Yes Not Eligible Thailand Negotiating Yes Yes Yes Vietnam Negotiating Accession Not Eligible ASEAN-10 Negotiating

6. Export Composition of Thailand (Exports to USA, 2005) Source: http://censtats.census.gov/ 1.59 Vegetables and fruit '05' 1.62 Footwear '85' 1.71 Textile yarn, fabrics, made0up articles, n.e.s., and related products '65' 1.83 Crude rubber (including synthetic and reclaimed) '23' 1.99 General industrial machinery and equipment, n.e.s., and machine parts, n.e.s. '74' 2.49 Furniture and parts thereof; bedding, mattresses, mattress supports, cushions and similar stuffed furnishings '82' 2.62 Manufactures of metals, n.e.s. '69' 2.79 Nonmetallic mineral manufactures, n.e.s. '66' 7.32 Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s., and electrical parts thereof (including nonelectrical counterparts of household type, n.e.s.) '77' 8.27 Fish (not marine mammals), crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic invertebrates, and preparations thereof '03' 8.45 Miscellaneous manufactured articles, n.e.s. '89' 12.12 Articles of apparel and clothing accessories '84' 15.18 Office machines and automatic data processing machines '75' 23.48 Telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment '76' Share Description SITC

8. Thailand’s Top Exports and its main Competitors: Two Examples 100.00 104125747 "World" 96.51 100490262 Sub-Total 0.73 758433 "Germany" 15 0.73 761151 "Israel" 14 0.74 772537 "United Kingdom" 13 0.76 792366 "Brazil" 12 0.83 864048 "Singapore" 11 1.14 1189430 "Indonesia" 10 1.30 1348671 "Sweden" 9 3.95 4113298 "Canada" 8 3.96 4122458 "Taiwan" 7 4.13 4305259 "Thailand" 6 7.98 8306082 "Korea" 5 9.27 9648427 "Japan" 4 9.96 10376004 "Malaysia" 3 18.13 18882743 "Mexico" 2 32.89 34249355 "China" 1 Share Imports (000$) Country Name Rank 2005 data Rank 1 SITC 76 100.00 98595823 "World" 96.83 95468596 Sub-Total 0.45 446282 "Indonesia" 15 0.80 784102 "Hungary" 14 0.80 788333 "Germany" 13 0.97 957189 "United Kingdom" 12 1.21 1188127 "Ireland" 11 1.21 1195925 "Philippines" 10 2.00 1967422 "Canada" 9 2.82 2782772 "Thailand" 8 3.22 3178409 "Korea" 7 4.95 4880372 "Taiwan" 6 6.45 6357025 "Singapore" 5 7.18 7077734 "Mexico" 4 9.04 8913083 "Japan" 3 12.89 12708860 "Malaysia" 2 42.84 42242961 "China" 1 Share Imports (000 $) Country Name Rank 2005 data Rank 2 SITC 75

9. Canada Market Share Source: http://censtats.census.gov/

10. Market Share Mexico Source: http://censtats.census.gov/

11. Australia Market Share Source: http://censtats.census.gov/

12. Some Latin American Partners Have Done Better:

13. But some Non-partners have done even better!!

14. Performance of Some ASEAN Countries Source: http://censtats.census.gov/

19. Tariff Structure of USA a Chapters 1-97, at 8-digit level, excluding in-quota tariff lines. b Tariff quotas are referred to as "tariff rate quotas" in U.S. regulations. c Domestic tariff peaks are defined as those exceeding three times the overall average applied rate. d International tariff peaks are defined as those exceeding 15%. e Two lines applying to crude petroleum are not bound Source: Trade Policy Review of USA, WTO 2006 1998 2000 2002 2004 Total number of tariff lines a 9,997 10,001 10,297 10,304 Non- ad valorem tariffs (% of all tariff lines) 14.0 12.4 12.2 10.6 Non- ad valorem with no AVEs (% of all tariff lines) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tariff quotas (% of all tariff lines) b 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 Duty-free tariff lines (% of all tariff lines) 18.6 31.5 31.2 37.7 Dutiable lines tariff average rate (%) 7.2 8.0 7.4 7.8 Domestic tariff "peaks" (% of all tariff lines) c 4.9 5.3 5.6 7.1 International tariff "peaks" (% of all tariff lines) d 7.7 7.0 6.6 5.5 Bound tariff lines (% of all tariff lines) 100.0 e 100.0 e 100.0 e 100.0 e

20. Preference Margin for Singapore FTA (MFN- Preferential Tariff Rate) Source: Calculated from US TPR 2006, WTO

25. Thank You