This document summarizes a presentation about using technology to evaluate litigation risk. It introduces the presenters: Dr. Donald Vinson, founder of a trial consulting firm; Dr. Katie Vinson, a social psychologist who predicts jury behavior; and Benjamin Kingston, an attorney who manages litigation funding. The presentation emphasizes that early case assessment is crucial for determining litigation strategy and avoiding costly mistakes. However, traditional assessments by attorneys are often inaccurate. The presentation proposes using statistical analysis of real and surrogate juror data combined with case characteristics in a "black box" algorithm to provide more accurate early case evaluations.

1. Technology to Evaluate
Litigation Risk
Presented By:
Dr. Donald E. Vinson
Dr. Katie V. Vinson
Benjamin D. Kingston, Esq.

2. Presenter Backgrounds
Dr. Donald E. Vinson – Chairman and CEO, Vinson Resolution Management
Dr. Donald E. Vinson is widely considered the "founding father" of the trial consulting field, and is internationally
recognized as the world’s leading expert in the field. He has founded three successful companies in the space, two of
which were acquired by NYSE-listed corporations (he currently serves as Chairman of the third). Dr. Vinson has
spent the last 35 years providing valuable insights and strategic recommendations to trial attorneys about juror
behavior, and his record of success is unparalleled. He has consulted on hundreds of civil and criminal trials,
including Pennzoil v. Texaco, the Oklahoma City bombing case, the DuPont Plaza Hotel and MGM Grand Hotel fires,
Dalkon Shield litigation, the O.J. Simpson murder trial, and the World Trade Center insurance case.
Katherine V. Vinson, Ph.D. – Vice President, Litigation Sciences
Dr. Katherine (“Katie”) Vinson is a Social Psychologist with a specialty in Juror Behavior and Decision Making. Her
expertise is based on quantitative measures of juror attitudes, experiences, and behaviors to predict verdicts and
damage awards. This work involves sophisticated mathematical and statistical analysis to develop jury prediction
models which have been successfully employed in major commercial cases.
Benjamin D. Kingston, Esq. – Director of Legal Services
Mr. Benjamin (“Ben”) Kingston is an experienced litigation attorney in both the consumer and commercial law
sectors. As the Director of Legal Services at Vinson Resolution Management (VRM), Ben manages the underwriting
of commercial claims being considered for funding, and monitors funded lawsuits through their resolution. He also
works with VRM’s clients and their handling attorneys to structure funding arrangements that align interests by
rewarding efficiency and efficacy during litigation

3. Early Case Assessment (ECA) and its Importance
 Litigation is risky, time consuming and expensive
 Although only about 5% of cases are tried, every ECA
should presume trial is strong possibility
 Accurate ECA is most crucial variable in decisions
whether to litigate or settle

4. Early Case Assessment (ECA) and its Importance
 ECA provides a roadmap calculated to accomplish a
client’s objectives
 ECA involves risk assessment coupled with strategic
budgeting
 Careful and accurate ECA and budgeting helps avoid
Pyrrhic victory

5. Traditional Early Case Assessment
 Sufficient information for ECA is typically available for
 Plaintiffs before case is filed
 Defendants within 60-90 days after filing/service

6. Traditional Early Case Assessment
 Traditional ECA typically includes
 Analysis of relevant law
 Analysis of supportive and unsupportive facts
 Analysis venue and judge
 Percentage estimates based on various potential outcomes
 Conclusions and recommendations

7. Inaccuracies in Traditional Early Case Assessment
 Study: 68% of lawyers’ ECAs are inaccurate
 44% were overconfident
 24% were under-confident
 Attorneys are human – it’s natural to overestimate
abilities on tasks, particularly when advocating
 Don’t want clients to equate tempered optimism with
lack of confidence or zeal

8. Inaccuracies in Traditional Early Case Assessment
 Attorneys wish and strive for a good outcome, however
 While this is a strength for zealous advocacy
 It is also a weakness when it skews the attorney’s ability to predict
 Inaccurate predictions can be costly
 Overconfidence = rejecting reasonable settlements
 Under-confidence = accepting low settlements
 Most frequently attorneys and clients inaccurately predict
jury trial outcomes
 Attorneys often rely on past outcomes of like cases
 And make educated guesses on how jurors will weigh the evidence
and apply the law

9. Historical Case Examples

11. The Trial of Lizzie Borden
1893

12. The O.J. Simpson Case

13. “OK” To Use Physical Force on Family Member
The Jury
Yes
42%
No
58%

14. Self, Family Member or Friend Victim of Domestic Violence
The Jury
Yes
33%
No
67%

15. Negative Experience with Police
The Jury
Yes
50%
No
50%

16. O.J. Unlikely to Murder Because He Excelled at Football
The Jury
Yes
75%
No
25%

18. Rather Jurors CBS Jurors
Dan Rather V. CBS
Real-Time Response System

19. Plaintiffs V. Vivendi
Bronx Jurors
Charles M.
31-35 Male
Single African-American
Some High School
Chef
Julio V.
31-35 Male
Married Hispanic
High School Degree
Auto Installer
Deny M.
36-40 Male
Married Hispanic
High School Degree
Stock Clerk

20. JURY PSYCHOLOGY 101

21. ATTITUDES, VALUES & BELIEFS

22. ATTITUDE CHANGE

23. Attitude Change
 Reject
 Distort
 Minimize Importance
 Contrive
 73.6%of all Statistics are Made Up
 Change Attitude

24. PERCEPTION

25. Gestalt Psychology
 What is Gestalt Psychology
 The gestalt effect is the capability of our brain to
generate whole forms, particularly with respect to
the visual recognition of global figures instead of
just collections of simpler and unrelated elements
(points, lines, curves...).

26. Gestalt Psychology

27. STAD

28. STAD

29. Evaluation ProtocolTM

30.  Evaluate merits and potential case outcome
Expert
Judges
Black Box
Case
Evaluation
Score
Evaluation Protocol
Jurors
Lawyers

31. Lawyer, Judge, and Expert Evaluation Processes
Statistical Data

32. Juror Evaluation Process
 Juror Panel
 Demographics
 Psychological attitudes
 Political attitudes
 Verdict orientation
 Predisposition to award damages
“Good”
Jurors
“Bad” Jurors

33. Juror Evaluation Processes
Statistical Data

34. Sample Jury Panel Video

35. Online Survey
https://survey.co1.qualtrics.com/SE/?SID=SV_0rG2QiEAEDm5dMp

36. Black Box
Algorithm

37. Black Box
Case
Characteristics

38. Case Characteristics
 Case Facts
 Strength of evidence
 Case complexity
 Element of Litigation
 Potential for summary judgment
 Potential of defendant waging vigorous defense
 Characteristics of Litigants
 Physical attractiveness of witness
 Industry of litigants

39. Black Box
Case
Characteristics
Importance of
Characteristics

40. Importance of Case Characteristics
Uncontradicted evidence as to an
element of proof at trial
The quantitative value of the
trade secret information

41. Evaluation Score
Lawyers, Judges & Experts
Surrogate Jurors
Black Box

42. Thank You!
Vinson Resolution Management
For More Information about
Vinson Resolution Management
visit www.vinres.com
or call 310-531-1700